damien j. gaul natural gas division
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Energy Information Administration. Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government. The Changing Face of North American LNG. Damien J. Gaul Natural Gas Division. New York Energy Forum 2008 February 5, 2008 New York, New York. Summary. 1. Review of Current Trends - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Damien J. GaulNatural Gas Division
New York Energy Forum 2008 February 5, 2008
New York, New York
The Changing Face
of North American LNG
Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Summary
1. Review of Current Trends
2. Natural Gas Outlook to 2030
3. Natural Gas Import Outlook
Producing Region
Consuming West
Consuming East
Current U.S. LNG Facilities
Source: Energy Information Administration
Elba Island
Kenai
Lake Charles
Cove Point
Everett
Marine Terminal – Export (1) Marine Terminal – Import (6) Storage (with liquefaction) (57) Storage (without liquefaction) (39) Stranded Utility (5) Vehicular Fuel (2) Nitrogen Rejection unit (5)
Gulf Gateway
NortheastGateway
Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals
Elba Island, Georgia7.3 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 1.2 Bcf per dayBaseload: 820 MMcf per day
Massachusetts, OffshoreGulf Gateway Energy Bridge Regasification Capacity:Peak: 600 MMcf per dayBaseload: 500 MMcf per day
Everett, Massachusetts3.4 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 1.035 Bcf per dayBaseload: 715 MMcf per day
Lake Charles, Louisiana9.0 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 2.1 Bcf per dayBaseload: 1.8 Bcf per day
Gulf of Mexico, OffshoreGulf Gateway Energy Bridge Regasification Capacity:Peak: 690 MMcf per dayBaseload: 500 MMcf per day
Cove Point, Maryland7.8 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 1.0 Bcf per dayBaseload: 750 MMcf per day
Source: Energy Information Administration
U.S. LNG Imports by Country, 1992-2007(Billion cubic feet)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Egypt
Other
Trinidad and Tobago
Nigeria
Algeria
Equatorial Guinea
Source: Energy Information Administration, based on data from the Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Dept. of Energy
LNG Imports by Terminal, 2007(Billion cubic feet)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Ja
n
Feb
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Everett Elba Island Cove Point Lake Charles Gulf Gateway
Source: Energy Information Administration
Overall Natural Gas Outlook to 2030
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1995 2006 2015 2030
AEO2007 High
AEO2007 Low
AEO2007 Reference
AEO2008 High
AEO2008 Low
AEO2008 Reference
Reference
High Price
Low Price
ProjectionHistory
World Oil Price Projections, AEO2007 and AEO2008 Cases
2006 dollars per barrel
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
9
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AEO2008AEO2007
History Projection
U.S Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1970-20302006 dollars per thousand cubic feet
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
U.S. Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030(Trillion cubic feet)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Transportation**
Industrial*
Residential
Commercial
Electric Power
ProjectionsHistory
* Includes lease and plant fuel ** Includes pipeline fuel
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008
2010 2020
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
2030
21.8
23.426.1
24.126.3
23.224.0
U.S. Consumption by Sector, AEO2007 and AEO2008 Cases
Electric Power
Trillion cubic feet
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlooks 2007-2008
Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2005-2030
(Trillion cubic feet)
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
27.5
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Growth in Alaskan production
Growth inNon-associated unconventional
Growth in LNG imports
Base production (all sources)
Growth inLower 48 offshore
• Natural Gas Import Outlook
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030
(Trillion cubic feet)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
16%15%Net Imports
Consumption
Production
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2006 and 2030 (Trillion cubic feet)
History Projections
2.9
0.50.5
2.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas
2006
2030
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
15
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ProjectionHistory
Pipeline
LNG
AEO2007
AEO2008
Net pipeline and LNG imports, AEO2007 and AEO2008 Cases
trillion cubic feet
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlooks 2007-2008
AEO2008
AEO2007
U.S. Monthly Consumption, Production and Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100J
an
-01
Ju
n-0
1
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Fe
b-0
3
Ju
l-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ma
y-0
4
Oc
t-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Au
g-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ap
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ma
y-0
9
Oc
t-0
9
Bcf
per
Day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Consumption
Net Imports
Production
Projection
Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2008.
U.S. Import Terminal Capacity(Trillion cubic feet)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Historic Projected
Everett, MA
Lake Charles, LA
Elba Island, GA
Cove Point, MD
Source: Energy Information Administration
Offshore Gulf
U.S. Import Terminal Capacity, 2003-2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bcf
Historic Projected
Existing Terminals
Sabine Pass LNG
Freeport LNG
Golden Pass
Source: Energy Information Administration
Cameron LNG
Northeast Gateway
North American LNG TerminalsExisting, Under Construction, and Approved as of February 1, 2008
Source: FERC Office of Energy Projects
A
15
B
Existing
Under Construction
Approved
9
C3
D 141
7
2
E
5
6
811
F
4
12
13
7
16
17
Existing: 7.0 BcfdA. Everett, MA : 1.0 Bcfd B. Cove Point, MD : 1.0 Bcfd C. Elba Island, GA : 1.2 Bcfd D. Lake Charles, LA : 2.1 BcfdE. Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge: 0.5 BcfdF. Altamira, Tamulipas, Mexico: 0.7 BcfdG. Northeast Gateway Energy Bridge: 0.5 Bcfd
Total: 7.0 Bcfd
2.56 Tcf/yr
New Capacity Under Construction: 11.7 BcfdB. Cove Point, MD, expansion: 0.8 BcfdC. Elba Island, GA, expansion: 0.9 Bcfd1. Freeport, TX, U.S. : 1.5 Bcfd2. Sabine, LA, U.S. : 2.6 Bcfd 3. Hackberry, LA, U.S. : 1.5
Bcfd4. Sabine, TX, U.S. : 2.0 Bcfd 5. St. John, NB, Canada : 1.0
Bcfd6. Baja California, Mexico : 1.0
Bcfd7. Offshore Boston, MA, U.S.: 0.4
Bcfd
Total: 11.7 Bcfd4.3 Tcf/yr
Approved Projects (and still active): 21.6 Bcfd
1. Freeport, TX, expansion 2.5 Bcfd
2. Sabine Pass, LA, expansion 1.4 Bcfd
3. Hackberry, LA, expansion 1.2 Bcfd
8. Corpus Christi, TX, U.S.: 2.6 Bcfd
9. Corpus Christi, TX, U.S. : 1.1 Bcfd
10. Fall River, MA, U.S. : 0.8 Bcfd
11 Corpus Christi, TX, U.S.: 1.0 Bcfd
12. Logan Township, NJ, U.S: 1.2 Bcfd
13. Port Arthur, TX, U.S.: 3.0 Bcfd
14. Pascagoula, MS, U.S.: 1.5 Bcfd
15. Pascagoula, MS, U.S.: 1.3 Bcfd
16. Port Lavaca, TX, U.S.: 1.0 Bcfd
16. Offshore Louisiana, U.S.: 1.0 Bcfd
17. Kitimat, BC, Canada: 1.0 Bcfd
18. Riviere-du-Loup, QC, Canada: 0.5 Bcfd19. Quebec City, QC, Canada: 0.5
Bcfd Total: 21.6 Bcfd
7.9 Tcf/yr
G10
1819
U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2030(Trillion cubic feet)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
History Projections
New Terminals
Existing Terminals
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Periodic Reports
Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2008, February 2008
International Energy Outlook 2007, June 2007, next release May 2008
www.eia.doe.govDamien [email protected]
Examples of Special Analyses
“Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
March 2004
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, December 2003
“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005