data report 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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FINANCING THE FIGHT
FOR AFRICAS TRANSFORMATION
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A gl Bua Fao v a do of
MAfVa at th lauh of th
va Dmb 2010. Th va
wa dvlopd by th Mgt
Va Pojt (MVP) a pathp
btw Pogam fo Appopat
Thology Halth (PATH) ad th
Wold Halth Ogazato ad th
ft va to b atd pfally
fo a da that pmaly mpat
Afa popl, mgooal A.
Photo: Ga Moga/PATH
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1The2013 DaTa RepoRT
FinAncinG THe FiGHT FOr AFricAs TrAnsFOrMATiOn
Aowldgmt
Fowod
exutv summay
itoduto
MDG Pog idx
Fag th Fght
Domt expdtu sub-sahaa Afa cout
Offal Dvlopmt Ata to sub-sahaa Afa cout
MDG Wa room
rf Tabl
Mthodology
edot
03
04
07
17
19
27
57
61
71
79
30
46
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nuy hool tudt at a luh
of fh bad ad vgtabl ppad at
Th Hug Pojt Db Lbao ept
Wa, ethopa.
Photo: Davd syd/Th Hug Pojt
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3The2013 DaTa RepoRT
AcknOWLeDGeMenTs
e would like to thank ONEs board members and trusted advisors:
Bono, Josh Bolten, Howie Buffett, Susie Buffett, Joe Cerrell,
John Doerr, Jamie Drummond, Michael Elliott, Tom Freston, HeleneGayle, Mort Halperin, Mo Ibrahim, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Jeff Raikes,
Condoleezza Rice, Sheryl Sandberg, Kevin Sheekey, Bobby Shriver
and Lawrence Summers, as well as ONEs Africa Policy Advisory Board members:
Charles Abugre Akelyira, Dr. Melvin Ayogu, Amadou Mahtar Ba, Owen Barder,
David Barnard, Erik Charas, Romy Chevallier, Paul Collier, Nic Dawes, Zohra Dawood,
Eleni Z. Gabre-Madhin, Neville Gabriel, John Githongo, Anglique Kidjo,
Warren Krafchik, Acha Leke, Dr. Xiaoyun Li, Jon Lomy, Bunmi Makinwa,
Susan Mashibe, Dr. Richard Mkandawire, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane,
Ory Okolloh, Arunma Oteh, Rakesh R. Rajani, Mandla Sibeko, John Ulanga and
Russell Wildeman. We are grateful to ONEs friend and advisor Bob Geldof and our
distinguished International Patron, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, for their support
and guidance.
We are fortunate to have received comments and feedback on previous drafts of this
report from many partners in the NGO community and government. They have all
strengthened this report, and any remaining errors are our sole responsibility. We are
grateful to be able to draw on this strong group of stakeholders as well as many other
friends and colleagues around the world who have advised ONE on this report and in
all that we do. The statisticians at the OECDs Development Assistance Committee
provided the data which made this report possible. Thanks go to our faithful
copy-editor, David Wilson. The reports design and art direction were guided by the
talents of Christopher Mattox from Creative Circle and ONE staff members
Elizabeth Brady and Carolyn Williams.
The following ONE staff and consultants contributed significantly to the production
of this report: Guillaume Grosso, Tamira Gunzburg, Tom Hart, Jay Heimbach,
Erin Hohlfelder, David Hong, Andreas Huebers, Tobias Kahler, Katri Kemppainen-Bertram,
Molly Kinder, Joseph Kraus, Adrian Lovett, Dr. Sipho Moyo, Nachilala Nkombo,
Larry Nowels, Lauren Pfeifer, Friederike Rder, Kerezhi Sebany, Johanna Stratmann
and Eloise Todd.
The management, editing and production of this report were led by Sara Harcourt
and Caitlyn Mitchell; the writing was led by Ben Leo and data analysis was led by
Catherine Blampied.
To the millions of people who work and campaign tirelessly every day to make poverty
history in Africa, thank you. The perseverance and commitment of those working both
inside and outside governments are truly inspiring.
ERRORS AND OMISSIONS
This report went to print on 21 May 2013. The information in this report was, to the best of ourknowledge, current up until 21 May 2013. We acknowledge that events that occurred after this
point may mean that some of the figures and commitments in this report are out of date.
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4 Foreword
FOreWOrD
he world has changed dramatically in the 13 short years since leaders
around the globe universally agreed on the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs). In 2000, countless developing countries were labouring underdebilitating debt burdens, sluggish economic growth, underinvestment in
social services and physical infrastructure, and acute vulnerability to
external shocks. Like many of my counterparts around the world, as Minister of
Finance at that time I was struggling to address these headwinds, in helping to
rebuild a Rwandan economy that had been devastated by destructive conflict,
regional instability and poor government policies. At the same time, growth was
strong and rebounding in developed nations. Given the vast and seemingly growing
differences, international attention focused on ensuring that more countries and
their citizens benefited from the rapidly expanding reaches of globalisation. There
was an acute sense that globalisation also required global action to address the
widening gaps between the developing and developed worlds; collective action to
address conclusively the worlds injustices, which if not confronted would consume
the 21st century. The issues which weighed upon our minds included unacceptably
high levels of extreme poverty, the growing scourge of HIV/AIDS and other infectious
diseases, widespread lack of access to education and basic social services, and the
lack of economic opportunities for millions of poor people around the world.
Today, much of the developing world is surging, even as wealthier economies
continue to recover from the global financial crisis. It is an era of results, promise and
hope for the developing world. This dynamic is being felt across the African continent.
Nearly all African countries are experiencing robust growth and many are
demonstrating tremendous progress towards reaching the high bar of the MDGs. As
a region, sub-Saharan Africa has already made more than 40% of the progress
required to reach the MDG targets for gender parity in education, child mortality,
maternal mortality and access to safe water, ahead of the 2015 deadline. Progress likethis has not been limited to the African continent every region has made real
progress towards the MDGs.
Yet that progress remains uneven, and the job is not finished. In many countries, the
growth dividend has not reached the bottom of the pyramid. Inequality remains
widespread, and in some nations it continues to grow. An entire category of countries the fragile states risk being left behind entirely. And despite numerous bright
spots, sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag overall compared with other regions.
