crisil research ier report bhartiya international 2013 q2fy14
TRANSCRIPT
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8/13/2019 CRISIL Research Ier Report Bhartiya International 2013 Q2FY14
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CRISILIERIndependentEquityResearch
Enhancing investment decisions
Bhartiya InternationalLtd
Q2FY14 Results Update
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CRISILIERIndependentEquityResearch
Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making processAnalysis
of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a
five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-
point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISILFundamental Grade Assessment
CRISILValuation Grade Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)
4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)
3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)
2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)
1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (
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Bhartiya International LtdHealthy bookings; PE investors exit is a monitorable
Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)
Industry Textiles, Apparels and Luxury Goods
December 02, 2013
Fair Value 285
CMP 185
1
For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in
CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.
Bhartiya International Ltds (Bhartiyas) Q2FY14 standalone (fashion business) revenues
exceeded but earnings were below CRISIL Researchs expectations due to lower margin.The real estate development business through its associate company (40% share)Bhartiya
Urban Infrastructure & Land Development Company Pvt. Ltd (BUILDCO) has reported
bookings of 2.4 mn sq ft as of Q2FY14 (90% of the launched area). Construction of the
residential project is also progressing well. The management is still evaluating different
options for the PE investors exit; this is a key monitorable. We maintain the fundamental
grade of 3/5.
Fashion business earnings below expectations due to lower-than-expected margin
Revenues grew by 46.3% y-o-y and 55.6% q-o-q to 1,056 mndriven by strong growth
in both the business segments - leather products (~90% contribution to total revenues)
and textile apparels.
EBITDA margin declined by 200 bps y-o-y to 8.1% as margins in the leather accessories
and textile businesses were under pressure.
Despite strong growth in revenues, PAT recorded a lower growth of 19.8% y-o-y (46mn) due to lower margin.
Working capital cycle has been stable at 163 days as of September 2013.
Real estate projecthealthy bookings in Q2FY14, construction progressing wellBookings during Q2FY14 were healthy at 0.4 mn sq ft; cumulatively 2.4 mn sq ft of the project
has been booked (90% of the launched area). Construction of the project is progressing well;
as of Q2FY14, it spent 3,250 mn (excluding land cost), funded through debt and customer
advances of 2,701 mn. The company plans to launch 0.5 mn sq ft of residential projects in
two-three months. Given such a large project is a first for the company, execution is a
monitorable.
Exit of the PE investor is a monitorableIn FY08, the PE investor had invested 1,500 mn in BUILDCO for a 26% stake . As
highlighted earlier, BUILDCO bought back 3.4% equity for 500 mn in Q1FY14; the next
significant tranche to the PE investor is due in March 2014. As highlighted in our Q1FY14
update, the management is still evaluating options they might bring in a new investor or
promoter entities may provide an exit. In the eventuality of buyback of shares, BUILDCO
(unlisted) will be subject to distribution tax of 22.7%; this could impact our valuation
adversely. We will revisit our fair value once the exit plan of the PE investor is finalised.
Fair value retained at 285per share
Factoring in lower-than-expected margins in the accessories and textile businesses, we have
lowered margin estimates for FY14 and FY15. Accordingly, earnings estimates are lowered.
We continue to use the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method to value Bhartiya but have retained
fair value of 285 per share as more than 70% of the valuation is derived from the real estate
business, which is unchanged.
KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED)
(mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EOperating income 1,952 2,507 3,039 3,918 4,616
EBITDA 186 270 273 369 443
Adj net income 68 118 104 147 183
Adj EPS () 7.1 11.3 9.4 12.8 16.0
EPS growth (%) 33.7 58.5 (16.6) 36.1 24.6
Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.7
RoCE (%) 9.4 12.3 10.6 12.6 13.9
RoE (%) 6.0 9.4 7.5 9.7 10.9
PE (x) 7.3 4.6 19.6 14.4 11.6
P/BV (x) 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.4 10.8 8.6 7.4
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 6218/20898
NSE/BSE ticker BIL
Face value ( per share) 10
Shares outstanding (mn) 11.1
Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 2,049/33
Enterprise value ( mn)/(US$ mn) 2,966/48
52-week range ()/(H/L) 245/113
Beta 1.3
Free float (%) 54.0%
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 25,684
Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 4.9
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
Bhartiya -2% 16% -16% 10%
CNX 500 0% 13% 3% 3%
ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected]
Ravi Dodhia [email protected]
Vishal Rampuria [email protected]
Client servicing desk
+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
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Valuation Grade
FundamentalGrade
Poor
Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
Strong
Downs
ide
Stron
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Upsid
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45.5% 45.5% 45.5% 46%
0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0%
54.2% 54.5% 54.5% 54%
0%
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70%
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Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep -13
Pro mo ter FII Oth ers
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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Q2FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)
( mn) Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Q2FY13 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY14 H1FY13 y-o-y (%)
Net sales 1,056 679 722 55.6 46.3 1,734 1,150 50.8Raw materials cost 704 365 458 93.0 53.7 1,068 693 54.1
Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 66.7% 53.7% 63.4% 1292bps 322bps 61.6% 60.3% 131bps
Employees cost 40 36 29 9.8 40.5 77 53 43.4
Other expenses 226 227 162 (0.2) 39.4 453 290 56.4
EBITDA 86 51 73 68.8 17.3 136 114 19.9
EBITDA margin 8.1% 7.5% 10.1% 64bps -200bps 7.9% 9.9% -203bps
Depreciation 6 6 5 2.4 27.3 13 10 30.6
EBIT 79 45 68 78.0 16.6 124 104 18.9
Interest and finance charges 26 21 21 22.9 23.8 48 40 20.6
Operating PBT 53 23 47 129.0 13.3 76 65 17.8
Other Income 7 5 6 43.8 24.1 12 11 13.6
PBT 60 28 53 113.7 14.5 89 76 17.2Tax 14 7 14 100.0 - 21 20 5.0
PAT 46 21 39 118.2 19.8 68 56 21.6
Adj PAT 46 21 39 118.2 19.8 68 56 21.6
Adj PAT margin 4.4% 3.1% 5.4% 126bps -97bps 3.9% 4.8% -93bps
No. of equity shares (mn) 11.1 11.1 11.1 - - 11.1 11.1 -
Adj EPS () 4.2 1.9 3.5 118.2 19.8 6.1 5.0 21.6
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Revenues recorded strong growth; margin under pressure PAT recorded lower growth due to decline in margin
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
657 397 429 722 733 590 679 1,056
7.3%6.7%
9.5% 10.1%
7.7%
5.6%
7.5%8.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
( mn)
Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)
18 6 17 39 21 6 21 46
2.7%
1.4%
3.9%
5.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3.1%
4.4%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
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35
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45
50
Q3FY12
Q4FY12
Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
( mn)
PAT PAT Margin (RHS)
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Bhartiya International Ltd
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Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-Indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research
Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards
Particulars Unit
FY14E FY15E
Old New % change Old New % change
Revenues ( mn) 3,918 3,918 0.0% 4,616 4,616 0.0%
EBITDA ( mn) 390 369 -5.5% 468 443 -5.4%
EBITDA margin % 10.0% 9.4% -55bps 10.1% 9.6% -55bps
PAT ( mn) 159 147 -7.3% 197 183 -6.7%
PAT margin % 4.1% 3.8% -30bps 4.3% 4.0% -28bps
EPS () 13.9 12.8 -7.3% 17.1 16.0 -6.7%
Source: CRISIL Research estimates
Reasons for changes in estimates
Line item FY14E FY15E
Revenues No change
EBITDA margins Lowered factoring in lower-than-expected margins in the leather accessories and textile businesses
PAT Lowered in line with revision in margin estimates
0
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Bhartiya CNX 500
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('000)()
Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Bhartiya
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CRISILIERIndependentEquityResearch
4
Valuation Grade: 5/5
We have lowered earnings estimates by 7.3% for FY14 and 6.7% for FY15 factoring in lower-
than-expected margins in the leather accessories and textiles businesses. We continue to use
the SOTP method to value Bhartiya but have retained our fair value of 285 per share as
more than 70% of the valuation is derived from the real estate business, which is unchanged.
At the current market price of 185, the valuation grade is 5/5.
