da nang market insights q1 2015 - commercial real estate ... · da nang market insights – q1 2015...
TRANSCRIPT
DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS – Q1 2015 Presented by: Dung Duong, Associate Director
Tuesday, 31th March, 2015
2 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
7.8%
8.4% 8.2% 8.5%
6.3%
5.3%
6.8%
5.9%
5.0% 5.4%
6.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
Vietnam GDP Growth Rate
Quarterly
“ ANZ has revised its GDP
growth forecast for
Vietnam in 2015 and 2016
upwards, to 6.5% for both
years from the previous
6.2% and 6.4%,
respectively.
”
5.0% 5.3% 6.1%
7.0% 6.0%
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15
3 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vietnam among Top Fastest Growing Economies
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM ECONOMY
Breakdown of components of average annual real GDP growth (2014 – 2050)
Source: PwC Analysis.
4 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vietnam Retail Sales
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
36%
42%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015
Gro
wth
ra
te (
%)
Reta
il &
se
rvic
es t
urn
ove
r (V
ND
bill
ion
)
Retail and services turnover (VND billion) Growth rate (%)
Vietnam Car Sales
-30%
20%
70%
120%
170%
-
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015
Gro
wth
rate
(%
)
No. o
f ca
r
No. of cars selling % change YoY
Registration fee reduced from 10% -
20% to 10% - 15% in April.
Import duty on cars from ASEAN countries
will decrease from 50% to 0% by 2018.
Target credit growth
2M: 0.68%
2015: 13-15%
2014: 14%
5 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
FALLING OIL PRICE TRIGGERS TRADE DEFICIT?
Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart - Last Ten Years
Compares the movement in the dollar index (major trading partners) with gold and oil prices over the last ten
years. The three series are compared using standard deviation.
Source: Macrotrends.
+20% y-o-y vs. EUR
and Yen
US$1,172/oz
-27% y-o-y
US$45.33/barrel
-50% y-o-y
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Jun
-12
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Jun
-13
Se
p-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ma
r-14
Jun
-14
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
18,932
20,703 21,036
21,246 21,458
20,803
Vietnam Interbank Exchange Rate
Vietnam Trade Balance
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015
US
$ b
illio
n
Export
Import
6 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCY IN APAC
Exchange Rate
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2015.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lo
ca
l cu
rre
ncy p
er
US
D
JPY
INR
AUD
MYR
THB
SGD-TWD
PHP
VND
KRW-HKD
NZD
CNY
Vietnam Government Bond Yield Movement
7 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
BANK CUT RATES ON THE BACK OF LOW INFLATION
• Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises.
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam.
Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation
HSBC Bank has predicted that the central bank would mull another cut of
the open market operations (OMO) rate to beef up domestic demand and
growth thanks to low inflation this year.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inte
rest ra
te (
%)
Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate
Mortgage rate for the first 12 months:
Jan. 15 Mar. 15
• Techcombank 9.49% 7.99%
• Vietcombank 7.99% 7.5%
• ACB 8.90% 7.5%
8 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
REAL ESTATE FIRMS ON SHARP RISE
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
* All the above articles were retrieved in March 2015.
Restructuring banking system:
• Some large banks will have to merge
with smaller banks, while the central
bank will directly handle other
lenders.
1. Newly registered Real Estate companies +49% y-o-y;
2. Newly registered Art, Entertainment and Recreation
companies +49% y-o-y.
Novaland to go public end of 2015
19,000 newly registered 4% y-o-y
2,055 firms were resolved 9% y-o-y
16,175 suspended operation 14% y-o-y
4,376 resumed operation 20% y-o-y
9 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
DA NANG FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Slight decreased FDI to real estate
Accumulative FDI structure as of 2014
“ Real estate accounted for more
than 53.76% of the total new
capital in Da Nang in 2014, a
0.7% down y-o-y.
