creating effective public policy for managing advanced nanotechnology mike treder, executive...

Creating Effective Public Policy for

Managing Advanced Nanotechnology

Creating Effective Public Policy for

Managing Advanced Nanotechnology

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

February 10, 2005 Expert Group Meeting on Nanotechnology Trieste, Italy

February 10, 2005 Expert Group Meeting on Nanotechnology Trieste, Italy

© 2005 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

IntroductionIntroductionFrom the Aide-Mémoire prepared for this Expert Group Meeting:

“…in this moment there is no global effort to promote awareness of the potential applications of nanotechnology for development, to create new regulatory regimes (or build upon existing ones) for managing nanotechnology’s associated risks and for promoting global public goods, to provide a platform for constructive dialogue among all stakeholders including representatives from government, industry, academia and local populations.”

My presentation will address this critical lack and will propose some ameliorating strategies.


OverviewOverview

Consumer Products of Nanotechnology The future could hold more than just better tennis balls

Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing Capabilities, benefits, and risks

Three Systems of Action Different principles for different problems

Thirty Essential Studies Unfortunately, more questions than answers

NanoFora Encompassing a range of stakeholders


Promises of Progress…Promises of Progress…

Defeat poverty

End starvation and disease

Open up outer space

Expand human capacities

Lengthen our lifespans


…and Unprecedented Risks …and Unprecedented Risks

Environmental and health dangers

Massive job displacement

Economic and social disruption

Constant intrusive surveillance

Unstable arms race


This is Nanotechnology?This is Nanotechnology?

(According to Forbes)

High-Performance Ski Wax

Breathable Waterproof Ski Jacket

High-Tech Tennis Rackets And Balls

Deep-Penetrating Skin Cream

Wrinkle-Resistant, Stain-Repellent Threads


Nanotechnology could be… Nanotechnology could be… Not just new products — a new means of

production

Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation

Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping

Affecting all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology

Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity

Impacts crossing borders — global transformation


The Feynman VisionThe Feynman Vision

I want to build a billion tiny factories, models of each other, which are manufacturing simultaneously.

— Nobel prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman


A Billion Tiny FactoriesA Billion Tiny Factories

Inner Workings of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)


The NanofactoryThe Nanofactory

Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units

Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products

General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format

Extremely advanced products with compact functionality

Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself

“Design of a Primitive Nanofactory”

By Chris Phoenix Director of Research, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

http://www.jetpress.org/volume13/Nanofactory.htm

http://www.jetpress.org/volume13/Nanofactory.htm


Artist's Conception of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)

The NanofactoryThe Nanofactory


Developing a NanofactoryDeveloping a Nanofactory

Three milestones:

1 Basic molecular manufacturing: The precise formation of molecular structures under direct mechanical control.

2 Exponential molecular manufacturing: The use of nanoscale molecular manufacturing tools to build more of themselves, making it possible to produce large quantities of product.

3 Integrated molecular manufacturing: The integration of tools into massively parallel structures, nanofactories, that can combine their outputs into large products .


Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler

Jolt to the SystemJolt to the System

The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be a jolt to the system.


The ability to build

anything we can design,

by manipulating

molecules under direct

computer control, will

be a jolt to the system.

A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to

ecological, economic, political, and social systems

— on a local, national, and global scale.

Artist's Conception of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios (3D Animation, Game Development)

Jolt to the SystemJolt to the System


The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the

Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but

with all that change compressed into just a few years.

Change is ComingChange is Coming


Societal ImplicationsSocietal Implications

Rapid design, prototype, refinement

Local manufacturing from local materials

High-performance products

Self-contained, automated factories

Exponential manufacturing

Factories become as cheap as any product

Products become as cheap as raw materials

(…as cheap to build, not necessarily to buy…)


Exponential Doubling Exponential Doubling

DAY NANOFACTORIES

1 1 3 2 5 4 7 8 9 16

11 32 13 64 15 128 17 256 19 512 21 1,024 Thousand

Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time


Exponential Doubling Exponential Doubling

DAY NANOFACTORIES21 1,024 Thousand25 4,096 29 16,384 33 65,536 37 262,144 41 1,048,576 Million45 4,194,304 49 16,777,216 53 67,108,864 57 268,435,456 61 1,073,741,824 Billion

Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time


Benefits + RisksBenefits + Risks

An automated, self-contained factory could provide...An automated, self-contained factory could provide...




