daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 13 may 2013
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Dollar Charges Higher - Will EUR/USD Break 1.3000, AUD/USD 1.0000?
Dollar Surge is Only the Beginning
Forex Trading Weekly Forecast 05.10.2013
US Dollar Forecast - Dollar Surge is Only the Beginning
The US Dollar finally showed signs of life and surged against major forex counterparts even as the S&P 500 finished at record-peaks. The safe-haven USD may rally further as a sharp gains in FX volatility prices suggest the Dollar breakdout is the “real deal”.
Euro Forecast - Euro Crisis Complacency May Collapse with 1Q GDP Data
Though EURUSD took a tumble this past week – largely on the incredible strength of the US dollar – the Euro individually performed well through the period. That vigor may not hold next week though ...
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.2995 TGT 1.3015/1.3035
SL 1.2965
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 101.75
TGT 101.95/102.15 SL
101.45
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5370 TGT 1.5390/1.5410
SL 1.5340
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2984 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.2994 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.2981 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.2988 MACD =>-.0025(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 39.6638(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 101.59 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 101.71 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 101.54 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 101.63 MACD =>.40(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5359 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.5368 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.5358 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.5358 MACD =>-.0032(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 32(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8454 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 00.8456 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8449 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8454 MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 57(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 83.1420 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 83.1660 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 83.0940 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 83.1060 MACD =>.1756(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 52(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun May 5
13:30
USD Fed's Pianalto Gives Commencement Speech in Ohio
Low
Mon
May 6 00:23
CNY Leading Index (MAR)
Medium 99.38
99.98
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)
Medium 2.1%
2.1%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.3%
0.2%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (1Q)
Medium 2.2% 1.7% 0.1%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Medium -0.4% 0.1% 1.3%
01:30
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR)
Low -1.3%
-0.4%
01:45
CNY HSBC Services PMI (APR)
Medium 51.1
54.3
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR)
Low 47.0 45.9 45.5
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)
Low 44.3 44.1 44.1
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)
Medium 49.6 49.2 49.2
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR F)
Medium 46.9 46.6 46.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR F)
Medium 47.0 46.6 46.6
08:30
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)
Medium -15.6 -15.2 -17.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)
Medium -2.4% -2.2% -1.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
09:00
EUR German FinMin Schaeuble Speaks on European Integration
Low
12:30
CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
1.0% 1.7%
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (APR)
Medium
58.0 61.6
22:45
NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
1.0% -0.4%
22:45
NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.5% 0.6%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
22:45
NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
0.5% 0.5%
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.4%
23:01
GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (APR)
Low
-45
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (APR)
Medium
39
Tue
May 7 01:30
AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
1.8% 1.6%
01:30
AUD House Price Index (YoY) (1Q)
Medium
4.0% 2.1%
01:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (MAR)
Medium
0M -178M
04:30
LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 7)
High
3.00% 3.00%
05:45
CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (APR)
Medium
-2 -6
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate (APR)
Medium
3.1% 3.2%
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)
Medium
3.1% 3.1%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (APR)
Low
A$48.7B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (APR)
Low
435.0B 438.3B
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-2.9% 0.0%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-0.5% 2.3%
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAY)
Low
47.3 46.2
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAR)
Low
3925
19:00
USD Consumer Credit (MAR)
Medium
$16.000B $18.139B
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.9% 1.9%
Wed May 8
04:00
CNY Trade Balance (USD) (APR)
Medium
$15.50B -$0.88B
04:00
CNY Exports (YoY) (APR)
Low
10.0% 10.0%
04:00
CNY Imports (YoY) (APR)
Low
13.0% 14.1%
04:00
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (APR)
Low
1.6% 1.1%
04:00
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2% 0.2%
04:00
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (APR)
Low
5.9%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-0.3%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-0.5% -0.6%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.5%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-3.8% -1.8%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
-0.1% 0.5%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 3)
Low
1.8%
12:15
CAD Housing Starts (APR)
Medium
175.0K 184.0K
12:30
USD Fed's Stein Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
Low
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 3)
Low
-1382K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 3)
Low
6696K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 3)
Low
474K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 3)
Low
-1818K
22:45
NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q)
High
6.8% 6.9%
22:45
NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
1.0% -1.0%
22:45
NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)
Medium
-0.7% -1.4%
22:45
NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
67.9% 67.2%
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)
Low
$1254.4B
Thu
May 9 00:00
NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
6.5%
01:30
LIVE
AUD Employment Change (APR)
High
11.0K -36.1K
01:30
LIVE
AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)
High
5.6% 5.6%
01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.3% 2.1%
01:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)
Medium
-7.4K
01:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-2.3% -1.9%
01:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR)
Low
-28.7K
01:30
AUD Participation Rate (APR)
Low
65.1% 65.1%
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)
Low
8.56%
05:00
JPY Leading Index (MAR P)
Medium
97.7 97.6
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (MAR P)
Low
93.2 92.4
08:00
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
High
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-1.6% -2.2%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-2.0% -1.4%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.2% 1.0%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.3% 0.8%
11:00
GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY)
High
375B 375B
11:00
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9)
High
0.50% 0.50%
12:00
USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York
Low
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
2.1% 2.1%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4)
Medium
335K 324K
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)
Low
3018K 3019K
14:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)
High
0.10%
14:00
USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR)
Medium
0.4% -0.3%
14:00
USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 1.7%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3)
Low
43
17:15
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York
Low
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.5% -0.5%
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)
Medium
-1.2%
23:50
JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR)
Medium
23:50
JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)
Medium
-¥274.0B -¥677.0B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)
Low
¥480.4B -¥0.1B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR)
Low
1.9%
23:50
JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAR)
Low
-5.7% -47.0%
23:50
JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)
Low
¥1216.3B ¥637.4B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 3)
Low
Fri
May 10
GBP G7 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs, Meet in UK
High
04:00
CNY New Yuan Loans (APR)
High
767.5B 1060.0B
04:00
CNY Aggregate Financing (APR)
Low
1480.0B 2544.3B
04:00
CNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (APR)
Low
12.0% 12.4%
04:00
CNY Money Supply - M1 (YoY) (APR)
Low
11.3% 11.9%
04:00
CNY Money Supply - M2 (YoY) (APR)
Low
15.5% 15.7%
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR)
Medium
-20.0%
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)
Medium
57.5
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR)
Low
57.3
06:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)
Medium
17.5B 16.8B
06:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAR)
Low
19.5B 16.0B
06:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.5% -1.5%
06:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low
1.5% -3.9%
08:30
GBP Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-6.6% -7.0%
08:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)
Medium
-£9000 -£9416
08:30
GBP Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)
Low
15.0% 5.5%
08:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAR)
Low
-£3100 -£3642
08:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAR)
Low
-£4000 -£4276
12:25
USD Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
Low
12:30
LIVE
CAD Net Change in Employment (APR)
High
15.0K -54.5K
12:30
LIVE
CAD Unemployment Rate (APR)
High
7.20% 7.20%
12:30
Full Time Employment Change (APR)
Medium
-54.0K
12:30
Part Time Employment Change (APR)
Low
-0.4K
12:30
Participation Rate (APR)
Low
66.7 66.6
13:30
Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
Medium
18:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR)
Medium
$106.0B
18:00
Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Wyoming
Low
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