Current Status and Ongoing Development of BlueSky

Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service)Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology)

Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project MeetingUW, April 13, 2007

BlueSky Framework

WEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT

FIRE INFORMATIONREPORTING SYSTEMS

FUEL LOADING

CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

MET INTERPRETER

DISPERSION

TRAJECTORIES

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

Framework is• Modular• Open-sourced• Portable

BlueSky Framework

WEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT

Wildfire ICS 209FASTRACS

RAZUManual

Other

FIRE INFORMATIONREPORTING SYSTEMS

FCCSHardy (West)

NFDRS

EPMFEPS

BURNUPIdealized profile

CONSUME 1.02CONSUME 3

BURNUP

MM5WRF

HYSPLIT

CALPUFFHYSPLIT

CALMM5

FUEL LOADING

CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

MET INTERPRETER

DISPERSION

TRAJECTORIES

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

Framework is• Modular• Open-sourced• Portable

Real-time products using BlueSkyNWS Smoke

Forecast Product(lower 48)

AirPACT3 & ClearSky(PNW, Lamb & Vaughan, WSU)

FCAMMS (5 regional centers, covering lower 48)

BlueSky + RAINS = BlueSkyRAINS

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BlueSky-West Frank Church Evaluation: Findings and Recommendations

Bluesky models long-range transport very well.

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• Fires are currently modeled as single plumes, lofting smoke unrealistically high and lowering ground impacts

• In reality, fires are made of many burning areas lofting smoke to various heights

Modeled

Reality

Plume Rise

Fire Information Issues

Fire information can be of poor quality

Smoke predictionsdepend on the fireinformation

Courtesy Tim Brown, DRI

U.S. Fire Report Locations

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Total PM 2.5 Emissions

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EPM FEPS FOFEM Consume3 EPM FEPS FOFEM Consume3

Frank Church

FCCS

HARDY

NFDRS

Rex Creek

Light HeavyFuel Loadings(even in the same veg type)

can vary hugely

Emissions based on Fuel Load and FuelConsumption ModelChoices

Photos courtesy Ottmar et al.

Which model is best?

The Next-Generation BlueSkyAirFire, Sonoma Technology, Inc., and NASA ROSES Grant

Facilitate sustained operations. Improve inputs and settings. Enhance user experience and access. Add user-oriented functions. Continue benchmarking performance.

courtesy W. Hao

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• Revamped code-base(Professional)

• More models• More modular• More reliable

• Eliminate variants

BlueSky Framework(new)

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SMARTFIRE

Ground-based systems

Satellite fire info(NOAA HMS)

Reconciled fire infoincluding sub-grid fuels and plume information

BLUESKY

SMARTFIRE: Incorporating satellite fire data

Expert Users(e.g. Incident Command Teams)

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August - September 2005

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Cave Creek Complex Fire Area Comparison

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6/22 6/24 6/26 6/28 6/30 7/2 7/4 7/6

Daily Acres (thousands)

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Cumulative Acres (thousands)

MODIS 750-m DailyMODIS 1-km dailyICS-209 DailyBARC CumulativeICS-209 CumulativeMODIS 750-m Cum.MODIS 1-km Cum.

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S. Raffuse, Sonoma Tech

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Overview Animations National Coordination Weather Related Links User Guide HelpBlueSky

Legend Scenario AdvancedCurrent Tool: Zoom InData

Predicted PM2.5 – 12 km

Surface Winds – 12 km

Modeled Surface Parameter

Modeled Wind Parameter

Measured Parameter

PM2.5 – AIRNow

Query

Contact Us Privacy and Security Statistics

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Overview Map

Advance Hour

PST

Go to Default Map Set as Default Map Clear Default Map

This spring: Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE) Initial BlueSky Framework rewrite available Consistent BlueSky predictions across all

FCAMMS + consistent RAINS implementation

Later this year: Integrated national 36km CMAQ grid + higher-

resolution regional FCAMMS forecasts Revised interface (AIRNowTech? RAINS2?) Partnering with AIRNow

By next year (?): Ability to ‘what-if’ prescribed burns Ensemble forecasts

Summary: Coming Soon

• International? (Satellite fire detects don’t stop at border)

• Incorporate all fire info sources(SMARTFIRE?)

• Run overall grid(e.g. 36km CMAQ, other)

• Have this feed more regional applications

- all in one [AQ need](CMAQ, WRF-CHEM, other)

- smoke management specific (turn fires off/on,

etc...)(CALPUFF/HYSPLIT)

The Future?

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User Needs

2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs for Air Quality

What is going to happen?would ideally like 1 number (possibly w/uncertainty or probability distribution)

care about all types of pollutants (not just smoke) for Smoke Management

What if? (I do this) (or that) (or that other thing)would ideally like to know what if? to a large number of management choices

Mostly just care about smoke

These two distinct user groups lead to different (but related) systems

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A Possible Solution

Overall National GridAll-in-one (one atmosphere)

Coarser grid

• CMAQ• ~36 km grid• 1 run• all pollutants

• EPA• NWS

Regional GridsHigher resolution

• 1-4 km grids (finer?)

Regional AQ• CMAQ• all pollutants• 1 run• EPA / NWS / ?

Smoke Management• many runs• smoke only• CALPUFF / HYSPLIT• USFS / USDOI / ?

Decisions impacting smoke