critical thinking in dod acquisitions...team, led by wag dodge, tasked to put out a lightning caused...

$: Critical Thinking in DoD Acquisitions...Team, led by Wag Dodge, tasked to put out a lightning caused fire at top of ridge of Mann Gulch. Wag was a veteran firefighte\ , rest of team$
Source:Unsplash.com

Dave Riel• Professor of Acquisition Management

since January 2010• Sr. Mgr for Manufacturing and CI• 20-yrs USAF career• Enjoy thinking about stuff in a different

way– Photographer– Traveler

[email protected]

3

DoD Report to Congress (Aug 17)

Comments regarding “Acquisition Workforce”

“…teaching … emphasis needs to be on critical thinking, risk management, flexible decision-making and working with Warfighters to evaluate trades pursuant to delivering capability … requires culture change and the re-education of our workforce”

Restructuring the DoD(AT&L) Organization and Chief Management Officer Organization

ASPECTS OF CRITICAL THINKING:THINKING FAST AND SLOW

“He had an impression, but some of his impressions are illusions”

- Daniel Kahneman

Source:smallbusiness.ng

COPYRIGHT NOTICE: This course includes content from a variety of sources to provide DAU students with a comprehensive representation of relevant industry information. Use of this content is for educational purposes only. Modification, reproduction and distribution are prohibited and may be subject to penalty under the law. More information on terms of use of each of the items can be found at their respective websites. By accessing, you acknowledge and accept these terms.

TWO MODES OF THINKING

System 2 Thinking

System 1 Thinking

Source:Unsplash.com

Source:Docorman.com

Source: Amazon.com

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Dual Mode Model Intuition: Associative memory Example: Example "she approached a bank" Financial? Shore? Food? Person? Female animal? Intuition Unconscious, effortless, rapid Passive, it just happens to you Computational Deliberate Active, takes mental exertion Deliberate Lazy-only works when it is told Reflective and connective

CRITICAL THINKING DEFINITION

“Reasonable reflective thinking aimed at deciding what to

believe or what to do”- Robert Ennis

“Analyzing and evaluating our thinking with a view to improving it”

- Linda Elder

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Paul and Elder (University of Louisville) // Philosophy Analyze: (Merriam) : to study (something) closely and carefully : to learn the nature and relationship of the parts of (something) by a close and careful examination. Evaluate: (Merriam) to judge the value or condition of (someone or something) in a careful and thoughtful way. Aimed Develop a clear robust understanding of what you are pondering, questioning or concluding Reasonable Explore the reasons supporting your thinking Are there universal building blocks of reasoning? Reflective Evaluate the quality of your thinking Are there universal standards? Decisions Be prepared to act on your thinking Confident in the outcome

V 15.1

Adaptive Acquisition Framework

“we didn’t want a one-size fits all approach. Instead, we have developed an AAF that allows PMs to choose the right pathway for work they are undertaking to deliver capability to Warfighter as quickly as possible.”

Ms. Stacy Cummings, DASD, Acq Enablers 2019 “The goal of the AAF is to empower innovation and common-sense decision making through the decision-making process, while also maintaining discipline in our practices and procedures..”

Mr. Kevin Fahey, ASD, Acquisition 2019

“This policy embraces the delegation of decision-making tailoring program oversight to minimize unnecessary bureaucratic processes and actively managing risks based on the unique characteristics of the capability being acquired”

Ms. Ellen Lord, USD (A&S) 2019

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V 15.1

Adaptive Acquisition Framework

“we didn’t want a one-size fits all approach. Instead, we have developed an AAF that allows PMs to choose the right pathway for work they are undertaking to deliver capability to Warfighter as quickly as possible.”

Ms. Stacy Cummings, DASD, Acq Enablers 2019 “The goal of the AAF is to empower innovation and common-sense decision making through the decision-making process, while also maintaining discipline in our practices and procedures..”

Mr. Kevin Fahey, ASD, Acquisition 2019

“This policy embraces the delegation of decision-making tailoring program oversight to minimize unnecessary bureaucratic processes and actively managing risks based on the unique characteristics of the capability being acquired”

Ms. Ellen Lord, USD (A&S) 2019

System 2System 2

System 1?

