cruise liner schedule
DESCRIPTION
Cruise Liner Schedule. Jason Deleon Steve Rockwell Will Wathen. Background. Vacation Cruise Industry (2012) Over 20 Million passengers Generated over $42 Billion in economic activity (US) OR Consultants hired by Major Cruise Liner Analyze current voyage network Minimize cost - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Cruise Liner Schedule
Jason Deleon Steve Rockwell
Will Wathen
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Background
• Vacation Cruise Industry (2012)– Over 20 Million passengers – Generated over $42 Billion in economic activity (US)
• OR Consultants hired by Major Cruise Liner– Analyze current voyage network– Minimize cost– Itinerary recommendations– Analyze resiliency of network– Impacts of catalysts
*Paid hefty sum for analysis, no need to question resultsM
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Real World Problem
• Network Design• Measures of Effectiveness on an itinerary for
an n day cruise– Cost (Transit and Port Fees)– Fun - Utility
• Analyze effects of desired fun– Relate to target demographics
• Impacts of catalyst i.e. weather, coup
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Network Map Overview
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Network Description
• Cruise Liner Voyage Network
– Consists of all possible voyage routes
– Connects all possible ports for a particular cruise liner (Royal Caribbean)
– Time-layered network • Each layer is a day
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Network Design
• Nodes: Port on a given cruise day i.e Haiti 3– 16 Ports x 8 days = 128 nodes – S & T = Homeport = Fort Lauderdale, FL
• Node Data: Fun Factor, Lat/Long
• Edges: Connection of two ports from one time layer to another
– Bahamas 2 ------ Haiti 4 (Two Day Transit)
• Edge Data: Cost = Transit Cost + Port FeesM
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Five Day Time Layer Network (Subset)
Day 0
Day 5
Day 4
Day 2
Day 3
Day 1
HA
BAH HA DR
DRHABAHFL
DR
FL
FL BAH
BAHFL
BAHFL
BAH HA DRFL
HA DR
HA DR
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Five Day Time Layer Network (Subset)
Day 0
Day 5
Day 4
Day 2
Day 3
Day 1
HA
BAH HA DR
DRHABAHFL
DR
FL
FL BAH
BAHFL
BAHFL
BAH HA DRFL
HA DR
HA DR
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Nodes
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Start/End Node
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Example of Route
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Day 0
Day 1
Day 3
Day 2
Day 5
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Mathematical Model
Shortest Path MILP• Minimizing Port Costs & Transit Costs • Netflow Constraints
• Design Constraints (Real World):• No overnight stays in port• Cannot return to visited port other than Homeport• Length of cruise in days
• AnalysisFun Factor constraint
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Assumptions
• Direct Path - Navigable Route• Great Circle Distance• Average Speed of ship is constant : 25 knots• Max Range: 400 NM/day• Fun Factor: Excursions/Affordability• Port Fees: $10-$25 per person. • Haiti- $0 port fees - Long Term Lease in
Labadee (Royal Caribbean).
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Situation Dependent Variables
• Travel Miles per day• Cruise Length in days• Cost of Fuel• Fuel Consumption rate• Ship speed • Port Fees• Fun Factor• Range/day* All Variables can be modified to correspond to real cruise network
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Results: Min Cost
• 5-day Route:– FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3, FortLaud5– Cost: $425,194
• 7 -day Route: – FortLaud0, CaymanI2, Haiti4, Bahamas6, FortLaud7– Cost: $ 610,296
• 10-day Route:– FortLaud0, Bahamas1, StThomas4, PuertoRico5,
StMaarten6, Haiti8, FortLaud10– Cost: $ 891,990
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Adding Utility
• Added Utility to the model– Fun Factor
• Utilized Constraint to ensure a certain level of “Fun”
• Increased Fun Factor from minimal feasible solution to maximum feasible solution
– Cost Vs. Fun Relationship– Demographic Comparisons
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Utility: Fun Factor
• Cruise Length Fixed at 7 days• 16: FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7
– Cost: $ 610,296 • 19: FortLaud0, CaymanI2 , DomRep4, Bahamas6, FortLaud7
– Cost: $ 721,276 • 21: FortLaud0, StThomas3, PuertoRico4, DomRep5, FortLaud7
– Cost: $ 751,934
• 22: FortLaud0, StMaarten3, StThomas4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 – Cost: $ 836,982
• 24: FortLaud0, DomRep2 , Aruba3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7 – Cost: $ 902,282
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Fun Factor vs. Cost
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Target Market (<$75k)
- Marketing cruises based upon demographic.- Design cruise for family with combined income <$75k (~35% of passengers).
- Priority of customer may be price and not necessarily itinerary.
- Example: 16: FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7
Cost: $ 610,296
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Target Market (>$75k)
- Marketing cruises based upon demographic.- Design cruise for family with combined income >$75k (~65% of passengers).
- Priority of customer may be itinerary and not necessarily price.
- Example: - 24: FortLaud0, DomRep2 , Aruba3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7
Cost: $ 902,282
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Multi-Segment Strategy
- Utilizing a strategy to target multiple market segments that are based upon demographics.
- If only one itinerary is marketed, what would attract the most customers?
- Low price while providing moderate/high level of fun factor.
-Example:• 21: FortLaud0, StThomas3, PuertoRico4, DomRep5, FortLaud7
– Cost: $ 751,934
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Attack
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Attack
Scenario:• 7- day Itinerary for “most fun” cruise route• 2 days prior to departure
– Hurricane Thelma hits– Randomly takes out ports– Follow on attacks
• Consultants called to find alternate route with a near equivalent fun factor
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Max Fun Route - No Attack
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1 Attack
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2 Attacks
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3 Attacks
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4 Attacks
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5 Attacks
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6 Attacks
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7 Attacks
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8 Attacks
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9 Attacks
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10 Attacks
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Resiliency
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Conclusion
• Shortest Path MILP– Minimizing Port Costs & Transit Costs– Analyzed impact of Fun Factor
• Positive Correlation (Fun & Cost)– Most Fun Cruise 1.5X as expensive as least Fun– Translates directly to Customer– Recommended Cruises based on Utility value
• Effects of Attacks & Resilience• Key Take-aways
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Follow-on Work
-Enable User Interface -Multiple Cruise Ship Types-Alternate Homeport Analysis-Add Granularity Detailed Routes, Detailed Cost Variables
-Model Risks of traversing Bermuda Triangle
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References
-crusing.org/regulatory/issues-facts-cruiseweb.com/royal-caribbean/eastern-caribbean/#itineraries
-vacationstogo.com/cruise_port/Caribbean.cfm-www.timeanddate.com/-www.latlong.net/ -www.cruisemarketwatch.com
-Professor Ned Dimitrov’s Brain
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Questions?Cruise Liner Schedule
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