Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015

1

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Optimistic exports outlook

Expect the SET to trade up today, as local and global factors

align to provide the country considerably improved exports

outlook. Locally, the MOC’s expressed commitment to

boosting exports, corrective measures for the aviation

industry, both lend cause to optimism. Globally, the increased

liquity from China, optimism on Wall Street regarding 1Q15

earnings, and the strengthening greenback, all provide

upwards momentum for the local bourse.

Pick of the day: TTCL (Bt36.75; NR; Bloomberg

15TP Bt40.03) TTCL’s earnings prospects over the coming years are very

bright especially after the company and its subsidiary have

signed a memorandum of agreement with Myanmar’s

government for the development and operations of a 1280-

MW coal-fired power plant, with total project cost of US$2.8bn

(Bt91.0bn). TTCL will enjoy revenues of around US$1.5bn

from the EPC work of the project in the next 4-6 years and, as

the project operator, it will also obtain stable cash flows for a

30-year concession period. There are two other new key

construction projects on progress this year: 1) Bt3.2bn Co-

Generation Power Plant SSP and 2) Bt7.3bn Seawater

Reverse Osmosis in Qatar. Apart from these 3 new projects,

TTCL’s backlog on hand at present totals Bt34.5bn, half of

which is expected to be recognized as revenue this year.

According to Bloomberg earnings consensus, excluding the

coal-fired power plant mentioned above, TTCL’s earnings

growth this year is expected to be a robust 75% YoY. At

present, TTCL’s price pattern has clearly entered into an

uptrend after the share price breaking the Bt35.50 level. TTCL

is likely to break Bt39.25 before testing an important target at

Bt43. (Resistance: 38.00, 39.25, 41.75; Support: 35.50, 34.25,

31.75)

Local issues

Commerce Ministry to accelerate rice sales, exports.

Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarukulya spoke yesterday of

the ministry’s intention to dispose of 10mn tons of rice this

year out of the remaining 18mn in state stockpiles.

Furthermore, the ministry aims to stimulate exports as

much as possible and will accelerate free trade talks with

potential partners in the next six months. (Bangkok Post)

Government to ground substandard flights, says

Prayut. PM Prayut said Monday he ordered the Transport

Ministry to ground substandard airlines as part of effort to

restore the International Civil Aviation Organization

(ICAO)’s confidence in the Department of Civil Aviation

(DCA), so as to increase the chance of the former allowing

the service continuation of standard ones. ICAO will

announce its reaction to the DCA’s plan on June 18th.

(Bangkok Post)

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,560.32 -6.5 -0.4

SET50 1,033.75 -5.8 -0.6

SET P/E (x) 21.7

SET P/BV (x) 2.2

SET Div. Yield (%) 2.8

Dow Jones 18,034.93 +208.6 +1.2

S&P 500 2,100.40 +19.2 +0.9

NASDAQ 4,994.60 +62.8 +1.3

UK 7,052.13 +57.5 +0.8

Germany 11,891.91 +203.2 +1.7

France 5,187.59 +44.3 +0.9

Japan 19,634.49 -18.4 -0.1

South Korea 2,146.71 +3.2 +0.1

Hong Kong 27,094.93 -558.2 -2.0

China 4,217.08 -70.2 -1.6

Taiwan 9,552.85 -18.1 -0.2

Singapore 3,503.25 -21.9 -0.6

Malaysia 1,848.66 +2.8 +0.2

Indonesia 5,400.80 -9.8 -0.2

Philippines 7,865.27 -81.6 -1.0

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 1,884 3,511 -1,627

Proprietary 4,016 3,230 786

Foreign 13,811 13,840 -29

Individuals 19,165 18,296 869

Total Trading Value 38,877 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

PTT 3,389 352.00 -2.5

KBANK 2,036 233.00 -0.4

SCB 1,879 170.50 -2.6

BBL 1,830 188.00 +0.3

TMB 1,807 2.80 -2.8

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 56.38 +0.6 +1.1

Brent Crude 63.45 - -

Gold 1,193.70 -9.4 -0.8

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 32.38 +0.0 +0.2

EUR/USD 1.07 -0.0 -0.6

USD/JPY 119.18 +0.3 +0.2

USD/CNY 6.20 +0.0 +0.0

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance)

KTIS (S: 9.65.25, R: 10.20); SVI (S: 4.56, R: 5.10); BJC

(S: 14.00, R: 15.20); SET (S: 1,545, R: 1,571)

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpan (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094

Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015

2

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Public debt to GDP expected to stay below 50%. According to the deputy

director-general of the Finance Ministry’s Public Debt Management Office

(PDMO) says GDP is the main determinant of public debt ratio this year, as

borrowing plans are fixed, and if growth is at least 3.6% this year, Thailand’s

public debt will not exceed half of GDP. (Bangkok Post) Comment: Should

growth falls below 3.6% public debt would still be far from being too

high. In accordance with its fiscal sustainability framework the Ministry

aims to cap public-debt-to-GDP ratio at 60% but has set its own limit at

50% as a precautionary alarm. The often quoted figure of a dangerous

public-debt threshold is 90%.

Tax cuts offered for SEZs. Yesterday the cabinet approved concession to

allow factories located in special economic zones (SEZs) to have corporate

income tax halved to 10% for 10 years. Eligible factories must be those

mainly producing import substitutes or exports or operating in sectors where

Thailand is less competitive. Interested investors must submit their

proposals before 2017. (Bangkok Post)

ADVANC is upbeat over postpaid mobile growth as it expects mobile

postpaid market will continue to expand by 15-20% this year thanks to the

exploding growth in demand for mobile data usage while prepaid market has

reached saturation point (Bangkok Post)

KBANK reported 1Q15 net profit of Bt12.4bn, up 24.4% QoQ and 3.9% YoY.

