Lesley Deutch

Principal John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Mike Belmont

PresidentMinto Communities – USA

Jim Leiferman

PresidentMattamy Homes

Current Trends and Future Shifts in Florida’s Housing Market

Chris Ward

PrincipalPablo Creek Land

Session Outline

Quick Florida

Housing Market

Overview

WHO are the buyers?

WHAT are they looking

for?

WHEN will they buy?

WHERE: What

markets see strong

growth?

WHY/HOW:How do we overcome

obstacles to meet

demand?

FLORIDA HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

Current Housing Market RankingsJ B R E C M A R K E T H O T N E S S I N D E X F O R 5 0 L A R G E S T M A R K E T S

Florida’s Economy Is Growing, Led by Service Jobs

JACKSONVILLE

15,800

O R L A N D O

36,800

TA M PA

28,700

N A P L E S

4,700

SARASOTA

11,200

FORT MYERS

-1,200

WEST PALM BEACH

8,900

FT. LAUDERDALE

25,200

M I A M I

27,900

Florida’s Single-Family Permit Growth by Market

-20.2%

2.7%

2.9%

3.9%

12.9%

13.6%

14.4%

18.0%

19.0%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Miami

Naples

Sarasota

Orlando

West Palm Beach

Fort Lauderdale

Jacksonville

Fort Myers

Tampa

Single-Family Permit Growth (TTM)Trailing 12 Month, YOY % Change (Dec -17)

Florida’s Affordability by Market

6.2

6.7

7.3

8.3

8.4

8.6

8.6

8.7

8.7

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Jacksonville

Tampa

Orlando

Sarasota

Fort Myers

Fort Lauderdale

West Palm Beach

Naples

Miami

Burns Affordability Index (Feb. 2018)

MIAMIA Market Divided

o Slowdown in condo demand

from foreign buyers

o Single family affordable

market in Homestead, Doral

and Hialeah steady.

ORLANDOJob Growth and Diverse

Housing Base

o Diverse employment base

allows for wide range in

product types and

submarkets

o Home prices still rising and

demand steady

o First-time homebuyer is

strong in Orlando; looking

towards Osceola, Lake and

Polk Counties.

PANHANDLERising Activity

o Available land at relatively

low prices is driving interest

from developers/builders.

o Looking to capture 55+

demand

o St. Joe’s Bay-Walton Plan

will have an impact FORT LAUDERDALEInfill and Condos

o Demand is strong across all

product segments, despite

rising prices

o Limited land available for

development

o Infill increasingly becoming

popular

o Condo construction aimed

at end-user (not foreign

investors)

WEST PALM BEACHWatch Affordability

o Western suburbs

expanding; affordability is

key

o Rapid price escalation

slowed demand

JACKSONVILLEGrowing Rapidly

o Boomtown in St. Johns

County

o Demand is stronger for

under $400K

o School district drives

housing demand; impact

fees rising

TAMPAJobs Driven

o Affordability is still #1 concern

o Strong employment growth is

increasing overall demand

o Rising supply has made

builders extremely competitive

o Tampa seeing influx of

younger residents looking for

jobs

SARASOTAA Rediscovered Gem

o Good “bang for your buck” –

especially on the custom

home side

o Increasing public builder

presence

o Buyers are retirees, second

home, and families

o Competition is rising

FORT MYERSGrowth in 2018

o Rapid home price

appreciation in Estero/ Bonita

Beach

o Remains an affordability play

in central and north Fort

Myers

o Midwest buyer is still

predominant

o Family buyer presence is

increasing

NAPLESImproving Rapidly

o Strong season ahead

o Tax bill sending buyers from

Northern markets

WHO IS THE BUYER?

Growth will be 25-44 & 65+ households.

10.2 M

3.3 M

-1.0 M

25–44 45–64 65+

H O U S E H O L D C H A N G E B Y A G E G R O U P, 2 0 1 6 – 2 0 2 5

WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR?

Consumer and Product InsightsS A M P L E S I Z E S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting 2018 Consumer and Product Insights Survey

Respondents include new home shoppers that registered

interest with new home builders online or in their sales office.

Our questions are all focused on future home preference.

23,720 1,867

NATIONAL FLORIDA

What’s Important to Them?

C O M M U N I T Y F E AT U R E S H O M E F E AT U R E S

D E S I G N

P R I C E

S A F E T Y

L O C AT I O N

STREET APPEAL F U N C T I O N

Where Do They Want to Live?

3%

50%

16%

11%

19%

Urban RuralSurban Suburban Simple Suburban

What’s Their Style?

49% Somewhat/Very Traditional

Modern Traditional, Traditional,

& Casual Contemporary

INTERIORS

EXTERIORS

59% Traditional vs. 32% Modern

Mediterranean, Craftsman, &

Traditional

Next Home Preferences

Desire a 1-story

home, with 19%

wanting 2-story,

master down

61%Expect their next

home to be larger

in size, while 30%

expect equal in size

45%Desire single-family

detached

87%Are looking for a

home with less

than 2,500 square

feet

53%

Want a home with

a 3-car garage;

51% want a 2-car

garage

44%Expect to consider

accommodating an

elderly parent, while

21% expect to have

an 18+ child

23%Expect to pay less

than $450K

72%Want a remote-

operated guard

gate and expect to

pay $35 more per

month for it

64%

WHEN WILL THEY MOVE?

Expect a shift back to the suburbs + retirement surge

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

NET

NU

MB

ER O

F P

EOP

LE

(MIL

LIO

NS)

AGE

55–64

Empty Nester

+655 K

(+1.6%)

20–29

Young Adult

-33 K

(-0.1%)

30–44

Family Formation

+8.1 M

(+13.1%)

65-79

Retirement

+14.5 M

(+40.7%)

F U T U R E C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 5

Florida MSAs Are Big In-Migration MarketsB A S E D O N U - H A U L T R U C K R E N TA L P R I C I N G

#1 Atlanta $923

#2 Jacksonville $753

#7 Tampa $539

#10 Orlando $486

#27 San Francisco ($1,317)

Premium Rank

In-Migration

Markets

Mattamy Homes - Tapestry

Minto Communities – Latitude Margaritaville

Jacksonville – Nocatee

WHERE: WHAT MARKETS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GROWTH?

19,300

13,800

8,200

21,200

4,500

6,960

4,180

4,300

7,940

19,453

18,292

12,596

10,151

4,090

6,943

4,152

5,207

8,174

Florida’s Current and Forecasted Permit Issuance (Total SF & MF, Rolling 12 Months)

ORLANDO

TAMPA

JACKSONVILLE

MIAMI

SARASOTA

FORT MYERS

FORT LAUDERDALE

NAPLES

WEST PALM BEACH

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, JBREC

Current Data reflects 12 months ending December 2017; Compiled February 2018. 2021 is JBREC Forecast.

2017 Permits 2021 Forecasted Permits

WHY/HOW DO WE BUILD FOR THE NEW BUYER?

Is the Answer in New Technologies?

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting 2018 Consumer and Product Insights Survey

Lesley Deutch

Principal John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Mike Belmont

PresidentMinto Communities – USA

Jim Leiferman

PresidentMattamy Homes

THANK YOU

Chris Ward

PrincipalPablo Creek Land