8

IntuitiveA

cts

on u

s

• Substitutes easy questions for hard questions

• Believes things that are easy to believe

• Operates using habits

9

Presenter

Presentation Notes

KSA = knowledge, skills abilities Intuitive having the ability to know or understand things without any proof or evidence : having or characterized by intuition. : based on or agreeing with what is known or understood without any proof or evidence : known or understood by intuition..

10

READ THIS

Source:Thinking Fast and Slow

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READ THIS


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READ THIS

ANNAPPROACHED

THE BANK


ANNAPPROACHED

THE BANK

Source:Unsplash.com

Source:Unsplash.com13

SYSTEM 1

Source: partshowpartbusiness.com

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Source: https://partshowpartbusiness.com/2013/01/optical-illusion-faces-free-trick-download/ The brain automatically sees what it wants to see and the mouth is a very prominent feature of the human face. A beautiful woman must be smiling so the brain assumes a smile and interprets accordingly.

SYSTEM 1

Source: partshowpartbusiness.com15

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The brain automatically sees what it wants to see and the mouth is a very prominent feature of the human face. A beautiful woman must be smiling so the brain assumes a smile and interprets accordingly.

As printed on the page, is the figure on the right larger than the figure on the left?

Source: unexpectedpages.com16

As printed on the page, is the figure on the right larger than the figure on the left?

Source: unexpectedpages.com17

WHICH LINE IS LONGER?

Muller-Lyer illusioon18

WHICH LINE IS LONGER?

Muller-Lyer illusioon19

ISN’T SYSTEM 1 AMAZING?

20

7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PROV3 H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG

7H1NG5. 1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5! D0 Y0U UND3R574ND 7H15 M3554G3 W3LL 3N0UGH 70 1D3N715Y 7H3

NUM83R 831NG U53D 70 R3PL4C3 ‘A’?

READ THIS!

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SYSTEM 1 ROCKS!

7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PROV3 H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG 7H1NG5.

1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5! D0 Y0U UND3R574ND 7H15 M3554G3 W3LL 3N0UGH 70 1D3N715Y 7H3 NUM83R

831NG U53D 70 R3PL4C3 ‘A’?

This Message Serves To Prove How Our Minds Can Do Amazing Things.

Impressive Things! Do You UnderstandThis Message Well Enough To Identify

The Number Being Used To Replace “A?”22

SYSTEM 1 THINKING

“Autopilot” -- no conscious effort Draws on heuristics (a.k.a. mental

shortcuts, rules of thumb, associations) to make decisions

Extremely easy & efficient -- brain can move on

Why not use this thinking all the time?

Source arizonalawgroup.com

Source: amazon.com

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Why not use it? The association can be wrong. The heuristic can take away better options that were never considered before Your brain never grows and learns. (“if your coasting, your going down hill”)

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Source: Men In Black

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Charles Schwab Commercial

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SYSTEM 1 VS. SYSTEM 2

12 X 12 = ?

Presenter

Presentation Notes


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SYSTEM 1 VS. SYSTEM 2

13 X 13 = ?

Presenter

Presentation Notes


DeliberateW

e ac

t on

it

Thinks through the issue but burns a lot of glucose along the way

Source:Unsplash.com

Source: CreativeCommons.org

Source: poly.google.com

Source:clipartmag.com

Source:Unsplash.com

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Example of system 2 thinking is turning left into traffic, Empathic listening, learning new skill. Set up Schwabb video by emphasizing for the transition the “Why?” part of System II thinking.

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TRAGEDY AT MANN GULCH

• August 5, 1949

• Extremely dry

• 97 degrees

• 16 Smokejumpers

• Routine 5:00 fire

1

2

Source: wordpress.com

But…then the routine took a turn for the “worse”

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Team, led by Wag Dodge, tasked to put out a lightning caused fire at top of ridge of Mann Gulch. Wag was a veteran firefighter, rest of team was inexperienced. Dropped at top of southern ridge at 3:30 (“1”). Gathered gear and stopped at “2” to get a quick bite and configure gear before climbing up to fire. Team relaxed and jovial thinking they were just fighting a routine small ridge fire (aka 5:00 fire). Winds carried sparks to base of gulch and quickly burned up the gulch marching toward the team. One yelled they saw smoke down the hill and Wag told them to quickly break camp and march up the hill. The fire drew closer and he gave the order to drop all gear and run. Panic ensued and all climbed the steep hill as quickly as possible. When breaking from the trees into a hillside meadow, Wag suddenly got the idea to light a match, burn a pre-fire and then throw a wet towel over his face in the middle of the ashes. When he called the rest to join him they ignored him and kept running/climbing. Wag survived with two others who were able to find a crevice to hide in. When asked what made him think of the pre-fire he said the idea just popped into his head. Why did 13 smoke jumpers die in this fire? What assumptions did Wag Dodgers make about the day’s event? Why did they ignore his pleas to follow him into the middle of the grass fire? What system II actions could have been taken to avoid this tragedy?

