Crisis Decision MakingPrinciples & Precepts

• Decision—passing of judgment on an issue

• Reaction—a response to a stimulus

• This class is not focused on reactions

• Decisions require:♦ Knowledge♦ Memory♦ Thought♦ Judgment

Reaction!Decision

Decisions or Reactions?27

• U.S.S. Vincennes (CG-49)♦State of the art ship• Equipped with Aegis electronic

battle management system♦Top Notch Captain and Crew

• July 3, 1988♦ Patrolling Strait of Hormuz♦ Iran Air Flight 655 shot down

290 civilians killed

How Could it Happen?

Crisis Decision Making26

• Fogarty Report recommended Chief of Naval Operations to examine stress factors on human decision making

• TADMUS study began in 1990♦ Lasted 9 years♦ Opted for actual field conditions

rather than laboratory analysis• Studied both individual and team

decision making

TADMUS Study25

What do we know about it?• Not entirely a rational process• Brain is a multiprocessor• Requires both short-term and long-term memory• Expertise counts• Perceptual information is not processed

simultaneously• Stressors will impede it• Training will improve it

Human Decision Making24

• Rational♦ Logical and methodical process

• Emotional♦ Decision-making “shortcuts”♦ Dispositions, Biases,

Prejudices & Paradigms♦ The truth is not enough, we

must also believe it!• Perceptional

♦ How the information is received

Three Factors Present in allHuman Decision Making

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• Brain processes visual cuesfaster than auditory

♦ Motion processed before Color

♦ Color is processed before Shape Color yellow is processed

faster than other colors

• Auditory - Frequency processed before direction(Sometimes called the “Cocktail Party Effect”)

Perceptional Priorities22

• Smell (brain processing time about 125 msec—detection, not discrimination)

♦ Humans can detect about 10,000 different odors♦ Minty (peppermint) ; Floral (roses) ; Ethereal (pears) ; Musky

(musk) ; Resinous (camphor) ; Foul (rotten eggs) ; Acrid (vinegar)• Hearing (brain processing time about 150 msec)

♦ Frequency before Direction before Recognition • Touch (brain processing time about 155 msec)

♦ Pain, Pressure, Heat• Vision (brain processing time about 190 msec)

♦ Motion, then Color, then Shape• Taste

♦ Sweet; Sour; Bitter; Salty; Umami (savoriness as in aged or fermented foods)

The Human Body is a Transducer!

21

Pink Elephant

Native Thinking Format20

Get on the on ramp heading Southeast out of the airport. Make sure you’re in the extreme right lane or you’ll have to completely circle the airport again. Merge onto Sepulveda Blvd. for about a half-mile and take the Imperial Hwy west ramp. Stay in the left lane and merge onto I-105 heading East. Take this freeway clear to the 710 freeway (about 13 miles) and head north to the 3rd St. exit.This exit is the next one after the 60 Fwy. Get off the Fwy. and turn left to 3rd St. and then right toMednik. Turn left on Mednik to thefirst right after the big multi-coloredbuilding on your right. After turningright, stay straight and drive into thedriveway into the Special EnforcementBureau. If you are in the right place,you’ll notice the 60 Fwy. on your immediate right. Call 323-264-7084if you get lost.

Which Would You Rather Have?

19

It was invented in 1938 by the Hungarian inventor, Georg Biro. While they come in many styles, colors and configurations, they are easily reloaded by anyone who can use one. Simply pick up the device and grasp the lower barrel firmly between the thumb and forefinger of either hand and twist counter-clockwise while holding tightly to the upper barrel in a similar manner with the other hand. Slowly twist the two components counter-clockwise while applying slight pressure between the barrels to avoid dropping any internal components. The refill is located inside the hollow cylinders of the upper and lower barrels and held between the front spring and the back spring, which in turn is held under a plunger. To reload the device, simply pull the upper and lower barrels apart while carefully avoiding dropping any internal component. Avoid contact with the point of the refill to prevent permanent stains of clothing and other absorbent materials. Slide the upper barrel assembly away from the remaining components and place aside. Remove the old refill component and discard. Insert a fresh refill into the lower barrel and repeat the steps in reverse order to reassemble.

What is It?18

I didn’t say she stole your money!1. I didn’t say she stole your money!2. I didn’t say she stole your money!3. I didn’t say she stole your money!4. I didn’t say she stole your money!5. I didn’t say she stole your money!6. I didn’t say she stole your money!7. I didn’t say she stole your money!

