current s&t policy in japan and related issue · 2014-02-06 · contents 本日の話題 2....
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Current S&T policy in JapanCurrent S&T policy in Japanand related issueand related issue最近の科学技術政策について最近の科学技術政策について
Kuniko URASHIMA, Ph.DKuniko URASHIMA, Ph.D. . 浦島邦子浦島邦子S&T Foresight CenterS&T Foresight Center 科学技術動向研究センターNational Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEPNational Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP))科学技術・学術政策研究所Ministry of Education,Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT)Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT)JapanJapan 文部科学省
Visiting professor at Nagoya Univ, Iwate Univ and The open Univ. of Visiting professor at Nagoya Univ, Iwate Univ and The open Univ. of JapanJapan 客員教授 名古屋大学、岩手大学、放送大学
Contents 本日の話題
2. Foresight of S&T 科学技術予測調査
•• Japan Revitalization strategy Japan Revitalization strategy 日本の再生日本の再生•• Policy and administration Policy and administration 政策と組織政策と組織•• S&T basic plan S&T basic plan 科学技術基本計画科学技術基本計画
•• Foresight survey Foresight survey 予測調査予測調査
2
1. Current Policy 政策
3. How should we make a sustainable society 持続可能な社会
•• Design of future Design of future 将来の設計将来の設計•• Design Design of future society of future society 将来社会将来社会
4.Education 教育
•• rank of education rank of education 教育教育ランクランク•• interesting of science interesting of science 科学科学へのへの興味興味
•• Japan Revitalization strategy Japan Revitalization strategy 日本の再生日本の再生•• Policy and administration Policy and administration 政策と組織政策と組織•• S&T basic plan S&T basic plan 科学技術基本計画科学技術基本計画
3
1. Current Policy 政策
Source: cabinet
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Policy and government’s administration(related S&T) 科学技術政策体制
6http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/english/about/administration.html
S & T Administration
4th S&T basic Plan
1. Aggressive monetary policy2.Flexible fiscal policy3.New growth strategy
日本再興戦略
第4期科学技術基本計画
33 arrowsarrows
Japan Revitalization StrategyJapan Revitalization Strategy
NISTEP
JSPS, JST
NIER国立教育政策研究所
科学技術・学術政策研究所 CSTP総合科学技術会議
NEDO
7
Integration with innovation policy
Background of S&T
Innovation is expected to give solutions for global and national issues.• climate change, aging population, etc. are top concerning of near future
• S&T is the key of potential to make innovation and solving a problem
•Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making
•Link between S&T policy and foresight
2001
1971 -2001 The Technology Foresight
2005 The 8th S&T ForesightMulti methods
Delphi
2010 The 9th S&T ForesightMission-oriented & interdisciplinary
Global and national changes
2010
1995S&T Basic Law
1996-2000The 1st S&T
Basic Plan
2001-2005The 2nd S&T
Basic Plan
2006-2010The 3rd S&T Basic Plan
Innovation 25Innovation 252011-2015
The 4th S&T Basic PlanGreat Disaster 2016-2020
The 5th S&T ???
8
科学・技術、イノベーションで未来を切り拓く!
The 4th S&T Basic Plan
Promote integration of S&T Promote integration of S&T and innovation performanceand innovation performance
Major Features of the 4th S&T Basic Plan
9
The 3rd S&T Basic Planü R&D promoted in the important 8 fields
Prioritized 4 areas: Life Science, ICT, Environment, Nanotech/MaterialsPromoted 4 areas: Energy, Manufacturing technology,
Social Infrastructure, Frontier
ü Grand challenges remain unresolved through discipline-oriented approach.
From discipline-oriented to issue-driven approach
Drastic enhancement of basic research
44thth S&T Basic planS&T Basic plan
10
ØThe advanced country for sustainable environment and energy that live together with nature
Green InnovationGreen Innovation
Revival, reproduction, Revival, reproduction, and improvement in and improvement in safety from a disastersafety from a disaster
ØThe revival and reproduction from an East Japan great earthquake are accomplished, and a local resident aims at realization of the society which can live more safely. Ø Revival reproduction of the Tohoku district is carried out
aiming at the country which realizes the better life and high quality.