Source: wordpress.com

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Presentation Notes


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TRAGEDY AT MANN GULCH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHNl3EucGYQ

Presenter

Presentation Notes


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SYSTEM 2

123 x 38 = ?

What acquisition pathway or contracting strategy is best for my program?

What US strategy would be most effective in protecting US people and economy from future pandemics?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

123 x 38 = 4674

SYSTEM 2 THINKING

Challenges your heuristics Seeks to validate your “intuition” or develop new

associations that improve your decision or beliefs Grows your System 1 bench strength

Source:Unsplash.com

Source:advantageperformance.com32

WHEN SYSTEM 1 AND SYSTEM 2 INTERACT

Source: amazon.com

Source: empoweredsoul.com

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The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way. You dislike people long before you know much about

them. You trust or distrust strangers without knowing why. You feel that an enterprise is bound to succeed with

analyzing it.Whether you state them or not, you often have answers to questions that you do not completely understand, relying on evidence that can neither explain or defend.

-- Thinking Fast and Slow (pg. 97)

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Four MBTI Preference Scales

Extraversion – IntroversionE - I Dichotomy

Where do you prefer to focus your attention – and get your energy?

Sensing – Intuition S - N Dichotomy

How do you prefer to take in information?

Thinking – Feeling T - F Dichotomy

How do you make decisions?

Judging – PerceivingJ - P Dichotomy

How do you deal with the outer world?

Everyone Can Do Both, But One Is Usually Preferred And Better Developed

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“Extroverts have little or no grasp of introversion. They assume that company, especially their own, is always welcome. They cannot imagine why someone would need to be alone; indeed, they often take umbrage at the suggestion. As often as I have tried to explain the matter to extroverts, I have never sensed that any of them really understood. They listen for a moment and then go back to barking and yipping.”

-- Jonathan Rauch, Caring for Your Introvert

Tension builds on the Lewis & Clark Expedition

There is often a natural tensionthat builds up between ‘s

and ‘s

EI

Source: Unknown

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Can You Find Differences…

Sensing Intuition

MELVIN VASQUEZ/RD.COM, SHUTTERSTOCK

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Sensing (S) vs. Intuitive (N)

Source: gocomics.com

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Do you sense being micromanaged?

Source: clipart-library.comSource: clipart-library.com

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Do you sense being micromanaged?Might it be something else?

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It’s NOT About the Nail

Source: YouTube

T F

Spontaneously Criticizes

Spontaneously Appreciates

“Ok, that was better…next time we’ll practice landing right-side up!”

T’s May Seem Cold & Condescending To F’s

F’s May Seem Fuzzy-Minded & Emotional To T’s

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Source: meme.com

Source: Unknown

Characteristics and Tendencies

The Thinking-Feeling Pair is the only MBTI dichotomy that is gender related. 75% of all men have a preference for Thinking

and 75% of all women, have preference for Feeling

Interesting Information

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Judging Perceiving

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Do you find yourself to be more spontaneous or more organized?

Source: US News and World ReportPhoto by Getty Images/Vetta

Likes Clear Limits And Categories

Likes Freedom To Explore Without Limits

J’s May Seem Demanding, Rigid & Uptight to P’s

P’s May Seem Disorganized, Messy & Irresponsible To J’s

J PCharacteristics and Tendencies

Source: unsplash.com Source: unsplash.com

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Source: wkfr.com

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System 1

Where thinking occurs in your brain

Thinking is hard work so the brain uses mental shortcuts or “rules of thumb” (AKA “heuristics”) to solve a problem or

make a decision quickly and efficiently

Striatum – Passive thinking occurs here!

Hippocampus – Active thinking occurs here!