Over the coming two-and-a-half years, we must redouble our collective efforts to
accelerate the pace of progress and ensure that the fruits of our labour are systemic
and sustainable. This is a global responsibility, and all must play their part. In order to
convert strong economic growth into concrete and widespread human progress,
African governments must be accountable for their own political commitments on
health, education and agriculture. They must also deliver on their ambitious vision for
an economically integrated continent connected through trade, investment and
cross-border infrastructure. While Africas domestic resources were more modest 13
years ago, today they have grown over four-fold and are the most important source of
financing in the fight against extreme poverty, preventable disease and economic
opportunity on the continent. As this year s DATA Report illustrates, African
government expenditures now account for nearly 80% of all development resources
on the continent. Ensuring that Africas own commitments are met through targeted,
effective and accountable programmes will be essential to accelerating this struggle
for human dignity and opportunity.
Developed countries have a responsibility as well. Now is not the time for donors to
turn in on themselves, despite pressing challenges at home. While the developing
world stands on firmer ground than it did 13 years ago, the need for smart and
effective development assistance remains acute. Progress remains fragile in much of
the world. Investments must not only be safeguarded and expanded: they must
become irreversible. This includes focusing donors precious resources on effectiveinterventions and key areas where progress is either achievable or stalled. To this end,
2013 is a crucial year to replenish the multilateral institutions that leverage global
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5The2013 DaTa RepoRT
resources and invest in growth-enhancing and life-saving programmes. The African
Development Fund which provides grants and highly concessional loans to Africas
poorest nations will be soliciting contributions that will be invested strategically intransformative infrastructure, regional integration and private sector development
projects. These smart investments will help create jobs and provide growth
opportunities to position countries to achieve all of their development goals. Other
critical multilateral replenishments this year include those for the Global Fund to Fight
AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria focused on making progress against several of the
health MDGs and the World Banks International Development Association. All of
these institutions should be strongly supported.
Finally, both developing and developed countries can, and must, do more to increase
transparency on spending and to build capacity to track results. I am optimistic that
the latest agreement by six of the worlds largest international financial institutions
(including the African Development Bank) to strengthen statistical capacity in
member countries and to share data and monitoring of development outcomes willlead to more effective programmes and policies. This is just the start. More must be
done to ensure that every naira, peso, kwacha, rupee, shilling, dollar, euro or pound is
used where it is most needed, and that it delivers results for those whom we seek to
serve the worlds poorest citizens. This DATA Report makes a number of
recommendations, which merit active consideration by policy-makers across the
globe. I warmly commend it.
With sustained momentum and concerted effort, 2015 can be a turning point, not an
end point. And the next 1,000 days will determine whether Africa and other developing
regions will be ready to embark on the next set of challenges, in the post-MDG world.
Dr. Donald Kaberuka
President
African Development Bank Group
Groupe de la Banque Africaine de Dveloppement
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A youg woma fth wat at a
bohol th vllag of Blyag,
a Juba, south suda.
Photo: A Hol/Wold Ba
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7The2013 DaTa RepoRT
eXecUTiVe sUMMArY
he Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have rallied the international
community around a common fight and have mobilised a significant
body of resources, expertise and focus to help achieve their aim. In 2013the world is nearing the finish line and, with less than 1,000 days to go,
the stakes are high.
Despite sluggish growth in much of the world, emerging economies have led a
global recovery, and many sub-Saharan African countries have proved particularly
resilient, with growth rates averaging 5% over the past seven years. This continued
growth in the developing world, coupled with increased development assistance
over the past decade from donor countries, has delivered dramatic progress on a
number of fronts. Overall, the number of people living in extreme poverty declined
from 43% of the worlds population in 1990 to 21% in 2010. Should this progress
continue and expand to lagging regions and countries, the possibility of virtually
ending extreme poverty in the next few decades could be a reality. Compared with
2000, the annual number of child deaths has decreased by 2.7 million (from 9.6
million per year), and malaria deaths have fallen by more than a quarter. The
numbers of lives saved are truly astonishing.
In addition to halving extreme poverty, two other MDGs have already been met
globally improving access to clean water and achieving gender equality in primary
education. But these global averages disguise vast disparities between different
countries, regions and MDG indicators. Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is lagging
furthest behind on the majority of the MDGs, but individual countries are making
great strides. To support those countries that are showing progress but are short ofthe goal, collectively we must pick up the pace and increase momentum to get the
job done. The world cannot lose sight of current targets in our rush to create new
ones. A strong surge to achieve the 2015 goals will build the momentum needed to
sustain progress through the next development framework between 2016 and
2030, and ensure the virtual elimination of extreme poverty.
Further progress will require sustaining or increasing resources for development
from all sources. Development assistance from donors remains critical, but
developing countries own resources dwarf aid resources in many cases, and the
domestic political decisions that governments make about how to channel these
resources have the biggest effect on development outcomes.
ONEs 2013 DATA Report, Financing the Fight for Africas Transformation, examines
the recent progress of individual countries against eight core MDG targets,
particularly in sub-Saharan African countries, using the MDG Progress Index
originally developed by the Center for Global Development. 1 The report then
compares country progress on the MDGs against both African domestic
government spending and external donor financing in the health, agriculture and
education sectors.
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Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators and ONE calculations
Note: Total number of examined countries is 134. There are no partially on track countries for HIV/AIDS because there is no examined trajectory as for the othergoals: countries are either on track (if the prevalence rate has been held steady or decreased) or off track (if the prevalence rate has increased).
MDGtarGets
NUMber of coUNtries
half of all coUNtries 134
POVERTY
HUNGER
EDUCATION
GENDER
CHILD MORTALITY
MATERNAL MORTALITY
HIV/AIDS
WATER
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
On Track No DataPa rti al ly On Trac k O ff Tra ck
8 executive summary
keY FinDinGs
1 MDG progress continues to be strong overall.
fiGUre 1: 2013 MDG Pg ind, y MDG ind
ONEs analysis in the 2013 MDG Progress Index shows that, since 2010, 49 poor
countries have improved their overall MDG scores, 17 have declined and ten have
stayed the same. All in all, this demonstrates a positive trajectory for the majority ofcountries. The number of MDG trailblazers (those countries with a Progress Index
score of at least 5) is 45, ten of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. This is almost twice
the number of trailblazer countries from just two years ago. Furthermore, the gap
between poor and middle-income countries progress towards the MDGs continues
to narrow. Poor countries average scores are now nearly identical to those of middle-
income countries. Figure 1 shows that on five of the eight MDG targets measured inthis report, more than half of countries are either on track or partially on track to
meet these goals.
