DAILY I FOREX REPORT 10

TH

APRIL 2013

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A Surprising Rise in Industrial Production Fuels Hopes for UK Q1 Expansion

EUR/USD Scalps Target March Gap- Bullish Above 1.2890

US Dollar Sold as Fed Chairman Bernanke Talks Down Asset Sales

The US Dollar declined against all of its major counterparts after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said asset sales are expected happen “late” into the monetary policy tightening process. The central bank chief added that the Fed preferred to use the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) as its principal tool for unwinding stimulus when the time to do so is at hand.

However, that approach has been painted as a less-impactful tightening technique by some skeptics including the Fed’s own Charles Plosser, President of the Philadelphia branch. It appears the markets opted to agree, interpreting Bernanke’s comments to mean that the greenback will find policy support slow to emerge even when the Fed eventually begins to reverse its accommodative posture.

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3070 tgs

1.3090/1.3110sl 1.3040

BUY USDJPY ABOVE

99.50 tgt 99.70/99.90

SL 99.20

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5325 Tgt

1.5345/1.5365 SL

1.5295

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3029

HIGH: 1.3068

LOW: 1.3005

CLOSE: 1.3042

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND : BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 99.33

HIGH: 99.50

LOW: 98.70

CLOSE: 98.91

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD => -0.07( BULLIISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5263

HIGH: 1.5325

LOW: 1.5250

CLOSE: 1.5307

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8536

HIGH: 0.8560

LOW: 0.8507

CLOSE: 0.8520

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.7400

HIGH: 82.7430

LOW: 82.4710

CLOSE: 82.5620

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Apr 7

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.4%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAR)

Low -45

-44

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAR)

Medium 39.0

45.6

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (FEB)

Low ¥457.5B ¥637.4B -¥364.8B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (FEB)

Low -¥0.1B -¥62.0B ¥364.6B

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (FEB)

Medium -¥667.0B -¥660.1B -¥1479.3B

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (FEB)

Low -47% -59.1% -19.9%

Mon

Apr 8

USD International Economic Forum

Low

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)

Low -1.5%

3.0%

04:30

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)

Medium -20.0%

-11.8%

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)

Medium 57.3

53.2

05:00

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)

Medium 57.5

57.7

06:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (MAR)

Low A$48.7B

A$43.7B

07:15

CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (4Q)

Medium 1.7%

2.5%

08:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (APR)

Medium -17.3 -12.8 -10.6

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.5% 0.3% -0.6%%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and

Medium -1.8% -0.9% -2.6%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

12:30

USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on the Economy in West Palm Beach, FL

Low

14:30

CAD Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey (1Q)

Medium

-3.4

14:30

CAD Business Outlook Future Sales (1Q)

Medium

15.00 16.00

23:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (MAR)

Low

1.0% 2.7%

23:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAR)

Medium

-5% -6%

23:15

USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Atlanta Fed Conference in Georgia

Medium

Tue

Apr 9 00:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (MAR)

Low

6.3%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Conditions (MAR)

Low

-3

01:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR)

Medium

1

01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

High

2.5% 3.2%

01:30

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-1.8% -1.6%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (MAR)

Medium

3.3% 3.4%

05:45

CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR)

Medium

3.1% 3.1%

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (FEB)

Medium

15.0B 13.7B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (FEB)

Low

14.2B 11.3B

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.1% 3.3%

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.3% 1.3%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR P)

Medium

-21.5%

06:30

EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (MAR)

Low

95 96

06:45

EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (FEB)

Low

-5445M -5862M

06:45

EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (FEB)

Low

-12.8B

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.3% 0.3%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-0.5% -0.3%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.3%

07:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

0.1%

07:15

CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

2.5% 1.9%

08:00

EUR Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.1%

08:00

EUR Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (FEB)

Low

1.7%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.4% -1.2%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-2.8% -2.9%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.4% -1.5%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.4% -3.0%

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (FEB)

Medium

-£8600 -£8195

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (FEB)