“ Ipc.danang.gov.com 56% 34%
5% 3% 2%
Vacation Real Estate
Manufacturing
Education
Construction
Accomodationservices, F&B
Nation No. of project Capital ($US) %
Korea 6 29,541,700 92.8%
Japan 3 2,146,816 6.7%
Italy 1 84,309 0.3%
UK 1 47,259 0.1%
Singapore 1 10,000 0.0%
USA 1 10,000 0.0%
New FDI Projects in 2015 (23/3/2015) 92.8% of the total FDI capital
invested in 2015 from Korea
Tri Dragon Ltd – Transportation
Lotte Viet Nam - Retail
Sun Kim Ltd – Real Estate
10 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
New Specialized Streets For Downtown Da Nang
DA NANG INFRASTRUCTURE
Breakfast Street – Huynh Thuc
Khang
Fashion Street – Le Duan
Seafood Street – Pham Van
Dong
Souvenirs and GiftsStreet –
Bach Dang +Nhu Nguyet Tourists Street – Bach Dang Fashion Street – Phan Chau
Trinh
Crafts Street – TS HS Non
Nuoc
Food Street – Pham Hong Thai
11 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
DA NANG INFRASTRUCTURE
2015 2018
The North-West Traffic axis No 1
The Hue T- Junction Flyover
Open for Rehearsal on March 24, 2015
Project New International Terminal at
Da Nang Airport
Highway Da Nang – Quang Ngai
Planned opening to traffic in 2016
Da Nang Port Phase 2
Estimated launch in 2018
The infrastructure development
of the city’s Hi-tech Park
12 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Q1 2015 Snapshot
OFFICE
OFFICE GRADE A GRADE B GRADE C TOTAL
Total supply (properties) 1 7 17 25
Total supply (NLA, sm) 6,314 50,273 35,844 92,431
New supply (properties) 0 0 0 0
New supply (GFA, sm) - - - -
Net absorption (NLA, sm) 0 1,096 640 1,736
Q-o-q change (%) 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%
Y-o-y change (%) 6.4% 57.6% 4.1% 29.9%
Vacancy rate (%) 3.7% 16.5% 32.4 21.8%
Q-o-q change (pp) 0.0 -2.2 -1.8 -1.9
Y-o-y change (pp) -5.8 -9.1 -2.7 -6.9
Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) 17.0 10.9 8.4 10.4
Q-o-q change (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Y-o-y change (%) -5.6% -7.1% -3.5% -4.5%
All rents are the average rent quoted on the NLA basis, exclusive of VAT and service charge
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
13 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
New Grade A and B Completions
OFFICE
New Supply by Year, Da Nang
VNPT BUILDING
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
THANH LAN BUILDING POST OFFICE BUILDING
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
Grade A Grade B Grade C
NL
A (
sm
)
Grade C
GFA: 1,800 sm
Grade C
GFA: 600 sm
Grade B
GFA: 14,450 sm
14 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vacancy Rate/Asking Rent
OFFICE
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
VACANCY RATE
(%)
Most buildings kept the same rent rate, the average asking rent in the reviewed quarter remained unchanged at
US$10.39 per sm, a decrease of 4.5% y-o-y.
The market-wide average vacancy rate decreased slightly in the review quarter, presenting a 6.9 percentage point y-
o-y decrease . While vacancy rate at Grade A stayed unchanged, both Grade B and Grade C continued to show
better absorption.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Grade A Grade B Grade C
$5
$7
$9
$11
$13
$15
$17
$19
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Grade A Grade B Grade C
15 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Grade C Grade B Grade A
NLA
(sm
)
Very Restricted New Supply -> Limited Leasing Options
OFFICE
Net absorption per
quarter 4-year average
Net Absorption, Q1 2015
The main sources of demand in the market still come from the software, technology, construction
and tourism industries. .
• The average office space in Da Nang is around 100sm to 150sm except for software and IT
companies which often acquire 500sm to 1,000sm.
