Current Coastal Change Research/Management Projects and Priority

Information Needs in from Cook Inlet through Southeastern Alaska

Michaela M. Swanson and Sarah F. Trainor University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

Outline

•  Introduc)on:Whyconductacoastalchangeprojectsynthesis?• Methods:

•  Coastalchangeprojectdefini)on•  Projectsearch•  Synthesisofprojectinforma)on

• Results•  Summary

•  U)lityforcoordina)onandlearning•  Recommenda)ons

Coastal Change Impacts

• Changestospeciesorhabitat•  Changesinspeciesmigra)onandspawningpaCerns

•  Speciesintroduc)on/ex)nc)on•  Coastalerosion•  Oceanacidifica)on

• CoastalCommuni)es•  Damagetoinfrastructure•  Impactstodrinkingwatersupplies•  Changestotradi)onalsubsistenceuse

Introduction

www.cnn.com

Introduction

Coastal research needs TillmannandSiemann2011•  FundedbytheNPLCC•  Reviewedthecurrentstateofthecoastwithinthe

NPLCCregion•  CO2Concentra)ons,Temperature,&Precipita)on•  MajorClimateImpactsonMarine&CoastalEnvironments

•  Implica)onsforMarine&CoastalEcosystems•  Implica)onsforCoastalNearshoreHabitats&Ecosystems

•  Implica)onsforSpecies,Popula)ons,&Communi)es•  Implica)onsforKeyFish,Wildlife,Plants,Plankton,&Shellfish

•  Developedkeyinforma6onandresearchneeds

Introduction

Why a coastal change synthesis

Benefitsofacoastalprojectsynthesis:

•  Trackexis)ngprojects•  Incorporateprojectfindings•  Gaugeremainingresearchgaps

•  Priori)zefutureprojectsupport

Introduction

www.milepost.com

Previous synthesis work

• WALCCreport(Brownetal.2015)•  CoastalHazardsWorkshop•  86currentcoastalchangeprojects(2010-2015)•  33%ofcurrentprojectsmetatleastoneoftherecommendedpriorityneeds

•  Keyrecommenda)onswereunderrepresentedinthefinaldatabase.

•  Bathymetry•  Tidalbenchmarks

•  h?ps://accap.uaf.edu/W_AK_LCC_Coastal_Change_Research

Introduction

Project scope and goals Goals

• Shortterm:•  Createacoastalchangedatabase•  Reportthatcompilescurrentcoastalchangeprojects

•  Longterm:•  Fostercoordina)onofcoastalchangeresearchinAlaska•  Helpprac))onersandscholarslearnfromoneanother•  Iden)fyresearchgapsthatneedtobeaddressed

Introduction

Project scope • AlaskaregionofNPLCC

•  CookInlet–SoutheastAlaska• Providecon)nuitywithBrownetal2015

• Currentcoastalchangeprojects•  OngoingorstartedorendedaderOctober31,2010

Methods

Coastal change project definition

•  Projectcriteria:•  focusoncoastaldrivers(storms,erosion,sealevelrise,nearshoreseaice)•  projectsincoastalcommuni6esthatareinves)ga)ngcoastalchange•  shorelineprojects(e.g.mapping,stabiliza)onsurveys)•  coastalhabitat(includingestuariesanddeltahabitats)•  nearshoreprojects(lagoons,eelgrasscommuni)es)•  estuaryprojects•  marinemammalprojectsastheyrelatetotheirlandornearshorehabitats•  subsistenceprojectsincludingmarinemammalsorcoastalbirds•  fishprojectsatcoastalsites

Methods

Identify existing projects •  Internetsearch•  Listservs

•  ACCAP,NPLCC,PNWTribalCCNetwork,SoutheastAlaskaFishHabitatPartnership

Methods

Identify existing projects

• Wordofmouthandpersonalcommunica)on

•  Sentoutcallsforinforma)on•  SEAlaskaClimateChangeSummit• Confirmedprojectswithkeyexpertsintheregion

Methods

Coastal change project contacts ABR,Inc. Na)onalCenterforEcologicalAnalysisand

SynthesisSitkaSoundScienceCenter

AlaskaClimateScienceCenter Na)onalMarineMammalLab SitkaTribeofAlaska

AlaskaDepartmentofEnvironmentalConserva)on(DEC)

Na)onalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministra)on(NOAA)

SoutheastAlaskaFishHabitatPartnership

AlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADF&G) Na)onalParkService(NPS),CoastalResearchProgram

SustainableSoutheast

AlaskaNa)veTribalHealthConsor)um NatureConservancy(Alaska) TyonekTribalConserva)onDistrict

AlaskaOceanObservingSystem(AOOS) OrganizedVillageofKasaan U.S.EnvironmentalProtec)onAgency(EPA)

AlaskaSeaLifeCenter NorthPacificResearchBoard U.S.FishandWildlifeService(FWS)