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Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators and ONE calculations
Note: ONE did not examine every single sub-Saharan African country due to
insufficient data. Countries excluded from this analysis are: Equatorial Guinea,Somalia and South Sudan. MDG Progress Index indicator coverage is not completein all cases due to the unavailability of data. In light of these data limitations,caution should be taken when considering these findings. Countries with reduceddata availability, and hence lower indicator coverage, are more likely to score lowerbecause they cannot achieve a score of 0.5 or 1 on these MDGs, hence thesemissing data points are effectively counted as zero.
Mali
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Ghana
Malawi
Uganda
Benin
Burkina Faso
Cape VerdeGambia
Niger
So Tom and Prncipe
Guinea
Mauritania
Senegal
Cameroon
Comoros
Djibouti
Liberia
Mozambique
Namibia
Togo
Zambia
Guinea-Bissau
MadagascarNigeria
Seychelles
South Africa
Angola
Central African Republic
Eritrea
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
Botswana
Cte dIvoire
Kenya
Lesotho
Mauritius
Swaziland
Burundi
Chad
GabonSudan
Congo, Republic of
Congo, DRC
Zimbabwe
MDG ProGress score
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Trailblazer Laggard
9The2013 DaTa RepoRT
2MDG progress is uneven acrosscountries, and too often growth isnot inclusive.
Sub-Saharan African countries are showing excellent
progress on average, among them top performers such
as Rwanda, Ethiopia, Malawi, Ghana, Uganda, Beninand Burkina Faso. But while the number of MDG
trailblazers has increased, 14 poor countries (nine of
which are in sub-Saharan Africa) are lagging behind
and have shown little improvement over time, or in
some cases have declined. This year, the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe stand out as
the worst-performing countries, with MDG Progress
Index scores of only 0.5. More worrying still, the vast
majority of laggards scores have remained the same
or have actually declined since 2010, with the exception
of Burundi and Cte dIvoire, which have shown some
moderate progress. Figure 2 shows the vast range of
rates of progress across sub-Saharan African
countries. There remains a worrying trend that
economic growth is not as correlated with poverty
reduction as it could be, raising questions about the
inclusivity of growth as well.
fgu 2: 2013 MDG Pg ind s, su-sn an cun
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10 executive summary
3 Resources for development in Africa have dramatically increased since 2000.
4 However, resources are far short of promised levels if financing commitmentswere kept, the results could be truly transformational.The majority of sub-Saharan African countries have not met their financing
commitments to health, agriculture or education. These commitments were
made in the African Union or other multilateral contexts and governments
committed to spend a certain percentage of their expenditures or GDP on health
(Abuja commitments), agriculture (Maputo commitments) and education (Dakar
commitments). Donor progress on commitments to give half of all ODA increases to
Africa, per the EUs commitment to achieve 0.7% ODA/GNI by 2015, is broadly off
track as well.
Some African countries are further behind than others, however, and the amount of
resources that are currently not being mobilised for these sectors could be life-
changing for millions of people. For instance, if Nigeria were to meet its health
spending commitment each year from 2013 to 2015, the total projected additional
resources ($22.5 billion), if invested in effective health programmes, could provide
anti-malarial bednets to every single citizen, fully vaccinate every young child against
deadly childhood diseases (such as pneumonia, rotavirus, diphtheria and whooping
cough) and provide antiretroviral treatment to every single person who is HIV-positive
in Nigeria. The malaria intervention alone could save the lives of almost half a million
children over time. If Angola were to meet its education spending commitment each
year from 2013 to 2015, just a fraction of the total projected additional resources
($21.6 billion) could ensure that every single child was enrolled in primary school.
Altogether, if sub-Saharan African countries met their spending commitments on
health (Abuja commitments), there would be an additional $68 billion availablebetween 2013 and 2015.
If sub-Saharan African countries met their spending commitments on agriculture
(Maputo commitments), there would be an additional $40 billion available between
2013 and 2015.
And if sub-Saharan African countries met their spending commitments on
education (Dakar commitments), there would be an additional $135 billion available
between 2013 and 2015.
In total, there could be an additional $243 billion available between 2013 and 2015
for these three sectors if sub-Saharan African governments kept all their promises.
In the past 12 years, expenditures by sub-Saharan African governments have
quadrupled and now account for 78% of total resource availability; see Figure 3.
In that same time, official development assistance (ODA) to the region has also
increased significantly. However, aid flows from major donors (the DAC countries) to
sub-Saharan Africa have dipped over the past two years, with a 6% decline between2011 and 2012.
Domestic expenditures increased from $84 billion in 2000 to $363 billion in 2011.
Over that same period, ODA to sub-Saharan Africa increased from $11.7 billion in
2000 to $41.8 billion in 2011, although it has declined from 2011 to 2012.
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84
11.7
2.3
6.313
2.3
14.4
15.7
2.6
10.8
18.1
2.9
1321.8
4.8
10.1 23.6
17.3
18.1
25.2
20.2
13.6 31.0
22.1
27.237.6
24.3
36.4
39.8
23.2
32.7
39.5
24.8
26.641.8
23.9
38.9
87 84
114
136156
182
220
273 265
314
363
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database; OECD DAC; World Bank World Development Indicators
Note: All data is measured in USD billions in current prices to compare all flows. African government expenditures are calculated by converting governmentexpenditure shares (measured as a percentage of GDP) into absolute expenditure estimates. ODA figures exclude debt relief. Remittances are defined asreceipts measured through the balance of payments method. FDI is defined as net inflows measured through the balance of payments method. Thefollowing countries are excluded due to lack of data for some flows: Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.
U
sDbillioNs
2000
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SSA Government Expenditures Foreign Direct InvestmentOfficial Development Assistance Remittances
11The2013 DaTa RepoRT
fiGUre 3: su-sn a (ssa) ru fw, 2000-11
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12 executive summary
6 Donor development assistance relates to better MDG outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa, but more shouldbe done to target assistance more effectively.This report finds a correlation between donor spending on sectoral priorities and
corresponding results on individual MDG targets. However, looking across total donor
spending per capita on all three sectors combined reveals a very weak correlation
with overall MDG progress. This relationship is much weaker than the previous
relationship between African domestic spending and overall MDG progress, raising
numerous questions that require further research. Although it is beyond the scope of
this report, future analysis may include looking more closely at the interaction
between donor spending and domestic spending. Within ONEs analysis, we find:
On average, sub-Saharan African countries that have received greater education
assistance over the past decade are also demonstrating better outcomes on the
education MDGs (primary completion and gender equality).
In health, sub-Saharan African countries that have received greater health
assistance per capita are demonstrating better outcomes on child mortality.
However, maternal mortality is showing the opposite relationship. This is not
necessarily surprising given that the majority of donor assistance over the past
decade has targeted other health priorities and maternal mortality challenges
often reflect broader health system obstacles that are harder to address through
vertical health interventions.
