daily metals and energy report october 12

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Commodities Daily Report

International Commodities

Friday| October 12, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Content Overview

Precious Metals

Energy

Base Metals

Important Events for today

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Research Team

Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Associate

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Overview:







verview

US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $44.2 billion in August.

French CPI declined by 0.3 percent in the last month.

US Unemployment Claims declined to 339,000 for the w/e on 5th Oct.

Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity increased by 0.4 percent in August.

US crude oil inventories rose by 1.7mn bbl in the last week.

ian markets are trading on firm note after observing favorable data

om the US economy and on China and Japan agreeing to hold talks over

e territorial dispute which was hampering the international trade.

S Trade Balance was at a deficit of $44.2 billion in August as against a

evious deficit of $42.5 billion a month ago. Unemployment Claims

eclined by 30,000 to 339,000 for the week ending on 5th October from

evious rise of 369,000 in prior week. Import Prices remained

nchanged at 1.1 percent for the month of September.

dia’s Trade Balance was at a deficit of $18.1 billion in September from

evious deficit of $15.6 billion in August.

S Dollar Index swung between gains and losses and ended 0.2 percent

wer due to rise in the risk appetite amongst market participants after

bserving positive economic data from the US economy. This led to

ecline in the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar

dex (DX).

S equities ended on a flat note. However, in the early part of the tradeins were registered on the back of positive global market sentiments

ter viewing favorable economic data from the US economy. The

rrency touched a low of 79.78 and closed at 79.86 levels on Thursday.

e Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterday’s trading

ssion. The currency appreciated on the back of optimistic statement

om Indian Finance Minister P Chidambaram that there is not serious

reat of ratings downgrading for India. Finance Minster have said that

ey have taken threat for downgrading ratings seriously and many new

forms will be implemented in next one and half years.

owever, weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX

the early part of the trade led to depreciation in the currency. It

uched a high of 52.62 in yesterday’s trade and closed at 52.67 on

ursday.

r the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 9,394.30 crores till 11th

ctober 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.

1,725.10 crores till 11th

October 2012.

Market Highlights (% change) as on 11 October, 2012

Last Prev day w-o-w m-o-m

INR/$

(Spot)

52.65 0.7 -1.8 4.9

$/Euro

(Spot)

1.2926 0.4 -0.7 -0.5

Dollar

Index

79.86 -0.2 0.5 0.8

NIFTY 5708.1 1.0 -1.4 5.0

SENSEX 18804.8 0.9 -1.3 4.3

DJIA 13326.4 -0.1 -1.8 -1.6

S&P 1432.84 0.0 -2.0 -0.1

Source:

Euro gained 0.4 percent due to rise in the risk appetite amomarket participants as International Monetary Fund Dire

Christine Lagarde backed giving Spain and Greece more tim

cut their budget deficits. Additionally weakness in the DX

supported an upside in the currency. The currency touche

high of 1.2952 and closed at 1.2926 on Thursday.

French Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.3 percen

September as against a rise of 0.7 percent in August.

Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity increased by 0.4 percen

August as against a decline of 0.7 percent a month Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) was at -1.4 percen

September from previous decline of 1.9 percent in August.

Money Stock remained unchanged at 2.4 percent in the

month. Japan’s Consumer Confidence declined by 0.4 point

40.1-level in September from previous rise of 40.5-mar

August.







Market Highlights - Gold (% change) as on 11 October, 20

Gold Unit LastPrev

dayWoW MoM

Gold (Spot) $/oz 1768.2 0.4 -1.1 0.1

Gold (Spot

-Mumbai)

Rs/10

gms31140.0 -0.3 0.7 -2.4

Gold

(LBMA-PM

Fix) $/oz 1769.0 0.4 -1.3 2.1

Comex

Gold

(Dec’12)

$/oz 1768.8 0.3 -1.4 0.0

MCX Gold

(Dec’12)

Rs /10

gms31321.0 -0.4 1.9 -3.1

Source

Market Highlights - Silver (% change) as on 11 October, 20

Silver Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Silver

(Spot)$/oz 34.0 0.1 -2.7 -1.9

Silver (Spot

-Mumbai) Rs/1 kg 61864.0 0.6 0.4 -0.7

Silver

(LBMA) $/oz 3423.0 1.3 -2.1 3.7

Comex

Silver(Dec’12)

