daily metals and energy report august 7

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Com m odit ies Da i ly Rep ort

In ternat ional Commodi t ies

Tuesday| August 7 , 2012

www.angelcommodit ies .com

Content Overview

Prec ious M eta ls

Energy

Base M etals

Impo r tant Events for to day

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Research TeamNalini Rao - Sr. Research Analystnal ini [email protected](022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vy as - Research [email protected](022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Overv iew:







verv iew

Euro pean Sent ix Investor Confiden ce decl ined 30.3-mark in August.

UK’s Halifax House Price Index (HPI) decline d by 0.6 per cent in July.

LME Copper in vento ries declined by 0.5 percent yesterd ay.

Japan’s Leading Indicator s increased to 92.6 percent in th e last m ont h.

US Dol lar Index (DX) decl ined by 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trade.

sian m arkets are t rad ing on a f i rm note t aking cues f rom upbeat g loba l

arket sent im ents t r iggered by the opt imism t hat posit ive e f for ts by the

ro pean leaders m ight curtai l the Euro zone debt.

S Dol lar Index weakened 0.2 percent amidst posit ive global market

n t im ents and r ise in the r isk appet i te a f ter Germ an chancel lo r Angela

erkel governm ent backed the European Centr al bank’s (ECB) bond

ying programm e to cur ta i l Euro zone debt . Th is led to decl ine in th e

w yielding currency th at is US Dol lar Index.

S equit ies also ended on a posit ive note eyeing better results in the

uro group and opt imism that German government wi l l back the bond

ying plan of the ECB to tr im the Euro zone debt. The currency touched

intr a-day low of 82.13 and closed at 82.29.

e Indian Rupee appreciated b y 0.4 percent y esterday taking cues from

beat g loba l market sent im ents a long w i th m ore expected increase in

e US non-farm em ployment payro l ls.

ddit ional ly, Indian equit ies also ended on a posit ive note which

ppor ted upside in the currency. How ever , sharp po sit ive aspect in the

rrency was capped on the b ack o f negat ive out look by the Fi tch cred i t

t ings for ret ai l sector and r eal estat e sector .

touched an intra-day high of 55.23 in yesterday’s trading session and

osed a t 55.52 on M onday.

r the current month, FII inf lows totaled at Rs 1,906.70 crores t i l l 6t h

ugust 2012. Whi le on a year to date basis, net capital inf lows stood at

s 54,172.50 cr ores ti l l 6t h

August 2012.

K’s Halifax House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.6 percent in July as

mpared to r ise of 0.8 percent in June. Bri t ish Retai l Consort ium (BRC)

etai l Sales M onit or increased at slow p ace of 0.1 percent in July fr om

eviou s r ise of 1.4 per cent in June.

pan’s Leading Indicators increased at slow pace of 92.6 percent in June

om previous r ise o f 95.2 percent a m onth ago.

M arket H igh lights (% change) as on 6 August , 2012

Last Prev day w -o-w m-o-m

I N R / $

(Spot)

55.52 0.4 -0.2 0.6

$ / Eu ro(Spot)

1.24 0.1 1.1 0.7

DollarIndex

82.30 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3

NIFTY 5282.6 1.3 1.6 0.1

SENSEX 17413.0 1.3 1.6 0.1

DJIA 13117.5 0.2 0.3 3.0

S& P 1394.23 0.2 0.6 2.9

Source:

Euro apprecia ted 0 .1 percent due to opt imism that Gerchancel lor Angela Mer kel backed governm ent backed E

bond buying p lan to curb the Euro zone debt . However sh

r ise in the currency was capped due to unfavorab le econo

data f rom the reg ion. The currency touched a h igh o f 1 .2404

closed at 1.2385 on Friday.

European Sentix Investor Confidence decl ined further to 3mark in August with respect to previous decl ine of 29.6-leveJuly.







M arket Highl ights - Gold (% change) as on 6 August , 2012

Gold Unit LastPrev

da y

W o W M o M

Gold(Spot)

$ / o z 1610.4 0.4 -0.6 1.5

Gold(Spot -

M u m b a i)

Rs/ 10gm s

29825.0 0.3 0.0 1.0

Gold

(LBM A-PM Fix )

$ / o z 1610.0 0.5 -0.5 1.6

Comex

(Dec ’12)$ / o z 1612.9 0.4 -0.4 1.5

M CX(Oct ’12 )

Rs / 10gm s

29928.0 0.9 0.5 0.9

Source

M arket Highl ight s - Si lver (% change) as on 6 August , 2012

Si lv e r U n i t La st Pre v d a y W o W M o M

Silver(Spot)

$ / o z 27.9 0.3 -1.0 2.0

Silver (Spot- M u m b a i) Rs/ 1 kg 53700 .0 1.7 2.4 0.9

Silver(LBM A) $ / o z 2772.0 1.7 0.3 1.8

Comex(Sep’12)