Source: healthcmi.com Source: ucla.edu

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgments and make decisions. They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others. Another view: a heuristic is a quick, informal, and intuitive algorithm your brain uses to generate an approximate answer to a reasoning question quick, commonsense principles we apply to solve a problem or make a decision. Heuristics: Compare and contrast with a software algorithm. Heuristics have known criteria but unknown outcomes (probabilistic) Trial-and-error procedure for solving problems (or reaching an unclear goal) through incremental exploration, and by employing a known criteria to unknown factors. For example, trying to climb a fog shrouded hill by making every step an upward-step. In journalism, a well known heuristic is asking Who? What? When? Where? Why? in investigating a news story. A heuristic employs independent discovery, and relies heavily on common sense, creativity, and learning from experience. Unlike an algorithm, however, it offers no guaranty of solving any problem. From Greek 'heuriskein,' to discover. See also lateral thinking. Other heuristic examples include: Draw a model, work backward, make a systematic list, etc.

Heuristics Can Help You

How do you catch a fly ball?

Note: Wind speed and ball spin is not considered in this equation

Source: Gerd Gigerenzer

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

A person catching a ball behaves as though he had solved a set of differential equations in predicting the trajectory of the ball…at some subconscious level, something functionally equivalent to the mathematical calculation is going on…a heuristic

How do you catch a fly ball?

Note: Wind speed and ball spin is not considered in this equation

The Gaze Heuristic: With ball in the air…1. Fix your gaze on the ball2. Start running, and3. Adjust your running speed so the angle of gaze remains constant

The target question is the assessment you intend to produce. The heuristic question is the simpler question that you answer instead

Source: Gerd Gigerenzer

Heuristics Can Help You

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

A person catching a ball behaves as though he had solved a set of differential equations in predicting the trajectory of the ball…at some subconscious level, something functionally equivalent to the mathematical calculation is going on…a heuristic

SOMETIMES THIS WORKS WELL ANDSOMETIMES LEADS TO SERIOUS ERRORS …

How much would you contribute to save strays

How happy is your life?

How do you feel about the President’s COVID 19 response?

How much emotion do you feel for this dog?

What is your mood right now?

How do you feel about the President?

Target Question Heuristic Question

Source: advantagenew.com

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THINK OF HEURISTICS LIKE SPEARFISHING

IT WILL GET YOU CLOSE, BUT YOU MAY MISS THE MARK

Source: munnscience.com

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APPLYING TO ACQUISITION

“He likes the project, so he thinks its cost are low and its benefits are high.”

Source: NARA 6452075

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• Program began in 1983 as a proposed long-range, LO, high-payload medium attack aircraft to replace carrier-based A-6 by mid-1990s

• On 13 Jan 88, McDonnell-Douglas/General Dynamic awarded RDTE contract– FPIF w/TP of $4.38B and CP of $4.84B– First Flight scheduled for 17 Jun 90

• Canceled 7 Jan 91 by SECDEF Cheney – largest termination in DoD history– At least $1B over budget; 8,000 lbs overweight; 18 months behind schedule– So expensive estimated to take up 70% of Navy budget within 3 yrs– Over 20 years of litigation – 1 Jun 09, ktrs ordered to pay $1.35B plus $1.45B interest

• May 10: Supreme Court set aside Appeals Court decision, sends case back to federal courts circuit

• Jan 14: Case was settled w/Boeing & General Dynamics agreeing to pay $200M each to Navy

• Six months earlier, A-12 enjoyed wide support from Congress & SECDEF

13 Jan 88Contract awarded

7Jan 91Contract

Terminated

17Jun 90First FlightScheduled


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• Clear program in trouble – largely ignored by McAir; GD; Navy and DoD– EVMS identified “significant and increasing negative cost and schedule variances”– Ktr team “made best case projections based upon overly optimistic recovery plans”

• PM’s Production Oversight team’s review expected “firm design in hand” and “assembly tooling … designed, built and on floor” by Sep 89

– Early evidence first flight date of June 1990 unattainable• NAVAIR analyst warned of >$1B over ceiling – PM didn’t believe

– Pentagon analyst reviewed reports, concluding A-12 “was in very deep trouble”– Warnings offset at Nov 89 Pentagon review by PM’s “very spirited defense of program”– OSD budget analyst report (5000# over, 2 yrs behind, $500M >) stirred controversy -- withdrawn