16 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply
OFFICE
VIETTINBANK
Hai Chau District
GFA: 27,611 sm
Owner occupied: 18%
Estimated
completion: Q3/2015
SCB BANK TOWER
Hai Chau District
GFA: 30,207 sm
Estimated completion:
2017
BẠCH ĐẰNG HOTEL
COMPLEX Hai Chau District
GFA: 32,500 sm
Estimated completion: 2017
(office building)
JAN 2015 DEC 2017
17 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
OFFICE
The market average rent is expected to remain
stable until the new project comes online
Limited new supply as most projects are either
delayed or have stopped construction.
These projects developed partly for owner-
occupation
Vacancy rate will decrease slowly until new
project comes online.
Expansion and new entrants are anticipated to
drive office market in 2015.
Active sectors : IT/Technology, financial and
banking, tourist services
18 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Q1 2015 Snapshot
RETAIL
(*) Stand-alone department store, excluding Robins department store, which is the anchor tenant of Crescent Mall.
(**) A subcategory of Shopping/Retail Centre, normally retail space in the podium of office, hotel or residential towers
All rents are asking rents of the ground and first floor (US$/sm/month), exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
RETAIL SHOPPING CENTER RETAIL PODIUM TOTAL
Total supply (properties) 6 1 7
Total supply (NLA, sm) 35,901 6,257 42,158
New supply (properties) 1 0 1
New supply (GFA, sm) 10,000 - 10,000
Average asking rent (US$ psm per month) $20.30 $13.00
Q-o-q change (%) 0.0% 0.0%
Y-o-y change (%) 4.6% -0.0%
Average vacancy rate (%) 17.8 60.7%
Q-o-q change (pp) 7.2 ppt 0.0 ppt
Y-o-y change (pp) -11 ppt 0.0 ppt
19 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
New Supply
RETAIL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
Parkson Shopping center
Location: 255-257 Hung Vuong street
GFA: 10,000 sm
20 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Performance
RETAIL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
VACANCY RATE
(%)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Shopping Centre Retail lobby/ podium
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Shopping Centre Retail lobby/ podium
The average asking rent of shopping centre was unchanged q-o-q and increase 4.6% y-o-y.
It is notable that the vacancy rate at most of the shopping centers went up considerably in this quarter. The
average vacancy rate in this quarter showed a 7.2 pps up q-o-q versus 11 pps down y-o-y .
21 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply – under construction
RETAIL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
Vincom Ngo Quyen shopping center
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 30,000 sm
• Under construction
22 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply
RETAIL
Bach Dang Hotel Complex
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 5,000 sm
• Construction resumed
• Expected completion: 2016 (hotel
tower)
D'Evelyn Tower
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 4,000 sm
• Under planning
Golden Square
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 18,500 sm
• Pending construction
Thien Thanh Plaza
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 21,914 sm
• Under planning
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
Bach Dang Hotel Complex
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 3,500 sm
• Under construction
Blooming Tower
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 11,479sm
• Under construction
Diamond Tower
• Hai Chau District
• GFA: 4,842 sm
• Under planning
23 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
And Foreign Retailers Too!
RETAIL
Expanded to Dong Nai and Da Nang
Opened Lotte Mart Binh Duong and Phan Thiet
• Bought Pico
• Opened Lotte Department Store in Hanoi
2008
2012
2013
2014 2020
To open
60 super-
markets
in
Vietnam
Ministop Trung Nguyen (25% share)
Aeon Mall HCMC
Aeon Mall Binh Duong
Aeon Mall Hanoi
20 hypermarkets
2011
1/ 2014
11/ 2014
2015
2020
Already successfully partnered with Fivimart
and Citimart
Opened first store in HCMC
24 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
100% Foreign Invested Retailers Permitted from 2015
RETAIL
Joint venture, foreign investors
to own up to 50% of charter
capital
Enterprises with 100% foreign capital in 110/155 sub-sectors: Wholesale, Retail,
Commission agent, Multi-Level Marketing, Franchising
But the Economic Needs Test (ENT) is still a technical barrier to trade: it requires foreign retailers to pass the test if they
want to establish more than one retail outlet in Vietnam, unless some of the requirements are met
Impact
Not a significant change in short-term since foreign retailer have already joined the
market for a while:
Domestic retailers are still protected thanks to the “final barrier” – ENT, but NOT
applied for small size convenience store chains (<500sqm)
After Jan 11, 2015 Jan 11, 2010 – Jan 11,
2015
25 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
RETAIL
Average asking rents at most projects are
expected to stay unchanged.
