Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting -

Decision Support under Uncertain Climates

Climate and Agriculture

Climate is the major driver of agriculture• What to plant• Where to plant it• How to manage it

Soils play a major role Other factors

• Human needs, market availability & access, etc.

Farming is a Risky Business

Excess Rainfall, Flooding Drought Freezes Wind Hurricanes, Tornados Seasonal variations in temperature, timing

and amounts of rainfall – not as dramatic, but major impacts

Daily Weather EffectsTemperature

Vegetative and reproductive development, duration of crop season

Leaf area expansion Photosynthesis Dry matter partitioning, grain vs.

vegetative Potential evapotranspiration, water stress Soil organic matter transformations,

nutrient availability

Daily Weather Effects

Rainfall Soil Water Availability Water stress and its effects on growth

processesSolar Radiation

Photosynthesis Potential evapotranspiration, thus actual

evapotranspiration and plant water stress Temperature in soil & canopy (microclimate)

Daily Weather Effects

CO2

Photosynthesis Potential evapotranspiration & crop water

use

Daylength Reproductive development Dry matter partitioning

Climate ChangeIncrease in CO2 and Temperature

Climate ChangeIncrease in CO2 and Temperature

Climate Change and Climate Variability

The impact of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production and the potential for mitigation and adaptation Future issues can only be studied with

computer simulation models “What-If” type of scenarios Risks and uncertainties associated with

using models Involvement of stakeholders

Climate Forecast Applications:Bridging the gap between producers and users

of climate information

• Discover user needs for climate information and perceptions of climate risks

• Evaluate usefulness and limitations of climate forecasts

• Translate climate forecasts into decision support for agriculture

• Demonstrate successful forecast applications working in close collaboration with agricultural extension

Climate Change: How is Agriculture Responding?

Support Industries, Institutions• Research (e.g., soil carbon

sequestration, technologies for production, harvesting, storing, packaging, transport, and marketing)

• Plant breeding, producing heat/drought tolerant & disease resistant crops

Producers, local level• High interest in risk management

& climate variability• Long term investments?

Local Lessons Learned

High level of interest in weather Interest in climate, but this interest has to be

developed locally• Individual farmers, ranchers, foresters• Institutions (i.e., Extension, researchers)

Research alone is not sufficient; participatory, co-learning approach is essential

Extension Service involvement is key to successful delivery of information to farmers and other stakeholders

Local Lessons Learned

Integrated initiatives are needed, participatory approach for co-learning and dissemination involving a wide range of talents and institutions

Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on changes in climate variability and extreme events

Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on farmers being able to prepare and adapt