Current Trends and Future

Bioenergy Trends

© OECD/IEA 2010

Adam Brown

Senior Energy Analyst

IEA, Paris

The State and Future of Bioenergy

Tokyo International forum

17 November 2011

Topics

� Current Trends in Biomass for Energy

� The Role of Bioenergy in a Sustainable Energy

Future

� IEA Roadmaps on Biofuels and Bioenergy

© OECD/IEA 2010

Trends in Biomass Use for Energy

30

40

50

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

Mto

eOECD liquid biofuels

OECD biogas

OECD primary solid biomass

© OECD/IEA 2010

0

10

20

0

200

400

600

EJ

biomass

Non-OECD liquid biofuels

Non-OECD biogas

Non-OECD primary solid biomass

Recent Trends in Biofuels Production

30

40

50

60

Mto

eEU-27 biodiesel US bioethanol

Brazil bioethanol RoW biofuels

© OECD/IEA 2010

0

10

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mto

e

Recent Trends in Bioelectricity

Production

150

200

250

300

TW

h

© OECD/IEA 2010

0

50

100

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TW

h

United States Germany China Brazil Japan RoW

The IEA Blue Map Scenario – Towards a

Low Carbon Future

© OECD/IEA 2010

� Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and

climate policies

� BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050

through CO2-price and strong support policies

� Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps

� 23% of global emission savings occur in the transport sector

Biomass use in ETP 2010

� Biomass currently provides around 1100 Mtoe (50 EJ) of primary

energy per year

� 190 Mtoe (8 EJ)/yr of commercial heat and power and 40 Mtoe

(1.7 EJ)/yr of liquid transport fuels

� Traditional biomass accounts for over 800 Mtoe (35 EJ) /yr

� In BLUE Map scenario biomass use increases to around 3400 Mtoe

(145EJ)/yr in 2050.

� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomass

© OECD/IEA 2010

� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomassFinal Bioenergy Use in ETP 2010 Blue Map

IEA Roadmaps - Bioenergy

� Roadmaps are intended to:

� Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon

technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

� Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term

milestones, including:

� Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these

� Identify key conversion pathways

� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability

© OECD/IEA 2010

� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability

� Identify market requirements and policy needs

� Define international collaboration needs

� Biofuels for Transport

� Published April 2011

� Bioenergy for Heat and Power

� Work in progress

� Published Spring 2012

Global Biomass Potential

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

© OECD/IEA 2010

� A considerable potential of “low risk” biomass sources has been assessed

� Biomass for biofuel production (65 EJ) could come entirely from residues,

wastes, and sustainably grown energy crops

Source: Adapted from Dornburg

et al., 2008 and Bauen et al.,

2009, and supplemented with

data from IEA, 2010c.

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision

� Global biofuel supply grows

from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in

2050

� Biofuels share in total

transport fuel increases from

2% today, to 27% in 2050

� Diesel/kerosene-type

biofuels become particularly

Fin

al e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

© OECD/IEA 2010

important to decarbonise

heavy transport modes

� Biofuels could reduce global

transport emissions by 2.1 Gt

CO2-eq. in 2050

� Large-scale deployment of

advanced biofuels will be

vital to meet the roadmap

targets

Fin

al e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

Land RequirementsPressure on agricultural land can be

limited and risk of ILUC can be mitigated

through:

� Productivity improvements

� Use of residues and wastes

� Use of pasture/ unused land

� Potential for wood biomass

� Biomass cascading & biorefineries

© OECD/IEA 2010

� Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha in 2050, in

addition to 1 billion tons of residues

� Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand for food

and biomaterial

� Sound policies are needed to ensure sustainability and mitigate risk of indirect land-use

change (ILUC)

� In the long-term, a sustainable land-use management for all agricultural and forestry

land is needed.

� Land-use zoning and sustainable land-

use management schemes

Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products

Sustainability of Biofuels

� Sound policies are needed to ensure biofuels are produced

© OECD/IEA 2010

� Sound policies are needed to ensure biofuels are produced

sustainably

� Adoption of internationally aligned sustainability certification for

biofuels

� Certification schemes should be based on international

sustainability criteria (as developed e.g. by the Global Bioenergy

Partnership, GBEP)

� However, most sustainability issues are relevant to the whole

agricultural/ forestry sector

� Ultimately, all agricultural and forestry products should be certified

Key policy actions

� Stability:

� Create a long-term policy framework for bioenergy

� Innovation and Deployment:

� Provide sustained funding for advanced biofuels RD&D and commercial

deployment.

� Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential

analysis.

© OECD/IEA 2010

� Sustainability:

� Adopt sound, internationally aligned sustainability certification for biofuels.

� Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels.

� Incentivise use of wastes and residues.

� International Collaboration:

� Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology

transfer.

� Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture,

forestry, rural development).