Excepted for Vincom Ngo Quyen, most of future
projects show slow or delay construction activity
The market will welcome more both local and
international when Vincom Ngo Quyen comes
online.
the new international passenger terminal at Da
Nang International Airport in the future which will
be the advantage for the city in order to welcome
more tourists.
26 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Market Snapshot
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
5-STAR 4-STAR 3-STAR 3-5 STAR
Total supply (hotels) 12 11 56 79
Total supply (room) 2,595 1,856 3,816 8,267
New launch (hotel) 0 0 5 5
New launch (room) 10 0 313 323
Average daily rate (US/room/night) $154.78 $55.95
Q-o-q change (%) 1.6% 3.6%
Y-o-y change (%) 2.5% -0.9%
Average occupancy rate (%) 59.1% 47.7%
Q-o-q change (ppt) 8.3 3.8%
Y-o-y change (ppt) 11.0% -8.0%
RevPar (US$/room/night) $99.27 25.52
Q-o-q change (ppt) 20.8% 10.2%
Y-o-y change (ppt) 12.4% 11.3%
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
27 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Limited New Openings
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q120155 star 4 star 3 star
Total supply by Grade & Year (rooms)
Total Supply by Grade & Location (rooms)
323 new rooms mostly from 3-star hotels.
32% of total supply are 5-star properties, of
which most hotels located on the beach.
New developments spreads forwards the
seaside make beach-front hotel supply is
equal city one.
25%
7%
5% 17%
20%
26%
5 star-beachfront 5 star-city hotel
4 star-beachfront 4 star-city hotel
3 star-beachfront 3 star-city hotel
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q12015
Beachfront City Hotel
Total supply by Year & Location (rooms)
28 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
New Supply
HOTEL
White House - 3-star
52 rooms
Nhu Minh 2 - 3-star
56 rooms Academy - 3-star
50 rooms
Samdi- 3-star
100 rooms
Tay Bac - 3-star
55 rooms
29 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Performance
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5 star - Beachfront 5 star - City Hotel 4 star - Beachfront 4 star - City Hotel
US
$/r
oo
m/n
igh
t
Average Room Rate (US$/night/room)
30 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Performance
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
Average Occupancy rate (%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5 star - Beachfront 5 star - City Hotel 4 star - Beachfront 4 star - City Hotel
31 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Performance
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
$0
$30
$60
$90
$120
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5 star - Beachfront 5 star - City Hotel 4 star - Beachfront 4 star - City Hotel
US
$/r
oo
m/n
igh
Average Revenue per Available Room – RevPar (US$/room/night)
Improvements in ADR and OCC partly due to long Tet holiday made the RevPar up by 10.2 %
and 11.3 % for 5 and 4-star segment, respectively.
Noticeable y-o-y increase in the RevPar of 5-star city properties (66%) and 4-star beachfront
hotels (28%) caused by high ADR at Novotel Premier Han River and at Ala Carte.
32 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
20
12
20
13
20
14
8,267 rooms
10,423
rooms
11,390
rooms
13,404
rooms
YTD
2015
2015
2016
2017
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2015f
2016f
2017f
5 star
4 star
3 star
Future Supply by Grade & Year
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Beachfront
City hotel
3 star
4 star
5 star
Total Future Supply 2015 -2017 (under-construction)
About 1,300 rooms to open in Q2 to
capture guests on DIFC event, of which
90% are 3 & 4-star
Market is expected to have totally 13,404
keys till 2017.
Future supply is dominated by beach-front
developments.
