credit markets update - kpmg corporate finance llc · 2020-02-26 · we are pleased to provide this...

16
Credit Markets Update March 31, 2018

Upload: others

Post on 22-Apr-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

Credit Markets Update March 31, 2018

Page 2: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

2

Credit Markets Update as of March 31, 2018We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending March 31, 2018 to our clients and friends:

— The fundamental backdrop for the overall credit market remained volatile in the first quarter, as rising interest rates triggered pain for some fixed income investors. However, leveraged loan volume remained strong with terms continuing to favor issuers, countervailed by bonds weaker performance

— Newly issued leveraged loan volume showed a rise of 28.0% in the first quarter of 2018 over the last quarter, standing at $167 billion after three consecutive quarterly declines in 2017

— New-issue covenant-lite loan volume decreased by 13.8% to $102 billion in the first quarter of 2018 from $119 billion in the corresponding quarter of previous year

— Non-investment grade B rated first lien pro rata and institutional syndicated leveraged loans remain attractive to investors with spread of L+346 and L+344, respectively, in the first quarter of 2018

— Number of LBO transactions and volume rose by 10.3% and 7.0% from the first quarter of 2017 to reach 43 and $54 billion, respectively, in the first quarter of 2018. First quarter transactions and volume numbers are up 95.5% and 87.6%, respectively, over the last quarter

— Purchase price multiples for middle market LBOs increased to 10.5x in the first quarter of 2018 from 8.3x in the corresponding quarter of last year, indicating a sign of strong leveraged loan market

— Debt multiples of middle market and large corporate LBO loans stood at 5.4x and 5.9x, respectively, in the first quarter of 2018, almost flat at levels seen in full year 2017

— Equity contribution to LBOs decreased to 39.2% of the purchase price in the first quarter of 2018 from 41.3% in 2017. However, the contribution when compared with the first quarter of 2017 is higher by 0.7%

— Second lien loan issuance volume stood at $6 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 61.8% over the last quarter, while a 14.3% dip from the corresponding quarter of 2017

— High yield bond issuance volume decreased in the first quarter of 2018 to $64 billion from $82 billion and $68 billion in the corresponding quarter a year ago and the last quarter, respectively. Out of total volume in the first quarter, more than 15.4% was used to support M&A and LBO transactions

— High yield bond pricing increased to 6.6% in the first quarter of 2018 from 6.5% and 6.4% in the corresponding quarter a year ago and the last quarter, respectively

— Funds flows into leveraged loan funds increased to $36 billion in the first quarter of 2018 from $31 billion in the previous quarter

— CLO volume increased to $32 billion in the first quarter of 2018, up 84.6% from $17 billion in the corresponding quarter a year ago, and spreads tightened to L+104

— Distress indicators eased during the quarter, with the dollar amount and number of facilities of all outstanding first lien loans trading in the secondary market at prices of L+1000 or greater falling to 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively

— Percentage of leveraged loans in default or in bankruptcy fell to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2018 from 2.1% in the corresponding quarter of last year, marking improvements in credit fundamentals

Page 3: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

3

$97$3 $3 $8

$57 $98 $262 $237 $178$245

$375 $119 $102

75.0% 79.0%

(20.0%)0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%

$0B$80B

$160B$240B$320B$400B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

New-Issue Cov-Lite Loans ($bn)

Volume Percent of all Institutional loans

186188

84 78

47 55 44

11 16 16 18 2743

66 5472

141120

53 62

11588

126137

189164

127127

168159

134

6794

140113

7491

128141

119

210

166145

131

167

$0B

$44B

$88B

$132B

$176B

$220B

1Q'0

72Q

'07

3Q'0

74Q

'07

1Q'0

82Q

'08

3Q'0

84Q

'08

1Q'0

92Q

'09

3Q'0

94Q

'09

1Q'1

02Q

'10

3Q'1

04Q

'10

1Q'1

12Q

'11

3Q'1

14Q

'11

1Q'1

22Q

'12

3Q'1

24Q

'12

1Q'1

32Q

'13

3Q'1

34Q

'13

1Q'1

42Q

'14

3Q'1

44Q

'14

1Q'1

52Q

'15

3Q'1

54Q

'15

1Q'1

62Q

'16

3Q'1

64Q

'16

1Q'1

72Q

'17

3Q'1

74Q

'17

1Q'1

8

New Issue Leveraged Loan Volume - Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional Pro Rata

$535

$157$77

$236$377

$466$607

$528$423 $478

$652

$210 $167

$0B$140B$280B$420B$560B$700B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

