Current and future climate of Vanuatu

South Pacific Ocean

Hiu

VanuaLava

Gaua

Espiritu Santo

Malekula

Ambae

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Pentecost

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Shepherd IslandsÉpi

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PORT VILA

> Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department

> Australian Bureau of Meteorology

> Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Vanuatu’s current climateAcross Vanuatu the annual average temperatures are between 23.5–27.5°C. Changes in the temperature from season to season are strongly tied to changes in the surrounding ocean temperature. The country has two distinct seasons – a warm wet season from November to April and a cooler dry season from May to October (Figure 1).

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Rainfall in Vanuatu is affected by the South Pacific Convergence Zone. This band of heavy rainfall is caused by air rising over warm waters where winds converge, resulting in thunderstorm activity. It extends across the South Pacific Ocean from the Solomon Islands to east of the Cook Islands (Figure 2). During the wet season the South Pacific Convergence Zone intensifies and moves further south, bringing higher rainfall to Vanuatu. Low pressure

systems embedded in this band of heavy rainfall often become tropical cyclones during the cyclone season.

Mountains also play a role in the variations in rainfall across some islands. During the wet season, rainfall is particularly high on the windward (south-east) side of the mountain ranges of the bigger islands, and scarce on the leeward (north-west) sides, especially during the dry season.

Vanuatu’s climate varies considerably from year to year due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This is a climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean and affects weather around the world. There are two extreme phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: El Niño and La Niña. There is also a neutral phase. In both Port Vila and Aneityum El Niño events tend to bring drier conditions as well as a late start to the wet season and cooler than normal dry seasons. The opposite occurs during La Niña events.

Figure 1: Seasonal rainfall and temperature at Port Vila.

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Figure 2: The average positions of the major climate features in November to April. The arrows show near surface winds, the blue shading represents the bands of rainfall convergence zones, the dashed oval shows the West Pacific Warm Pool and H represents typical positions of moving high pressure systems.

Tropical cyclones affect Vanuatu between November and April. In the 41-year period between 1969 and 2010, 94 tropical cyclones passed within 400 km of Port Vila, an average of two to three cyclones per season (Figure 3). The number of cyclones varies widely from year to year, with none in some seasons but up to six in others.

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Figure 3: Number of tropical cyclones passing within 400 km of Port Vila. Eleven-year moving average in purple.

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Temperatures have increasedAnnual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased in both Port Vila and Aneityum since 1950 (Figure 4). At Bauerfield Airport in Port Vila, maximum temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.17°C per decade and at Aneityum the rate of increase has been 0.18°C per decade. These temperature increases are consistent with the global pattern of warming.

Figure 4: Annual average temperature for Bauerfield Airport, Port Vila. Light blue bars indicate El Niño years, dark blue bars indicate La Niña years and the grey bars indicate neutral years.

Figure 5: Annual rainfall for Port Vila. Light blue bars indicate El Niño years, dark blue bars indicate La Niña years and the grey bars indicate neutral years.

Vanuatu’s changing climate

Port Vila’s wet season rainfall has decreasedData since 1950 for Port Vila show a decreasing trend in wet season rainfall (Figure 5). However, there are no clear trends in annual and dry season rainfall at Port Vila or annual and seasonal rainfall at Aneityum. Over this period, there has been substantial variation in rainfall from year to year at both sites.

Sea level has risenAs ocean water warms it expands causing the sea level to rise. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets also contributes to sea-level rise.

Instruments mounted on satellites and tide gauges are used to measure sea level. Satellite data indicate the sea level has risen near Vanuatu by about 6 mm per year since 1993. This is larger than the global average of 2.8–3.6 mm per year. This higher rate of rise may be partly related to natural fluctuations that take place year to year or decade to decade caused by phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This variation in sea level can be seen in Figure 7 which includes the tide gauge record and the satellite data since 1993.

Ocean acidification has been increasingAbout one quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted from human activities each year is absorbed by the oceans. As the extra carbon dioxide reacts with sea water it causes the ocean to become slightly more acidic. This impacts the growth of corals and organisms that construct their skeletons from carbonate minerals. These species are critical to the balance of tropical reef ecosystems. Data show that since the 18th century the level of ocean acidification has been slowly increasing in Vanuatu’s waters.

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Vanuatu’s future climateClimate impacts almost all aspects of life in Vanuatu. Understanding the possible future climate of Vanuatu is important so people and the government can plan for changes.

Global climate models are the best tools for understanding future climate change. Climate models are mathematical representations of the climate system that require very powerful computers. They are based on the laws of physics and include information about the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice.

There are many different global climate models and they all represent the climate slightly differently. Scientists from the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) have evaluated 24 models from around the world and found that 18 best represent the climate of the western tropical Pacific region. These 18 models have been used to develop climate projections for Vanuatu.

The future climate will be determined by a combination of natural and human factors. As we do not know what the future holds, we need to consider a range of possible future conditions, or scenarios, in climate models. The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a series of plausible scenarios based on a set of assumptions about future population changes, economic development and technological advances. For example, the A1B (or medium) emissions scenario envisages global population peaking mid-century and declining thereafter, very rapid economic growth, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios are used in climate modelling to provide projections that represent a range of possible futures.