And finally, sub-Saharan African countries that have received greater agriculture
assistance flows, on average, are also demonstrating slightly better outcomes on
their extreme poverty and hunger MDGs. Agriculture spending, however, has been
notoriously neglected by donors, and increased commitment in this area, coupled
with improved country- and activity-level targeting, may lead to further progress.
5 There is a strong relationship between sub-Saharan African governments spending and MDG progress.
This report shows that, on average, sub-Saharan African countries that have allocated
a greater share of government expenditures to health, education and agriculture over
the past decade demonstrate improved MDG outcomes in those areas (see Figure 4).
In health, countries that are on track to achieve their child mortality reduction
targets are also those that are making greater progress towards their health(Abuja) spending targets (with an average deficit of only 21% between 2001 and
2010).2 This compares with an average health spending deficit of 42% for those
countries that are off track to meet their child mortality reduction targets.
In agriculture, countries that are currently on track to achieve their poverty targets
have an average agriculture (Maputo) spending deficit of 28%, whereas countries
that are currently off track have an average Maputo commitment spending deficit
of 61%. Similarly, countries that are currently on track to achieve their hunger
targets have an average Maputo spending deficit of 38%, whereas countries that
are off track have an average Maputo spending deficit of 49%.
In education, countries that are on track to achieve their primary education
completion rate targets by 2015 had an average education spending deficit
(towards their Dakar targets) of 32% between 2000 and 2010. This compares with
an average education spending deficit of 45% for those countries that are off
track to meet their primary education targets.
There is a robust positive correlation between sub-Saharan African countries
average social expenditures (combined health, education and agriculture
expenditure, as a share of their total expenditure over the past decade) and their MDG
Progress Index scores. Looking across all sectors, sub-Saharan countries that are
MDG trailblazers allocate an average of 39% of government spending to the above
three sectors, while those that are laggards allocate only 29%.
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Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, World Health Organisation, ReSAKSS, UNESCO, World Bank World Development Indicators and ONEcalculations
Note: Only 34 sub-Saharan African countries are examined here, due to limited data availability on health, agriculture and education expenditures. Since weare not examining the full period for agriculture (200309) and the figures used are estimates only, caution should be taken when interpreting these findings.
MDG ProGress iNDex score
socialexPeNDitUre(coMbiNeDhealth,
eDUcatioNaNDaGricUltUre)
as%o
ftotalexPeNDitUre
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
r2=0.349
13The2013 DaTa RepoRT
fiGUre 4: su-sn an Gvnmn emd avg spndng n h, edun nd aguu (cmnd)
Png t epndu (200010) y MDG Pg ind s
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14 executive summary
FiVe keY sTePs FOr sPrinTinG THrOUGH THe2015 FinisH Line
In the last 1,000 days until the MDGs deadline, there is a need for developing countries,
donor countries and development institutions to instil a greater sense of urgency and
focus into their efforts. Promoting a war room mentality, and ensuring that the 2015
deadline remains firmly in the forefront, is about ensuring that the effective use ofbillions of public sector development finance dollars and saving millions of lives. Thus,
ONE makes the following five recommendations to both increase the quality and
effectiveness of financing and increase the quantity of resources available:
iMPrOVinG THe QUALiTY OF DeVeLOPMenT FinAnce
1 Invigorate monitoring mechanisms and focus onacceleration plans.The UN and the World Bank will be leading quarterly meetings with an action-oriented
agenda focused on: (1) tracking up-to-date MDG outcomes and trends and (2)
designing and executing plans to accelerate progress on specific goals and in specific
countries, over the next three years. These decision-making sessions will support the
UNDPs MDG Acceleration exercise, which seeks to identify areas where noteworthy
progress can be achieved. After each quarterly meeting, the organisations will publicly
issue detailed progress updates. Every development actor including both developing
and donor country governments should present clear MDG acceleration plans that
span the next 1,000 days and beyond. They should publicly declare how they are moving
beyond business as usual and stating how they will intensify efforts, with accountable
actions and resources attached.
2 Accelerate budget and aid transparency implementation.
In addition to countries scaling up resources for development, it is equally importantfor all actors to significantly scale up efforts that will increase the impact and
effectiveness of both existing and new resources. For most developing nations, this
means dramatically improving budget and expenditure transparency. At the same
time, all donors should accelerate their respective timelines for joining and complying
with the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI). It is equally important to have
transparent mandatory reporting measures in the extractives industry and better
revenue management authority to increase the tax base in developing countries.
3 Improve the quality of service delivery.
Donor and African governments should rapidly scale up the Service Delivery
Indicators (SDI) Initiative, which tracks expenditures along with service delivery quality
and performance in the education and health sectors. The SDI Initiative is an effective
instrument for identifying performance challenges, such as resource leakages and
gaps in teacher knowledge or effort, to ensure greater stakeholder accountability.
4 Fulfil funding commitments.
African governments need to meet their commitments to spending in health,
education and agriculture to ensure that they are prioritising the allocation of
resources towards the MDG target areas. Donor governments need to meet global
and Africa assistance targets to ensure a global partnership for development
progress, and they must strategically allocate resources to countries and sectors
with the greatest potential for demonstrable impacts and outcomes.
5 Support full multilateral replenishments.
The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the African Development
Fund (ADF) and the World Banks International Development Association (IDA) will all
be soliciting multi-year financial pledges simultaneously from donor governments in
2013. All three organisations play a central role in supporting the MDGs especially in
Africa and it is essential that they are financed to the greatest extent possible.
increAsinG THe QUAnTiTY OF DeVeLOPMenT FinAnce
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15The2013 DaTa RepoRT
Youth Bug La Mwaah th
kba lum naob o of
thouad of kya vl oty
ogaato that hav tablhd
a v duato pogamm
fo mmb.
Photo: rado Gagal/UsAiD
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eduato pogamm a bgg
pmay duato to vulabl ad
oflt-afftd hld Ugada.
Photo: UsAiD
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17The2013 DaTa RepoRT
inTrODUcTiOn
he Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) deadline is now less than 1,000
days away. The world has officially entered the final leg of its 15-year journey
to halve extreme poverty and reduce child mortality by two-thirds, reversethe tide against HIV/AIDS and malaria and ensure that more people have
access to basic services, such as primary education and safe drinking water.
