8/8/2019 CT 2010 Mid-Term Elections November[1]

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2010 Mid-Term Elections:

Implications for Commercial Real Estate

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US Total Public Debt Outstanding

Since World War II, the US House of Representatives has changed political parties

seven times. Last weeks mid-term elections turned the shift of political power for the

next two years in favor of the Republican Party in the House. With a divided Congress

and opposing political parties controlling the Executive and Legislative branches, there

are numerous implications for commercial real estate. Cassidy Turley Research provides

a brief outlook on the mid-term elections in relation to federal debt, legislation, US

employment, and the commercial real estate markets.

Federal Debt, Income & Expenditures: Large national debt is a hot topic for the 112th

Congress. Currently, public debt is estimated at $13.7 trillion, equating to $116,647

for every US household. The ratio of total public debt to national GDP stands at

approximately 94 percent, compared to the 30-year average of 58 percent. To address

debt, government will need to examine federal revenues and spending.

Future tax revenues will factor heavily on public debt. Bush era tax cuts are set to

expire on December 31, 2010. Extension of these tax cuts will have a significant impact

on future federal income projections. Federal receipts decreased from 2001 to 2003

following the implementation of President Bushs tax cuts, but have risen 4.3% annually,

on average, since 2003. Though no definitive decisions have been made by Congress,

it appears that some form of continuing tax cuts will be implemented, at least in the

short-term.

There is no doubt that federal spending plays a significant role in the US economy.

Federal outlays currently account for an estimated 19% of national GDP. Federal

spending continues to grow. Over the past year, federal outlays increased 2.7%

annually, slightly higher than the 30-year average increase of 2.5%. A divided

government will need to decide how to address federal spending and determine its

impacts on the economy.

Implications:The 112th Congress is faced with a considerable amount of federal debt.

Large programs, such as defense, are targets for spending cuts. Funding for specific

programs significantly impacts procurement expenditures for private sector contractors.

Additionally, changes in federal government employment affect the private sector.

History shows that 1.1 to 3 contractor jobs are created for every federal government job.

Depending on how aggressively Congress implements spending cuts, locations that rely

heavily on federal contracting could be strongly impacted.

Looking back over the past 25 years, a divided or unified government has not made

a significant impact in federal spending. The Federal Government has continued to

increase spending, regardless of political party control. The main issue continues to bewhich federal programs or initiatives are retained or cut.

Legislation: In addition to debating extended tax cuts, Republicans and Democrats

will continue to deliberate major legislation such as healthcare reform and Wall Street

reform/consumer protection. The Federal Government and some private sector

companies have started to gear up for implementation of these bills, though programs

related to these bills have not been fully funded. For example, the US Securities and

Exchange Commission signed a 900,000 square foot office lease in Washington, DC in

anticipation of increased employment for financial oversight and consumer protection.

November 2010

Federal Government Receipts & Outlays

(in constant FY 2000 dollars)

Sources: Bureau of the Public Debt Online, Moodys Analytics

Sources: Government Printing Office (GPO)

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

$16,000,000

Jan-80

Jan-82

Jan-84

Jan-86

Jan-88

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

billions

$

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200420

06e20

08e20

10e

billions

$

15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%

Receipts Outlays Outlays as Percentage of GDP

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2010 Mid-Term Elections:

Implications for Commercial Real Estate

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National Office Using Employment (SA)

November 2010

Implications: The outcomes of issues such as these will affect both public and

private sector hiring and thus demand for commercial real estate. Implementation

of healthcare and financial reform could affect the medical, IT, accounting, and legal

sectors, driving demand for office and medical space and data processing centers.

Additionally, changes in income and capital gains taxes could affect when and how

commercial property is acquired and sold.

Employment: The national employment outlook remains mixed. Though still plagued

by a record-high 9.6% unemployment rate, US non-farm employment improved in

October 2010 by adding 829,000 jobs on a seasonally-adjusted basis compared to

a year ago. After reaching a low point in 3Q 2009, national office-using employment

(mainly the Professional & Business Services and Financial Activities sectors) is

projected to improve, adding an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 jobs annually over the

next five years. However, there is the likelihood that national office employment will

continue to decline for the next two to four quarters if the economy is slow to recover.

Implications: Decisions made by a split government regarding additional financial

stimulus and public spending will impact employment projections. Chances are many

major decisions will not happen in the near-term with a divided government. As a result

this may only delay decisions by some companies to hire new employees and acquire

additional space.

A lame duck government may also hinder improvement of consumer and business

confidence. Business and consumer confidence have demonstrated to be highly

correlated with employment and office space demand. Prolonged levels of low

confidence will only delay a full recovery in the commercial real estate markets.

Nonetheless, national office-using employment will add an estimated 3.7 million jobs

over the next five years. This equates to 550 million to 925 million square feet of

demand for existing or additional office space.

Disclaimer

This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.cassidyturley.com. This is a

research document of Cassidy Turley in Washington, DC. Questions related to information herein should be

directed to the Research Department at 202-463-2100. Information contained herein has been obtained from

sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Cassidy Turley is a leading

commercial real estate services provider with over 2,800 professionals in 60 offi ces nationwide. The fi rm

completed transactions valued over $13 billion in 2009, manages over 420 million square feet on behalf of

private, institutional and corporate clients and supports over 25,000 domestic corporate services locations.

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

MillionsEmployed

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

MillionsEmployed

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moodys Analytics

Divided Government Doesnt Matter

Change in Total Federal Outlays

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

YearoverYearChange

RepublicanControlledHouse

DemocratControlledHouse

Reagan Bush I Bush IIClinton Obama

Shaded Bar =Opposite PartyPresident0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

YearoverYearChange

RepublicanControlledHouse

DemocratControlledHouse

Reagan Bush I Bush IIClinton Obama

Shaded Bar =Opposite PartyPresident

Sources: Government Printing Office (GPO), Cassidy Turley