Lifesaving medical Lifesaving medical robotsrobots oror Untraceable weapons of Untraceable weapons of

mass destructionmass destruction






Networked computers for Networked computers for everyone in the worldeveryone in the world oror

Networked cameras so Networked cameras so governments can watch governments can watch

our every move our every move









Trillions of dollars of Trillions of dollars of abundanceabundance oror A vicious scramble to A vicious scramble to

own everythingown everything









Trillions of dollars of Trillions of dollars of abundanceabundance oror A vicious scramble to A vicious scramble to

own everythingown everything

Rapid invention of Rapid invention of wondrous productswondrous products oror Weapons development fast enough Weapons development fast enough

to destabilize any arms raceto destabilize any arms race




Lifesaving medical Lifesaving medical robotsrobots

ANDANDUntraceable weapons of Untraceable weapons of


Networked computers for Networked computers for everyone in the worldeveryone in the world

ANDANDNetworked cameras so Networked cameras so

governments can watch governments can watch our every move our every move

Trillions of dollars of Trillions of dollars of abundanceabundance ANDAND

A vicious scramble to A vicious scramble to own everythingown everything

Rapid invention of Rapid invention of wondrous productswondrous products ANDAND

Weapons development fast enough Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms raceto destabilize any arms race


Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity…

Earth on the BrinkEarth on the Brink


…and never before have the risks been so great.

Earth on the BrinkEarth on the Brink

Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity…


OverviewOverview

Consumer Products of Nanotechnology The future holds more than just better tennis balls

Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing Capabilities, benefits, and risks


Thirty Essential Studies Unfortunately, more questions than answers

NanoFora Encompassing a range of stakeholders


Systems of ActionSystems of Action

"Guardian" PrinciplesSuitable for zero-sum or negative-sum situations

Deceive for the sake of the task Respect hierarchy

Take vengeance Be exclusive

Shun trading Dispense largesse

Exert prowess Be ostentatious

Be fatalistic Make rich use of leisure

Be obedient and disciplined Show fortitude

Adhere to tradition Treasure honor



"Commercial" PrinciplesSuitable for positive-sum situations

Be honest Collaborate easily with strangers

Be thrifty Use initiative and enterprise

Compete Be industrious

Respect contracts Invest for productive purposes

Shun force Be optimistic

Promote comfort and convenience Be efficient

Be open to inventiveness Come to voluntary agreements


Forming Public PolicyForming Public Policy

Guardian Principles Commercial Principles

To solve problems related to the minimizing of harm (theft, invasion)

To solve problems related to maximizing wealth (trade, invention)

Appropriate for governments and police forces, organizations that defend laws and land

Appropriate for business and trade, which seek to increase value to all parties involved

From Systems of Survival, by Jane Jacobs



Guardian Principles

Commercial Principles

? ? ?

Zero-sum or negative-sum situations

Positive-sum situations Unlimited-sum situations

GOAL: Maintain and protect status quo

GOAL: Improve resource use dynamically





Guardian Principles

Commercial Principles

Information Principles

Zero-sum or negative-sum situations

Positive-sum situations Unlimited-sum situations

GOAL: Maintain and protect status quo

GOAL: Improve resource use dynamically

GOAL: Spread innovation generously



Appropriate for the production and copying of freely shared information

(Creative Commons, Open Source, Free Software)


Problems AheadProblems Ahead

Information Principles now applied not just to information, but to physical products

Substantial new security (Guardian) issues

Massively disruptive economic (Commercial) impacts


Worldwide NetworkWorldwide Network

Molecular Manufacturing

Infrastructure

Guardians Regulate usage

Commerce Charge tolls

Information Groups

Enhance infrastructure & products


Worldwide NetworkWorldwide Network

Molecular Manufacturing

Infrastructure

Guardians Regulate usage

Commerce Charge tolls

Information Groups

Enhance infrastructure & products

(See www.crnano.org/systems.htm for more information)