• Great political pressure for A-12 success– If A-12 failed, Navy would cede deep-strike bombing to USAF – jeopardizing future $4B funding for

aircraft carriers and other warships– Numerous examples where unfavorable info either dismissed or suppressed

• Due to fundamental design deficiencies, unlikely program was ever salvageable• On 28 Nov 90, Beach report concludes A-12 PM “erred in judgment”

– CAPT PM and RADM PEO removed and censured; USD(A) resigns on 13 Dec 9056

13 Jan 88Contract awarded

7Jan 91Contract

Terminated

Aug 89Cost

AnalysisIgnored

Nov 89Pentagon Review

Summer 89Production

TeamReview


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Source: clker.com

Source: nosweatpublicspeaking.com

Source: Thinking Fast and Slow

IS THE HEIGHT OF THE TALLESTREDWOOD MORE OR LESS THAN 1,200 FT?

Source: unsplash.com

58Source: unsplash.com

WHAT’S YOUR BEST GUESS ABOUT THEHEIGHT OF THE TALLEST REDWOOD?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Hyperion, the world's tallest living tree, is a coast redwood and is no less than 379.1 ft (115.55 m) tall! This enormous tree was discovered only in August 2006 in a remote part of the Redwood National Park, California.

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BEWARE OF SYSTEM 1 ANCHORING YOU!

System 1 tries its best to construct a world in which the anchor is true!

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Negotiations Current policies Tailor In vs Tailor Out – are you still anchored? Contract Type – FFP for FRP? You tell me some

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BEWARE OF SYSTEM 1 ANCHORING YOU!

System 1 tries its best to construct a world in which the anchor is true!

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Negotiations Current policies Tailor In vs Tailor Out – are you still anchored? Contract Type – FFP for FRP? You tell me some

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SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT YOUR THINKING

System 1 is amazing: Skilled to deal with vast amounts of information

swiftly and efficientlySource: Thinking Fast and Slow

Source: Unknown

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System 1 is amazing: Distinguishes between normal and surprise events …

generates idea of what was expected, and automatically searches for cause

Source: imgur.com

Effect of Contract Types• Law mandates MDA authorization/ documentation to use cost-type contracts in

MDAP development and prohibits cost-type contracts in MDAP production – Our view is that contract types must be tailored to the specific situation, with the risk associated

with the work to be performed being the most important factor• Analysis showed no statistical correlation between performance and broad contract type

among 433 MDAP development and 440 early production contracts (2013 Report)• Fixed-price contracts exhibit lower cost growth because they are used primarily in lower-

risk situations—not because they inherently lead to lower cost growth– Price can be higher on fixed price contract because contractor prices in as much risk as possible

to shift risk to DoD• When cost control is predetermined and formulaically incentivized, vendors respond

– Predictable incentives, not fixed pricing, is key -- simply considering fixed-price contracts is too simplistic because:

• Some cost-type contracts also have strong incentives to control cost growth• Both cost-type and fixed-price contracts can be modified, i.e., work content growth• Some fixed-price contracts do not provide information on costs, i.e., govt risks paying unnecessarily

high prices on FFP contracts– FFP contracts do not share savings with the government—even when risks are low– Using FFP contracts in full-rate production may incentivize contractors to withhold cost-reduction ideas and

investments until then, when they keep all the cost-reduction rewards– If no govt insight into these savings, subsequent production lot prices may continue to be higher than necessary

Performance of the DAS 2014 Report

(Pg. 87-92)

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System 1 Heuristic: Ease with which instances come to mind

Not necessarily simpler or more frugal than original question

Source: MinuteVideos.com

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System 2 Engagement: Could replace heuristic by focus on content

System 1 generally right, except when it’s not!


System 2 is who we think we are …

… but it often endorses the ideas and feelings generated by System 1

Source: teespring.com

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CONFIRMATION BIAS

Internet is fertile ground for confirmation bias…tailored content is

causing divergent opinions to disappear altogether

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xMaR8au-YU (1:34) Confirmation Bias is the fallacy of lending extra weight to information and arguments that confirm your own beliefs while disregarding or downplaying evidence that disputes them. This comes in several forms: Seeking evidence for a belief one already holds, or eagerly accepting it, while disregarding or downplaying contradictory evidence. Often known by the ironic name "Proof by Selected Instances". Interpreting ambiguous information with a focus on how it favors one's own beliefs. Rationalizing contradictory evidence in a way that still affirms one's own beliefs.

