dan ellmore acting chair of active lincolnshire more peoplemore active more … · 2017. 12....

Welcome

Dan Ellmore Acting Chair of Active Lincolnshire

MORE PEOPLEMORE ACTIVEMORE OFTEN

Our Mission

20,021 More people, more active, more often by 2021

Our Vision

To make a positive difference through physical activity to the health & wellbeing of the community.

What the data tells us

Scott HartleyDirector, PressRed

Headlines for physical activity & sport behaviour – Aged 16+

What we are going to cover

• Key demographic factors• Where we are looking to focus attention• A bit on physical inactivity

o Table discussion 1• Locality headlines

o Table discussion 2• Demographic groups in greatest need

o Table discussion 3

Population Breakdown

England Active Lincolnshire0-15 18.91% 17.08%16-25 13.24% 11.82%26-34 12.13% 9.51%35-44 14.03% 12.84%45-54 13.73% 14.27%55-64 11.64% 13.75%65+ 16.34% 20.72%Female 50.82% 51.29%Limited a lot/ little 17.64% 20.37%

NS SEC 1-2 31.32% 27.60%

NS SEC 3-5 29.09% 31.16%

NS SEC 6-8 30.58% 34.52%

Unclassified 9.01% 6.72%White British 79.75% 93.01%BME 20.25% 6.99%

Source: ONS, Census 2011

PresenterPresentation NotesWithin localities Boston – high NsSEC 6-8 – 45%, high BME 16%East Lindsey – 26% 65+, 26% limiting illness, £.4% BMELincoln – 21% 16-25 years, 11% BMENorth Kesteven – 33% NS sec 1-2Sound Holland – NS Sec 6-8 39%South Kesteven – 33% Nsec 1-2West Lindsey – 31% Nssec 1-2, 3.7% BME

EnglandLimiting a lot 8.31%, a little 9.33%

Lincolnshire – Limiting a lot – 9.43%, a little 10.94%

Population Projections

Males 2017 Males 2037

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

Females 2017 Females 2037

Source: ONS 2014, subnational projections

PresenterPresentation Notes65+ population 2017 - 174,000, 65+ population 2037 - 250’000 – 2014 subnational population estimates, an increase of 76’000

2016 55+ net migration figures:East Lindsey 750+South Kesteven 300+North Kesteven 290+West Lindsey 250+South Holland 190+Boston -50Lincoln -130

Focus on…

• Inactive behaviour

• CSP wide priority is those aged 45 and over

• Take a geographical approach to:o Going where we can reach inactive people in

this age group in greater numberso Targeting different groups based upon the

‘need’ of that group in that given locality

PresenterPresentation NotesIt is a large proportion of the population and growingThe inequality between youngest and older age groups is worse than England. There are concerning trends among 45-54 and 65+ age groupsThere is significant overlap between older age groups and those with a limiting illness and disability

Active Lives (Adults aged 16+)

22.0% 22.2%

12.6% 12.7%

65.4% 65.1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

England Lincolnshire

Activity levels of whole population

Inactive Fairly Active Active

Source: Sport England, Active Lives, Nov 15 to Nov 16 – including gardening

PresenterPresentation NotesCompared to England, Lincolnshire has a higher proportion of older people, people with limiting illnesses, and people from Nssec groups 6-8. However, Lincolnshire as very similar to England in terms of physical activity.

Active Lives (Adults aged 16+)

1.7%

1.8%

9.5%

10.8%

14.4%

14.5%

0% 9% 18% 27%

England

Lincolnshire

Physical Inactivity Breakdown

Not enough: 1-29 minutes a weekLight only: have done only light intensity activity in the last 28 daysNothing: have done no activity in the last 28 days

Source: Sport England, Active Lives, May 15 to May 16 – excluding gardening

PresenterPresentation NotesActive Lives Survey – not including gardening

Lincolnshire breakdown:10,743 - Not enough could be doing 29 minutes of activity, could marketing get these over 30minutes?64,140 - Light only – doing activity which isn’t raising there heart rate enough, could this be yoga? Walking with their children young people?85,627- Nothing