$ / o z 2785.2 0.2 -0.6 1.6

M CX

(Sep’12)Rs / kg 53344 .0 0.1 -0.9 -0.4

Source

Technical Chart – Spot Go ld

Source: T

ullion

old

pot gold prices increased 0.4 percent due to weak upbeat global

arket sent iments a f ter repor ts that German government would back

CB’s bond buying programme. Addit ional ly, weakness in the DX also

cted as a supp ort ive factor for t he gold prices.

he ye l low m eta l touched an in t r aday h igh o f $1615oz and set t led a t

,610.39/oz in yesterday’s session. In the domestic markets gold

ices gained 0.9 percent tracking f i rmness in the spot prices and

osed at Rs.29,928/10gms after touching a high of Rs.30004/10 gms

n M onday. However , apprecia t ion in the Ind ian rupee capped sharp

ains in the dom estic m arkets.

i lver

pot si lver prices gained 0.3 percent taking cues from f i rmness in the

old prices along with strength in the base metals pack. Addit ional ly

eakness in the DX a lso provided suppor t t o t he w hi te m eta l pr ices.

he whi te meta l touched an in t raday h igh o f $28/oz and set t led a t

27.9/ oz on M onday. In the dom estic market s M CX Si lver prices gained

9 percent after touching a high of Rs.53,445/kg and closed at

s.53,344/kg in yesterday’s tr ade.

u t lo o k

today’s t rade we expect precious met a ls to t r ade sideways to up due

posi t ive globa l market sent im ents a long wi th w eakness in the DX. In

e dom est ic m arkets appreciat ion in the Ind ian rupee m ight cap sharp

ains.

echnical Outloo k va l id fo r August 7 , 2012

Unit Support Resistance

Spot Gold $ / oz 1 6 0 5 /1 5 9 9 1 6 1 5 /1 6 2 0

M CX Gold Oct ’12 Rs/ 10 gms 2 9 8 2 0 /2 9 7 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 /3 0 0 8 0

Spot Silver $ / oz 27.65/27 .50 27 .95 /28 .10

M CX Silver Sep’12 Rs/ kg 5 3 1 0 0 /5 2 8 0 0 5 3 6 0 0 /5 3 9 0 0







M arket Highl ights - Crud e Oi l (% change) as on 6 August , 20

Crude Oil Un it LastPrev .

d ayW o W M o M

W T I ( Sp o t ) $ / b b l 92.3 1.0 2.8 7.4 Brent

(Spot) $ / b b l 110.8 0.4 3.2 10.3

N y m e x

Crude(Aug’12)

$ / b b l 92.2 0.9 2.7 7.2

ICE Bren tCrude

(Aug’12)

$ / b b l 109.6 0.6 3.2 9.2

M CX Crude(Aug’12)

Rs/ bbl 5082.0 0.2 2.1 5.8

Source: Re

M arket Highl ights - Natural Gas (% change) as on 6 August , 2

N a t u ra lGas (NG)

U n i t La st Pre v . d a y W o W M o M

N y m e xN G

$ / m m b t u 2.932 1.45 -8.89 5.09 -

M CX N G(Aug’12)

Rs/m m b t u

160.2 -0.87 -9.85 1.59

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Nym ex Crude Oi l

Source: T

Technical Chart – Nym ex Natur al Gas

Source: T

nergy

ude Oi l

ymex crude oi l pr ices gained around 1 percent yesterday taking cues

om opt im ist ic sta tem ent o f German Chancel lo r Angela M erke l ’s thatwi l l back the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bond-buying plan.

dd i t iona l ly, a w eaker DX a long wi th posi t ive g lobal m arket sent im ents

so suppor ted upside in the crud e oi l pr ices.

ude prices touched an intra-day high of $92.33/bbl and closed at

2.20/bbl in yesterday’s trading session. On the domestic bourses,

ces increased by 0.2 percent and closed at Rs.5,082/bbl after

uch ing an in t ra-day h igh o f Rs.5095/bb l on M onday. However ,

precia t ion in the Ind ian Rupee capped sharp upside movement in

e prices.

e w s

opical Sto rm Ernesto has str ength ened in t he w estern Caribbean Sea

M onday and i t i s fo recasted t o becom e a hurr icane. A lso, i t i s

pected that i t can enter in t o M exico ’s Yucatan Peninsula but i t i s too

r ly to say wheth er i t w i l l d isrupt o i l and gas operat ions as per the US

recast exper ts. I t i s the f i f th la rgest storm of At lant ic hurr icane

ason and t rave l l ing at a speed o f 65 m i les per hou r (m ph) w hich has

creased from 50 mp h since yesterd ay.

