current trends in the saskatchewan labour market · the statistics canada labour force survey (lfs)...

CURRENT TRENDS IN THESASKATCHEWAN LABOUR MARKET

Presentation prepared for the:

Saskatchewan Adult Basic Education Association

March 15, 2013Doug Elliott

Sask Trends Monitor444 19th Avenue

Regina, SaskatchewanS4N 1H1

[email protected]

www.sasktrends.ca

OUTLINE

Data Source: Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey

Overview of Short and Long Term Employment Trends

Characteristics of the Employed

Characteristics of the Positions

The Relationship between Education and Employment

Those Not in the Labour Force

Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada; estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor

March 15, 2013 2

LABOUR MARKET TRENDS

THE LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

The Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a monthly survey that provides almost all of the current information about the labour market in Canada.

The sample size in Canada is over 50,000 households with about 4,000 in Saskatchewan. Depending on the number of individuals in the households, this yields labour market information for approximately 7,000 Saskatchewan adults per month.

From Saskatchewan’s point of view, the main weaknesses of the LFS are the exclusion of:

• the on-Reserve population; and

• temporary foreign workers.

March 15, 2013 4

Employed537,100

66%

Unemployed26,700

3%

Not in the labour force,

65+119,200

15%

Not in the labour force,

15-64128,000

16%

Labour Force Status, Annual Average for 2012 Saskatchewan (adult population = 811,000)

employment rate = 66.2% unemployment rate = 4.7% participation rate = 69.5%

LONG TERM TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN EMPLOYMENT

After dropping sharply in 2001, employment has been growing in recent years at an average annual rate of 1.4%.

This follows a period of about fifteen years with virtually no growth at all.

The 1.4% annual increase translates into about 7,000 new jobs per year.

The increase in 2012 was particularly high - 2.1% or the equivalent of 11,200 new jobs.

March 15, 2013 5

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

530

550

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Total Employment in Saskatchewan, 1976 to 2012

thousands

average annual growth

1.9% 0.0% 1.4%

MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN

Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, employment was effectively flat throughout 2010 and 2011.

There was a jump in the spring of 2012 and another in early 2013.

March 15, 2013 6

500

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Monthly Employment in Saskatchewan, Seasonally Adjusted

thousands

2009 2010 2011 2012

LONG TERM TRENDS FOR PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR FORCE

There has been a gradual but steady decline in the number of those who were neither working nor looking for work.

The number of people out of the labour force increased sharply in 2011 and than again in 2012.

This is the group that needs to be tapped if employment growth is to be internally sourced.

Some of these are stay-at-home spouses, early retirees, those with a medical problem or those who live in remote areas.

Others will be the target for SABAE because many are not working because they do not have the right levels of education.

March 15, 2013 7

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Persons Not in the Labour Force(25 to 64 Years of Age) 1981 to 2012

thousands

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FROM 2007 TO 2012

During the boom years, Saskatchewan’s annual employment growth was above the national average for the first time in decades.

March 15, 2013 8

0.8%

1.5%

1.3%

1.3%

1.2%

1.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.7%

0.3%

-0.3%

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Canada

Alta

Sask

Nfld

PEI

Man

B.C.

Que

Ont

NS

NB

Average Annual Growth in Employment by Province, 2007 to 2012

EMPLOYMENT RATES IN 2012

One of the reasons why employment hasn’t been increasing even more quickly is a mismatch between the demand for and supply of workers.

This figure shows the employment rate (the percentage of the population with a job) in the primary labour market age group.

The prairie provinces have always had the highest employment rates in Canada.

March 15, 2013 9

81.4%

84.5%

84.4%

84.3%

81.6%

81.4%

80.7%

80.2%

80.0%

78.7%

75.3%

65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%

Canada

Alta

Man

Sask

Que

PEI

Ont

B.C.

NS

NB

Nfld

Employment Rates in 2012, 25 to 54 Years of Age

SUB-PROVINCIAL DATA

REGIONS IN THE LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

The LFS has a large enough sample size to provide employment estimates for seven regions in the province including two “census metropolitan areas”.

