Current Events InActivity-Based Modeling

Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP

North Central Texas Council Of Governments

For

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting

Houston, Texas

March 20, 2006

Agenda

Current Agency Activities

Responses From Focus Groups

TRB Innovations In Modeling Conference

Strategies For Advancing The Model Profession

Current Agency Activities

Models In Place And In Operation SFCTA (San Francisco County)

NYMTC (New York MPO)

MORPC (Columbus, Ohio MPO)

Models Under Development By Consultants DRCOG (Denver MPO)

SACOG (Sacramento MPO)

Current Agency Activities (Cont.)

Models Under Development By Universities FAMOS (Tampa Area Testing)

CEMDAP (Dallas-Fort Worth Area Testing)

Others ARC (Atlanta MPO)

MTC (San Francisco/Oakland MPO)

TRANSIMS (Portland Case Study)

“MPO Coalition”Activity Model Listserv

Mission Statement: “MPO Coalition for the Examination and Advancement

of Activity-Based Models for Use in Transportation

Planning Applications”

27 MPOs (97 Million People) Are Represented 34% Of Total U.S. Population (Census 2000)

46% Of All MPO Population

Academic/Consultant E-MailFocus Group--Question 1

Do YOU think activity-based models (ABMs)are the appropriate "wave of the future" for asignificant near-term (within five years)advancement of the U.S. travel model practice?

[38 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 2

Assume $2 million a year for the next five years($10 million) of unexpected monies were madeavailable for advancing/improving landuse/travel demand modeling tools. How wouldYOU suggest this money be spent?

[27 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 3

What do YOU consider the right path for

MPOs to take, when it comes to implementation

of land use/demographic forecasting tools?

[17 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 4

What should be the role of the federal

government (especially U.S. DOT) in

advancing the travel modeling profession?

[5 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 5

How should one go about testing an existing

activity-based model, to determine its readiness

for real-world model applications use?

[4 Responses]

Focus Group--Question 6

What are the questions we should expect

robust land use and transportation models to

help us resolve?

TRB Innovations In TravelDemand Modeling Conference

1:30 p.m. Sunday, May 21, 2006To

2:30 p.m. Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Austin, Texas (Hyatt Regency)

Preliminary Agenda

Sunday Workshops (1:30 to 5:00 p.m.) Innovations In Practice

FTA Findings For Meaningful Forecasts

Data And Survey Issues

Preliminary Agenda

Monday Morning Plenary Sessions Overview Of The Policy Issues

Moving Innovative Models Into Practice

Preliminary Agenda

Monday Afternoon Concurrent Sessions 1 Tour Based Models Data And Synthetic Populations Land Use Forecasting

Monday Afternoon Concurrent Sessions 2 Activity Based Models Survey Methods Assignment Advances

Preliminary Agenda

Tuesday Morning Concurrent Sessions 3 Education And Outreach

Emerging Modeling Considerations

Validation

Tuesday Morning Concurrent Sessions 4 Transitioning To A New Model Framework

Data And Future Travel Behavior

Tuesday Afternoon Closing PlenaryNext Steps: Institutional Issues

Round Table Discussion By Eight MPO Model

Practitioners Larry Blain (Seattle); Salvador Gonzalez (El Paso);

Ron Milone (Washington, D.C.); Chuck Purvis (San Francisco);

Chris van Slyke (Houston); Aichong Sun (Tucson);

Dick Walker (Portland); and Kemit Wies (Chicago)

Strategies For Consideration (1)

We Need A Very Clear Picture Of Who Is Doing

What The TRB Innovations In Modeling Conference Will

Set The Stage For Good Documentation

Both Successes And Failures Are Important

Rigorous Assessment Of Modeling Tools Not Just Activity Models Should Be Tested

Both Implemented And Estimated Models

Guidelines For Dynamic Validation Tests

Strategies For Consideration (2)

More Basic Research To Better Understand

(And Calculate) Behavioral Responses Some Original Explorations Still Needed

Some “Directed” Efforts May Also Be Needed

Applied Research Leading To Implementations Individual Or “Pooled Funding” Efforts?

Rigorous Review Of All New Implementations

A Need For An Active, Up-to-Date “Knowledge Base”