CPC’s “Top Ten” Problems/Needs(draft – revised Jan 2006 – not prioritized)

Climate Model Prediction – acceleration, limitations

Multi-Model Ensembles - for CFS, GFDL, NASA, NCAR ?

Reanalysis – an Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

- Reforecasting; RNR

AO, NAO, PNA, MJO - sub-seasonal & seasonal predictability

Economic Benefits - studies of climate prediction products

GPRA - better or additional (seasonal?) performance measure

- Simpler (e.g. ENSO forecasts 4x year)

Drought (Water) Outlooks - physically based, verifiable

Decadal Trends - the physical basis for them

-We haven’t solved the problem of what the climatology is today?

Warm-Season Precipitation - outlook tools/skill  

-NAME

Atmospheric Responses – neutral/weak ENSO; beyond ENSO  

Downscaling - hierarchies of techniques

-5 km

Credible Climatologies – extremes, mesoscale, storms, …

-PDF’s

-How well does CFS (ensembles) reproduce the statistics of weather found in nature?