The fashion business value is retained at 79 per share based on the DCF method. We
continue to value the SEZ business at 10 per share at investment value. The real estate
business value is retained at 196 per share based on the net asset value (NAV) approach.
The management was earlier planning to provide an exit to the PE investor through a
buyback. Owing to imposition of new tax on unlisted entities for such buybacks, the
management has shelved its buyback plans. According to the management, the next
significant tranche to the PE investor is due in March 2014. As highlighted in our Q1FY14
update, the management is still evaluating different options they might bring in a new
investor or promoter entities may provide an exit; this remains a key monitorable. In the
eventuality of buyback of shares, BUILDCO (unlisted) will be subject to distribution tax of
22.7%. We will revisit our fair value once the exit plan of the PE investor is finalised.
Businesses Fair value (per share) Valuation method
Fashion 79 DCF
SEZ 10 Investment valueReal estate 196 NAV
Total fair value 285
One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
0
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()
Bhartiya 3x 6x
9x 12x 15x
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Apr-
09
Sep-0
9
Fe
b-1
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Ju
l-10
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( mn)
EV 2x 4x 6x 8x
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Bhartiya International Ltd
5
P/Epremium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
CRISIL IER reports released on Bhartiya International Ltd
Date Nature of report
Fundamental
grade Fair value
Valuation
grade
CMP
(on the date of report)
11-Oct-2012 Initiating Coverage 3/5 147 5/5 65
09-Nov-2012 Q2FY13 Result update 3/5 180 5/5 133
12-Feb-2013 Q3FY13 Result update 3/5 247 5/5 170
15-May-2013 Event Update 3/5 285 4/5 234
19-Jun-2013 Q4FY13 Result Update 3/5 285 5/5 209
23-Sep-2013 Q1FY14 Result Update 3/5 285 5/5 180
02-Dec-2013 Q2FY14 Result Update 3/5 285 5/5 185
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr-
09
Sep-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
l-10
Dec-1
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May-1
1
Oc
t-11
Mar-
12
Aug-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jun-1
3
Nov-1
3
Premium/Discount to CNX 500
Median premium/discount to CNX 500
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1820
Apr-
09
Sep-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
l-10
Dec-1
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May-1
1
Oc
t-11
Mar-
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Aug-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jun-1
3
Nov-1
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(Times)
1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE
+1 std dev
-1 std dev
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CRISILIERIndependentEquityResearch
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Annexure: Financials (Consolidated)
Note: BUILDCO is not consolidated as it is an associate company
Source: CRISIL Research
Income statement Balance Sheet
( mn ) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E ( mn ) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EOperating income 1,952 2,507 3,039 3,918 4,616 Liabilities
EBITDA 186 270 273 369 443 Equity share capital 95 105 111 115 115
EBITDA margin 9.5% 10.8% 9.0% 9.4% 9.6% Reserves 1,099 1,224 1,328 1,486 1,651
Depreciation 28 30 32 40 43 Minorities - - - - -
EBIT 158 240 241 328 399 Net worth 1,194 1,329 1,438 1,601 1,766
Interest 82 103 119 135 150 Convertible debt - - - - -
Operating PBT 76 137 123 193 250 Other debt 627 767 1,038 1,138 1,238
Other income 22 23 22 25 22 Total debt 627 767 1,038 1,138 1,238
Exceptional inc/(exp) (4) (3) (3) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 13 17 23 28 33
PBT 94 157 141 218 272 Total liabilities 1,835 2,113 2,499 2,766 3,037
Tax provision 30 41 40 71 88 Assets
Minority interest - - - - - Net f ixed assets 455 478 647 657 685
PAT (Reported) 64 115 101 147 183 Capital WIP 28 91 2 72 50
Less: Exceptionals (4) (3) (3) - - Total fixed assets 483 569 649 729 735
