data digest: georgia

Data Digest: GeorgiaData Digest: Georgia

August 2011

Georgia’s economic performance is slightly flatter than that of the United States.

About the Coincident Economic Indicator

115Coincident Economic Indicator

June 2011Jan 2001 = 100

110

105

100

United StatesGeorgia

95

Georgia

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

2

90

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/dataanalysis/about.cfm#CEI

Job gains remain elusive in Georgia as total employment has fallen below levels of the last recession.

4 300

Georgia Payroll EmploymentJune 2011

Thousands,seasonally adjusted

3,900

4,100

4,300

3,500

3,700

,

Georgia shed 8.4% of total employment from peak to trough.

3,100

3,300

2,700

2,900

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

3

2,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

All industries except education and health care saw significant job losses during the downturn and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred, gains have been modest to date.

0 8

Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: GeorgiaJune 2011

-6.0

-21.1

-10.0

-6.5

3.0

7.1

0.0

0.8

Other services

Federal government

State government

Local government

-17.3

-12.2

0.0

-7.4

0.0

6.4

8.9

1.8

Financial services

Business services

Education & healthcare

Leisure & hospitality Percent change trough to presentPercent change peak to trough

11 5

-11.2

-8.0

-18.3

17.3

0.4

0.9

4.8

0.3

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transport/Warehousing/Utilities

Information

-8.4

-40.0

-24.5

-11.5

0.3

2.8

1.2

Total

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Forty percent of Georgia’s construction j b h b l

4

Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the “peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20jobs have been lost.

Leisure and hospitality, transportation/warehouse/utilities, and business services continue to show positive employment momentum. State government, construction, information, and financial services employment remain very weak. Retail trade, local government, and wholesale trade show some improvement About Employment Momentumwholesale trade show some improvement.

10Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia

June 2011ExpandingImproving

4

6

8

t ch

ange

Business servicesRetail trade

Transport/Warehouse/Utilities

Leisure and hospitality

-2

0

2

nual

ized

per

cent

Business services

Construction Wholesale trade

Education and health care

Other services

Federal government

Local government

-8

-6

-4

mon

th a

vera

ge a

nn

ManufacturingInformation

Financial services

-14

-12

-10

3-m

State governmentContracting Slipping


5

14

-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Year-over-year percent change

http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/dataanalysis/about.cfm#employment

Job losses in Georgia’s metro areas have been staggering. Recovery has been slow and Valdosta, one of the smaller metro areas, continues to lose jobs.

Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: GeorgiaJune 2011

-8.1

-9.6

-4.3

4 8

1.3

0.0

3.3

Savannah

Valdosta

Warner Robins

18 7

-11.2

-8.3

-13.3

1.4

1.3

1.7

4.8

Dalton

Gainesville

Macon

Rome

-5.1

-13.2

-5.9

-18.7

0.6

2.5

1.8

Augusta

Brunswick

Columbus

Percent change trough to present

Percent change peak to trough

-7.2

-8.3

-9.1

3.1

1.4

0.5

Albany

Athens

AtlantaPercent change peak to trough

6

Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the

“peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas.


-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Some of the smaller metro areas—like Albany, Rome, Brunswick, Columbus, and Savannah—show positive employment momentum. Atlanta, Warner Robins, and Dalton are improving, while Augusta and other, smaller metro areas remain weak.

About Employment Momentum

10

Employment Momentum Metro Area: GeorgiaJune 2011

ExpandingImproving

6

8

chan

ge

AlbanyRome

2

4

ualiz

ed p

erce

nt c

Atlanta

Brunswick

DaltonColumbus

-2

0

onth

ave

rage

ann Savannah

Athens

Warner Robins

-6

-4

3-m

o GainesvilleAugusta Macon

Valdosta

Contracting Slipping


7

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Year-over-year percent change

http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/dataanalysis/about.cfm#employment

December 2010 marked the only month since May 2008 that Georgia’s employment momentum was in the “expanding” quadrant, although barely. Employment momentum in Georgia began improving in April 2011.