New Issue Leveraged Loan Volume - Annual ($bn)

Institutional Pro Rata

Leveraged Loans

Total Volume: $210B Total Volume: $167B

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Refinancing45%

M&A26%

LBO14%

Recap9%

Others6%

Leveraged Loan Issuance by Purpose - 1Q'17

Refinancing43%

M&A30%

LBO17%

Recap7%

Others3%

Leveraged Loan Issuance by Purpose - 1Q'18

Page 4: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

4

346

344

L+150

L+230

L+310

L+390

L+470

L+550

1Q'0

72Q

'07

3Q'0

74Q

'07

1Q'0

82Q

'08

3Q'0

84Q

'08

1Q'0

92Q

'09

3Q'0

94Q

'09

1Q'1

02Q

'10

3Q'1

04Q

'10

1Q'1

12Q

'11

3Q'1

14Q

'11

1Q'1

22Q

'12

3Q'1

24Q

'12

1Q'1

32Q

'13

3Q'1

34Q

'13

1Q'1

42Q

'14

3Q'1

44Q

'14

1Q'1

52Q

'15

3Q'1

54Q

'15

1Q'1

62Q

'16

3Q'1

64Q

'16

1Q'1

72Q

'17

3Q'1

74Q

'17

1Q'1

8

New Issue First Lien Spreads B+/B - Quarterly

Pro Rata Institutional

228

265

L+100

L+170

L+240

L+310

L+380

L+450

1Q'0

72Q

'07

3Q'0

74Q

'07

1Q'0

82Q

'08

3Q'0

84Q

'08

1Q'0

92Q

'09

3Q'0

94Q

'09

1Q'1

02Q

'10

3Q'1

04Q

'10

1Q'1

12Q

'11

3Q'1

14Q

'11

1Q'1

22Q

'12

3Q'1

24Q

'12

1Q'1

32Q

'13

3Q'1

34Q

'13

1Q'1

42Q

'14

3Q'1

44Q

'14

1Q'1

52Q

'15

3Q'1

54Q

'15

1Q'1

62Q

'16

3Q'1

64Q

'16

1Q'1

72Q

'17

3Q'1

74Q

'17

1Q'1

8

New Issue First Lien Spreads BB/BB - Quarterly

Pro Rata Institutional

Leveraged Loans (continued)

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 5: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

5

LBO62%

Refinancing22%

Recap/Dividend13%

Acquisition3%

Total New-Issue Volume by Purpose - 1Q'18

$29

$8$5

$11$14

$10$13 $15

$10 $9$13

$3 $2

$0B

$7B

$14B

$21B

$28B

$35B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Leveraged Loan Volume- Annual ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

Leveraged Loans – Middle Market

Total Volume: $2.4B

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & DataNote: Middle market refers to companies with EBITDA of $50 million or less

$8

$13

$5$3

$4$2 $1

$0 $1 $1 $1$2 $2

$4$2

$3$5 $5

$3$2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $3

$4$3

$4$5

$3$2

$4$3

$1$2 $2

$1

$4 $3$3

$5$3 $2

$0B

$3B

$6B

$9B

$12B

$15B

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

Leveraged Loan Volume- Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

LBO37%

Refinancing32%

Recap/Dividend16%

Acquisition9%

Other6%

Total New-Issue Volume by Purpose - 1Q'17

Total Volume: $2.7B

Page 6: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

6

9.3x8.3x

6.6x

8.4x 8.2x 7.9x8.8x

9.6x10.7x 10.2x

11.6x

8.3x

10.5x

0.0x

2.4x

4.8x

7.2x

9.6x

12.0x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Average Purchase Price Multiple – Middle Market LBOs(1)

Senior Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA Others

9.7x 9.1x

7.7x 8.5x 8.8x 8.7x 8.8x

9.7x 10.3x 10.0x

10.6x 9.7x 10.2x

0.0x

2.4x

4.8x

7.2x

9.6x

12.0x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Average Purchase Price Multiple - All LBOs

Senior Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA Others

$50 $54

0

15

30

45

60

75

$0B

$32B

$64B

$96B

$128B

$160B

1Q'0

72Q

'07

3Q'0

74Q

'07

1Q'0

82Q

'08

3Q'0

84Q

'08

1Q'0

92Q

'09

3Q'0

94Q

'09

1Q'1

02Q

'10

3Q'1

04Q

'10

1Q'1

12Q

'11

3Q'1

14Q

'11

1Q'1

22Q

'12

3Q'1

24Q

'12

1Q'1

32Q

'13

3Q'1

34Q

'13

1Q'1

42Q

'14

3Q'1

44Q

'14

1Q'1

52Q

'15

3Q'1

54Q

'15

1Q'1

62Q

'16

3Q'1

64Q

'16

1Q'1

72Q

'17

3Q'1

74Q

'17

1Q'1

8

Num

ber o

f Dea

ls

Volu

me

($bn

)

