Cuban Immigration Reform: A Working Model?

Written by Karin Swanson, Nellie Stoeckle, Anna Ivanova, Mikhail Shebalkov

Existing Problem

• Due to the large wave of Cubans entering the country, the USA made an agreement in September 1994 that would limit the number of incoming Cubans to 20,000 annually.

In May 1995, it was announced that the Cubans in Guantanamo would be permitted to enter the USA if they had no criminal history. In 1996,

these Cubans were officially admitted as parolees.

Congress amended the trade embargo in 2000 to allow agricultural exports from the United States to Cuba. Total agricultural exports since

2001 reached $3,5 billion as of February 2012.

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Existing Problem

• The change in leadership of both the United States and Cuba was supposed to provide openings for revisions in U.S. policy on Cuban migration.

• This transfer of power between the Castro brothers led some to question whether there would be much of an opening for renewed migration talks between the United States and Cuba.

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Current Legislation in U.S.

• DREAM Act, 2001• “Wet foot, dry foot policy” • “Dusty foot”• Less contact with their families

(Bush politics)• Denial if the entrance to anyone

who might be “detrimental”

to national interests (Cuban academics, intellectuals, and professionals )

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Current legislation in Russia

• Restriction to hire immigrants (retail services)

• Immigrants quota• Simplification of

procedures of getting permanent residency for ex-USSR citizens

• Construction in Russia/agriculture in the US

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Changing Legislation in U.S.

• Raúl Castro, brother of Fidel Castro, took over leadership in 2008 and formally assumed position of president in 2011;

• More liberal, yet still crucial restrictions controlling Cuban immigration, with control still centralized within the government; 

• Second term ends in 2018 - then what?• US policy must be flexible to possibility of more conservative

successor;

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Changing Legislation in Russia

• Union State of Russia and Belarus;• Provides a common citizenship; • 2012 State Duma offered to hire 50 million immigrants to

build cities in Siberia; • 2012 Putin said that immigration should be simplified for

those that know Russian;

This could be your home!7

Dataset for modeling

• Period: 2007-2011• Factors:

– Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. – Gross Domestic Product (GDP).– Imports of goods and services (% of GDP).– Exports of goods and services (% of GDP).– The crude birth rate. The crude death rate. Fertility Rate.– Share of urban population to total.– The unemployment rate.– Population of country.

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Correlation analysis

Correlation analysis: Number of migrated people (% of population).Significant values are marked.

 Popula

tionBirth rate

Death rate

Fertility rate

Urban pop.

Unemp. rate

GDPGNI pc

Imports Exports

Correlation -0.23 0.05 -0.13 0.08 -0.24 0.19 -0.33 -0.24 0.54 0.31

Significance 99% 55% 90% 76% 99% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99%

Positive correlation stands for positive relation of the factor variable to Number of migrated people (% of population).

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Artificial Neural Network

• Network configuration: MLP 12-11-1• Algorithm to train ANN: BFGS-13• Activation function: Exponential• Training performance: 97.7%• Test performance: 83%

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Legislative Immigration Proposal

• General Plan: – U.S. and Russia should focus on simplifying

immigration process for highly qualified professionals;

– Develop immigration policy in connection with economic projects (e.g. Skolkovo in Russia) to fill the domestic sectors that are in demands;

– Create a government department (e.g. within the INS in the U.S.; FMS in Russia) that uses mathematical modeling;

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Specific Legislative Immigration Proposal

• Russia:– Stricter border control; restrict free migration;– Set restrictions of migrants (e.g. Tajikistanis)

who want to purchase property to prevent whole communities of immigrants from forming, making further migration easier and limiting assimilation;

– Language and cultural exam to attract immigrants who will assimilate into society or provide for the benefit of the Russian people;

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Specific Legislative Immigration Proposal

• United States (based on Immigration Reform published today):– Create start-up visa to encourage entrepreneurship,

attract the right type of migrant workers (e.g. not just people who will become cheap laborers);

– Set visa restrictions on individuals, to prevent families from migrating as a unit;

– Balance number of employment visas between sectors;

– Develop relationship with Mexico to prevent Cubans from entering through Mexico;

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Conclusion

Things to be done:

1. Provide incentives to Cubans who have the qualified skills to meet the requirements of domestic U.S. sectors

2. Policy towards Cuba / Tajikistan must be flexible

3. U.S. could build a partnership with Russia on the topic of immigration, mentoring the latter on how to address its own immigration issues and thus strengthening US-Russia relations. 

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