The climate projections for Vanuatu are based on three IPCC emissions scenarios: low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A2), for time periods around 2030, 2055 and 2090 (Figure 6). Since individual models give different results, the projections are presented as a range of values.

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Figure 6: Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (parts per million, ppm) associated with three IPCC emissions scenarios: low emissions (B1 – blue), medium emissions (A1B – green) and high emissions (A2 – purple). The PCCSP has analysed climate model results for periods centred on 1990, 2030, 2055 and 2090 (shaded).

How do scientists develop climate projections?

Flooding in Teuma, Vanuatu.

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Less frequent but more intense tropical cyclones On a global scale, the projections indicate there is likely to be a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones by the end of the 21st century. But there is likely to be an increase in the average maximum wind speed of cyclones by between 2% and 11% and an increase in rainfall intensity of about 20% within 100 km of the cyclone centre.

In the Vanuatu region, projections tend to show a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones by the late 21st century and an increase in the proportion of the more intense storms.

Temperatures will continue to increase Projections for all emissions scenarios indicate that the annual average air temperature and sea surface temperature will increase in the future in Vanuatu (Table 1). By 2030, under a high emissions scenario, this increase in temperature is projected to be in the range of 0.4–1.0°C.

More very hot daysIncreases in average temperatures will also result in a rise in the number of hot days and warm nights and a decline in cooler weather.

Table 1: Projected annual average air temperature changes for Vanuatu for three emissions scenarios and three time periods. Values represent 90% of the range of the models and changes are relative to the average of the period 1980-1999.

2030 2055 2090 (°C) (°C) (°C)

Low 0.2–1.0 0.5–1.5 0.7–2.1 emissions scenario

Medium 0.3–1.1 0.8–2.0 1.3–3.1 emissions scenario

High 0.4–1.0 1.1–1.7 2.0–3.2 emissions scenario

Changing rainfall patternsThere is uncertainty around rainfall projections as model results are not consistent. However, projections generally suggest a decrease in dry season rainfall and an increase in wet season rainfall over the course of the 21st century. Increased wet season rainfall is expected due to the projected intensification of the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Drought projections are inconsistent for Vanuatu.

More extreme rainfall daysModel projections show extreme rainfall days are likely to occur more often.

Vanuatu’s future climateThis is a summary of climate projections for Vanuatu. For further information refer to Volume 2 of Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research, and the web-based climate projections tool – Pacific Climate Futures (available at www.pacificclimatefutures.net).

Climate data management training, Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department.

Damage to a house from Tropical Cyclone Gene, January 2008.

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Figure 7: Observed and projected relative sea-level change near Vanuatu. The observed sea-level records are indicated in dark blue (relative tide-gauge observations) and light blue (the satellite record since 1993). Reconstructed estimates of sea level near Vanuatu since 1950) are shown in purple. The projections for the A1B (medium) emissions scenario (representing 90% of the range of models) are shown by the shaded green region from 1990 to 2100. The dashed lines are an estimate of 90% of the range of natural year-to-year variability in sea level.

Sea level will continue to riseSea level is expected to continue to rise in Vanuatu (Table 2 and Figure 7). By 2030, under a high emissions scenario, this rise in sea level is projected to be in the range of 3-17 cm. The sea-level rise combined with natural year-to-year changes will increase the impact of storm surges and coastal flooding. As there is still much to learn, particularly how large ice sheets such as Antarctica and Greenland contribute to sea-level rise, scientists warn larger rises than currently predicted could be possible.

Ocean acidification will continue Under all three emissions scenarios (low, medium and high) the acidity level of sea waters in the Vanuatu region will continue to increase over the 21st century, with the greatest change under the high emissions scenario. The impact of increased acidification on the health of reef ecosystems is likely to be compounded by other stressors including coral bleaching, storm damage and fishing pressure.

Table 2: Sea-level rise projections for Vanuatu for three emissions scenarios and three time periods. Values represent 90% of the range of the models and changes are relative to the average of the period 1980-1999.

2030 2055 2090 (cm) (cm) (cm)

Low 5–16 10–27 17–47 emissions scenario

Medium 5–16 8–31 20–59 emissions scenario

High 3 –17 7–31 21– 63 emissions scenario

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The content of this brochure is the result of a collaborative effort between the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department and the Pacific Climate Change Science Program – a component of the Australian Government’s International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative. This information and research conducted by the Pacific Climate Change Science Program builds on the findings of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. For more detailed information on the climate of Vanuatu and the Pacific see: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports. Available from November 2011.

www.pacificclimatechangescience.org

Contact the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department:

web: www.meteo.gov.vu email: climate@meteo.gov.vu or admin@meteo.gov.vu phone: +678 24686

Vanuatu’s climateChanges in

> Temperatures have warmed and will continue to warm with more very hot days in the future.

> Wet season rainfall at Port Vila has decreased since 1950 but rainfall at Aneityum shows no clear change. Rainfall patterns are projected to change over this century with more extreme rainfall days expected.

> By the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories.

> Ocean acidification has been increasing in Vanuatu’s waters. It will continue to increase and threaten coral reef ecosystems.

> Sea level near Vanuatu has risen and will continue to rise throughout this century.

© Pacific Climate Change Science Program partners 2011.