daily metals and energy report, april 03

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Commodities Daily Report

International Commodities

Wednesday| April 3, 2013

www.angelcommodities.com

Content Overview

Precious Metals

Energy

Base Metals

Important Events for today

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Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst

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(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130

Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst

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Anish Vyas - Research Analyst

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Overview

US Factory Orders increased by 3 percent in the month of February.

Spanish Manufacturing PMI declined to 44.2-mark in the last month.

UK’s Manufacturing PMI gained to 48.3-mark in the month of March.

European Unemployment Rate unchanged at 12 percent in February.

Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of better than

orecasted US factory orders data coupled with ease in the Euro Zone

debt crisis as Cyprus government completed the talks for aid with

European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International

Monetary Fund (IMF).

US Factory Orders increased by 3 percent in February as against a decline

of 1 percent a month ago. Investor's Business Daily (IBD)/ TechnoMetrica

nstitute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism increased by 4

points to 46.2-mark in March from 42.2-level in the month of February.

China’s Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased

by 1.1 points to 55.6-mark in March as against a rise of 54.5-level in

February.

The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of

ise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of

he trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.

However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of better

han expected US factory orders data. Further, positive US market

entiments also restricted upside movement in the DX. The currencyouched an intra-day high of 83.13 and closed at 83.09 on Tuesday.

The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the yesterday’s trading

ession. The currency depreciated on account of record high current

account deficit data coupled with weak global market sentiments in the

early part of the trade. The country’s account gap raised to $32.63 billion

n Q4 of 2012 as against a $22.3 billion in Q3 of 2012.

However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of

upbeat domestic market sentiments in the later part of the trade along

with weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.45

and closed at 54.42 against dollar on Tuesday.

For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,262.0 crores

$232.03 million) as on 2nd

April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital

nflows stood at Rs.56,884.40 crores ($10,542.10 million) till 2nd

April

2013.

UK’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.4

points to 48.3-mark in March as against a rise of 47.9-level in February.

Mortgage Approvals was at 52,000 in February with respect to 54,000 a

month earlier.

Market Highlights (% change) as on 2 April, 2013

Last Prev day w-o-w m-o-m

INR/$

(Spot)

54.42 -0.5 0.1 0.9

$/Euro

(Spot)

1.2818 -0.2 -0.3 -1.8

Dollar

Index

83.09 0.2 0.1 1.0

NIFTY 5748.1 0.8 1.9 -0.6

SENSEX 19041.0 0.9 1.8 -0.5

DJIA 14662.0 0.6 1.5 2.9

S&P 1570.3 0.5 0.4 3.4

Source:

The Euro depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trade

the back of unfavorable economic data from Europe cou

with strength in DX. However, sharp depreciation in

currency was cushioned as the International Monetary F

the European Central Bank and the European Union grant

extra years till 2018 to Cyprus to apply measures associate

its bailout.

Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (P

declined by 2.6 points to 44.2-mark in March from prev

rise of 46.8-level in February. Italian Manufacturing PMI fe

1.3 points to 44.5-level in March as compared to rise of 4

mark a month ago. European Final Manufacturing PMI

marginally by 0.2 points to 46.8-mark in last month w

respect to 46.6-level in prior month. European Unemploym

Rate remained unchanged at 12 percent for the month

February. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2808

closed at 1.2818 against dollar on Tuesday.







Market Highlights - Gold (% change) as on 2 April, 2013

Gold Unit LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Gold (Spot) $/oz 1575.2 -1.4 -1.5 0.0

Gold (Spot -

Mumbai)

Rs/10

gms

29525.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.3

Gold

(LBMA-PM

Fix) $/oz 1583.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.2

Comex

Gold

(June’13)

$/oz 1575.1 -1.6 -1.3 0.0

MCX Gold

(June’13)

Rs /10

gms

29149.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4

Source

Market Highlights - Silver (% change) as on 2 April, 2013

Silver Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Silver

(Spot)

$/oz 27.2 -2.9 -5.3 -5.1

Silver

(Spot -

Mumbai) Rs/1 kg 53362.0 -0.6 -2.6 -4.0

Silver

(LBMA) $/oz 2796.0 -2.4 -3.0 -3.4

ComexSilver

(May’13)

$/ oz 2721.7 0.0 -5.0 -5.4

MCX Silver

(May’13) Rs / kg 51473.0 -2.4 -4.8 -4.3

Source

Technical Chart – Spot Gold

Source: T

Bullion

Gold

Spot gold prices decreased around 1.4 percent in the yesterday’s

rading session on the back of strong US dollar index coupled withoptimistic global market sentiments which affected safe haven

demand from investors.