LBO Transaction Volume - Quarterly ($bn)

LBO Summary

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data(1) Middle market refers to companies with EBITDA of $50 million or less

Page 7: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

7

30.9%

38.9%

45.7%41.4%

38.0% 37.7%35.6%

37.0%40.5% 40.8% 41.3%

38.6% 39.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Equity Contribution - All LBOs

5.6x

4.5x

3.3x

4.2x 4.3x 4.5x 4.8x5.3x 5.4x 5.2x 5.5x

NA

5.4x

0.0x

1.2x

2.4x

3.6x

4.8x

6.0x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Average Debt Multiples of Middle-Market LBO Loans(2)

FLD/EBITDA SLD/EBITDA Other Sr Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA

6.2x

4.9x

4.0x 4.7x

5.2x 5.3x 5.4x 5.8x 5.7x 5.5x 5.8x 5.7x 5.9x

0.0x

1.3x

2.6x

3.9x

5.2x

6.5x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Average Debt Multiples of Large Corporate LBO Loans(1)

FLD/EBITDA SLD/EBITDA Other Sr Debt/EBITDA Sub Debt/EBITDA

LBO Summary (continued)

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data(1) Middle market refers to companies with EBITDA of $50 million or less.(2) Large corporate refers to companies with EBITDA of more than $50 million.

Page 8: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

8

659

1,069

1,480

1,0621,085 1,064928 898

996 968

829 835 782

L+0

L+300

L+600

L+900

L+1200

L+1500

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1Q'1

7

1Q'1

8

Average New Issue Second-Lien Spreads

LIBOR Floor Upfront Fee Spread

178

19 1131

46

89

152

198

85

62

131

3544

0

40

80

120

160

200

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1Q'1

7

1Q'1

8

Second-Lien Loans New-Issue Volume(Number of Deals)

$11$14

$2 $2$1 $1 $1 $0 $0$0

$1$0 $1 $1 $0

$3$1

$4

$1$0

$4$3 $4

$6$5

$11

$6 $7

$12$13

$8

$4$2

$3$4

$1 $1 $1

$3$5

$7

$5

$10

$4

$6

$0B

$3B

$6B

$9B

$12B

$15B

1Q'0

72Q

'07

3Q'0

74Q

'07

1Q'0

82Q

'08

3Q'0

84Q

'08

1Q'0

92Q

'09

3Q'0

94Q

'09

1Q'1

02Q

'10

3Q'1

04Q

'10

1Q'1

12Q

'11

3Q'1

14Q

'11

1Q'1

22Q

'12

3Q'1

24Q

'12

1Q'1

32Q

'13

3Q'1

34Q

'13

1Q'1

42Q

'14

3Q'1

44Q

'14

1Q'1

52Q

'15

3Q'1

54Q

'15

1Q'1

62Q

'16

3Q'1

64Q

'16

1Q'1

72Q

'17

3Q'1

74Q

'17

1Q'1

8

Second Lien Loan New-Issue Volume - Quarterly ($bn)

$30

$3 $2 $5$7

$18

$29

$37

$11 $10

$25

$7 $6

$0B

$8B

$16B

$24B

$32B

$40B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Second-Lien Loan New-Issue Volume - Annual ($bn)

Second-Lien Loans

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 9: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

9

6.1% 4.4%13.4% 10.2% 6.8% 10.3% 14.1% 9.9% 9.9% 7.1% 5.9% 4.3% 6.7%

16.2%2.4%

5.9% 12.5% 15.3% 15.6% 15.7% 22.3% 29.8%

14.0% 16.3% 19.2% 13.4%

35.4%

42.9% 4.8% 7.1% 5.5% 5.2% 3.8%3.3%

5.8% 4.0% 2.8% 2.0%

29.2% 42.0%

75.5% 62.8% 54.4% 58.1% 50.3% 48.5%46.3%

63.7% 64.9% 70.0% 73.0%

13.2% 8.3% 5.2% 9.8% 16.5% 10.5% 14.7% 15.5% 10.6% 9.4% 8.9% 3.7% 4.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