AlaskaSustainableSalmonFund(ofADF&G) OceansAlaska U.S.ForestService(FS)

CenterforAlaskanCoastalStudies PacificNorthwestTribalClimateChangeProject U.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS)

CityofJuneau PacificStatesMarineFisheriesCommission U.S.NaturalResourcesConserva)onService(NRCS)

CoastalResearchandEduca)onCenter PrinceWilliamSoundScienceCenter UniversityofAlaskaAnchorage

EnvironmentalProtec)onAgency(EPA) Sealaska UniversityofAlaskaFairbanks,SchoolofFisheriesandOceanSciences

GreaterSoutheastConserva)onCommunity KachemakBayNa)onalEstuarineResearchReserve

SewardSealifeCenter

GulfWatchAlaska

Methods

Project ID Category:

Primary keyword:

Secondary Keyword Title:

Lead PI or contact Institution:

Geographic scope

Project Start Date:

Project End Date:

B5 Biological marine

mammal fish/shellfish

Impacts of Sea Otter Recolonization on Marine

Resources and Coastal Communities in Southern

Southeast Alaska

Ginny Eckert

University of Alaska

Fairbanks, School of

Fisheries and Ocean Sciences

University of Southeast

Alaska 2/1/2012 1/31/2016

B6 Biological vegetation fish/shellfish

Coastal Resilience in Sitka Sound: Monitoring Pinto

Abalone and Kelp Forests in a Changing Climate

Victoria O’Connell

Sitka Sound Science Center Sitka Sound 2/1/2015 1/31/2017

B7 Biological coastal/

nearshore hydrologic Development of freshwater

contaminants monitoring design Chris

Sergeant

National Park Service,

Southeast Alaska Network,

Inventory and Monitoring

Division

Glacier Bay NP, Klondike

Gold Rush NHP, and Sitka NHP

2012 ongoing

B8 Biological vegetation hydrologic

Stream discharge, snow-cover, soil drainage and yellow-cedar decline in the NPLCC region of

southeast Alaska

Jason Fellman

University of Alaska

Southeast, Alaska Coastal

Rainforest Center

Pacific coastal

temperate rainforest

(PCTR), SW Alaska

2014 2015

Methods

Biologicalsystemprojects:•  Birds•  Marinemammals•  Fish•  Vegeta)on•  Coastal/nearshorehabitat

Humansystemprojects:•  Subsistence•  Localobserva)on•  Coastalchangeadapta)on

Landscape-Geophysicalprojects:•  Coastalerosion•  Shorelinemapping•  Bathymetry•  Hydrologic•  Climatological

Oceanographicsystemprojects:•  Biophysicalprocesses•  Currents/waves•  StormpaCerns•  Seaice•  Tidal

Methods

Gap Id

Headings for Information gaps from Tillmann and Siemann 2011

Current trend need

identified for AK

Future prediction

need identified for AK

N Altered food web dynamics yes yes

R Habitat loss, degradation, and conversion yes yes

S Shifts in species range and distribution yes yes

T Altered phenology and development yes yes

U Shifts in community composition,

competition, & survival yes yes

V Altered interaction with non-native &

invasive species yes yes

W Sea and shorebirds no yes

Z Pacific lamprey (Lampetra tridentata) yes yes

Identified research needs

Methods

(

Results

Biological system projects

Results

hCp://www.fs.fed.us/

Results

www.audubon.org

Shorezone

hCp://www.oCer-world.com/

Human system projects

Results

hCp://photos.lifeasahuman.com/

Results

www.audubon.org

Shorezone

hCp://www.oCer-world.com/

hCps://kbaycouncil.wordpress.com/

www.WCVB.com

hCp://www.aoos.org/ www.nceas.ucsb.edu

Landscape-Geophysical system projects

Results

www.usgs.gov

hCp://www.alaskahydroscience.com/

www.s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com

www.USGS.gov

hCp://extremeicesurvey.org/alaska/

www.uoregon.edu hCp://www.gulfwatchalaska.org/

hCp://secoora.org/ www.polartrec.com

Oceanographic system projects

Results

Gap Id

Headings for Information gaps from Tillmann and Siemann 2011

Current trend need

identified for AK

Future prediction

need identified for AK

Number of NLPCC projects addressing gap

Project IDs

N Altered food web dynamics yes yes 9 B15, B25, B3, B31, B5, H8, LG18, LG6, LG7

R Habitat loss, degradation, and conversion yes yes 10 B1, B2, B21, B3, B44, B8, H14, H7, LG21,

LG3

S Shifts in species range and distribution yes yes 16 B12, B16, B20, B27, B28, B29, B34, B35,

B38, B4, B41, B43, H15, H2, H6, LG8

T Altered phenology and development yes yes 4 B29, B37, LG11, LG5

U Shifts in community composition,

competition, & survival yes yes 13 B15, B16, B26, B31, B34, B36, B38, B39, B4,

B49, H15, H2, H6

V Altered interaction with non-native &

invasive species yes yes 2 B48, H14

W Sea and shorebirds no yes 6 B1, B11, B15, B16, B45, B46

Z Pacific lamprey (Lampetra tridentata) yes yes 1 B14

X Shellfish yes yes 6 B26, B38, B43, B48, B5, B6 Results

Identifying research gaps

Overall identified research needs and gaps

•  75ofour93projects(81%)weremee)ngatleast1iden)fiedgap•  For43projects(46%)metmorethanoneresearchneed;15projectsmet3ormoreiden)fiedneeds.