Despite a challenging global environment, many poor and middle-income countries
are making dramatic progress towards the highly ambitious MDG targets. Across
some countries and some targets, this progress has been faster than at any time in
the past 30 years. On the other hand, the performance of a number of countries
continues to lag. Some of these laggards are sufficiently large such as Nigeria and
the Democratic Republic of Congo that they are holding back regional rates of
progress. While the international community is surveying, consulting and debating
what the successor targets to the MDGs should look like, there is a fear that the
worlds attention may shift from the urgent task currently at hand. There is real
jeopardy in the current environment that the great progress made against extreme
poverty so far may be slowed, or even reversed. Developing countries, donor countries
and international partners therefore need to re-double their efforts to ensure that the
world flies past the current finish line, before embarking on an even more ambitious
agenda to push towards the end of extreme poverty from 2016 through to 2030.
To help ensure that the world accelerates progress over the next two-and-a-half years,
ONEs 2013 DATA Report, Financing the Fight for Africas Transformation, focuses on
development finance flows from the public sector which help the fight against
extreme poverty. For the first time, the DATA Report provides a robust assessment of
sub-Saharan African government spending towards sectoral commitments, alongside
traditional donor development assistance. Although this analysis does not look at all of
the resources available for development (such as foreign direct investment,remittances from the diaspora or private financing), it does focus on those resources
that governments (African and donor) have control over and can, and should, allocate
effectively to meet targets. To this end, the report makes three specific contributions.
First, it provides an updated assessment of country-level progress on the MDGs,
using recent data from the World Bank and other sources to analyse MDG
performance across all developing countries, and updating the MDG Progress Index
originally developed by the Center for Global Development. 1 This analysis identifies
where progress is robust, where it is at a tipping point and where it is lagging. We hope
that this will help governments and development organisations prioritise where toallocate scarce resources between now and 2015.
Second, the report focuses specifically on the domestic and donor financing picture
in sub-Saharan Africa for health, education and agriculture. Collectively, these three
sectors account for all but one of the core MDGs (i.e. safe drinking water). We track
African governments performance towards meeting their own MDG-related spending
commitments, which covers all three of these sectors. We also look at the effects of
donor spending on these sectors.
Third, this report contains a number of concrete proposals, which are intended to help
accelerate progress over the next two-and-a-half years and beyond, highlighting
those drivers that could be implemented relatively quickly and without significant
cost. We hope that this report will embolden all parties to re-double their efforts
between now and 2015 to continue, or perhaps even further accelerate, the
remarkable trends that we have seen. The report illustrates the importance of working
overtime to remove binding obstacles to progress, such as insecurity, inequality,
under-investment and poor governance, over the next few years and beyond.
The DATA Report is, and always has been, a tool for accountability holding leaders to
account for promises made, and using cold, hard data to show progress, or lack
thereof. There have been many iterations of the DATA Report over the past eight
years, but one trend that has held constant is the unwavering importance of up-to-
date, accurate statistics for monitoring progress and informing decision-making
and, alongside this, the incredible difficulty involved in securing such statistics,
especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This report acknowledges the gaps and caveats thatexist for much of the data and supports calls for greater statistical capacity-building
in poor countries. ONE is calling for a transparency revolution and a data revolution to
help ensure that statistics can be placed in the hands of citizens and public servants,
to help them drive progress. We are inspired by those organisations and initiatives
that are working to improve the measurement and monitoring of development
progress so that all citizens can hold governments to account and demand better in
the future.
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18 Part ONe: MDG PrOGress INDex
Walvi Ba on th Atlantic Ocan
i th main pot in Namibia and hom
to man fihing compani. Fihing i
on of th main contibuto to th
Namibian conom.
Photo: John Hogg/Wold Bank
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19The2013 DaTa RepoRT
MDG PrOGress INDex
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MDG PrOGress INDex
h bn mo hn 12 inc h wold
dopd h Unid Nion Millnnium Dclion,
nd wih wo-nd--hlf o h ddlin, hk hv nv bn high. How dvloping
couni fing on h highl mbiiou Millnnium
Dvlopmn Gol (MDG) g? How h
pfomnc chngd ov h p fw co
couni nd g? a h couni o g
h hv chd ipping poin? a h g on
which lil o no pog h bn md co h
mjoi of couni? th ll impon
conidion fo polic-mk nd pciion,
picull whn llocing cc ouc ov h
n fw , nd bond.
thi cion mp o nw h uion
b dploing h MDG Pog Ind mhodolog.1
th Ind lloc couni co ling o hi
pog owd igh co MDG g, wih co
of 8.0 pning on ck pog o m ll
g.2 Couni h pill on ck on
g civ co of 0.5, h hn 1, nd
couni h off ck civ co of 0. Uing
nwl vilbl d, hi cion oulin up dd
nd in how individul couni fing, wih
pcil focu on h poo couni. 3 Poo d
uli, howv, min iou chllng;
widpd d viion nd gp coninu o poignificn chllng fo muing dvloping
couni pog on conin bi co h
viou indico. Fo mo infomion bou h
MDG Pog Ind coing nd h iu of d
vilbili, pl h mhodolog cion h
nd of hi po.
Key MDG PrOGress FINDINGs
Progress Continues to be strong
sinc 2011, h numb of dvloping couni wih n
MDG Pog Ind co of 5.0 o mo ohwi
known MDG ilblz h jumpd fom 27 o
45.4 Of h, 26 clifid poo couni nd
n locd in ub-shn afic. Ovll h
Mldiv h diplcd Cmbodi h op-
pfoming coun nd i on ck o chiv ll of
h co MDG g. Boh Cmbodi nd si Lnk
hv co of 7.0; howv, Cmbodi co h
doppd fom 8.0 l , wh si Lnk co
o fom 6.0. Bd on obvd jcoi, nl
ll of h 45 MDG ilblz would chiv l
hlf of h mind MDG g.5
among poo couni, fou couni joind h MDG
ilblz nk hi (Bngldh, Bnin, Bolivi nd
Gmbi).6 two couni doppd off h li (Gogi nd
smo) du o dclin in hi pfomnc.
sub-shn aficn couni howing clln
pog on vg. th op n pfom in 2013
Mli7 nd rwnd (coing 6.0), ehiopi, Mlwi,
Ghn nd Ugnd (coing 5.5) nd Bnin, Bukin
Fo, Cp Vd nd Gmbi (coing 5.0). a lgmjoi of ub-shn aficn couni (30 of 46)
hv impovd hi co inc h 2010 I nd.
svl couni hv md dmic lp fowd,
coing wo o mo poin high in 2013 hn in 2010.
th includ rwnd, Guin-Biu, Bnin, Nig,
Mli, so tom nd Pncip nd Libi.
