cvcue keynote
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
The Day Analog Died.
Brian Bridges
CLRN.org
I KNOW HOW MURDOCH GOT INTO TROUBLE.
Let’s play, “Guess your password.”
10 Most Common Passwords.
1998
10 Most Common Passwords.
1212
10 Most Common Passwords.
2222
10 Most Common Passwords.
0852
10 Most Common Passwords.
5683
10 Most Common Passwords.
5555
10 Most Common Passwords.
1111
10 Most Common Passwords.
2580
10 Most Common Passwords.
0000
10 Most Common Passwords.
1234
Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns
Clayton Christensen and Michael Horn
Disruptive Innovation Theory
• Customers’ needs tend to be stable• Companies improve their products• Most innovations improve products for current customers
• Some sustaining innovations represent dramatic breakthroughs
Sustaining the Camera
Disruptive Innovations…
• NOT a breakthrough improvement
• Existing customers can not utilize it• And are not attracted to it
• Benefit “non consumers”
The Disruptive Cycle
• Competing for non-consumers• Technology improves / cost declines
• Compete for original customers
Digital Cameras
• When was the digital camera invented?
The Camera Disruption
• First digital camera by Kodak (1975)• .01 megapixels
The Camera Disruption
• First digital camera by Kodak (1975)• .01 megapixels
• Kodak DCS 100 (1991)• 1 Megapixel for $13K
• Film still thrived
1999: 2MB Camera
NY Times: Christmas, 2001
• “The digital camera market just exploded this year.”
• And Kodak stock began a long slide down
Change is a Process
Digital Books
• When was the first digital book created?
• 1971• Project Guttenberg
The First e-book
• When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another,
The First e-reader
E-book Timeline
Project Gutenberg
• www.gutenberg.org• > 33K free e-books• EPUB format (among others)• July 2010: Amazon.com reports e-book
sales have surpassed printed books.
Change is a Process
Textbook Deathwatch:
The Digital Textbook Revolution
Virginia
• Adopted CK-12 Physics book to supplement HS Physics book
Texas: H.B. 4294
• Allows state to adopt electronic textbooks
• Textbook funds may be used to purchase technological equipment necessary to support electronic textbooks
Texas H.B 4294
• eTextbook publishers may submit updated content for review
• Districts/schools may select a subscription-based electronic textbook
TexasH.B. 2488
• Authorizes colleges or the state to develop open source textbooks for use in classrooms
California Legislation
• AB 1398, relating to the use of textbook funds
• Redefines “technology-based materials” to include electronic equipment required to use them
California Legislation
• SB 247 relating to high school textbook purchases
• Textbook funds may be used to purchase electronic versions
• Districts must ensure all students have access at home & school
California Digital Textbook Initiative
• Phases 1 & 2: Free or Open Source• Phase 3: Online & Interactive• High School • Math, Science, & History-Social
Science
Phase 1 page
FDTI Results
THREE DIRECTIONS FOR DIGITAL TEXTBOOKS
Flat & Linear Digital Books
Comparing eReader Models
• Amazon Kindle Series• B&N Nook• Apple iPad
Amazon Kindle
• Introduced November 2007• Kindle 2, Feb 2009, $259• Current Price: $114/$139• Format: AZW (proprietary)
B&N Nook
• Introduced 2009 @ $259• Current Price: $139• Formats: ePub, PDF
Apple iPad
• Introduced 2010 @ $499• Format: DRM-enabled ePub
Online, Interactive
RENTING TEXTBOOKS
CourseSmart
CourseSmart
• Macroeconomics• List Price: $210• Amazon: $110• Kindle: $88• CourseSmart: $58
Rent Textbooks?
Never!!!
REALLY? YOU’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE
Discovery StreamingLearn 360Safari/Montage
Oregon & Hawaii Just Did
• Discover Education Science for K-8
• Online, subscription-based• Textbook, virtual labs, simulations, video clips, & assessments
Macmillan: DynamicBooks
• Digital Textbook• Downloadable or readable online
• Professors have full edit rights • Embed video, multimedia, & assessments• Receive royalties
• Priced at 40% of retail
Ipad-Centric
HMH FUSE Algebra I
• Interactive digital textbook• Direct instruction, • Support, • assessment & intervention
• 400 students / four district pilot
Digital Textbooks: Next Stop?
Electronic textbook = textbook - book
Electronic Textbook
• Electronic Textbook = (Textbook – book) + streamed lecture clips + streaming video clips + interactive apps + multimeda + assessment + “live” links
Benefit of Electronic/Interactive Resources
• Easily updated• Student centric• Address a variety of learning
modalities
Digital Textbook Growth
Online Course Revolution
Just as digital textbooks grew first in colleges, online course growth has preceded growth in K-12.
Online Learning
• When were online courses invented?
Online Correspondence
• 1728• Boston Gazette Ad• Teacher seeking students with lessons mailed weekly
A Long Evolution
• Correspondence Courses• Distance Learning (satellite) courses• Instructional Learning Systems • 1999: Florida Virtual School
Online Course Growth
• Allan & Seaman/Sloan Consortium
• Class Differences: Online Education in the United States, 2010
Students Learning Online
• 2002: 1.6 million students • 9.6% of enrollment
• 2005: 3.2 million students• 18% of enrollment
• 2009: 5.6 million students• 29% of enrollment
• Online learning increases by 20% each year
You see the train coming?
Comparing Learning Outcomes
• 75% believe that online courses are as good or better than face-to-face instruction.
• 60% of academic leaders believe that there is increasing competition for online students in higher education.