Life innovationLife innovationØMind and body aim at realization of healthy and vigorous
society. ØRealization of the society where elderly people and a
disabled person can become independent
4 4 priority topicspriority topics
ØA subject common to the world is conquered and the rich life of the people is realized. ØTechnology is cherished as culture and the training
reservation of the various talented people is carried out.
Promotion of basic Promotion of basic research, and research, and strengthening of strengthening of personnel training personnel training
2. Foresight of S&T 科学技術予測調査
•• The 9The 9thth Foresight resultsForesight results 第第99回予測調査結果回予測調査結果•• Design of 10Design of 10thth Foresight Foresight 第第1010回予測調査の設計回予測調査の設計
11
12
Creativity/Subjective
Consensus/Interaction
Evidence/Objective
Experts/Specialty
SWOTSWOT
Road-mappingRoad-mapping
DelphiDelphi
Scenario PlanningScenario Planning
BenchmarkingBenchmarking
IndicatorIndicator
WorkshopWorkshop
Methods Categorization
13
Long--
Objective &Extrapolative
Socio-economic
Needs Analysis
Technology(Application)
Society(Impact)
Science(Basic research)
Subjective &Normative
DelphiSurvey
BibliometricAnalysisDatabase analysis
to find rapidlydeveloping areas
Scenario Analysis
Scenario writing in individual view
Improvement with new approaches
Needs list through participatory process
8th Foresight survey Multi-methodology Foresight
Change the future design
Innovation 25
15
Coupling and mixing of two types of interdisciplinary subcommittees extending beyond existing fields
Discussion by 4 Targets 12 Interdisciplinary Subcommittees D
iscu
ssio
n by
targ
et
Inte
rdis
cipl
inar
y di
scus
sion
in
clud
ing
mem
bers
of
hum
aniti
es a
nd s
ocia
l sci
ence
s
Security
Safety
(Int’l) cooperation
(Int’l) competition
Cross-field discussion of science and technology Interdisciplinary discussion
across the fields
topics Region
+
the the 9th foresight 9th foresight
Delphi survey, Scenario writing, and local WS
Discussion for grand challenges in Japan and in other developed countries
16
What do we want to know?
Questions
Topics Realization time
Importance Promotion policies
(ICT) Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special glasses and feeling fatigue in homes.
2011-20152016-20202021-2025……….
highmoderatelownone
HRDfundingR&D system…….
(Medical care) Methods to prevent and treat human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza found in poultry.
2011-20152016-20202021-2025……….
highmoderatelownone
HRDfundingR&D system…….
(Environment) Streamflow measurement and flood forecasts to prevent unexpected disasters by using satellite observation.
2011-20152016-20202021-2025……….
highmoderatelownone
HRDfundingR&D system…….
� Prospective output� Possible future of technology/society based on experts’ intuition
17
技術実現:指数 人材育成 連携強化 基盤整備 資金拡充 国際展開
5.4 24.0 46.3 31.8 77.0 4.2
社会的適用: 指数 人材育成 連携強化 起業環境 税制調達 規制緩和
4.9 24.0 46.5 12.9 58.0 33.5
Surveys: more about realization period
Human Resource
University LinkageResearch Founding
Technological Realization
Market/Social Realization
18
Challenges
Questions to topics ◆ Realization time v Forecast the path from R&D to practical use
s When will a topic be feasible technologically?s When will a topic have a impact to socio-economic?
present future
Technological realization time
Social realization time
Time lag
R&D Policy
Innovation policy, etc.
19
Delphi Questionnaire Sheet
QuestionnaireEmerging/Key Technology
1st Round of Survey(Realization Period)
2st Round of Survey(Realization Period)
Time scale of technological and social realization for energy issue by Delphi Survey in 2010 (The 9th Delphi survey by NISTEP)
Technological realization time
Social realization time
Time lag
R&D Policy, Innovation policy, etc.
The Delphi is interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.
Is this subject important in Japan or where?Is this subject important in Japan or where?
How should we enhance R&D? How should we enhance R&D?
Should we strengthen the relation with which country?Should we strengthen the relation with which country?