GAUGING DeVeLOPING COUNTry
PerFOrMANCe MDG PrOGress INDex
The MillenniuM DevelopMenT Goals
souc: UNDP Bzil
20
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0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
MDG proGress inDex score
Mldiv
Cmbodi
si Lnk
Hondu
Bhun
Bolivi
Indi
Lo
Mli
Mongoli
Npl
Nicgu
rwnd
Vinm
amniehiopi
Ghn
Mlwi
Pkin
Ugnd
Bngldh
Bnin
Bukin Fo
Cp Vd
Gmbi
timo-L
2013 2010
21The2013 DaTa RepoRT
FiGure 1: MDG pg id Tz (2013 d 2010), p ct
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souc: Wold Bnk, Wold Dvlopmn Indico nd ONe clculion
No: th covg of MDG Pog Ind indico i no compl du o unvilbili of d; wh d i miing fo n indico, coun ffcivlciv co of zo fo h indico. Lck of d i picull mkd fo h Dmocic rpublic of Congo (which h onl fiv indico covd),s. Vin cn nd h Gndin (which h onl fiv indic o covd) nd tong (which h onl fou indico covd). In ligh of h d limiion,cuion hould b kn whn coniding h finding.
C d'Ivoi
Kn
LohoBuundi
Chd
s. Luci
s. Vincn & h Gndin
sudn
tong
Congo, rpublic of
Ppu Nw Guin
Uzbkin
Congo, DrCZimbbw
MDG proGress inDex score2013 2010
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
22 MDG ProGress InDex
on AverAge, Countries Are imProving
their sCores
Ovll mong poo couni, h MDG Pog
Ind co of 49 couni hv impovd ov h
p h , ho of 17 couni hv dclind
nd n hv mind unchngd.8 thi illu
gnl nd of ccld pog, lbi wih
mining pock of lgging pfomnc. sinc
2010, 16 couni co hv incd b l
2.0. th couni includ afghnin, Bngldh,
Bnin, Bhun, Boni-Hzgovin, Guin-Biu,
Hii, Libi, h Mldiv, Mli, Nig, Pkin,
rwnd, so tom nd Pncip, si Lnk nd
timo-L. In h oh dicion, h Kgz
rpublic h pincd h wo dclin, i co
dcing b 2.0 inc 2010. anoh i couni
hv hown dc of 1.5: Kiibi, Loho,
s. Vincn nd h Gndin, tong, h rpublic
of Congo nd Uzbkin.
in A smAll grouP of Countries, Progress is
stAlled, or getting Worse
Ou of ol of 134 couni d, 25
clifid MDG lggd du o poo o dclining
pfomnc ( co of 2.0 o l). Foun of h
lggd poo couni nd 11 middl-incom
couni. among poo couni, hi h
FiGure 2: MDG pg id lggd (2013 d 2010), p ct
Dmocic rpublic of Congo (DrC) nd Zimb bw
nd ou h wo-pfoming couni, wih
MDG Pog Ind co of onl 0.5; Figu 2.
th rpublic of Congo, Ppu Nw Gui n nd
Uzbkin onl ju hd wih co of 1.0.
Bd on hi obvd jcoi, onl on coun
fom hi goup will chiv ingl co MDG g
(h rpublic of Congo i on ck o m i HIV/
aIDs g). Mo woing ill, h v mjoi of
h lggd co hv mind h m o hv
cull dclind inc 2010, wih h cpion of
Buundi nd C dIvoi, which howd om
mod pog.
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23The2013 DaTa RepoRT
two couni nobl fo cping h lggd
goup inc l Ind: h Cnl aficn
rpublic, who co impovd fom 1.0 o 2.5, nd
Guin-Biu, who co impovd fom 0.5 o 3.0.
On h oh hnd, wo couni nd h li of
MDG lggd (s. Luci nd sudn), du o dclining
pfomnc. No upiingl, h li of MDG
lggd coninu o coni minl of po-conflic
couni o fgil . Moov, h mjoi of
h lggd ill locd in ub-shn afic
(nin ou of 14).
Poor Countries Are Closing the gAP With
middle-inCome Countries
th gp bwn h pog of poo couni nd
middl-incom couni (MIC) owd h MDG
coninu o now. Poo couni vg co
now nl idnicl o ho of MIC (3.88 vu 3.96).
th pfomnc of MIC dclind ov h p ,
wih h vg co dcing fom 4.07 o 3.96.9
In m of individul couni, h now 19
middl-incom MDG ilblz of which vn
locd in Lin amic nd fiv in e ai nd h
Pcific. No ingl MIC cn mch h high co
mong h poo couni. among h middl-incom
couni, fiv now id fo b pfomnc wih
co of 6.5 Bzil, egp, Indoni, Pnm nd
tuk. Bulgi, Pnm, Indoni, tuk nd
Uugu hv hibid h mo dmic
impovmn inc 2010, whil algi, Muiiu nd
Jodn hv pincd h wo dclin. Chin
Ind co mind conn 6.0 fo h hid in ow.10
Ovll, poo couni pfom b, on vg, on
fou of h co MDG indico m pov,
hung, mnl moli nd HIV/aIDs lhough
h ul m b divn p ill b h Ind
lin mhodolog, MIC wih high dvlopmn
indico blin m find i mo difficul o col
FiGure 3: hgt d lwt pfm (201013), Mdd-im ct
MDG proGress inDex score
2013 2012 2011 2010
CHANGe
(201013)
Trailblazers
Bazil 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0
egpt 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 0.5
Indonia 6.5 6.0 4.5 4.0 2.5
Panama 6.5 5.0 5.0 3.5 3.0
Tuk 6.5 6.5 3.5 4.0 2.5
China * 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 -1.0
ecuado 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.0 -1.0
Ian 6.0 5.5 5.0 6.0 0.0
Pu 6.0 7.5 5.0 5.5 0.5
Tuniia 6.0 6.0 5.5 7.0 -1.0
Chil 5.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 0.0
Fiji 5.5 6.5 3.5 3.5 2.0
Malaia 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.5 1.0
Mico 5.5 6.5 6.5 4.5 1.0
Philippin 5.5 6.0 5.0 5.0 0.5
Bulgaia 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.5 4.5el salvado 5.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 0.0
Thailand * 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.0
Uugua 5.0 4.0 4.5 2.5 2.5
laGGarDs
Albania * 2.0 2.0 4.5 3.5 -1.5
Botwana * 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.5 -1.5
Mauitiu * 2.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 -2.0
Miconia * 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0
Palau * 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0
st. Kitt and Nvi * 2.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 0.5
swaziland 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0
Ukain 2.0 3.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
Gabon * 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5Jamaica 1.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 -1.0
Iaq * 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 -1.5
souc: Wold Bnk, Wold Dvlopmn Indico nd ONe clculion
No: th covg of MDG Pog Ind indico i no compl in ll c du o unvilbili of d. Couni wih miing d poin ffcivl co zoon ho indico. In ligh of h d limiion, cuion hould b kn whn coniding h finding. aik indic h d i unvilbl fo on omo indico. ONe h lo clculd djud MDG co, which ppl h vg co fo h indico wh h i vilbl d o whol of ighindico. svn of h 11 middl-incom lggd hv high djud co hn cul co. si of h couni would no long b cld lggdccoding o hi djud co: albni (2.3 oppod o 2.0), Bown (2.3 oppod o 2.0), Muiiu (2.3 oppod o 2.0), h Fdd s ofMiconi (4.0 oppod o 2.0), Plu (4.0 oppod o 2.0) nd s. Ki nd Nvi (3.2 oppod o 2.0). th of h couni djud co do no chnghi nding.