33 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Domestic arrivals International arrivals
No Nationality 2014 Compared
to 2013
1 Chinese 152,359 +44%
2 Korean 107,008 +93%
3 Japan 52,671 +28%
4 American 21,440 +29%
5 Australian 17.471 +39%
Da Nang Q1 2015
Y-o-y change:
↑ 17% in total arrivals
↑ 19% in International sector
↑ 15% in domestic sector
Q2 is expected a dramatically increase in
domestic arrivals thanks to DIFC event and
summer holidays
TOP FIVE GUEST NATIONALITY
North Asian Visitors strongly improved
Chinese visitors continued leading
the top 5 guest nationality.
Significant improvement in Korean tourists
in 2014, n up by 93% compared to
those of 2013. Nguồn cung tương lai theo phân khúc & năm
(phòng)
34 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
More flights, more new routes
HOTEL
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
20 out of 29 international routes are from China.
8 more charter routes from China opened in Q1
Incheon – Da Nang routes operated by Vietnam Airlines and Asiana Airlines increased to 6 and 4
flights per week, respectively.
New routes to open:
Hong Kong – Da Nang operated by Hong Kong Express
Bussan – Da Nang served by Bussan Air
0
20
40
60
80
100
Asi
ana A
ir
Chin
a E
ast
ern
Chin
a S
outh
ern
Kore
an A
ir
Silk A
ir
Vie
tnam
Airline
Dra
gon A
ir
Maca
u A
ir
Shangdong A
ir
Asi
ana A
ir
Chin
a E
ast
ern
Chin
a S
outh
ern
Kore
an A
ir
Silk A
ir
Vie
tnam
Airline
Dra
gon A
ir
Maca
u A
ir
Shangdong A
ir
Asi
ana A
ir
Chin
a E
ast
ern
Chin
a S
outh
ern
Kore
an A
ir
Silk A
ir
Vie
tnam
Airline
Dra
gon A
ir
Maca
u A
ir
Shangdong A
ir
1-25/3/2014 Q4 2014 1- 25/3/2015
472 flights 485 flights 546 flights
35 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
HOTEL
A large number of new supply to launch in Q2
would take effect on hotel performance.
64% of future projects show good construction
progress, promising 3,300 new keys to open till
2017.
In Q2, increasing promotions for domestic
arrivals and new openings would reduce room
rate slightly.
Fusion Suites, 4-star condotel managed by Fusion, to come
in Q2
Accor will expand their market share with Ibis and Mercury
brand at French Village (BaNa Hills mountain resort).
36 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Q1 2015 Snapshot
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END AFFORDABLE TOTAL
Total launched supply (projects) 3 6 5 4 18
Total launched supply (units) 317 1,277 1,382 500 3,476
New launch (projects)* 0 0 0 1 2
New launch (units)* 0 0 0 64 64
Average Primary Prices (US$ psm) $2,949 $1,696 $798 $716
Q-o-q change (%) 0.0% 2.2% 9.3%% 3.2%
Y-o-y change (%) -2.6% 3.7% 9.3% 2.4%
Sold rate (%) 92.1% 53% 59.6% 51.2%
Q-o-q change (ppt) 0.9 0.9 2.6 -5.9
Y-o-y change (ppt) 7.3 3.5 9.4 0.7
All prices are quoted exclusive of VAT and service charges.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
37 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Limitted New launches
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD2015
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
New launches increased gradually since 2H2012 across
segments showed reserved attitude of developers on the
market.
Mid-end Segment account the largest proportion (40%).
Affordable supply down due to reposition of F-home.
0
800
1,600
2,400
3,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD2015
Accumulated Supply New Supply
Nu
mb
er
of u
nits
New launch
in quarter
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
The Monarchy
• Developed by DHI
• Location: Son Tra
District
• 64 units
F-home
• Developed by Dana
Food JSC
• Location: Hai Chau
District
• 280 units
38 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Asking price down and promotions increased
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Average Asking price
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
The average asking price of luxury segment showed no change while others represented q-o-q
improvements caused by price adjustments at few projects and new supply.
Mid-end segment showed the highest increase (9.3% q-o-q). Followed by affordable properties
(3.2% q-o-q) and high-end developments (2.2% q-o-q)
Developers reduced asking prices along with increased discount and promotion to boost sale.