$/ oz 3404.6 -0.1 -2.8 -1.9

MCX Silver

(Dec’12)Rs / kg 61778.0 -0.6 -0.5 -5.4

Source

Technical Chart – Spot Gold

Source: T

Bullion

Gold

Spot gold prices gained 0.4 percent due to upbeat global market

entiments and thereby rise in the risk appetite amongst the marketparticipants tracking positive data from the US economy. This led to

decline in the decline in demand for the US Dollar Index (DX). This in

urn supported an upside in the gold prices.

The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1,774.70/oz and closed

at $1,768.20/oz on Thursday. On the MCX, Gold October contract

ended 0.4 percent lower on the back of appreciation in the Indian

upee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.31,321/10 gms on Thursday

after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 31,283/ 10gms.

Silver

Spot silver prices gained 0.1 percent taking cues from strength in the

pot gold prices along with bullishness in the base metals pack.

Additionally, weakness in the DX also acted as a supportive factor for

he upside in the silver prices.

The white metal touched an intra-day high of $34.33/oz and closed at

$33.99/oz on Thursday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 0.6

percent on the back of appreciation in the Indian rupee and closed at

Rs. 61,778/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.61,731/kg on

Thursday.

Outlook

n the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note

on the back of firm global market sentiments along with weakness in

he DX. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian rupee will

ap sharp gain in the precious metals on the MCX.

Technical Outlook valid for October 12, 2012

Unit Support Resistance

Spot Gold $/oz 1763/1758 1776/1779

MCX Gold Dec’12 Rs/10 gms 31230/31140 31460/31520

Spot Silver $/oz 33.89/33.73 34.11/34.28

MCX Silver Dec’12 Rs/kg 61600/61300 62000/62300







Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change) as on 11 October, 2

Crude Oil Unit LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

WTI (Spot) $/bbl 92.2 1.0 0.5 -6.2 Brent

(Spot) $/bbl 116.6 0.1 5.1 0.4

Nymex

Crude

(Nov’12)

$/bbl 92.1 0.9 0.4 -6.3

ICE Brent

Crude

(Nov’12)

$/bbl 115.7 1.2 2.8 -1.0

MCX Crude

(Oct’12)Rs/bbl 4855.0 -0.6 2.8 -9.7

Source: Re

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change) as on 11 October, 20

Natural

Gas (NG)Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Nymex

NG

$/mmbtu 3.625 4.08 6.30 20.59

MCX NG

(Oct’12)

Rs/

mmbtu

189.6 1.94 7.00 14.35

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Nymex Crude Oil

Source: T

Technical Chart – Nymex Natural Gas

nergy

rude Oil

ymex crude oil prices gained 1 percent as US jobless claims declined

the lowest level in four years and increased tensions in the Middle

st raised worries of supply disruptions. Additionally, expectations of

ropean Union to further tighten sanctions on Iran if talks stall about

e country’s nuclear program along with weakness in the DX also

ded to the gains of the crude oil prices.

owever, further upside in the prices was capped as a result of rise in

e US crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices touched a high of

92.94/bbl and closed at $92.47/bbl on Thursday.

n the domestic bourses, prices declined 0.6 percent as a result of

ppreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,855/bbl after

uching a low of Rs.4,836/bbl on Thursday.

A Inventories Data

per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, US crude oil

ventories increased more than expected by 1.7 million barrels to

66.40 million barrels for the week ending on 5th October 2012.

asoline stocks declined by 534,000 barrels to 195.40 million barrels

d whereas distillate stockpiles drop by 3.20 million barrels to 120.90

illion barrels for the last week.

atural Gas

A Inventories Data

S Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly

ventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory has increased less

an expected by 72 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 3.725 trillion

bic feet for the week ending on 5th October 2012.

utlook

e expect crude oil prices to trade on positive note on the back of

pbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX.