PI Inven tories Forecast

e American Petroleum Inst i tute (API) is scheduled to release i ts

eekly inventories today and US crude oi l inventories are expected to

cl ine by 1.6 m i l l ion barrels for t he w eek ending on 3rd August 2012.

ut look

om the in t ra-day perspect ive , we expect crude o i l p r ices to t rade on

si t ive note on the back o f upbeat g loba l market sent iments a long

th weakness in the DX. Addit ional ly, expectat ions of storm Ernesto

in ing i ts m om entum coupled wi t h forecast o f decl ine in US crude o i l

vent ories wi l l supp ort u pside in the prices.

chnical Outloo k va l id fo r August 7 , 2012

Un it Support Resistance

YM EX Cru d e O i l $ / b b l 91.30/90 .60 92 .90 /93 .70

M CX Crude Aug’12 Rs/ bbl 5 0 4 0 /5 0 0 0 5 1 3 0 /5 1 7 0







Base M eta ls

The base metals pack traded on a posit ive note yesterday on the

back of r ise in r isk appeti te in the global markets coupled with

weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices wascapped on account of increase in LM E invent ories.

In the Indian markets appreciat ion in the Rupee restr icted sharp

upside in th e prices.

Copper

Copper, the leader of the base metals pack increased by 0.7

percent yesterday taking cues f rom upbeat g loba l market

sentiments. Addit ional ly, a weaker DX also acted as a posit ive

factor for the copper pr ices.

How ever, sharp upside in the pr ices w as capped on account of r ise

in LME copper inventor ies by 0 .5 percent w hich stood a t 245,950

tonnes. The red meta l touched an in t ra-day h igh o f $7494/ tonne

and closed at $7,480/ ton ne in yesterd ay’s trading session.

In the Indian markets prices gained by 0.2 percent and closed at

Rs.414.50/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.414.80/kg on

M onday. However , apprecia t ion in th e Ind ian Rupee prevented

fur ther gains in prices on th e M CX.

O ut look

W e expect base m eta ls pack to t rade h igher on the back o f posi t ive

market sent iments a long wi th weakness in the DX which wi l l

support an upside in the prices. Addit ional ly, expectat ions of

bound buying by the ECB wi l l a lso act as a posit ive factor for the

prices. Appreciat ion in the Indian Rupee wi l l cap sharp gains in

prices on the M CX.

Technical Outloo k va l id fo r A ugust 7 , 2012

Un it Support Resistance

M CX Copper Aug’12 Rs / kg 4 1 1 /4 0 9 4 1 6 /4 1 8

M CX Zinc Aug’12 Rs / kg 101.80/101.0 102.80/103.40

M CX Lead Aug’12 Rs / kg 104.20/103.50 105.40/106.0

M CX Aluminum Aug’12 Rs / kg 102.70/102.0 103.80/104.30

M CX Nicke l Aug’12 Rs / kg 8 6 8 /8 6 3 8 8 2 /8 8 9

M arket Highl ights - Base M etals (% change) as on 6 August , 2012

U n i t La st Pre v . d a y W o W M o M

LM E Copper (3

m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 7480.0 0.7 -0.8 -1.2

M CX C o p p e r

(Aug’12)

Rs/ kg 414.5 0.2 -1.3 -2.6

LM E Aluminum

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 1877.3 1.0 -1.1 -2.5

M CX A l u m i n u m

(Aug’12)

Rs / kg 103.2 0.2 0.0 -3.1

LM E Nicke l

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 15720.0 0.8 -2.7 -4.0

M CX Nicke l

(Aug’12)

Rs / kg 876.5 0.3 -1.9 -4.4

LM E Lead

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 1891.0 0.1 -2.7 0.5

M CX Lead

(Aug’12)

Rs / kg 104.8 -0.5 -2.3 -0.1

LM E Zinc

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 1848.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.4

M CX Zinc

(Aug’12)

Rs / kg 102.4 0.0 -0.1 -1.3

Source

LM E Invent ories

U n i t 6th

August 3rd

August Actual

Change

Copper tonnes 245,950 244,725 1 ,225

A l u m i n u m t o n n e s 4,880,425 4,864,450 15,975

Nicke l tonnes 115,992 115,314 678

Zinc tonnes 989,875 992,300 -2,425

Lead tonnes 326,550 327,100 -550

Source

Technical Chart – LM E Cop per

Source:






Im portan t Event s for Today

Indicator Countr y Time (IST) Actua l Forecast Previous Impa ct

BRC Retai l Sales M onitor y/ y UK 4:31am 0.1% - 1.4% M edium

I tal ian Industrial Production m/ m Euro 1:30pm - -1.0% 0.8% M edium

M anufactur ing Product ion m / m UK 2:00pm - -3.9% 1.2% High

I tal ian Prel im GDP q/ q Euro 2:30pm - -0.7% -0.8% M edium

German Factory Orders m/ m Euro 3:30pm - -0.8% 0.6% M edium

NIESR GDP Estim ate UK 7:30pm - - -0.2% M edium

daily metals and energy report august 7

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