High Yield Bond Issuance by Purpose

Corp Purpose M&A/Acquisition M&A/LBO Refinancing Others

6.6%

0.0%

2.8%

5.6%

8.4%

11.2%

14.0%

1Q'0

73Q

'07

1Q'0

83Q

'08

1Q'0

93Q

'09

1Q'1

03Q

'10

1Q'1

13Q

'11

1Q'1

23Q

'12

1Q'1

33Q

'13

1Q'1

43Q

'14

1Q'1

53Q

'15

1Q'1

63Q

'16

1Q'1

73Q

'17

1Q'1

8

New issue High yield Bond yield to Maturity

$64

$0B

$22B

$44B

$66B

$88B

$110B

1Q'0

73Q

'07

1Q'0

83Q

'08

1Q'0

93Q

'09

1Q'1

03Q

'10

1Q'1

13Q

'11

1Q'1

23Q

'12

1Q'1

33Q

'13

1Q'1

43Q

'14

1Q'1

53Q

'15

1Q'1

63Q

'16

1Q'1

73Q

'17

1Q'1

8High Yield Bond Issuance – Quarterly ($bn)

Secured Unsecured Subordinated

$144

$68

$164

$287

$218

$345$322 $310

$262$229

$276

$82 $64

$0B

$80B

$160B

$240B

$320B

$400B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

High Yield Bond Issuance – Annual ($bn)

Secured Unsecured Subordinated

High Yield Bonds

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 10: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

10

$3.2

$0.4$0.3

$2.8$2.5

$0.8

$3.0

$1.8

$0.9

$1.5

$0.5$0.5

$0.3

$0.0B

$0.7B

$1.4B

$2.1B

$2.8B

$3.5B

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1Q'1

71Q

'18

Middle-Market Dividend Related Volume- Annual ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$0.5 $0.3

$0.0B

$0.4B

$0.8B

$1.2B

$1.6B

$2.0B

1Q'0

73Q

'07

1Q'0

83Q

'08

1Q'0

93Q

'09

1Q'1

03Q

'10

1Q'1

13Q

'11

1Q'1

23Q

'12

1Q'1

33Q

'13

1Q'1

43Q

'14

1Q'1

53Q

'15

1Q'1

63Q

'16

1Q'1

73Q

'17

1Q'1

8

Middle-Market Dividend Related Volume- Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$26

$21

$1 $1 $1 $2$0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $1

$7$5

$8

$19$17

$16

$2 $1

$16

$8

$16 $16$18

$27

$14$11

$17$18

$13

$4$7

$15$13

$3$0

$14 $13

$22$20

$7

$15$14

$13

$0B

$6B

$12B

$18B

$24B

$30B

1Q'0

72Q

'07

3Q'0

74Q

'07

1Q'0

82Q

'08

3Q'0

84Q

'08

1Q'0

92Q

'09

3Q'0

94Q

'09

1Q'1

02Q

'10

3Q'1

04Q

'10

1Q'1

12Q

'11

3Q'1

14Q

'11

1Q'1

22Q

'12

3Q'1

24Q

'12

1Q'1

32Q

'13

3Q'1

34Q

'13

1Q'1

42Q

'14

3Q'1

44Q

'14

1Q'1

52Q

'15

3Q'1

54Q

'15

1Q'1

62Q

'16

3Q'1

64Q

'16

1Q'1

72Q

'17

3Q'1

74Q

'17

1Q'1

8

Dividend or Stock Repurchase Loan Volume- Quarterly ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

$49

$3 $3

$38 $36

$56

$70

$53

$38

$50$56

$20$13

$0B

$14B

$28B

$42B

$56B

$70B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Dividend or Stock Repurchase Loan Volume- Annual ($bn)

Institutional ProRata

Dividend Recapitalization

$0.0

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 11: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

11

$3 $4

($10)

($2)

$9

($5)($9)

($2)

$8

($4)

$6 $2

($6) ($1) ($1)($9)

($19)

($20B)

($14B)

($8B)

($2B)

$4B

$10B

1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17 1Q'18

Flows into High Yield Bond Funds - Quarterly ($bn)

$12

$54

$83

$124

$99

$72

$118

$17$32

0

50

100

150

200

250

$0B

$25B

$50B

$75B

$100B

$125B

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Annual CLO Volume ($bn)

Volume ($B) Count

$23

$38$32 $31 $31 $29

$19 $20$8

$18 $20$26

$17

$35 $30$36 $32

$9

($5)($12) ($17)

($4)($2) ($7)

($13) ($8) ($1)

$3

$14

$16

$4

($1) ($5)

$4

($20B)

($7B)

$6B

$19B

$32B

$45B

1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17 1Q'18

Flows into Leveraged Loan Funds - Quarterly ($bn)