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Government Supports (Ex. Hydrogen Energy)
0
50
100
0
50
100
6.56.9
6.36.9
Coordinated strengthening Coordinated
strengthening
Restriction strengthening
Restriction strengthening
Deregulation
Deregulation
International development
The Fund expansion
Infrastructure
Tax procurement
Establishment environment
Personnel training Personnel training This area
All area
This area
All area
Technical achievement Social application
Technical achievement Social application
25
How realized? How realized? -- 40 years experiments in foresight40 years experiments in foresightRealization rate of past Delphi surveys conduced between 1971-1992
0 50 100
Energy
Environment
Life science
Medical care
ration of topic numbers (%)
technical problems Social problems
cost problems alternatives emerged
insuf f icient needs
Preventive reasons
0 50 100
EnergyEnvironm
ent
Life scienceMedical
care
ration of topic numbers (%)
realized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010unrealized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010topics that were predicted to realized until 2009
*"realized " means "realized at full" and "realized partially".
0 20 40 60 80 100
st survey (1971)
2nd survey (1977)
3rd survey (1982)
4th survey (1987)
5th survey (1992) realized at full
partially realized
Ratio of Topics with accelerated realization
Around 70% of the topics in past Delphi surveys are realized at fully or partially.
Green Innovation - Workshop in Local Region
26
8 locations, attendee Total 129 (15-20 each)
1-AOMORIPeople are gathered peacefully and harmonizing with nature2- IWATE"Nothing" is strong point for development of our town3-YAMAGATAWe are No.1 of healthy and long life in Japan4-TSUKUBA
Research city where international sensibility was made use of to low carbon social type lifestyle
5-NAGOYASociety where harmonizing with convenient environment and cozy life style6-FUKUITown that overflows with rich amount of power generation energetically7-MIYAZAKIIt is an independence symbiosis doing, and a society in each other that can richly spend it 8-OKINAWAHappy society that is given to the rich sun and vast sea area and provided in new energy
2010 to 2050• Desirable society• Priority• service and business• contribute of S&T
etc.
The 1010thth foresight:Scenario planning to address challenges in the future
Combination of user-oriented discussion (backcast) and technology-oriented discussion (forecast).u Developing credible scenarios.u Providing policy options: S&T fields to invest for accelerated R&D toward
target years; technological options to remove bottleneck.
User-oriented discussion (back cast)
Technology-oriented discussion (forecast)
Policy options are derived from both backcast and forecast.
Only technology-oriented discussion doesn’t suit increased uncertainty of society in the future.- Increasing interaction between society and technology- Uncertain shifts in lifestyle and demand structure derived from coming
changes in society, environment and technology system
EvidenceEvidencebasebase
28
3. How should we make a sustainable society 持続可能な社会
•• Design of future Design of future 将来の設計将来の設計•• Design Design of future society of future society 将来社会将来社会
Eco systemEco systemClimate Climate change, resourcechange, resource, energy, energy
Social systemSocial systemPolicy, economy, Policy, economy, business, business, technologiestechnologies
Human systemHuman systemLife style, culture, Life style, culture, family, health, safetyfamily, health, safety
PovertyPoverty, food, , food, water,water, wastewaste
Disaster, infection,Disaster, infection,bio diversitybio diversity
Global Global warmingwarming
Consideration of Sustainable Development
The Economist 2010.11.20A special report on Japan:
“ Into the unknown ”
海外も注目
Prediction of POPULATION in Japan 2005 and 2055
2005年2005年
2055年2055年
31
Prediction of world’s water usage and populationpopulationWater usage Million people
20 century
33
Water treatment requires energy• To process of tap water requires energy
• Delivering water from treatment facility to home require energy
• Polluted water needs to treatment with energy before discharge to river/ocean
*東京都のデータより計算これは水使用に関するエネルギーです。実際には昇温のためのエネルギーが必要です。
Are you happy?Comparison of Happiness 幸福度の比較
Survey by Cabinet in Japan, and EU in 2010
HungaryUkraineUKDenmarkJapan
unhappy Very happy
Vision AVision A Vision BVision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthroughCentralized production
