Data-Driven Dialogue Predicting, Exploring, and Explaining

Data

September 6, 2012

Hygiene Elementary School

Outcomes & Process

• What predictions do we have about our data?

• What observations and trends appear from the data?

• What are our top priorities from the data?

• What are our root causes?

Why This Process?

• Education Accountability Act of 2009 (S.B. 09-163) requires all schools and districts to submit Unified Improvement Plans (UIP) to CDE to be posted at www.schoolview.org

• Unified Improvement Planning is a collaborative process where all staff have input into the school plan

Outcomes & Process

Data-Driven Dialogue Steps

• Step 1 – Predict (Activate & Engage)

• Step 2 – Explore (Explore & Discover)

• Step 3 – Explain (Organize & Integrate)

• Step 4 – Take Action

Outcomes & Process

• Data Team Roles– RECORDER

• Check with each team member before recording

– MATERIALS MANAGER• Organize data & charts for viewing, recording

– PROCESS CHECKER• Monitor for balanced participation

– ENVRIONMENTAL ENGINEER• Organize physical arrangement for all to view

Step 1: PredictThe purpose: To activate interest and bring out our prior knowledge,

preconceptions, and assumptions regarding the data with which we are about to work. Prediction allows dialogue participants to share the frame of reference through which they view the world and lays the foundation for collaborative inquiry.

The steps include:

1. Clarify the questions that can be answered by the data2. Make predictions about data3. Identify assumptions behind each prediction

 Prediction Sentence Starters:I predict . . . I expect to see . . . I anticipate . . . Assumption Questions: Why did I make that prediction?What is the thinking behind my prediction?What do I know that leads me to make that prediction?What experiences do I have that are consistent with my prediction?

Step 1: Predict

• ~5 minutes for Predict

• Data Sources:

TCAP Reading, Writing and Math:•Executive Summary – % P/A each grade (overall & subgroups)•Instructional Summary – sub-contents (ex. Vocab, fiction)•Scores compared to all schools in the District and also to Colorado•Growth Percentiles – overall and for subgroups

Step 1:Predict

Predictions Assumptions

Step 2: Explore• The purpose: Generate priority observations or fact statements

about the data that reflect the best thinking of the group.

• The steps include:1. Interact with the data (highlighting, creating graphical

representations, reorganizing)2. Look for patterns, trends, things that pop out3. Brainstorm a list of facts (observations)4. Prioritize observations5. Turn observations into priority performance challenges

• Avoid: Statements that use the word “because” or that attempt to identify the causes of data trends.

• Sentence starters:It appears . . . I see that . . . It seems . . . The data shows . . .

Step 2: Explore

• ~25 minutes for Explore

• Data sources (one at a time):

TCAP Reading, Writing and Math:•Executive Summary – % P/A each grade (overall & subgroups)•Instructional Summary – sub-contents (ex. Vocab, fiction)•Scores compared to all schools in the District and also to Colorado•Growth Percentiles – overall and for subgroups

Step 2: Explore• The purpose: Generate priority observations or fact statements

about the data that reflect the best thinking of the group.

• The steps include:1. Interact with the data (highlighting, creating graphical

representations, reorganizing)2. Look for patterns, trends, things that pop out3. Brainstorm a list of facts (observations)4. Prioritize observations5. Turn observations into priority performance challenges

• Avoid: Statements that use the word “because” or that attempt to identify the causes of data trends.

• Sentence starters:It appears . . . I see that . . . It seems . . . The data shows . . .

Share Group Findings

• Share the trends you saw in your data

• Share the Priority Performance Challenges– Summary of the data where there are challenges– For example:

• Persistent low performance among English Language Learners in reading across all standards and grades.

• For the past three years, English Language Learners have had median growth percentiles below 30 in all content areas, substantially below the minimum state expectation of 55.

Step 3: Explain• The Purpose: Generate theories of causation, keeping multiple

voices in the dialogue. Deepen thinking to get to the best explanations and identify additional data to use to validate the best theories.

• The steps include:1. Generate questions about observations 2. Brainstorm explanations3. Categorize/classify brainstormed explanations4. Narrow (based on criteria)5. Prioritize6. Get to root causes7. Validate with other data

Guiding Questions:• What explains our observations about out data? What might have

caused the patterns we see in the data?• Is this our best thinking? How can we narrow our explanations?• What additional data sources will we explore to validate our

explanation?

Root Causes

A cause is a “root cause” if:1. The problem would not have occurred if

the cause had not been present

2. The problem will not reoccur if the cause is dissolved

3. Correction of the cause will not lead to the same or similar problems

The school should have control over the

root cause

Root Cause Examples

• Non-Examples Student attributes (poverty level) Parent education & involvement Student motivation

• Why Non-Examples? Schools do not have control over these

causes

Root Cause Examples

The school does not provide additional support/interventions for students performing at the unsatisfactory level

Lack of clear expectations for tier 1 instruction in math. Lack of intervention tools and strategies for math. Limited English language development. Inconsistency in instruction in the area of language

development. Low expectations for all subgroups. Low expectations for IEP students.

Getting to Root Causes

The “5 Whys” Protocol (Explanation)

Proposed Cause:____________

1. Why? 4. Why?• Because…. • Because….

2. Why? 5. Why?• Because…. • Because….

3. Why?• Because….

5 Why ExampleELL students are not engaged in learning in the core content classes.

• Why? • Because…

– Core curriculum is not accessible to ELL students.

• Why? • Because…

– ELL students’ English skills are not proficient enough to participate in discussions, ask questions, and comprehend core content.

• Why? • Because…

– There is inconsistent English language support for students in core content classes.

• Why? • Because…

– Lack of implementation of INSIDE and EDGE ELL curriculum as parallel support for ELL students in core content classes.

Step 3: Explain

• 5 minutes for explanations

• 15 minutes for root cause identification

• Each group will chart explanations and identified root causes

Step 3: Explain• The Purpose: Generate theories of causation, keeping multiple

voices in the dialogue. Deepen thinking to get to the best explanations and identify additional data to use to validate the best theories.

• The steps include:1. Generate questions about observations 2. Brainstorm explanations3. Categorize/classify brainstormed explanations4. Narrow (based on criteria)5. Prioritize6. Get to root causes7. Validate with other data

Guiding Questions:• What explains our observations about out data? What might have

caused the patterns we see in the data?• Is this our best thinking? How can we narrow our explanations?• What additional data sources will we explore to validate our

explanation?

Share Group Work

• Trends

• Explanations

• Root causes

Next Steps

• Refine root causes• Validate root causes (does our other data

support the root cause)• Action Planning