Further, reduce in worries over Cyprus bailout, kept investors away

rom safe haven. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of

$1573.39/oz and closed at $1575.2/oz in yesterday’s trading session.

n the Indian markets, prices ended on negative note in the yesterday

rading session tracking spot gold prices and closed at Rs.29149/10

gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 29120/10 gms on

Tuesday. Depreciation in the Indian rupee prevented sharp decline in

prices.

Silver

Taking cues from fall in spot gold prices coupled with decline in base

metal packs, spot silver prices decreased by 2.9 percent on Tuesday.

Further, strength in DX coupled with weak economic data from

Europe added downside pressure.

However, optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp

downside in prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day low

of $27.16 /oz and closed at $27.2/oz in yesterday’s trade.

On the domestic front, prices declined by 2.4 percent taking cues

rom spot silver and closed at Rs. 51473/kg after touching an intra-

day low of Rs. 51254/kg on Tuesday.

Outlook

n the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative

note as the worries over Cyprus has decreased as the International

Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union

granted 2 extra years till 2018 to the country to apply measures

ssociated to its bailout leading to decline in demand for safe haven.Further, strength in DX may add downside pressure. In the Indian

markets appreciation in the Indian rupee will exert downside

pressure on the prices.

Technical Outlook valid for April 3, 2013

Unit Support Resistance

Spot Gold $/oz 1565/1560 1576/1581

MCX Gold June’13 Rs/10 gms 29500/29400 29700/29800

Spot Silver $/oz 26.95/26.75 27.30/27.50

MCX Silver

May’13Rs/kg 51100/50700 51800/52200







Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change) as on 2 April, 2013

Crude Oil Unit LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

WTI (Spot) $/bbl 97.2 0.1 1.3 7.0

Brent

(Spot) $/bbl 110.8 0.8 2.4 -0.7

Nymex

Crude

(May ’13)

$/bbl 97.2 0.1 2.5 7.0

ICE Brent

Crude

(May’13)

$/bbl 110.7 -0.4 1.2 -0.8

MCX Crude

(April ’13) Rs/bbl 5304.0 0.4 1.3 6.6

Source

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change) as on 2 April, 2013

Natural

Gas (NG)Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Nymex

NG

$/mmbtu 3.96 -1.7 -0.40 14.55

MCX NG

(April

’13)

Rs/

mmbtu

216.7 -1.5 0.42 12.75

Source

Technical Chart – NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: T

Technical Chart – NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: T

nergy

rude Oil

ymex crude oil prices increased around 0.1 percent yesterday taking

es from better than forecasted US factory orders which led to

pectations of rise in demand for the fuel.

owever, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of more

an estimated rise in US crude oil inventories. Further, strength in the

X also prevented sharp positive movement in the prices. Crude oil

ices touched an intra-day high of $97.44/bbl and closed at $97.19/bbl

yesterday’s trading session.

n the domestic bourses, prices increased by 0.4 percent on account of

epreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs5304./bbl after

uching an intra-day high of Rs.5311/bbl on Tuesday.

PI Inventories Data

per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US

ude oil inventories increased more than expected by 4.7 million

rrels to 385.14 million barrels for the week ending on 29th

March

013. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 220.35 million

rrels and whereas distillate inventories dropped by 5.0 million barrels

115.38 million barrels for the same week.