(SET) Comment: This is in line with our forecast. Maintain BUY

recommendation with target price Bt262.00. Full report to follow today.

SCB reported 1Q15 net profit of Bt13.2bn, up 7.5% QoQ and 0.2% YoY.

(SET) Comment: This beat our forecast by 6% from higher than

expected non-interest income. Reiterate BUY recommendation with

target price Bt212.00. Full report to follow today.

Global issues Greece debt default looms large: IMF and G20 meetings in Washington

generated no progress on prospects of Greece reaching a deal on financial

aid that would keep it afloat and in the euro zone. The prospect of Greece

default is looming. (Reuters)

Ukraine debt default looms: Ukrainian authorities failed to secure an

agreement with creditors on Friday in their first attempt to extend maturities

of bonds issued by state-run Ukreximbank. Ukraine is seeking to restructure

the banks' bonds under an IMF backed overhaul of sovereign and state-

guaranteed debt to plug a US$15bn funding gap. (Reuters)

The dollar rose broadly on Monday, with the euro sliding more than half a

percent against the US currency, on growing concern that Greece may

default on debts. The US dollar index was last up 0.50%. (Reuters)

USA Wall Street shares rebounded sharply on Monday after China moved to

stimulate its slowing economy by reducing bank required reserve rate while

investors bought up technology stocks on cautious optimism on upcoming

earnings reports. (Reuters)

The quarterly results of US multinationals have been hurt by unusual

strength in the dollar, which has gained 8% so far in 2015. (Reuters)

Europe European stocks rose on Monday on an M&A deal in the telecom sector

and after China announced economic stimulus measures. However, worries

Greece may default limited gains. (Reuters)

Belgium's Telenet, a subsidiary of cable company Liberty Global reached an

agreement with Dutch KPN to acquire the latter's BASE Company, a

telephone company in Belgium, for €1.33bn (US$1.4bn). (Reuters)

Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015

3

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Asia Chinese shares erased gains as fears of a regulatory crackdown offset the

central bank measures. The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in

Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 1.6%. (Reuters)

Commodities Oil prices ended slightly higher on Monday after a drop in stockpiles at

the delivery point for US crude in the second half of last week outweighed

pressure from near record high production in Saudi Arabia. Brent crude

settled flat at US$63.45 a barrel. US crude finished up 64 cents at US$56.38.

(Reuters)

Gold fell below US$1,200 an ounce on Monday as equities rallied and the

dollar steadied, while traders assessed China's new policy measures to

shore up the world's second-largest economy. Spot gold was down 0.8% at

US$1,194.68 an ounce. US gold futures for June delivery fell US$9.40 to

settle at US$1,193.70 an ounce. (Reuters)

Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015

4

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Mon Tue Fri

3

XD

DTCI

RCL

UAC

XD

APCO

CHARAN

MK

NSI

PLAT

XD

CTW

MCS

NDR

TCOAT

6 7 10

XD

CSP

LTX

SMPC

TOG

XD

BKD

CCET

XD

CCP

FPI

KBANK

MAJOR

TCAP

TCAP-P

XD

BANPU

GC

SCB

SCB-P

13 14 17

XD

BBL

BIGC

FSMART

HMPRO

KGI

MINT

SCCC

TVI

20 21 24

XD

JMART

JMT

QLT

XD

AIT

ANAN

CIMBT

FORTH

GUNKUL

HTECH

KTB

KTB-P

TMB

TTCL

XD

ECF

KIAT

XD

BJC

QH

XD

AF

AMARIN

ASIA

SEAFCO

SST

TOPP

27 28

XD

BAFS

EFORL

EPCO

GRAND

MFC

MFEC

MTLS

OCEAN

QTC

ROJNA

S11

SF

VPO

XD

AMATA

CHG

CPF

GEL

MBAX

OHTL

PRAKIT

SSF

TICON

TISCO

TISCO-P

XD

ARROW

BAY

BSM

CCN

CENTEL

CPALL

CPR

EASTW

GLOW

HFT

JUBILE

KKP

KTIS

L&E

LH

LHBANK

PJW

PPS

SAPPE

SAUCE

SAWAD

SCG

SE-ED

SENA

SHANG

SIS

SRICHA

TRT

TWZ

UOBKH

UREKA

XD

ABICO

AHC

AKP

ALUCON

BEAUTY

BROOK

CPN

FIRE

FMT

IHL

IRCP

IVL

KWC

LST

M

MALEE

MC

MODERN

NEW

NPK

PB

PCSGH

PDI

PM

PPM

PPP

PT

SC

SPC

SYMC

TMI

TRU

TTA

UKEM

UPOIC

WACOAL

29

Thu

30

23

16

9

21

22

15

8

Wed

April-15

Date Regions

22-Apr-15 EU

23-Apr-15 CNY

EU

US

24-Apr-15 EU

US

Economic Indicators

Consumer Confidence

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Markit Manufacturing PMI

Markit Manufacturing PMI

Eurogroup meeting

Durable Goods Orders

5

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CG Rating

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014.

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOPBCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALIBTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCOCPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB

AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOGACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRCADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUEANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTEAOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTHASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTAASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTWASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVOBANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UACBAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGIBBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNTBECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL

2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICOAF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSCAH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCLAHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUFAIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVDAJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFPAKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMIAKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UPAMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPFAMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOICAMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UTAP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UVAPCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWCAPCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIHAQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVEARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHAAS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WINASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNERAYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA

Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)

6

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Contact

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,

Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,

Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21

Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,

Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,

Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd

Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad

Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang

District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi

20000

038-053-858 038-784-090

Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-

District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591