Is digital technology splitting society into discrete, ideologically like-minded tribes that read, watch, or listen only to news that confirms their own beliefs?

How about you? Do you stay inside your own “echo chamber”? (Be Honest!)

Food for thought

Presenter

Presentation Notes

An echo chamber is a metaphorical description of a situation in which information, ideas, or beliefs are amplified or reinforced by communication and repetition inside a defined system. Inside a figurative echo chamber, official sources often go unquestioned and different or competing views are censored, disallowed, or otherwise underrepresented.

There is enormous pressures within a military service to be optimistic about a program, and everyone who’s ever had my job has had to push back against those pressures … We’ve had a lot of disasters in acquisition because the services believed what they wanted to believe.

-- Frank Kendall, USD (AT&L), May 2015

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xMaR8au-YU (1:34) Confirmation Bias is the fallacy of lending extra weight to information and arguments that confirm your own beliefs while disregarding or downplaying evidence that disputes them. This comes in several forms: Seeking evidence for a belief one already holds, or eagerly accepting it, while disregarding or downplaying contradictory evidence. Often known by the ironic name "Proof by Selected Instances". Interpreting ambiguous information with a focus on how it favors one's own beliefs. Rationalizing contradictory evidence in a way that still affirms one's own beliefs.


Questioning System 1 must be intentional and consistent

Needs to become part of your System 1

1. See signs of cognitive minefield2. Slow down3. Ask System 2 to step in

Source: marriagearchitects.com

Source: i.pinimg.com

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Organizations must encourage a culture in which people watch out for one another’s System 1 over-reliance

DoD organizational construct not ideal

Source: ieeeusa.org

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MECHANISTIC ORGANIZATIONSCharacteristics

High levels of hierarchical structure and control Clearly defined roles and responsibilities Written policies and procedures Specialized, standardized tasks Centralized decision-making processes

Advantages Higher efficiencies through lessened variation Improved predictability

Disadvantages Restricted innovation, flexibility and creativity Can be problematic in a complex and changing environment

Organization designed to run like a machine in a “routinized, efficient, reliable, and predictable way”

Source: clipart.com

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Does that organizational structure enhance or inhibit

critical thinking?

Source: twitter.com Source: twitter.com

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So, do we throw out the mechanistic organizational

construct?


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MECHANISTIC ORGANIZATIONS-- REALITIES AND BENEFITS --

Retaining overall mechanistic organization construct Ensure fair treatment for employees Bounding innovators from pushing their inclinations too far …

leading to belligerence, chaos, disastrous experimentation, and unprincipled opportunism

Age and size of Department of Defense Tendency towards mechanistic behavior -- more rigid & less

adaptable to change Rigidity and cumbersome environmental change response Can promote decentralization by allowing lower-level managers

autonomy and flexibility while retaining control over strategic decisions

Use of policies and statutes as tools versus obstacles Can enhance critical thought and negate mavericks that circumvent

strictly in name of expediency Can encourage risk-taking along with its potential for failure, but

resist dispersion of boundary/control systems designed to balance warfighter needs and being good stewards of taxpayers’ money

76

Presenter

Presentation Notes

McDonalds, with its 33,000 restaurants and 1.7 million workers across 119 nations, understand that their 68 million customers per day are demanding changes that their famously consistent and efficient mechanistic organization is slow to handle (Hatch & Cunliffe, 2013). As a result, McDonalds is edging towards a more organic approach by providing business units greater flexibility and autonomy to meet local customer demands

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LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS

Characteristics of learning organizations Little to no hierarchical social structure Free flow of info -- encourage new ways of doing business Continuous improvement of established procedures Change and risk-taking supported

Advantages of learning organizations Maximum flexibility Dynamically responsive to changes in environment Learns from mistake Adapts to new realities more readily Better decision-making in non-problematic situations, i.e.,

innovationOrganizations where people continually expand their capacity to create results,

where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together

– Peter Senge, The Fifth Disciple: The Art and Practice of Learning Organizations78

