dafne in a nutshell - wur · 2018-11-27 · dafne -decision-analytic framework to explore the...
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www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY
WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
Funded under the H2020 Framework
Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268
DAFNE in a nutshell
Prof. Dr. Jasminko Novak
EIPCM Berlin / HOST Stralsund
What is the DAFNE project about
Models & tools for the analysis of the WEF Nexus for policy making
• Develop a quantitative analytic
framework & stakeholder tools
for exploration of trade-offs
among planning and
management options in IWRM
• Support basin policy making in
the context of competing use of
water by the energy, agriculture
and environment sectors
• Participatory approach (PIP)
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DAFNE - Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food NExus in complex
and transboundary water resources systems of fast growing developing countries
• Research and Innovation Action funded by EU Horizon 2020
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Two transboundary pilot case studies
Zambezi
• ~2,700 km, ~1.39 million km2
• longest east flowing river in Africa
• 8 riparian states (Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania).
WEF issues• resource availability vs. population
density• expansion of irrigated agriculture• additional hydropower schemes• ecosystem conservation and
expanding tourism.
• ~760 km (Omo), ~130,000 km2
• Source in northern Highlands with annual
precipitation > 1500 mm
• 2 riparian states (Ethiopia and Kenya)
• outflow into Lake Turkana (endorheic)
• 80-90 % of annual inflow into Lake Turkana
comes from Omo
WEF issues
• Gibe I-II-III operational, Koysha planned +
large-scale irrigation schemes for commercial
sugar cane production
• competing water withdrawal
• effects on Lake Turkana water level variability
• environmental and cultural conservation
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Two transboundary pilot case studies
Omo-Turkana
Participatory Integrated Planning (PIP) The DAFNE approach
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VNL (virtualnegotiationlab)–WP6
Inthevirtualnegotiationlabthestakeholder/DMscomparativelyassessthepathwayprovidedbyWP5andnegotiatetoextractseveralinteresting
largelyagreeduponalternatives.
DAF(decisionanalyticframework)–WP5
Robustpathways(sequencesofactions)areselectedviasimulation-basedoptimizationoftheintegratedmodelbuiltinWP3fordifferentalternativecombinations/timingofplanningactionssuggestedbyWP3andWP4undercurrentandfutureclimaticandsocio-technologicalscenarios(WP3).PathwayareassessedbasedonthemultipleindicatorsidentifiedinWP2.
TheDAFprovides:
• Setofinterestingalternativepathwaysforeachscenariosconsidered.
• Asetofrobustalternativesacrossallthescenarios.
INDICATORS –WP2
• EvaluationIndicatorsrepresentingthedifferentstakeholdergroupsareidentifiedsectorbysectorincollaborationwiththestakeholdersandthedecisionmakers.
• AdditionalhighlevelindicatorscanbeformulatedinWP3tocapturegovernance,economicandlegalaspectofgeneralinterest.
MODELS–WP3/WP4
• Modelsofthenaturalprocessesaresetupandvalidated
• Modelsofthesocio-economicprocessesaresetupandvalidated
• Themodelofthedifferentcomponentsarecombinedintoanintegratedmodel
ACTIONSandSCENARIOS– WP2
• Currentbaseline andfuture scenarios ofthemaindrivers(boundaries)ofthesystemare
built.
• Planning andmanagement actions,including
infrastructural,normativeandoperationalinterventionareidentified(theactionwillbecombinedintopathways:temporalsequenceofsetofactions)
SetoffeasibleactionsTrajectoriesofkeyvariables(e.g.reservoirstorages,watersupply,
agriculturalproduction,…)
Pathwaysandevaluationindicators
Candidatepathways
MONITORING–WP2
• Historicaldataacquisition
• Largescaleremotesensingandlocalscale
UnmannedAerialVehiclesurveys
• Groundtruthbyfieldwork
• Socio-economicsurveys
STAKEH
OLD
ERSIN
VOLVEM
ENT
STAKEH
OLD
ERSIN
VOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEMENT
FEEDBACK
MONITORINGACTIONS
and
SCENARIO
S
INDICATORS
MODELS
DAF
NSL
STAKEHOLDER
INVOLVEMENT
Decision-Analytic Framework (DAF) A central outcome of the project
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The DAF is a quantitative assessment tool to:
• facilitate understanding of the impact of alternative planning options on the broad range of heterogeneous and often competing interests
• support comparative analysis of alternative pathways
Negotiation Simulation LabInvolving the stakeholders & facilitating the nexus analysis
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Supporting stakeholder analysis of water – energy – food issues through:
• Identifying, comparing and discussing trade-offs in the water-energy-food nexus
• In face-to-face meetings• Online analysis and discussion
• Tools supporting mapping & modelling of issues, indicators and actions
• Visualization, exploration and management of solution alternatives
www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
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More in Session 4
Session 4: The Nexus in Transboundary Systems in Developing Countries
DAFNE projectpresentation
Phoebe Koundouri, ICRE8/Athens University of Economics & Business/SDSN Greece
Discussion Panel:
PanagiotisBalabanis
European Commission, DG RTD, Dir. I Climate action & resource efficiency, Unit 2 Eco-innovation, Deputy Head of Unit,
Claudia Ringler International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Deputy Director of Environment and Production Technology Division
KidanemariamJembere Tiruneh
GWP Southern Africa, Technical Advisor for Water, Climate and Development Programme (WACDEP)
Jennifer Braun Advisor, Sustainable Energy for Food - Powering Agriculture, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)
Moderator: Jasminko Novak European Institute for Participatory Media, Berlin / HOST
Stralsund
Reserve slides
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