Transferring Information17

• Humans can simultaneously think and do several things

• The brain does not giveequal attention to all tasks

• Two demanding tasks can not be equally shared!

Multi-Processing16

• Brain processes aboutone symbol in ~25 milliseconds

• Maximum retention of about seven items

• Without reinforcement the brain forgets in about 30 seconds.

• Examples include telephone numbers,social security numbers, addresses, names, etc.(323) 526-5541, 123-45-6789, 36-15-45

Limited Short Term Memory

(chunking)

15

• Takes much longer to acquire but there is nearly an unlimited capacity and they are retained for life

• Examples include experience, training, and education

• Where meaning is attached

• Where understanding occurs

Long Term Memory14

Pattern RecognitionCritical for Expertise

19

How Many Orange Balls?

13

• Experts work, not by seeking the relevant, but by eliminating the irrelevant• This allows more time to focus

on a smaller sample

• They don’t start from scratch,they start where they left off!• They don’t think harder, they

just think in more productive ways.

• A thorough understanding ofthe issues coupled with a rich repertoire of experiences provides a solid foundation to draw upon

Expertise & Experience Count!12

•?—L—M—N—?•?— 19—20—?•?— 7—9—11—?•?— 13—?•1—2—3—5—8—13—?

♦ Fibonacci Sequence

•Shave and a haircut

Pattern Completion11

Pattern CorrectionAoccdrnig to rscheearch at an

Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the only iprmoetn tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit mcuh porbelm.

10

• In a moment you will view a short video

• There will be two groups of people tossing a basketball. One group will be dressed in white, the other in black.

• Carefully count the number of completed passes for the white team.

• After recording your answer, you will be given one more opportunity.

Task Saturation9

Task Saturation8

The Dollar Auction!Only 2 Rules!

1. There is no minimum bid, but the maximum is 5¢ over the previous bid

2. The auctioneer agrees to work for the second highest bid

Incremental Decision Making7

• Pattern Recognition• Anomalies (even subtle)

• Situation Awareness (big picture)

• Understanding of the Way things Work (Mental model of functions, coordination, mechanisms, etc.)

• Opportunities and Improvisations (leverage points)

• Fine Discriminations (Significance missed of/and events that will happen)

• Experiences the Past and the Future (Flying behind the plane, Event Horizon)

• Understands and manages their own limitations♦ Memory, Situation Awareness, Self-Critiques, Strategy Selection

The Power to See the Invisible

Characteristics of Expertise

6

Indexing the BrainThe Gilligan Exercise

• Once a framework of knowledge is placed in long-term memory only a cue is necessary to retrieve it.

• Information is best stored (memorized) by linking it with other similar information• Ironically, more is better

• Information learned by personal experience is more resilient• Humor, excitement, anger, embarrassment,

sympathy, enjoyment, fear, etc.

5

• Multiple Information Sources• Incomplete, unreliable, confusing or conflicting

information• Rapidly changing, evolving scenarios• Requirement for coordination• Adverse physical conditions• Time pressure• High work or information load• Auditory overload or interference• Physical threat

Stressors4

What are the colors of the letters?

YellowBlueRedGreenBrownPurpleWhiteGrayPinkOrange

YellowBlueRedGreenBrownPurpleWhiteGrayPinkOrange

JnprtpkndlZtvHtwqsNzxtoAuplwRbxeaObctWiuePtmayr

Programming the Brain3

• As high as 78% improvement in TADMUS experiments

• Automated and ControlledProcessing♦ Software for the Brain

• Stress Inoculation

• Recognitional Primed Decision-making♦ Pattern Recognition♦ Pattern Correction♦ Pattern Completion

Training Works!2

• RPD Model is descriptive, not prescriptive♦ You can’t decide to use it, you can’t avoid using it

• Expertise can’t be trained, it must be learned!♦ Some things have to be learned but can’t be taught!♦ Engage in deliberate practice♦ Compile an extensive experience bank♦ Obtain feedback that is accurate, diagnostic and reasonably

timely♦ Enrich experiences by reviewing prior experiences to derive

new insights and lessons

• There’s nothing more practical than a good theory.(Scientific Adage)

Training Expertise1

So what are the Implications?