CLO issuance Prime fund flows

Funds Flows

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 12: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

12

0.94x 0.92x

0.81x 0.82x0.85x 0.88x

0.93x1.00x 0.99x

0.95x 0.94x0.89x

0.85x

0.00x

0.20x

0.41x

0.61x

0.82x

1.02x

1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17 4Q'17 1Q'18

Public BDCs - Price to Book Value Multiple - Quarterly

104

0

40

80

120

160

200

1Q'1

3

2Q'1

3

3Q'1

3

4Q'1

3

1Q'1

4

2Q'1

4

3Q'1

4

4Q'1

4

1Q'1

5

2Q'1

5

3Q'1

5

4Q'1

5

1Q'1

6

2Q'1

6

3Q'1

6

4Q'1

6

1Q'1

7

2Q'1

7

3Q'1

7

4Q'1

7

1Q'1

8

Libo

r +

U.S. CLO Spreads

Funds Flows (continued)

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 13: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

13

2.9%

0.0%

16.0%

32.0%

48.0%

64.0%

80.0%

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Percent of First-Lien Loans with Secondary Spreads of L+1000 or HigherBy Number of Facilities

2.3%0.0%

16.0%

32.0%

48.0%

64.0%

80.0%

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Percent of First-Lien Loans with Secondary Spreads of L+1000 or HigherBy Amount Outstanding

Distress and Defaults

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 14: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

14

10

44

74

29

139 12

913 14 12

15 16

0

16

32

48

64

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Number of Issuers in Payment Default or Bankruptcy

0.6%

3.7%

10.7%

5.0%

2.3% 2.2%1.2%

2.9%3.5%

1.6% 1.1%2.1% 1.9%

0.0%

2.4%

4.8%

7.2%

9.6%

12.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Percent of Outstanding Leveraged Loans in Default or Bankruptcy

$3

$22

$57

$25

$12 $12$8

$24

$31

$14$10

$18 $19

$0B

$12B

$24B

$36B

$48B

$60B

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q'17 1Q'18

Par Amount of Leveraged Loans in Payment Default or Bankruptcy ($bn)

Distress and Defaults (continued)

Source: Standard & Poor | Leveraged Commentary & Data

Page 15: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

15

• Primary Service Offerings

Debt

and

equi

tyca

pita

lrai

ses — Senior debt financing, refinancing or amendments

— Acquisition and growth capital

— Dividend recapitalizations and minority buyouts

— Mezzanine/junior subordinated financing

— Structured and minority equity

— Project financing

— Capital for special situations, including bankruptcies

Capital Advisory PracticeWe are a leading global financial advisor with real time knowledge of the capital markets. We advise on a wide range of transactions involving both debt and equity, including raising financing for acquisitions, buyouts, dividend recapitalizations, growth capital, special situations, and DIP and exit financing in bankruptcies

We maintain close relationships with debt, mezzanine and equity capital providers, including banks, BDCs, specialty finance companies, insurance companies, family offices, credit and equity funds and other private investors

Value added advisor— Unbiased and objective advice— Local market insight with strong relationships across all

tranches of capital— Experienced deal team— Flexible and innovative approach— Fully integrated service offering— KPMG global advisory network

Capital Advisory Practice

Value added advisor

Primary service offerings

KPMG Investment Banking – Capital Advisory

www.kpmgcorporatefinance.comCorporate financeservices, including Financing,Debt Advisory,andValuation Services, are not performedby all KPMGmember firmsand are not offeredby member firms in certain jurisdictions due to legal or regulatory constraints.

For more information, contact:

Doug Christensen

Vice PresidentCapitalAdvisory [email protected]

Philip Isom

Managing DirectorGlobal Head of M&A [email protected]

Pablo Escobar

DirectorCapitalAdvisory [email protected]

Mike Rudolph

Managing DirectorCapitalAdvisory [email protected]

Page 16: Credit Markets Update - KPMG Corporate Finance LLC · 2020-02-26 · We are pleased to provide this summary update of the U.S credit markets through the first calendar quarter ending

©2018 KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. Member FINRA and SIPC. KPMG Corporate Finance LLC is a subsidiary of KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and the U.S. member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

16

Important notice

The information contained in this newsletter is of a general nature and is not intended to address thecircumstances of any particular individual or entity including their investment objectives or financial needs. Inpreparing this newsletter, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracyand completeness of all information available from public sources. Although we endeavor to provide accurateand timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it isreceived or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act or rely on the information in thisnewsletter without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation tobuy, sell or hold any security of any issuer. Past performance does not guarantee future results.