The LFS measures employment according to where you live not where you work.

March 15, 2013 11

SaskatoonCMA

ReginaCMA

North

West Central

East Central

Southwest

Southeast

Estevan

Weyburn

Melville

Swift Current

Yorkton

Kindersley

Melfort

Nipawin

Humboldt

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Lloydminster

Meadow Lake

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN METROPOLITAN AREAS

There is a long standing trend toward growth in Saskatoon at the expense of other parts of the province.

Employment among residents of the two metropolitan areas now accounts for about one half of the employment in the province.

The two cities had similar employment levels in the early 1990s but Saskatoon has been growing much more quickly since then although 2010 and 2011 were notable exceptions.

March 15, 2013 12

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Regina and Saskatoon Employment

ReginaCMA

SaskatoonCMA

thousands

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY REGION, 2007 TO 2012

From 2007 to 2012, employment grew in four of the seven regions within the province.

The pace of growth was highest among residents of:

• the Regina and Saskatoon metropolitan areas;

• those who live in the southeast (Weyburn/ Estevan); and the

• the North.

March 15, 2013 13

1.3%

2.8%

1.8%

1.6%

1.4%

0.1%

-1.3%

-1.3%

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Saskatchewan

Regina

Southeast

Saskatoon

North

West Central

East Central

Southwest

Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY REGION, 2012

Saskatoon has bounced back strongly in 2012.

March 15, 2013 14

2.1%

4.7%

2.7%

2.6%

1.5%

0.3%

-0.8%

-3.0%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon

Regina

Southeast

North

West Central

Southwest

East Central

Growth in Employment, 2012

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EMPLOYED

Employment Trends in Saskatchewan in the five years ending in 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY GENDER, 2007 TO 2012

Employment had been growing more quickly among women than among men throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s.

This long-standing trend has reversed in the past few years because more new jobs have been in industries which are dominated by men (e.g. construction and the resource sector)

Men outnumber women in the labour market by a ratio of 54:46.

March 15, 2013 16

537,100

291,200

245,900

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Both sexes

Men

Women


employment in 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY AGE GROUP, 2007 TO 2012

Employment growth has been most pronounced among older workers.

Some but not all of the change is the result of demographics, that is, more or fewer people in the age group. The rest of the change is the result of higher participation rates.

Anecdotally, the growth in older workers (55 plus) seems to be the result of a delay in retirements.

The growth among those 25 to 34 years of age is partly driven by demographic trends and partly by inter-provincial and international in-migration.

March 15, 2013 17

85,200

116,200

103,400

121,300

86,800

24,200

537,100

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

15 to 24 years

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 & older

All ages


employment in 2012

EMPLOYMENT BY COMPLETED EDUCATION, 2007 TO 2012

The highest rate of employment growth since 2007 has been among those with a university degree.

Growth rates are lower than expected for those with a post-secondary diploma or certificate.

March 15, 2013 18

70,600

134,900

39,900

178,500

113,200

537,100

-6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9%

Less than high school

High school only

Partial post-secondary

Certificate/diploma

University Degree

All levels of education


employment in 2012

EMPLOYMENT AMONG ABORIGINAL PEOPLE OFF-RESERVE

We only have Aboriginal employment data for the off-Reserve population and only from 2007 on.

Employment growth was strong in 2007 with 30% of the provincial employment increase accounted for by people reporting an Aboriginal identity and living off Reserve.

This reversed in the more recent time period with employment growing in the non-Aboriginal population more quickly than in the Aboriginal population.

Over the five years ending in 2012, Aboriginal employment has grown more quickly than non-Aboriginal employment.

March 15, 2013 19

495,500

15,000

24,800

39,800

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Non-Aboriginal

First Nation

Métis

Total

Abo

rigin

al


employment in 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AMONG IMMIGRANTS, 2007 TO 2012

Although the numbers are small, the employment growth from 2007 to 2012 among recent immigrants has been quite remarkable, averaging 25% per year.

