“Cumulative Effects & Cumulative Effects Assessment: a Conceptual Model”

F. Chris Jones1,21Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental Science Centre

2Laurentian University, Boreal PhD Program

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Conclusion 1:Human undertakings

must proceed in a way that acknowledges the

limitations of our biosphere

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Interactions

Habitat Biota

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Environment

Society

Economy

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“the incremental impact of (some) action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions”

— US Council on Environmental Quality  Photo credit: http://www.one2one‐removals.com.au/

“…any cumulative effects that are likely to result from the project in 

combination with other projects or activities that have been or will be 

carried out”

Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (1995), Section 16(1) demands consideration of…

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Effect-based Indicators

(Bioindicators)

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Conclusion 2:For assessing

Cumulative Effects,Biological indicators

Are superior to stressor-based indicators

(Jones et al. 2002, Dube et al. 2006)

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Planning/Regulation

ScientificAssessment

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Planning/Regulation

ScientificAssessment

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acceptable (normal)

range

predicted cumulative

effect

acceptable (normal)

range

observed cumulative

effect

Conclusion 3:Planning/regulatory and scientific assessments

are complementary

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)

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Conclusion 4:A formal and transparent process, and

public participation in that process, helps to ensure

that CEA is rational.

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Valued Ecosystem Component

Conclusion 5: Valued ecosystem componentsmust be used to provide a tractable scope

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Conclusion 6:Monitoring and Modeling 

have complementary roles

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Conclusion 7:Numerical methods for 

assessing cumulative effects are well developed

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(adapted from Noble 2010)

Status quo impact assessment

Needed cumulative effects assessment

assumptions abundance limitsspatial context project multiple scalestemporal context past, present past, present, futurescope regulated activities all disturbancesassessment stressors or effects stressors and effectsfutures predicted impacts possible outcomesmanagement mitigation avoidancemonitoring regulatory compliance thresholds and capacityresponsibility individual proponents multiple stakeholdersperformance evaluation efficiency efficacy

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“…Project proponents operate in the silo of stressor-based approaches to identify and mitigate project stressors, with

governments as gatekeepers. The scientific ...community operates in the silo of effects-based science to understand ecosystem

functioning and environmental effects in response to landscape disturbances. Land-use planners and managers are focused on

broader environmental planning and social matters, while incremental impacts at the project level continue to accumulate”.

— Noble (2010)

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Status quo impact assessment

Needed cumulative effects assessment

assumptions abundance limitsspatial context project multiple scalestemporal context past, present past, present, futurescope regulated activities all disturbancesassessment stressors or effects stressors and effectsfutures predicted impacts possible outcomesmanagement mitigation avoidancemonitoring regulatory compliance thresholds and capacityresponsibility individual proponents multiple stakeholdersperformance evaluation efficiency efficacy

(adapted from Noble 2010)

Conclusion 8: Cumulative effects assessment reflects a 

paradigm shift from project‐based environmental assessment.

Hallmarks of Cumulative Effects Assessment

1. Limits are acknowledged2. Biological indicators are prominent3. Monitoring and modeling have complementary roles4. The decision making process is formal, transparent, and participatory

5. Scope is restricted to valued/Significant ecosystem components6. Knowledge inputs & outputs of Planning, regulation, and scientific ecosystem assessments are linked

7. Appropriate numerical methods are used to assess and model cumulative effects

8. A paradigm shift from traditional planning and regulation: ecological limits recognized; possible futures explored at regional scale; complexity acknowledged; avoidance (not mitigation); stakeholder participation; effectiveness assessed

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acceptable (normal) range

predicted cumulative 

effect

Environment

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Economy

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AvoidMinimizeRestoreOffset

If not possible

Don’t Allow

(Raiter et al. 2014)

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