INACTIVE Whole Population (Adults aged 16+)

Source: Sport England, APS 6/7 to 9/10

2012 2013 2014 2015

Country - England CSP - Lincolnshire

Linear (Country - England) Linear (CSP - Lincolnshire)

PresenterPresentation NotesLincolnshire has a slightly higher proportion of inactive population

0.03 increase that we think is about 12 people

Based on 3 years of trend, Lincolnshire had an annual rate of change of -0.38%, compared to Englands -0.44%. Unsure whether y4 figure (resulting in a annual rate of change of (=0.03%) is an anomaly or a new trend.

INACTIVE Whole Population (Adults aged 16+)

0%

10%

20%

30%

Blac

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untr

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Not

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Linc

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hire

Nor

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Wilt

shire

&…

Inactive (Active Lives)

CSPs Lincolnshire NN England

0.03%0.7%

-0.4% -0.6% -1.0%-2.5%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Nor

thum

berla

nd

Nor

folk

Linc

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Derb

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, Sol

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War

wic

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Percentage change in Inactive People (16+) y1 trend point 2012 - y4 trend point 2015trend point difference

Source: Active Lives Nov15 – Nov16, APS Jan12 – Jan 16

PresenterPresentation NotesThe trend point has increased by 0.03% for Lincolnshire between 2012 and 2015. Nottinghamshire, a NN to Lincolnshire based on demographic profile has seen an decrease of -2.5%. Had Lincolnshire also done this, there would be 14’800 less Inactive People.

Source: HM Government, A New Strategy for an Active Nation page 19

“the biggest gains and the best value for public investment is found in addressing the people who are least active”

Where should our focus be?

Discussion 1

On your table:

From your own knowledge and experience in the community…

1. How are the communities you are working with changing demographically?

2. Does the focus on moving people out of the ‘inactive’ group fit with local priorities and priorities for your organisation?

Physical activity behaviour by locality

Active Lives – Whole Population (Adults aged 16+)


22.0% 22.2% 18.2% 19.1% 19.7%23.8% 24.5% 25.7% 28.1%

12.6% 12.7%11.8% 13.0% 10.3%

12.0%16.6% 11.5%

14.3%

65.4% 65.1% 69.9% 67.8% 70.0%64.2% 58.9% 62.9%

57.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

England Lincolnshire NorthKesteven

East Lindsey Lincoln SouthKesteven

South Holland West Lindsey Boston

Activity levels of whole population

Inactive Fairly Active Active

PresenterPresentation NotesBoston has the highest proportion of Inactive People, however there Active People trend is improving faster than the CSP whole.

INACTIVE by locality (Adults aged 16+)

Better than CSP Active Lives, Positive APS Trend Better than CSP Active Lives, Negative APS TrendWorse than CSP Active Lives, Positive APS Trend Worse than CSP Active Lives, Negative APS Trend

Source: Active Lives Nov15 – Nov16, APS Jan12 – Jan 16

PresenterPresentation Notes

East Lindsey have a lower Inactive % than Lincolnshire CSP and they are progressing at a faster rateBoston have a higher inactive % than Lincolnshire but they are progressing quicker – are they a priority – what are they doing right?Lincoln and North Kesteven have a lower inactive % than Lincolnshire CSP but they are not progressing as fast. Are they a growing area for concern?

South Kesteven, West Lindsey and South Holland are all behind Lincolnshire and not progressing as fast. – these areas should be prioritised.