Notwithstanding the increase, recent immigrants still account for only 3½% of the employment in 2012.

March 15, 2013 20

19,100

29,600

476,800

537,100

-5% 0% 5% 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Immigrated in the past five years

Immigrated more than five years ago

Born in Canada

Total


employmentin 2012

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE JOB

Employment trends since 2007 according to the characteristics of the job rather than the characteristics of the person.

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CLASS OF WORKER, 2007 TO 2012

There are some signs of the widely anticipated shift to contract employment. Since 2007, the strongest rates of employment growth have been in casual and contract positions.

Permanent paid jobs now account for 71% of total employment.

March 15, 2013 22

98,300

380,400

13,500

25,600

19,000

438,800

537,100

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Self employed

Permanent

Seasonal

Contract or term

Casual

All employees

Total employment

Em

ploy

ees


employmentin 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY NUMBER OF JOBS, 2007 TO 2012

In 2012, 7% of those who were working held two jobs simultaneously, called multiple job holders.

Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of multiple job holders in Canada.

The number of multiple job holders has declined since 2007. This may be related to the improved economics in farming, a sector in which a lot of multiple job holders work.

March 15, 2013 23

37,200

499,900

537,100

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Multiple job holders

Single job holders

Both


employmentin 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY TENURE, 2007 TO 2012

There have been many forecasts of an increase in turnover in the labour market as young people change careers more often.

After years of steady increasing tenure, average tenure in Saskatchewan is now starting to drop.

From 2007 to 2012, the average tenure dropped from 116 months to 112 months.

March 15, 2013 24

68,600

45,100

167,300

81,200

86,100

89,000

537,100

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

One to six months

7 to 12 months

1 to 4.9 years

5 to 9.9 years

10 to 19.9 years

20 or more years

All


employmentin 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY HOURS OF WORK, 2007 TO 2012

Employment is growing more quickly among those who work full-time hours. (Part time work is defined as those who normally work less than 30 hours/week at their main or only job.)

Even with the increase in the number of involuntary part-time workers, they still make up only 20% of part-timers.

March 15, 2013 25

443,800

74,200

19,100

537,100

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Full time

Voluntary part time

Involuntary part time

Total


employment in 2012

AVERAGE HOURS WORKED, MAIN JOB, 2007 TO 2012

There is no evidence that the province’s employees are working longer hours to meet the increase in demand.

The average weekly hours worked in 2012 was 34.6 compared with 34.5 in 2007 and 35.2 in 2000.

March 15, 2013 26

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

35.5

36.0

36.5

37.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Average Hours Worked per Week, Main Job Only, Saskatchewan

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR, 2007 TO 2012

In spite of the booming economy, the public sector (broadly defined to include the crowns, health, and education as well as government proper) is growing more quickly than the private sector.

During the period from 2007 to 2012, public sector employment increased by an average of 2.1% per year compared with 1.0% per year for the private sector.

March 15, 2013 27

138,300

300,600

98,300

398,900

537,100

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Public sector

Paid

Self-employed

Private sector total

All

Priv

ate

sect

or


employmentin 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY GROUP, 2007 TO 2012

March 15, 2013 28

27,200

38,900

80,600

30,900

19,400

26,000

43,000

31,300

13,100

30,200

70,100

25,600

31,500

25,000

44,400

537,100

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Wholesale and retail trade

Accommodation and food services

Information, culture, recreation

Transportation and warehousing

Educational services

Public administration

Business services

Finance, insurance, real estate

Health care and social assistance

Personal and household services

Resources, utilities

Professional, scientific, technical services

Construction

All industries


employmentin 2012

EMPLOYMENT BY UNION MEMBERSHIP, 2007 TO 2012

The strong growth in the public sector where the majority of workers are union members has kept the rate of growth in union positions above the rate of growth in non-union positions.