A Inventories Forecast

he US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly

ventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is

pected to rise by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending on 29th

arch 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 0.8 million barrels

hereas distillate inventories are expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels

r the same period.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade

wer on the back of expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories

upled with strength in the DX. Additionally, more than forecasted rise

the US crude oil inventories from API in yesterday’s trading session

ll also add downside pressure. However, sharp downside in the prices

ll be cushioned on account of better US factory orders in yesterday’s

ade along with upbeat global market sentiments. Appreciation in the

dian Rupee will add more downside pressure in the prices on the

CX.

echnical Outlook valid for April 3, 2013


NYMEX Crude Oil $/bbl 96.10/95.60 97.40/98.20

MCX Crude April ’13 Rs/bbl 5260/5230 5330/5370







Base Metals

The base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of

unfavourable economic data from Europe which increased the

worries among the investors over decline in demand for base

metals. Further, manufacturing data from United Kingdom came

ower than the expectation fueling fears over the economic growth

of the country coupled with strength in DX. However, optimistic

global market sentiments coupled with decrease in worries over

Cyprus bailout cushioned sharp decline in prices. Positive US

factory orders also prevented sharp downside in prices.

Copper

Copper, the leader of the base metal pack declined by 0.7 percent

n yesterday’s trade on the back of unfavourable economic data

from Europe coupled with strength in DX. Further, sharp rise in LME

Copper inventories by 0.2 percent which stood at 571,125 tonnes

kept the prices under pressure. Additionally, Weak economic datafrom UK fuelling worries over country’s growth exerted downside

pressure.

However, decrease in worries over Cyprus bailout coupled with

optimistic global market sentiments prevented sharp downside in

prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7439/tonne and

closed at $7483.3/tonne yesterday’s trading session.

On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note and closed at

Rs. 408.6/kg on Tuesday after touching an intra-day low of Rs

406.1/kg. Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported prices to

trade in green.

Outlook

n the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the

negative note on the back of weak economic data from Europe and

UK in yesterday’s trading session increasing worries over economic

growth. Further, strength in DX coupled with expectation of decline

n ISM non-manufacturing data from US may add downside

pressure. However optimistic global market sentiments coupled

with expectation of positive ADP non-farm employment change

data may cushion sharp decline in prices.

n the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian rupee will exert

downside pressure on the prices.

Technical Outlook valid for April 3, 2013


MCX Copper April’13 Rs /kg 405/402 411/413

MCX Zinc April ’13 Rs /kg 100/99.2 101.5/102.5

MCX Lead April ’13 Rs /kg 111.2/110 113/114.8

MCX Aluminum April’13 Rs /kg 101.8/101 103.2/104

MCX Nickel April ’13 Rs /kg 888/880 904/912

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) as on 2 April, 2013

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

LME Copper (3

month)

$/tonne 7483.3 -0.7 -2.1 -4.6

MCX Copper

(April’13)

Rs/kg 408.6 0.1 -2.2 -5.2

LME Aluminum

(3 month)

$/tonne 1886.8 -0.9 -1.4 -4.6

MCX Aluminum

(April’13)

Rs /kg 102.5 -1.5 -0.1 -4.7

LME Nickel

(3 month)

$/tonne 16380.0 -1.8 -2.5 -1.8

MCX Nickel

(April’13)

Rs /kg 895.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1

LME Lead

(3 month)

$/tonne 2056.0 -2.4 -3.8 -7.8

MCX Lead

(April’13)

Rs /kg 112.2 -2.5 -2.7 -8.4

LME Zinc

(3 month)

$/tonne 1859.0 -2.0 -2.8 -7.6

MCX Zinc

(April’13)

Rs /kg 100.8 -2.2 -1.8 -8.3

Source

LME Inventories

Unit 2

nd

April 28

th

March

ActualChange

Copper tonnes 571,125 569,775 1,350

Aluminum tonnes 5,228,425 5,237,400 -8,975

Nickel tonnes 166,716 165,420 1,296

Zinc tonnes 1,171,100 1,175,525 -4,425

Lead tonnes 262,025 262,725 -700

Source

Technical Chart – LME Copper

Source:






Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

FOMC Member Evans Speaks US 5:00am - - - Medium

Halifax HPI m/m UK 3rd

-4th

- 0.2% 0.5% Medium

Construction PMI UK 2:00pm - 47.7 46.8 High

BOE Credit Conditions Survey UK 2:00pm - - - Medium

CPI Flash Estimate y/y Europe 2:30pm - 1.6% 1.8% Medium

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change US 5:45pm - 203K 198K High

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI US 7:30pm - 55.9 56.0 High

Crude Oil Inventories US 8:00pm - 2.2M 3.3M Medium

daily metals and energy report, april 03

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