About Employment Momentum Track

4

Employment Momentum TrackJanuary 2007–June 2011

2

4

ualiz

ed

ExpandingImproving

-2

0

ent

chan

ge,

annu

-6

-4

nth

aver

age

perc

-10

-83-m

on

Contracting Slipping

8


-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3Year-over-year percent change

http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/dataanalysis/about.cfm#track

Georgia’s unemployment rate remains higher than the overall U.S. rate.

11

Unemployment RateJune 2011

Percent of labor force

9

10

7

8

9

GeorgiaUnited States

6

7

The table shows unemployment ratesfor metro areas. Current = May 2011. Year ago and January 2007 are included forcomparison.

4

5


9

comparison.3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Georgia—namely, the U6 figure—show that 17 percent of the state’s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, which is higher than comparable U.S. measures.

About Unemployment Rates

Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6Q2 2011 (Georgia U6: Q1 2011)Percent,

seasonally adjusted

16

18

20y j

10

12

14

6

8

10

United States: U6United States: Unemployment rateGeorgia: U6

0

2

4Georgia: U6Georgia: Unemployment rate

10

Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/Civilian labor force + Marginally attached. Georgia U6 data are through first-quarter 2011.


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/dataanalysis/about.cfm#unempl

Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain high.

25,000

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: GeorgiaJuly 9, 20114‐week moving average

21,000

23,000

15 000

17,000

19,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

7,000

9,000

Source: U.S Department of Labor–Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics

11

5,000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Sales tax revenues are rebounding and have been posting year-over-year increases since late 2010.

50

Georgia Sales Tax RevenueJune 2011

Year-over-year percent change,3-month average

30

40

10

20

-10

0

30

-20

10

Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

12

-30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Regional manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on decreases for all underlying components except employment.

70

Southeast Purchasing Managers IndexJune 2011

60

65

70

45

50

55

The Georgia component of the Southeast PMI was 56.9 in June 2011

35

40

45 2011.

20

25

30

13

Note: 50+ = Expansion

Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early 2010.

30

Existing Home SalesQ1 2011Year-over-year percent change

20

0

10

-10

United States

-30

-20Georgia

Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction remains near historic lows in Georgia and the United States as a whole.

10,000200,000

New Residential Home Construction PermitsJune 2011

8,000

9,000

160,000

180,000

5 000

6,000

7,000

100 000

120,000

140,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1,000

2,000

20,000

40,000United States (left scale)Georgia (right scale)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics

15

00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Home prices in Georgia have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further.

225

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexthrough May 2011Jan 2000 = 100

FHFA House Price Index: Q1 2011

1-yr % change

5-yr % change

10-yr % change

United States -3.1 -11.8 31.1

Georgia -5.8 -10.3 13.3

200

225

Albany -3.3 1.5 25.5

Athens -8.5 -6.4 17.7

Atlanta -6.4 -14.1 6.1

Brunswick -7.1 -5.4 36.1

Columbus -1.6 -0.9 31.9

175

Dalton -2.7 -9.7 16.1

Gainesville -5.1 -14.3 8.4

Macon -5.0 -3.7 16.2

Rome -3.0 -7.8 16.5

Savannah -4.7 -6.5 41.9

125

150

Valdosta -3.6 2.6 35.2

Warner Robins -0.2 -1.2 19.2100Atlanta

Composite 20

Source: S&P, Haver AnalyticsSource: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

16

75

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains low.

24

Office Vacancy RateQ2 2011Percent

22

18

20

14

16

12

United StatesAtlanta

Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics

17

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Atlanta.

22

Industrial Availability RateQ2 2011

Percent

18

20

14

16

10

12

6

8 United StatesAtlanta

Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics

18

4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Import activity through Georgia’s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through Georgia ports have been increasing.

Port ActivityQ1 2011$ thousands

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

10 000 000

12,000,000

14,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000Savannah District, importsSavannah District, exports

19

Note: The Savannah District includes Atlanta, Brunswick, and Savannah.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm.

20

data digest: georgia

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