Topcategoriesofresearchneedsbeingmetincluded:

U-shidsincommunitycomposi)on,compe))on,andsurvival(13)S-shidsinspeciesrangeanddistribu)on(16)Y-Pacificsalmon(28)F-alteredhydrology(11)

Researchneedsmetby1project(Gaps):

AA-EelgrassA-CO2concentra)onsC-precipita)onH-alteredfrequencyandseverityofstorms)I-sealevelriseJ-AlteredpaCernsofcoastalupwelling

Researchneedsnotbeingmet(Gaps):

G-alteredoceancurrentsM-alteredoceanproduc)vityK-alteredpaCernsofcoastalhypoxiaandanoxia

Results

Research needs and gaps by focus area Biologicalsystems

•  Priorityresearchneeds:•  S(Shidsinspeciesrangeanddistribu)on)•  T(Alteredphenologyanddevelopment)•  U(Shidsincommunitycomposi)on,compe))on,&survival)

•  X(Pacificlamprey)•  Y(Pacificsalmon)•  AA(Eelgrass)

•  Projectsmee)ngtheresearchneedY(Pacificsalmon)odenalsometneedU(shidsincommunitycomposi)on,compe))on)andS(shidsinspeciesrangeanddistribu)on)

•  1projectmen)onedAA(Eelgrass)habitat

Humansystems•  Noneiden)fiedinTillmannandSiemann•  Humansystemsareprovidingdataandresearchformanyothertopicareas hCp://www.habitat.noaa.gov/

Results

Research needs and gaps by focus area LandscapeGeophysicalsystems

•  Nopriorityneedsiden)fied.•  Allofresearchneedsarebeingmetbyatleast1coastalchangeproject.

•  However,unlikewithresearchgapsubcategoriesrelatedtobiologicalsystems,thenumbersofprojectsaddressingtheseneedswassmaller

•  A(Carbondioxide(CO2)concentra)ons,n=1)

•  B(Temperature,n=2)•  C(Precipita)on,n=1)•  L(Alterednutrientcycling,n=5)•  P(AlteredpaCernsofcoastalerosionandincreasedcoastalsqueeze,n=3)

•  F(Alteredhydrology,n=11)

Results

Oceanographicsystems• Priorityresearchneeds:

• D(oceanacidifica)on)• E(increasingseasurfacetemperature)• G(alteredoceancurrents)• I(sealevelrise)• M(alteredoceanproduc)vity)• K(alteredpaCernsofcoastalhypoxiaandanoxia)

• Needsbeingmet• D,E,&I

• Informa)ongaps• GM&K• H,M&Q(notpriorityneeds)

Summary •  Halfoftheprojectsdescribedasbiological;manyclassifiedasfishprojects

•  Fewiden)fiedprojectsfocusedonoceanographicresearch

•  Largepor)onofprojectsmee)ngiden)fiedscien)ficandresearchneeds

•  Forseveralcategorieshadmanyprojectsmee)ngneeds:shi]sincommunitycomposi6on,compe66on,andsurvivals,shi]sinspeciesrangeanddistribu6on,Pacificsalmon,andalteredhydrology

•  GapsremainintheresearchareasofEelgrassandPacificlampreyandalteredinterac)onsin:non-na6veandinvasivespecies,oceancurrents,oceanproduc6vity,pa?ernsofcoastalhypoxiaandanoxia,frequencyandseverityofstorms,pa?ernsofcoastalupwelling,andsedimenta6onpa?erns

Summary

Conclusions and recommendations • Projectsinthebiologicalandlandscapesystemprojectswellmatchedtoiden)fiedneedsbutresearchgapsremain

•  Someprojecttypesmaybeunderrepresented• BeCerdataresultsinmorecompleteanalysis• Mechanismforcon)nueddatasharingandcollabora)on

Shorezone

https://accap.uaf.edu/NPLCC_CoastalChangeProjects

Acknowledgments • NPLCCforfunding•  StaffoftheNPLCCandWALCC• ReviewersandmembersoftheNPLCCsteeringcommiCee• AllisonBidlack,KathyLynn,DavinHolenandDeborahHart• ACCAP• UniversityofAlaskaFairbanks•  Shorezone•  Thestakeholders,students,researchers,communitymembersandpartnersthatsubmiCedprojectsinforma)on!!

m.swanson@alaska.edu

Questions