Survey of Online Learning Preparedness, 2010
Education Week/Blackboard
Survey Demographics
• August 2010• 9400 responses, across all district sizes, and states• 18% from Superintendents and Asst.
Superintendents• 12% from Directors of Curriculum or
Instruction
Students are NOT able to take all the courses they want.
“lack of available staff”
Students need personalized pacingStudents need more learning time outside school
Students need additional or alternative credit recovery opportunities
Your district meets students online learning needs
Denial
Your districts wants to deliver courses virtually
Only non-consumers like the menu at the Disruptive Innovation restaurant
Project Tomorrow
Why are Students choosing online courses?
Why are Students Choosing Online Courses?
• Earn college credit• Work at my own pace• Class not offered at my school• Complete HS requirements• Better fits my schedule
Online Course Non-Consumers• Orphan Courses
• AP anything / World languages
• Independent Study• Credit Recovery• College Credit• Summer School• Home School
DISRUPTING CLASS @ ONLINE COURSES
2013: Tipping point2019: 50% of all
The US Market for Self-paced eLearning Products and Services: 2010-2015 Forecast and Analysis
Ambient Insight
Summary posted at T.H.E. Journal
Product Substitution
• When consumers begin buying the disruption instead of the original product.
2010-2015 Growth
How do you know if it’s any good?
Self- Reviewing Resources
Just like you do now for high school textbooks.
CCSESA TTSC Survey
Online Credit Recovery Programs
August 2010
Describe the Selection Process
• Vendor demonstrations• Open bid to vendors• Cost
CLRN Online Course Reviews
• CLRN reviews HS ELA & Math courses
• Common Core and the original recipe standards.
• National standards for quality online courses
Individual Course Review
Who are the Players?
• From Keeping Pace 2010
Multi-District Full-Time Online Schools
• Charter or District Run• Offering Full Time Courses• State-wide Reach
• California Virtual Academy• Flex Academies• Connections Academy
Single District Programs
• Run by a Single District• Full Time or Supplemental• Offering Courses only to District Students
Commercial Players
• Florida Virtual School / Pearson• K12.com
• Aventa, Kaplan, A+, …• Connections Academy/Pearson• Advanced Academics• Plato• Apex• Odysseyware• And on and on
Florida Virtual School
• Founded 1997• Internet-based public high school• FLVS gets the ADA
• 100 courses available to all students in Florida
• Licensed by Pearson in the other 49
FLVS Growth Data
K12.com Courses
• Math• English• History• Science• World Languages• Electives
K.12 Math Courses
• Math Foundations
• Algebra I & II• Geometry• Pre-Calculus/Trig• AP Calculus• AP Statistics
• Independent Study• $30/month
• Teacher-supported• $375/semester
California Virtual Academy
• Virtual charter school• 10, district sponsored charter schools around CA.
• Curriculum provided by K12.com
California’s Virtual Academies
• >50 CA Virtual Schools• 2010/11 enrollment: 20,000 students
• $120,000,000 ADA lost
Will Online Courses Put K-12 Schools Out of Business?
• Stock Price• January 1999 – January 2011
The Kodak Slide
1999: $63/share
1/2002: iPhoto Released
1/2011: $5.50/Share
92% decrease over 12 yearsThis could be the trend line for your ADA the next 12 years.
Established vs. Disruptive
• Digital cameras destroyed Polaroid, Fuji, and nearly Kodak.
• Charter school competition.• Online Schools- State-led Virtual
Schools w/o boundaries.
Disruptive in Florida
7K Students / No Teacher
• 54 schools & 7,000 students• Virtual Classrooms/e-learning labs
• 40 students. One class “facilitator.”
• Curriculum from Florida Virtual School
Play to your strengths
• But prepare for the future.• What do you offer that online
schools/courses can’t?• Non-consumer students at your
school• Offer online courses that meet your
students’ needs.
THE RISE OF K-12 BLENDED LEARNING
January 2011Michael Horn & Heather Staker
Blended Learning
• Only 10% of students will join virtual schools.
• Blended learning (blended/hybrid) will dominate
• Six probable models
Six Blended Models
• 1. Face-to Face Driver• Face-to-face teachers deliver most of
the courses.• Teacher utilizes online learning on a
case-by-case basis to supplement or remediate.
• 2. Rotation• Students rotate on a fixed schedule
between online learning and face-to-face.
Six Blended Models
• 3. Flex• Online platform delivers most of the
curriculum.• Teachers provide on-site support as-
needed.
• 4. Online Lab• Online platform delivers the entire
course.• Paraprofessionals supervise.
Six Blended Models
• 5. Self-Blend• Students choose to take one or more
courses online to supplement the school’s catalog.
• 6. Online Driver• An online platform and remote teacher
delivers all the curricula.• Students work remotely.
The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning
Online learning has the potential to be a disruptive force that will transform … America’s schools into a new model that is student-centric, highly personalized for each learner, and more productive…
Michael Horn
Independence Days
• 1743• 1971• 1975
10 Reasons Why Students Prefer Learning Online
Virtual School Symposium Panel
10 Reasons
1. I can sleep in.2. I can pursue my passions.3. I can focus on my work
without distractions from my classmates.
4. I can move at my own pace.5. I don’t have to compete to
share my thoughts and ideas.
10 Reasons
6. I can take more interesting classes.
7. I can learn with a schedule that meets my needs.
8. I can learn despite health issues that might get in a way of a traditional class setting.
9. I can easily communicate with my teacher when I need to.
10.I can easily communicate with my classmates whenever I want.
The Day Analog Died.
Brian Bridges
CLRN.org