Adjusted PAT 68 118 104 147 183 Investments 389 411 412 412 412
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 777 949 1,081 1,342 1,581
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Sundry debtors 137 251 381 486 573
Growth Loans and advances 218 198 221 293 345
Operating income (%) (5.7) 28.4 21.2 28.9 17.8 Cash & bank balance 96 83 121 78 79
EBITDA (%) 4.2 45.2 1.2 34.9 20.1 Marketable securities 38 33 27 27 27
Adj PAT (%) 46.0 75.3 (11.8) 41.1 24.6 Total current assets 1,267 1,515 1,831 2,226 2,605
Adj EPS (%) 33.7 58.5 (16.6) 36.1 24.6 Total current liabilities 310 388 403 610 726
Net current assets 956 1,126 1,428 1,616 1,880
Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 6 7 9 9 9
EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 10.8 9.0 9.4 9.6 Total assets 1,835 2,113 2,499 2,766 3,037
Adj PAT Margin (%) 3.5 4.7 3.4 3.8 4.0
RoE (%) 6.0 9.4 7.5 9.7 10.9 Cash flow
RoCE (%) 9.4 12.3 10.6 12.6 13.9 ( mn ) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
RoIC (%) 14.5 16.6 13.8 14.7 14.9 Pre-tax prof it 98 160 144 218 272
Total tax paid (25) (38) (34) (66) (83)
Valuations Depreciation 28 30 32 40 43
Price-earnings (x) 7.3 4.6 19.6 14.4 11.6 Working capital changes (275) (188) (270) (231) (262)
Price-book (x) 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 Net cash from operations (175) (37) (128) (39) (30)
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.4 10.8 8.6 7.4 Cash from investments
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (87) (116) (115) (120) (50)
Div idend payout ratio (%) 14.8 9.6 11.5 8.5 8.5 Investments and others 22 (17) 5 - -
Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 Net cash from investments (65) (133) (110) (120) (50)
Cash from financing
B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 34 50 36 30 -
Inventory days 177 169 154 151 150 Debt raised/(repaid) 162 140 271 100 100
Creditors days 52 54 46 53 53 Dividend (incl. tax) (11) (13) (14) (15) (18)
Debtor days 28 39 49 50 49 Others (incl extraordinaries) 29 (20) (17) - -
Working capital days 167 159 165 155 151 Net cash from financing 215 156 276 115 82
Gross asset turnover (x) 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.9 Change in cash position (25) (13) 38 (43) 2
Net asset turnover (x) 5.0 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.9 Closing cash 96 83 121 78 79
Sales/operating as sets (x ) 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.7 6.3
Current ratio (x) 4.1 3.9 4.5 3.7 3.6
Debt-equity (x) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 ( mn ) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
Net debt/equity (x) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Net Sales 429 722 733 590 679 1,056
Interest coverage 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.7 Change (q-o-q) 8% 68% 2% -19% 15% 56%
EBITDA 41 73 56 33 51 86Per share Change (q-o-q) 53% 79% -23% -42% 54% 69%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EBITDA margin 10% 10% 8% 6% 7% 8%
Adj EPS () 7.1 11.3 9.4 12.8 16.0 PAT 17 39 21 6 21 46
CEPS 10.1 14.2 12.3 16.4 19.8 Adj PAT 17 39 21 6 21 46
Book value 126.1 127.0 130.0 139.6 154.0 Change (q-o-q) 198% 129% -45% -71% 247% 118%
Dividend () 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 Adj PAT margin 4% 5% 3% 1% 3% 4%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 9.5 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.5 Adj EPS 1.6 3.5 1.9 0.6 1.9 4.2
Quarterly financials (standalone)
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Kolkata
Horizon, Block 'B', 4th Floor57 Chowringhee Road
Kolkata - 700 071, India
Phone: +91 33 2289 1949/50
Fax: +91 33 2283 0597
Chennai
Thapar House,
43/44, Montieth Road, Egmore,
Chennai - 600 008, India
Phone: +91 44 2854 6205/06
+91 44 2854 6093
Fax: +91 44 2854 7531
Pune
1187/17, Ghole Road,
Shivaji Nagar,
Pune - 411 005, India
Phone: +91 20 2553 9064/67
Fax: +91 20 4018 1930
Gurgaon
Plot No. 46
Sector 44
Opp. PF Office
Gurgaon - 122 003, India
Phone: +91 124 6722 000
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Phone: +91 22 3342 3000 | Fax: +91 22 3342 8088
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