dditionally, anticipation of disruption in the supplies from the Middle

st is expected to support an upside in the crude oil prices. On the

omestic front appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in

e crude oil prices on the MCX.

chnical Outlook valid for October 12, 2012


NYMEX Crude Oil $/bbl 91.72/91.24 92.85/93.42

MCX Crude Oct’12 Rs/bbl 4830/4805 4890/4920







ase Metals

he base metals pack traded on a mixed note in the yesterday’s

ade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which

ad to upside on the base metal prices.

dditionally, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in therices. However, mixed data of LME inventories exerted pressure on

he prices.

the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee prevented further

ains in the prices.

opper

opper, the leader of the base metals complex gained 0.8 percent

ue to positive global market sentiments as US jobs data raised

ptimism amongst market participants and increased the riskppetite. This weakened dollar and supported an upside in the

opper prices in yesterday’s session.

owever, marginal upside in LME Copper inventories by 0.1 percent

apped further upside in the copper prices which stood at 219,550

onnes. The red metal touched an intra-day high $8,283/tonne and

osed at $8,222/tonne in yesterday’s session.

n the domestic front, prices gained 0.1 percent and closed at

s.437.90/kg after touching a high of Rs.439.90/kg on Thursday.

owever, appreciation in the Indian rupee capped sharp gains in therices.

utlook

ase metal prices in today’s session are expected to trade firm due

o positive global market sentiments and on China and Japan

greeing to hold talks over the territorial dispute is likely to resume

ades. Thus, supporting an upside in base metals pack in today’s

ession. Additionally, weakness in the DX will also exert downside

ressure on the base metals. However, in the domestic markets

ppreciation in the Indian rupee will cap sharp rise in the prices of

ase metals on MCX.

echnical Outlook valid for October 12, 2012


CX Copper Nov’12 Rs /kg 436.0/434.0 439.60/441.0

CX Zinc Oct’12 Rs /kg 101.80/101.0 103.30/104.10

CX Lead Oct’12 Rs /kg 114.20/113.40 115.50/116.50

CX Aluminum Oct’12 Rs /kg 105.0/104.30 106.30/107.0

CX Nickel Oct’12 Rs /kg 927/919 940/950

Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) as on 11 October, 2012

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

LME Copper (3

month)

$/tonne 8222.0 0.8 -1.1 0.5

MCX Copper

(Nov’12)

Rs/kg 437.9 0.1 1.1 -3.8

LME Aluminum

(3 month)

$/tonne 2018.0 0.5 -4.8 -4.7

MCX Aluminum

(Oct’12)

Rs /kg 105.7 -0.3 -2.6 -8.4

LME Nickel

(3 month)

$/tonne 17665.0 0.1 -5.5 4.1

MCX Nickel

(Oct’12)

Rs /kg 932.4 -0.7 -3.4 -0.1

LME Lead

(3 month)

$/tonne 2184.5 -0.6 -4.6 0.2

MCX Lead

(Oct’12)

Rs /kg 114.9 -1.3 -2.3 -3.4

LME Zinc

(3 month)

$/tonne 1969.0 -0.5 -5.1 -4.0

MCX Zinc

(Oct’12)

Rs /kg 102.7 -1.2 -3.3 -7.9

Source

LME Inventories

Unit 11th

October 10th

October Actual

Change

Copper tonnes 219,550 219,425 125

Aluminum tonnes 5,047,275 5,025,775 21,500

Nickel tonnes 124,368 124,350 18

Zinc tonnes 1,008,250 1,009,575 -1,325

Lead tonnes 281,175 265,675 15,500

Source

Technical Chart – MCX Copper

Source:






Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Japan 5:20am 0.4% 0.5% -0.8% Medium

BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks Japan Tentative - - - Medium

Industrial Production m/m Euro 2:30pm - -0.5% 0.5% Medium

PPI m/m US 6:00pm - 0.8% 1.7% High

Core PPI m/m US 6:00pm - 0.2% 0.2% Medium

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US 7:25pm - 78.1 78.3 High

FOMC Member Lacker Speaks US 7:30pm - - - Medium

Federal Budget Balance US 11:30pm - 59.0B -190.5B Medium

daily metals and energy report october 12

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