- Intellectual property violations

- Manufacture of dangerous products

- Makes black market inevitable

- Intellectual property violations

- Manufacture of dangerous products

- Removes incentive for black market

- Prevents alleviation of human suffering

- Hinders creation of prosperity

- Makes black market inevitable

- Allows alleviation of human suffering

- Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity

- Reduces incentive for black market

Nanofactory Control OptionsNanofactory Control OptionsT

E C

H N

I C

A L

R E

S T

R I

C T

I O

N S

DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS

Loose

Loose

Tight

Tight


CRN’s ProposalCRN’s Proposal

1. Create a Molecular Manufacturing Infrastructure

Worldwide network of restricted nanofactories

Maximize benefits

Minimize risks


CRN’s ProposalCRN’s Proposal

2. Design Decision-Making Structure In Advance

Collaborative international administrative body

Must have global scope

Manage conflict

Balance interests of all three “action” groups


What is Needed NowWhat is Needed Now

Awareness of the issues

Technical research

Policy research

New networks


Thirty Essential Studies Thirty Essential Studies

CRNCRN

Thirty Essential Studies

Chris Phoenix, Director of Research

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA

CRNCRN

Thirty Essential Studies

Chris Phoenix, Director of Research

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA


Unanswered Questions Unanswered Questions

Who will own the technology for molecular manufacturing?

Will it be heavily restricted, or widely available?

What will it do to the gap between rich and poor?

What will be the impact of rapid advances in medical research, diagnosis, and treatment?

How can dangerous weapons be controlled, and perilous arms races be prevented?

What happens to privacy when powerful surveillance devices are smaller than a mosquito, just as mobile, and so cheap that they are virtually everywhere?


Thirty Essential Studies Thirty Essential Studies

Section 1: Technical and Foundational

Section 2: Capabilities of Molecular Manufacturing

Technologies

Section 3: Development of Molecular Manufacturing Technologies

Section 4: Product Performance

Section 5: Policies and Policymaking


A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology —

a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies,

their effects, and what to do about them.

www.Wise-Nano.orgwww.Wise-Nano.org


The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a diverse collection of people and organizations.

No single approach will solve all problems or address all needs.

Issues of multiple stakeholders and world regions (North-South) must be represented.

Preparing SolutionsPreparing Solutions


The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand an unprecedented collaboration of leaders in science, technology, business, government, and NGOs.

It will require participation from people of many nations, cultures, languages, and belief systems.

Preparing SolutionsPreparing Solutions


NanoForaNanoFora Nanotechnology will affect a broad range of

stakeholders

Individual and group goals are diverse and possibly incompatible

Bad policies may multiply rather than cancel bad policy effects

Evaluate and compare policy options from multiple stakeholder group perspectives

Create comprehensive and stable plans to maximize benefits and minimize risks


META Mediation

Reporting

OVERVIEWValues

System

Technology

STAKEHOLDERS

Social Justice

Surveillance & Privacy

Arms Control & Geopolitics

Sustainable Development

Medical Ethics & Research

Intellectual Property

Knowledge Management

Ecological Remediation

Policing & Criminology

Business & Trade

NanoFora Project StructureNanoFora Project Structure


NanoForaNanoFora

Sound and effective decision-making for nanotechnology public policy

A stable structure for finding policy options that encompasses a range of stakeholders and multiple systems of action


SummarySummary

Consumer Products of Nanotechnology A revolution in manufacturing is coming

Analysis of Molecular Manufacturing Wonderful benefits and severe risks


Thirty Essential Studies Many more questions than answers

NanoFora A project to engage stakeholder participation


We must develop common understanding, create lines of communication, and build a stable structure to bridge the cliffs and pass safely through the transition into the nano era.

Building BridgesBuilding Bridges

www.CRNano.org

www.CRNano.org

creating effective public policy for managing advanced nanotechnology mike treder, executive...

Documents

nanotechnology trieste

executive director center

game development slide

range of stakeholders

new products

advanced products

expert group meeting

global effort