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1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
souc: Wold Bnk, Wold Dvlopmn Indico nd ONe clculion
No: D covg i no compl, hfo fo ch indico om couni miing co. th miing co cludd fom hi nli ofvg, h hn bing cound zo.
extreMe
POVerty
HUNGer eDUCatION GeNDer
eqUaLIty
CHILD
MOrtaLIty
MaterNaL
MOrtaLIty
HIV/aIDs Water
averaGeproGressinDicaTor
score
2010 2011 2012 2013
24 MDG ProGress InDex
FiGure 4: MDG pg id, ag pfm y idt ( 201013), p ct
o chiv h uid ducion mong h
mining populion. Convl, MIC coninu o
ignificnl oupfom poo couni on h MDG
indico h hv bolu g (ducion nd
gnd uli) lgl du o hi nod high
ing poin.11
Progress is WidesPreAd ACross tArgets
Poo couni hv impovd, on vg, on i co
MDG g indico inc 2010 m pov,
hung, child moli, mnl moli, HIV/aIDs
nd w. Mo pcificll, h hv dmond
h mo ignificn impovmn on h mnl
moli, child moli nd w g wih
vg co incing b 0.19, 0.15 nd 0.14
pcivl. avg co hv dclind fo wo co
MDG indico (ducion nd gnd uli).
Howv, ducion nd gnd uli d min
ui volil on -o- bi. a ul, i i
difficul o dw conc concluion bou
fundmnl pfomnc nd hi im.
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OFF traCK
(HIGHer PreVaLeNCe)
ON traCK
(UNCHaNGeD PreVaLeNCe)
ON traCK
(LOWer PreVaLeNCe)
souc: Wold Bnk, Wold Dvlopmn Indico nd ONe clculion
33
11
2
79
26
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990 2000
nuM
ber
oFssa
counTries
25The2013 DaTa RepoRT
FiGure 5: hiv/aiDs Tgt pfm, adg t 1990 d att 2000 b s
aco ll dvloping couni, ho g wih h
g numb of couni on ck fo chiving
hm (in od ing wih h high) w, child
moli, gnd uli nd pov. tho g
wih h fw numb of couni on ck (in
od ing wih h low) mnl moli,
HIV/aIDs nd hung. Howv, hi mu of pog
on HIV/aIDs uing h 1990 blin i milding, givn
h pid dclin in h 1990 nd ubun
impovmn, pcill ov h p dcd.
hiv/Aids AlternAtive bAseline
Whil h MDG hv numb of mhodologicl
hocoming, h blin of 1990 i picull
poblmic fo muing couni pfomnc on
h HIV/aIDs g. I ld o mimch of iming
bwn HIV/aIDs pvlnc nd nd h
globl pon o h pidmic. Pu diffnl, h
pog of mn couni in m of hling nd
hn ving h aIDs pidmic duing h 2000 i
mkd b h ploion in pvlnc duing h
1990 (i.. bfo h Millnnium Dclion w
dopd).
Conin wih h foml MDG cking mhodolog,
h MDG Pog Ind u h 1990 blin fo
muing pog in hling HIV/aIDs. Howv, in
od o gug pfomnc on h HIV/aIDs g
mo fil nd ccul, ONe h undkn
ddiionl nli ju fo ub-shn aficn
couni, dploing n lniv blin of 2000.
Uing hi ppoch, h picu fo h pfomnc of
ub-shn aficn couni i mkbl diffn.
Bwn 2000 nd 2013, 31 couni ducd hi
HIV/aIDs pvlnc (o hld hm conn)
which, infomll, would indic 'on ck'
pfomnc.12 Compd wih h Ind, which u
h 1990 blin, hi i mio oppoi wih 31
couni clifid 'off ck' o hl h id of
HIV/aIDs.
In m of indico-wid nd, ub-shn afic
vg co on h HIV/aIDs g would b 0.74
(wih 2000 blin), oppod o i vg MDG
Pog Ind co of 0.26. thi illu h
dmic pog chivd ov h p dcd
hough vidnc-bd invmn b aficn nd
dono govnmn lik.
a doco pin in clinic in Mukono, Ugnd.
Innionl Dvlopmn aociion (IDa) uppo h
conibud o impovd hlh fo Ugndn wih gd
uppo o h hlh co. Ugnd h piond 'ciiznpo cd' in hlh c h communi lvl.
Phoo: an Hol/Wold Bnk
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Cildr i Madaascar ar
procd from malaria w
y slp udr a bd.
Poo: USAID
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27The 2013 DaTa RepoRT
FInAnCIng the FIght
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28 financing the fight
ltug rgrss n t Millnnium
Dvlmnt Gls (MDGs) is
imrving in numrus dvling
cuntris, tr is still muc t b dn
t mt t mbitius trgts. In tis
sctin, w sift frm glbl mintin f MDG
rfrmnc t lk scificll t finncing trnds in
sub-Srn afric. acclrting nd rinfrcing t
rgrss f sub-Srn africn cuntris ginst
t mbitius MDG trgts will invribl ruir mr
trgtd, fficint nd ffctiv ublic nd rivt
sctr invstmnts. ovr t nt tw-nd--lf
rs, ll rtis suld sk t mimis t
vilbilit f dmstic nd trnl rsurcs t
cut ts invstmnts, wit rticulr msis
n scling u lif-cnging rgrmms, suc scild immunistin nd t distributin f aIDS
mdicins. altug sm f ts ctivitis will b
dlivrd trug t ublic sctr nd trs will b
dlivrd trug rivt ctrs, bt will l n
ssntil rl in ling cuntris srint t t MDG
finis lin. at t sm tim, ll stkldrs must
sk t mimis t ffctivnss f rsurcs
lrd vilbl fr dvlmnt. Tis includs
srcing fr nd finding fficinc gins, riritising
igr-imct intrvntins nd imrving t
cllctin f inut, utut nd utcm dt.