/recycle
Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume
locallyComfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
As for LCS As for LCS visions prepared visions prepared two two different typedifferent type
by Akemi ImagawaSource: http://2050.nies.go.jp
Our future life - Smart houseSmart grid
EV as energy storage (battery)
Electric Power generates with
development of health
Low energy consumption
Renewable energy
Power generation
No HFC
LED lights
Smart meter
Shifting to a Low-Carbon Society
+Refuse
GREENGREEN FLOATFLOAT
“Botanical city” will appear “Botanical city” will appear in the equatorial Pacific islandin the equatorial Pacific island
hight1000 m
1000 m
3000 m
Project Outline
City in the sky
Shop
2000 m500 m 500 m
Plant factory
Natural farmLagoon
Marine Forest・Coral reef・Mangrove
Terrestrial Forest・Natural Farm・Natural Amusement
Marine Forest・Aquafarming
Lagoon
Marine Forest・Beach Resort
41
4.Education 教育
•• rank of education rank of education 教育ランク教育ランク•• interesting of science interesting of science 科学への興味科学への興味
42
Comparison of ratio of Researcher’s number by performance sector
43
The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) by OECD
44
PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I)Student (15 years old) Performance in Mathematics, Reading and Science
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Reading 8 14 15 8 4Mathematics 1 6 10 9 7Science 2 2 6 5 4
123456789
101112131415
rank
65 countries in OECD in 2012 data
Japanese
In 2003
• 15 years old - No.2 within 25 countries
• Adult – No.22 within 25 countries
→ problem of education in University? Science literacy?
Comparison of knowledge for Adult and 15 years old
adult
15 years old high
Do you like science?
10 11 12 13 14 15
Years old
ScienceMathematicsScience news
47
For more information, please visit http://www.nistep.go.jp
Contact [email protected]
Thank you so much for your kind attention
48
1970
1980
199019931994
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Japan Similar Altered International
German DelphiⅠJapanese – German ComparisonFranceKorea〔1〕Japanese- German Mini-Delphi U.K.〔1〕
Australia New ZealandAustria
German Delphi Ⅱ South Africa APECHungary EU
Korea〔2〕 SwedenU.K.〔2〕Germany Futur IU.K.〔3〕
Japanese 〔1〕Japanese 〔2〕Japanese 〔3〕Japanese 〔4〕
Japanese 〔5〕
Japanese-German Comparison
Japanese-GermanMini- Delphi
Japanese 〔6〕
Japanese 〔7〕
Japanese 〔8〕
1990German Unification1991USSR Collapse
National foresight applications
50
Recent Major Events Related to S&T Policy
1994-95 Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ)1995 Science and Technology Basic Law1995-2009 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)1996 1996 Science and Technology Basic Plan Science and Technology Basic Plan ((19961996~~20002000))1998 Law to Promote Technology Transfer from Universities
(Japanese TLO Act)1999 Special Law to Revitalize Industry
(Japanese version of Bayh-Dole Act)2001 22001 2ndnd Science and Technology Basic Plan Science and Technology Basic Plan ((20012001~~2005)2005)
Reestablishment of the Reestablishment of the Gov. Gov. Structure :Structure : CSTP, MEXT etc.CSTP, MEXT etc.2002 Basic Law on Intellectual Property 2004 National 2004 National University University ➭➭ National University National University CorporationCorporation2006 32006 3rdrd Science and Technology Basic Plan (2006Science and Technology Basic Plan (2006~~20102010))2007 “Innovation 25”2009-12 The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)20112011 44th th Science and Technology Basic Plan (2011~2015) Science and Technology Basic Plan (2011~2015) 2012 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)20162016 55th th Science and Technology Basic Plan (Science and Technology Basic Plan (2016~2020) 2016~2020)
1995 1995 HanshinHanshin--Awaji Awaji EarthquakeEarthquake
2011 2011 Tohoku Tohoku EarthquakeEarthquake
Depiction of better life around Depiction of better life around 20252025
51
Various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail.
Individuals can use various types of energy selectively or comprehensively based on their own value judgment and feel that they are contributing to the prevention of global warming and environmental preservation.
A society has begun to respond to various disasters caused by changes in the environment.
Images derived from delphi topics which are predicted around 2025