Discussion 2

On your table:


1. How does this evidence resonate with what you know locally?

Physical activity behaviour by demographic group

Inactive by Demographic Group compared to England

36.2%

29.3%27.0%

23.5% 22.4% 22.2% 21.6% 20.5%18.8%

17.6%

13.6% 12.6%

LTdisability

Age 55+ NS SeC6-8

Female WhiteBritish

Overall NS SeC3-5

Male Age 35-54

NoDisability

Age 16-34

NS Sec 1-2

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Lincolnshire England


Number of people classed as INACTIVE by demographic group

72111 71904

58404 56623

4025936985 36427

20764 20237

8014

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Age 55+ Female Male NS SEC 6-8 NS SEC 3-5 With LTLimitingIllness

Age 35-54 Age 16-34 NS SEC 1-2 BME*

Inactive Population

Source: Sport England, Active Lives, Nov 15 to Nov 16 – including gardening – *BME calculated

PresenterPresentation NotesBME Calculated internally*

131588 – total inactive population

Inactive age 45+ (excluding gardening) – 117536Inactive age 55+ (excluding gardening) – 93090

INACTIVE TRENDS – Adults aged 16+Population group England inactive trend Lincolnshire inactive trend

Whole population (16+)FemaleMaleHigher socio-economic groups (NS SeC 1-4)Lower socio-economic groups (NS SeC 5-8)No disabilityLong term limiting disabilityWhite BritishBlack and Minority EthnicAged 16-25Aged 26-34Aged 35-44Aged 45-54Aged 55-64Aged 65+

Source: Sport England, APS, Jan 12 to Jan 16

PresenterPresentation NotesBoston has the highest proportion of Inactive People, however there Active People trend is improving faster than the CSP whole.

PresenterPresentation Notes2 Factor: Inactivity within the 65+ age group is consistently high across all demographic factors and majority of trends are worsening. 24Age has a greater impact on physical activity behaviour in higher social grades. The proportion of inactive NSSeC 1-4 almost doubles when transitioning into the 65+ age group. 24

Boston – Low Activity levels for both age groups.East Lindsey – high level of activity for both age groupsLincoln – high level of activity for both age groupsNorth Kesteven – small inequality gap due to low activity level of 16-34, activity in age 55+ is highSouth Holland – large inequality gap due to low activity level in 55+South Kesteven – large inequality gap due to low activity level in 55+West Lindsey – activity levels similar to Lincolnshire and England

Number of people 55+ classed as INACTIVE by LA

34.7% 34.0% 33.5% 30.4% 27.8% 24.5% 23.4%

0%

12%

24%

36%

Boston South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey Lincoln East Lindsey North Kesteven

Active Lives - 55+ Inactive

LA Lincolnshire England


14694 14023

10799 9713 86357353 6381

0

5000

10000

15000

South Kesteven East Lindsey South Holland West Lindsey North Kesteven Boston Lincoln

55+ Inactive Population

PresenterPresentation NotesWhere would you focus interventions? high % or high population?

ACTIVE LINCOLNSHIRE 2017

Active Lives / Age 55+

Labels show inactive rate for 55+ age group

Discussion 3

On your table:


1. What information or evidence do you have on people aged 45+ and their physical activity behaviour?

2. What further insight would help you to positively impact on their physical activity behaviour?

Further food for thought locally - Inequality

PresenterPresentation NotesFor both Lincoln and South Kesteven females are actually lower (better) than males based upon Active lives dataFor Lincoln the APS data suggests the inequality gap is reducing however for South Kesteven the APS data is conflicting and suggests the inequality gap is rising

2 Factor: Across the older age groups, the change in female trends is less positive than males.

Boston – inactivity high for both males and females. Small inequality gap but the gap is wideningEast Lindsey – inactivity is lower than Lincolnshire and England, inequality gap is small but wideningLincoln – Male inactivity is higher than females, and also England and Lincolnshire figures. Lincoln is a young population and this is unexpected.N Kesteven – Large inequality gap, but based on a very low figure for male inactivity. Females are only slightly higher than Lincolnshire average.S Holland – inequality gap is almost double the national average, but narrowing. Based on a high proportion of inactive females. S Kesteven – Male inactivity is higher than females, and also England and Lincolnshire figures. This is partly based to a low inactive figure for females. West Lindsey – inequality gap is higher than the national average, but narrowing. Based on a high proportion of inactive females.

PresenterPresentation Notes2 Factor: Limiting disability creates large inequalities across all age groups.