March 15, 2013 29

155,300

283,500

438,800

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Union

Non Union

All paid workers


employment in 2012

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SIZE OF FIRM, 2007 TO 2012

Employment is growing more quickly in larger firms than in smaller ones.

Part of the reason will be the growth in the public sector where firms tend to be larger.

March 15, 2013 30

173,800

149,900

76,800

38,300

438,800

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Less than 20

20 to 99

100 to 499

500 or more

All paid workers


employmentin 2012

HOURLY WAGE RATES IN SASKATCHEWAN

The booming economy and shortage of workers has enabled wage rates to rise rapidly.

From 2007 to 2012, the increase has averaged 2.8% per year after adjusting for inflation.

This is well above the national average.

March 15, 2013 31

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

$24

$26

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Hourly Wage Rate, Paid Employees Only, Saskatchewan

in constant $2012

annual % change

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATION AND THELABOUR MARKET

EMPLOYMENT RATES BY LEVEL OF COMPLETED EDUCATION

The probability of finding a job increases significantly as the level of education increases.

The chart shows the employment rates for those in the “primary labour market” age group, namely those 25 to 54 years of age.

In this age group, 56% of persons with less than Grade 9 are working. The percentage increases to 83% among those who have graduated from high school and to 88% among post-secondary graduates.

March 15, 2013 33

56%

68%

83%

80%

88%

88%

84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Less than Grade 9

Some high school

High school graduate

Incomplete post-secondary

Certificate or diploma

University degree

All levels of education

Employment Rates, Population 25 to 54 Years of Age, Saskatchewan, 2012

AVERAGE WAGE RATES BY LEVEL OF COMPLETED EDUCATION

Whereas having grade 12 almost ensures an opportunity for employment, higher levels of education are required for a significantly higher wage rate.

The average wage rate for those with a high school diploma was $21.24 in 2012 which is 17% less than the average of $25.44 for those with a post-secondary certificate.

University graduates, in turn, earn 20% more than those with a certificate or diploma.

March 15, 2013 34

$18.38

$16.77

$21.24

$20.81

$25.44

$30.49

$24.11

$10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35

Less thanGrade 9

Some highschool

Highschool

graduate

Incompletepost-

secondary

Certificateor diploma

Universitydegree

All levelsof

education

Average Hourly Wage Rates, by Level of Completed Education, Saskatchewan, 2012

PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR MARKET

PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR FORCE, SASKATCHEWAN, 2012

There were 247,200 persons not in the labour force during an average month in 2012. These are people who are neither working nor looking for work.

With the skill shortage in Saskatchewan, one of the questions that often arises is the extent to which we can use this group to meet labour market needs.

Of the total, almost two-thirds are either seniors (probably permanently retired) or full-time students (better off in school than working).

That leaves 91,400 possible new entrants to the labour force.

Remember that this is the Labour Force Survey so there will be lots of folks living on Reserve who are not in the labour force.

March 15, 2013 36

65 & Older119,200

Full time students36,600

Other91,400

Not in the Labour Force, Saskatchewan, 2012, Total = 247,200

PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR FORCE, SASKATCHEWAN, 2012

Among the 91,400 who are not full-time students or seniors, about one half are probably retired (50 to 64 years of age) or women who are at home looking after young children.

There were 25,400 persons with less than grade 12. Many would be available for work if they completed an ABE program.

March 15, 2013 37

Less than grade 12

25,400

With pre-schoolers at

home12,300

Early retirees? (ages 50 to 64)

34,800

All others (15 to 49)

18,900

Not in the Labour Force, Not Students or Seniors, Total = 91,400

AGE FOR THOSE WITH LESS THAN GRADE 12

Drilling down into the 25,400 who were 15 to 64 years age and with less than grade 12, we find:

• one quarter in the 15 to 24 age group;

• one quarter 25 to 44 years of age; and

• one half 45 & older.

The first two age groups will probably be more responsive to ABE than the third?

March 15, 2013 38

15 to 24 years of age6,600



Not in the Labour Force, Less than Grade 12, Total = 25,400

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