current market scenario. sensex annual performance 26 73 13 42 47 -52 81 17 -25 9
TRANSCRIPT
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Current Market Scenario
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Sensex Annual Performance
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
% R
etur
n 26
73
13
42 47 47
-52
81
17
-259
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2013 Performance – Other IndicesIndex %
BSE Midcap - 6
BSE Smallcap -11
BSE Realty -32
BSE Power -15
BSE Bankex -9
BSE Auto 7
BSE FMCG 11
BSE Healthcare 23
BSE IT 60
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
FII Flows FII Flows
Billion US $
17.65
-11.97
17.45
29.3
- 0.35
24.320.1
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DII Remain Sellers
DII includes Banks, Finance Institution, Insurance , Mutual funds
Year FII Cr. DII Cr.
2008 - 52,987 72,966
2009 83,423 26,224
2010 1,33,266 -21,354
2011 -2,714 27,814
2012 1,28,359 -56,923
2013 1,13,135 -74,285
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Market Perspective - 2014
Domestic Economy Global Economy Market Reaction
Recovers Recovers Bullish
Stagnates Recovers Stock Specific
Stagnates Stagnates Bearish
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Market Stays Flat
INDEX WATCH
INDEX Jan 10 Dec 13 % ChangeNifty 6171 6168 0
Sensex 20758 20715 0
CNX Midcap 7814 7605 2.7
BSE Small Cap 6569 6131 7.1
• Action in mid cap and small cap stocks• RBI holds rate amid criticism• Results will be in focus• Global Markets Stable
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Infosys Regaining Its Lost Shine• Infy has met analyst expectation for 3rd consecutive quarter
• N R Narayana Murthy scores well in his 2nd Innings despite top level employee exits
Result Day Stock % Change
12th Jan ’12 - 8.4
13th April - 12.6
12th July - 8.3
12th Oct - 5.6
11th Jan ’13 + 17.0
12th Apr ‘13 - 22.0
12th July ’13 + 10.9
11th Oct ‘13 + 4.7
10th Jan ’14 + 3.0
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RBI Hold Key Rates
• RBI takes pragmatic step by keeping key rates unchanged despite high inflation
• RBI cites unusual food inflation for high headline inflation
• Widespread criticism among economist on RBI stance
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Wholesale Price Inflation Segments
Category Major Components Weight age Inflation %
Primary Articles
Vegetables, egg, fish, fruits, cereals , onion spices, wheat, milk, chicken
20.12 15.92
Fuel & Power LPG, HSD, petrol 14.91 11.08
Manufactured Products
Textile, leather, food products, wood, cement, base metals, plastic, edible oil
64.97 2.64
Overall November WPI Inflation 7.52
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US Fed Kicks off Taper
• To reduce bond purchase by US $10 Bn to $75 Bn from January ‘14
• Recovery in US Economy aid US Fed to initiate Taper
• Further Taper Off depends upon economy revival
• Impact of Taper on Emerging Markets are partly discounted
• QE 3 likely to end by 2014
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SEBI Rationalizes Periodic Call Auction Criteria
• As per new criteria many good companies with low liquidity will come out of Period Call Auction segment
• Major relief to small investors as they can buy or sell in illiquid stocks as they wish
• Gives opportunities to buy good beaten down illiquid stocks
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New Periodic Call Auction List
Exchange Old List Latest List
NSE 410 45
BSE 2337 458
No. of Scrips
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Govt. to Monetize SUUTI Holdings • SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of Unit Trust of India) was
formed to bailout investors in the UTI US – 64 scheme. Govt. gave money to unit holders in lieu of stocks held by scheme
• Major Holdings in SUUTI
Company % Stake Current Value Cr
Axis Bank 20.7 11700
ITC 11.3 28700
L&T 8.2 7600
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2013 – Worst Year for Indian Auto Sector
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IIP Growth Remains MutedMonthly IIP Data
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan
Feb Mar Apr
May Ju
n Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov
Month
%
2.5
-1.8- 2.50.6
1.5
3.52.8
0.4
2.0
-1.8 - 2.1
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Trade Deficit Under Control
Monthly Trade Deficit
17.719.7
14.9
10.3
17.820.1
12.3 12.3 10.97.2
10.6 9.2 10.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Month
$ B
n
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Election Year for Emerging Markets
Country Tentative Election Time
South Africa April – July
Indonesia April, July
India May
Brazil October
Turkey August
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Events and Data to Watch
• Q3 results• US Fed meeting on Jan 28,29 • RBI Monetary Policy review on Jan 28• FII Flows
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Thank You