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
US
$/m
2
39 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Mid-end developments dominated sales
Sale Volume by Year and Segment
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2014.
Sale volume almost doubled compared to Q1 2014.
Affordable units dominated the total sold units 58% due to :
Great location in the CBD
Reasonable selling price .
22% of transactions were from Azura and Fusion Suites which had most active sale strategy
(discount, the guaranteed rental yield, etc)
0
60
120
180
240
300
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Units
40 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Projects recorded successful transactions
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
12 View
Harmony Tower
• 124 units
• Price:
• Sold rate: 28%
Da Nang Lakeside
• 486 units
• Price: ~US$590/m2
• Sold rate:82%
Lapaz Tower
• 106units
• Price: ~US$670/m2
• Sold rate: 70%
Azura
• 225 units
• Price: ~ US$1,500/m2
• Sold rate: 67% Fusion Suites
• 129 units
• Price: ~US$2,100/m2
• Sold rate: 50%
Hyatt Regency
• 183 units
• Price: ~ US$3,400 /m2
• Sold rate: 95%
The Monarchy
• 64 units
• Price:
• Sold rate: 3%
41 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Deverlopers actively adjused selling price and
improved promotions to encourage sale.
Well-planed housing projects, which are partly
converted to commercial, priced between
USD20,000 – USD30,000 draw young local buyers
attentions
Sales volumes are expected to improve as the
market has seen the return of not only Vietnamese
buyers but also overseas Vietnameses and foreigner
investors.
Local developers started research the market for their
future developments
42 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Market Snapshot
SECOND HOME VILLAS
MARKET
Total launched supply (projects) 13
Total launched supply (units) 713
New launch (projects)* 0
Average Sold rate (%) 48.2%
Q-o-q change (ppt) 0.3 ppt
Y-o-y change (ppt) 2.8 ppt
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
43 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Launched supply
SECOND HOME VILLAS
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Launched unit
N
um
be
r o
f u
nits
New projects to
be launched in Q2
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
44 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
To be launched in next quarter
SECOND HOME VILLAS
Vinpearl Villas Ngu Hanh Son THE POINTS – PHASE 2
Ngu Hanh Son District
VinaCapital
20 units
Land area: 260-300 sm/unit
Price: USD280,000 – USD330,000 per unit
Estimated completion: 2016
Ngu Hanh Son District
VinGroup
134 units
Land area: 300-700 sm/unit
Price: USD600,000 – USD700,000 per unit
Estimated completion: 2016
JAN 2015 DEC 2016
45 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Performance – transactions occurred at specific projects
SECOND HOME VILLAS
Average Sold Rate by Quarter (%)
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
A
ve
rage
so
ld r
ate
(%
)
Sales volume by Quarter (units)
0
4
8
12
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015
N
o o
f so
ld u
nits
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
46 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Performance – transactions occurred at specific projects
SECOND HOME VILLAS
“ No price adjustments have seen in quarter.
Transactions appeared at Hyatt Regency and The Point while others witnessed quietness in
sale activity, except for sold-out projects.
The Point – phase 2, will be launched in April but already recorded sold rate of 25% in Q1 ”
Performance – transactions occurred at specific projects
Price psm Project
0.0%
40.0%
80.0%
120.0%
1,000
3,000
5,000
Ola
lan
i
Hyatt
Rege
ncy
Ocea
n V
illas
Fura
ma
Poo
l V
illa
s
Vin
pe
arl
Luxu
ry V
illa
s
Sun
vill
as
The D
un
e
Norm
an
Esta
te
Mo
ngo
me
rie
links
Me
cu
re S
on
Tra
Price Q1 2015 Sold rate Q1 2015
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
47 CBRE | DA NANG MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
SECOND HOME VILLAS
Average prices remain unchanged and offering
incentives is the main strategy
Limited new supply priced between US$300,000 –
US$700,000 per unit to launch in Q2.
New regulations is expected to take effect on
market sentiments that help to improve
transaction gradually in 2H2015.
The market would see the return of overseas
Vietnamese and foreign investors.
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