Low

-£3650 -£3280

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (FEB)

Low

-£2800 -£2362

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (MAR)

Low

90.5 90.8

12:15

CAD Housing Starts (MAR)

Medium

175.0K 178.0K

12:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)

Low

3.0% 1.7%

13:30

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Richmond (FEB)

Low

14:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (FEB)

Low

1.2%

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (MAR)

Medium

-0.1%

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (FEB)

Low

3730 3693

14:00

USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.5% -0.8%

17:00

USD Fed's Lockhart to Give Welcome at Stone Mountain, Georgia

Low

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.3% 0.8%

22:45

NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.8%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (MAR)

Low

1.9%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.5%

Wed Apr 10

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (MAR)

Medium

$15.25B

CNY Exports (YoY) (MAR)

Low

21.8%

CNY Imports (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-15.2%

CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MAR)

Medium

$3310.0B

CNY New Yuan Loans (MAR)

High

620.0B

CNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (MAR)

Low

17.2%

CNY Money Supply - M1 (YoY) (MAR)

Low

9.5%

CNY Money Supply - M2 (YoY) (MAR)

Low

15.2%

CNY Aggregate Financing (MAR)

Medium

1070.0B

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR)

Medium

2.0%

00:30

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

Low

110.5

06:45

EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-1.2%

06:45

EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-3.5%

06:45

EUR French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-1.4%

06:45

EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-4.5%

08:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.8%

08:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-3.6%

08:00

EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-0.6%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 5)

Low

12:20

USD Fed's Lockhart to Speak on Financial Stability at Conference

Low

12:30

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Moderates a Panel in Stone Mountain, GA

Low

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 5)

Low

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (APR 5)

Low

439K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 5)

Low

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 5)

Low

18:00

USD Monthly Budget Statement (MAR)

Medium

18:00

USD Fed Releases Minutes from Mar 19-20 FOMC Meeting

High

21:00

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy in El Paso TX

Low

22:00

NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic (MAR)

Low

0

22:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

Medium

56.3

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (MAR)

Low

2.9%

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAR)

Low

2.4%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.4%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-0.1%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (APR 5)

Low

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (APR 5)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (APR 5)

Low

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (APR 5)

Low

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-13.1%

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-9.7%

Thu Apr 11

01:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (APR)

Medium

2.3%

01:30

AUD Employment Change (MAR)

High

71.5K

01:30

AUD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

5.4%

01:30

AUD Full Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

17.8K

01:30

AUD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

53.7K

01:30

AUD Participation Rate (MAR)

Low

65.3%

02:00

JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (MAR)

Low

8.57

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR F)

Medium

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR F)

High

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR F)

Medium

06:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR F)

High

06:45

EUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3%

06:45

EUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.2%

06:45

EUR French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3%

06:45

EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.0%

06:45

EUR French Consumer Price Index Ex Tobacco Index (MAR)

Low

124.72

10:00

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Hong Kong

Low

12:30

USD Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

1.1%

12:30

USD Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-0.3%

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.1%

12:30

CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

2.2%

12:30

USD Fed's Bullard Gives Welcoming Remarks in Washington

Low

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 6)

Medium

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 30)

Low

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (APR 5)

Low

22:45

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.3%

23:50

JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-1.1%

Fri

Apr 12 01:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (FEB)

Low

$A48.7B

01:30

AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (FEB)

Low

$A19.8B

03:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAR)

Low

66.7%

06:45

EUR French Current Account (euros) (FEB)

Low

-5.0B

08:00

EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR F)

Low

08:30

EUR Italian General Government Debt (FEB)

Medium

2022.7B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.4%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.3%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.7%

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR)

High

1.1%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (MAR)

Medium

1.0%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

1.7%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (MAR)

Medium

0.4%

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR)

High

1.7%

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (MAR)

Low

0.4%

12:45

USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Boston

Low

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (APR P)

High

14:00

USD Business Inventories (FEB)

Medium

1.0%

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