FRAMING ASSUMPTIONS-- 2015 DODI 5000.02 (AND LATEST DODI 5000.85: MCA) --

• Any supposition (explicit or implicit) central in shaping cost, schedule, or performance expectations of acquisition program (i.e., think about your System 1) Generally a small number (3-5) of FAs with following

attributes: Critical: Significantly affects program expectations No work-arounds: Consequences cannot be easily mitigated Foundational: Not derivative of other assumptions Program specific: Not generically applicable to all programs

Created and “owned” by PM; reviewed and approved by leaders

Deepens learning from single-loop learning to double-loop learning79

Presenter

Presentation Notes

In essence, framing assumptions deepens learning from single-loop learning to double-loop learning, the distinction being that single-loop learning pertains to improving the current process; whereas, double-loop learning requires the organization to question the assumptions upon which their current actions are based (DiBella, 2010). As Morgan (2006) explains, ““double-loop” learning depends on what is sometimes described as the art of framing and reframing … organizational members must be skilled in understanding the paradigms, metaphors, mind-sets, or mental models that underpin how the organization works … [and] able to develop new ones when appropriate” (pp.89-90). Implementation of these new ideas, employing the best practices and acquisition framework found in DoDI 5000.02 as a guide, becomes critical as program managers and other functional members of the acquisition community will only pursue change through critical thought if they believe those ideas will be fairly evaluated and implemented with some level of risk accepted (Garvin, 1993). Story: An example of where a disciplined review of framing assumption would have been beneficial is found in a current DoD weapon systems acquisition program. The program’s production line was interrupted in order to produce critically needed assets of a different configuration, an urgent operational need (UON). However, in recent negotiations on cost and schedule for a follow-on production lot, both the government program office and contractor were still pursuing full rate production of the previous configuration with little valid cost data to base a firm-fixed price contract-type decision on. The framing assumption that was not critically thought through should have been, “the low rate initial production (LRIP) line will be stable.” With framing assumptions established and an understanding that they were no longer valid, this program could have benefitted from an additional LRIP lot using a Fixed Price Incentive (Firm Target) (FPIF) – type contract with an aggressive share line (50/50) to encourage the contractor to aggressively pursue cost savings initiatives

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LAYERED LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6 Tier 6

Tier 5

Tier 6 Tier 6

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7 Tier 7

Tier 6

Tier 7

Tier 8 Tier 8

Tier 7

Tier 8 Tier 8

Tier 5

Tier 6 Tier 6

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5 Tier 5

Tier 4

Tier 5 Tier 5

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4 Tier 4

Tier 3

Tier 4 Tier 4

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ADOPTING LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS

DoD Cultural Change Impractical to expect DoD as a whole to become learning organization

Differentiation and integration – challenging, but not uncommon Differentiation refers to single company operating different

organizational constructs Allows for two different constructs to co-exist -- mechanistic and learning

Integration refers to collaboration needed to achieve common goals, i.e., allows for successful co-existence

Need to incentivize cultural transition from one that desires hierarchical control to one that values innovation and encourages debate

Requires change in cultural values and artifacts Responsible risk-taking preferred and failure acceptable

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Presentation Notes

In the U.S. technology sector, companies need to stay on cutting technological edge by developing and capitalizing on change. Their research and development (R&D) department encourage innovation through organizational metaphors such as organism or brain, i.e., learning organizations (Morgan, 2006). However, their production department should efficiently produce quality products, a task more conducive to mechanistic organizations

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WHEN DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO USE…• System 1 Thinking

• Recognizable pattern• Widely accepted principle• Perceived consequences of

delayed decision too great• Minimal

risks/consequences or opportunities

• System 2 Thinking• No heuristic to draw on• Assumptions are in

question• Source of idea/problem not

well understood• Large risks/consequences

or opportunitiesSource: ibpsychmatters.com

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An employee or coworker comes in and tells you about System ½ and says they are going to use this slide as a guide. What cautions or emphasis would you offer to him/her. Where do my system I “rules” or heuristics come from? Can they be purposefully developed? What comes out of our system 1 thinking? Judgment

- Get them on the board- Use organizing tools- Create areas to think out loud

• Grow your domain knowledge• Nurture System 1 bench strength• Deepens all standards of thinking

Source: homeword.com

Source: topsoint-screener.com

Source: aliem.com

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Psychological safety ~ illusion of consultation

Source:Unsplash.com

critical thinking in dod acquisitions...team, led by wag dodge, tasked to put out a lightning caused...

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