Boston – huge inequality gap based on high level of inactivity in LT DisabilityEast Lindsey – huge inequality gap based on high level of inactivity in LT Disability and low level of No LT Disavility.Lincoln – small inequality gap buy based on low activity level in inactivityN Kesteven – no data for LT Disability. Low level of inactivity for No LT disability.South Holland – small inequality gap and reducing. Based on low inactivity level in LT Disability.S Kesteven – huge inequality gap based on high level of inactivity in LT Disability – gap increasingWest Lindsey – huge inequality gap based on high level of inactivity in LT Disability

PresenterPresentation NotesAPS data for gap trends is reducing – this is not only due to 5-8 improvements but also reductions in NS SeC 1-4

Lincoln trend only just reducing (APS data)

NB note at bottom should say based on NS Sec 1-4 and NS Sec 5-8

Inequality gap reducing across all localities with data availableBoston – Active large inequality gap but reducing. Based on low percentage of NSSEC 6-8East Lindsey – small inequality gap compared to England and LincolnshireLincoln – higher level of active for both groups, smaller than national inequality gap.North Kesteven – higher level of active for both groups, smaller than national inequality gap.South Holland – low levels of activity in both groups. Huge inequality gap. Nssec6-8 lowest active level in county.South Kesteven – higher level of active for both groups, smaller than national inequality gap.West Lindsey – no figure for nssec 6-8. nssec 1-2 similar to national and Lincolnshire

Discussion 4

On your table:


1. Do any of these inequalities surprise you?

2. Do we need to take these inequalities and their trends into account when working with local partners?

Focus on…

• Inactive behaviour

• CSP wide priority is those aged 45 and over

• Take a geographical approach to:o Going where we can reach inactive people in

this age group in greater numberso Targeting different groups based upon the

‘need’ of that group in that given locality

PresenterPresentation NotesIt is a large proportion of the population and growingThe inequality between youngest and older age groups is worse than England. There are concerning trends among 45-54 and 65+ age groupsThere is significant overlap between older age groups and those with a limiting illness and disability

Spotlight on Health

Jo MetcalfeNon-Exec DirectorActive Lincolnshire


Physical Activity & HealthWhat do we know?

Physical Activity Evidence base

PresenterPresentation NotesHave copies for the table – to be shown after the first exercise

Local data JSNA

PresenterPresentation NotesPrint off JSNA and ask people to consider the key areas within the JSNA and what areas physical activity could impact on.

Have a large copy of the summary page – circle the areas where physical activity could impact and star the top 3 areas.

Local Fit – Existing programmes

STP / NHS Five Year Forward View / GP Forward View

Self-Care / Social

Prescribing / Neighbourhood

teams

MECC / Teachable moments

PresenterPresentation NotesNotes to be added STP priorities and key headlines where PA fits within the NHS and GP forward view

Provide a quick overview of current conversations – SP and self-care. Consider these areas and where we need to ensure physical activity is in the conversation

Summary & next Steps

Collate feedback &

data

AL strategic plan:

consultation with partners

Physical Activity Strategy from

Active Lincolnshire

Dec/Jan Dec - March April 2018

A strategy for Lincolnshire


How can we work with you to make a difference?

PresenterPresentation NotesFinal points, we really want to create a social movement for physical activity to become the social norm in Lincolnshire to prevent / treat and support an active and healthy lifestyle – any comments ??

WelcomeOur MissionWhat the data tells usHeadlines for physical activity & sport behaviour – Aged 16+Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Where should our focus be?Slide Number 14Physical activity behaviour by localitySlide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Physical activity behaviour by demographic groupSlide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Active Lives / Age 55+Slide Number 26Further food for thought locally - InequalitySlide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Spotlight on HealthPhysical Activity & HealthPhysical Activity Evidence base Local data �JSNA Slide Number 37Summary & next StepsHow can we work �with you to make a difference?

dan ellmore acting chair of active lincolnshire more peoplemore active more … · 2017. 12....

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