Wil cknwldging t mrid surcs fr
dvlmnt finncing, tis rrt fcuss n trcking
ublic sctr rsurcs, rimril du t t vilbilit
f dt. First, gvrnmnt nditur nd fficil
dvlmnt ssistnc (oDa) dt is vilbl fr
nrl vr sub-Srn africn gvrnmnt vr t
st dcd. Scnd, ts invstmnts cn b
trckd n sctr-lvl bsis, wic llws fr t
lrtin f tntil rltinsis wit cuntris
rfrmnc ginst t MDG trgts. at t sm
tim, oNe rcgniss tt tr ts f rsurcs
cntribut significntl t dvlmnt utcms,
including mjr flws suc s rmittncs nd frign
dirct invstmnt (FDI). Rmittncs l finnc
incrsd usld invstmnts in lt nd
ductin srvics nd in businss strt-us, s wll
s imrvd nutritin utcms.1 Frign invstmnt
cn l t rmt cnmic grwt, mlmntrtunitis nd incrsd t rcits. all f ts
rsults v itr dirct r n indirct imct n
brdr dvlmnt utcms.
ovrll, rsurc flws witin, r cnnlld t,
sub-Srn africn cuntris v ldd vr t
st dcd. In 2000, dmstic nd dnr gvrnmnt
nditurs nd rivt rsurc flws ttlld
rimtl $105 billin. B 2011, t d grwn
mr tn fur-fld, rcing n stimtd $468
billin. T IMF rjcts tt dmstic nd rivt
rsurc vilbilit will cntinu t nd t fstc vr t cming rs, fulld b rbust
cnmic grwt nd grwing rivt sctr intrst.
Sub-Srn africn gvrnmnt nditurs
ccuntd fr rimtl 78% f ttl rsurc
vilbilit in 2011. Tis ws fllwd b oDa (9%), FDI
(8%) nd rmittncs (5%). Intrstingl, oDas sr f
vrll rsurc vilbilit s dclind sligtl vr
t st dcd (frm 11% in 2000) dsit nrl
fur-fld incrs in vlums, indicting tt tr
rsurcs r incrsing t fstr rt.
In t fllwing gs, oNe nlss sub-Srn
africn nd dnr gvrnmnt nditur trnds in
t lt, gricultur nd ductin sctrs, wic
cvr t mjrit f t MDG trgt sctrs (ct fr
wtr nd snittin). Mrvr, w m ts
istricl invstmnts ginst cuntris currnt MDG
rfrmnc sttus. Wil tis nlsis ds nt iml cusl rltinsi r s, it ds ttmt t idntif
tntil crrltiv rltinsis btwn ublic
invstmnt lvls vr t st dcd nd currnt
MDG rgrss. W ls discuss t imrtnc f
fiscl trnsrnc in gvrnmnt nditurs, nd f
id trnsrnc in oDa flws, in rdr t mimis t
ffctivnss f dvlmnt rsurcs.
FInAnCIng the FIght
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Figure 1: Sb-Sahaa Afca (SSA) rsc Flws, 200011
2.3 2.3 2.6
2.9
4.8
Surcs: IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs; oeCD DaC; Wrld Bnk Wrld Dvlmnt Indictrs
Nt: all dt is msurd in USD billins in currnt rics t cmr ll flws. africn gvrnmnt nditurs r clcultd b cnvrting gvrnmntnditur srs (msurd s rcntg f GDp) int bslut nditur stimts. oDa figurs clud dbt rlif. Rmittncs r dfind srcits msurd trug t blnc f mnts mtd. FDI is dfind s nt inflws msurd trug t blnc f mnts mtd. Tfllwing cuntris r cludd du t lck f dt fr sm flws: Smli, Sut Sudn nd Sudn.
u
SDBillionS
2000
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SSa Gvrnmnt enditurs Frign Dirct Invstmntofficil Dvlmnt assistnc Rmittncs
84
11.7
6.313
14.4
15.7
10.8
18.1
1321.8
10.1 23.6
17.3
18.1
25.2
20.2
13.6 31.0
22.1
27.237.6
24.3
36.4
39.8
23.2
32.7
39.5
24.8
26.641.8
23.9
38.9
87 84
114
136156
182
220
273 265
314
363
29The2013 DaTa RepoRT
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30 financing the fight
Gvrnmnt nditurs b sub-Srn africn
cuntris v ldd vr t st 12 rs,
udruling sinc 2000. altug nt ll f ts
rsurcs r snt n scil srvics, gvrnmnts
v md trug t africn Unin nd tr
multiltrl frums sris f finncil
cmmitmnts in t st dcd rltd t svrl
MDG-rltd sctrs. In 2000, sub-Srn africn
nd tr gvrnmnts dtd t Dkr Frmwrk
fr actin wrb t cmmittd t llct ublic
snding lvls uivlnt t 7% f GDp nnull t t
ductin sctr b 2005, nd 9% f GDp b 2010. 2
In 2001, africn ldrs dtd t abuj Dclrtin
trb cmmitting t llct 15% f ttl
gvrnmnt nditurs t lt. Fiv rs ltr,
t ls cmmittd t rvid univrsl lt-crccss. In 2003, africn ldrs dtd t Mut
Dclrtin. Trug tis grmnt, t cmmittd
t llct 10% f ttl gvrnmnt nditurs t
rmt gricultur nd rurl dvlmnt b 2008
(s sit fr mr dtils n ts tr
cmmitmnts). Cllctivl, ts ig-lvl
cmmitmnts cvr t MDGs rltd t trm
vrt, ungr, ductin, gndr ulit,3 cild
mrtlit, mtrnl mrtl it, nd hIV/aIDS,
tubrculsis nd mlri. as rsult, wtr is t nl
cr MDG tt ds nt v cncrt gvrnmnt
snding cmmitmnt.
Ts africn cmmitmnts r criticl fr incrsing
surt fr vitl scil sctrs, but t v ls
risd numbr f imrtnt cnsidrtins. First, t
n-siz-fits-ll rc ds nt ncssril rflct
cuntr-scific nds nd liticl dnmics. Fr
ml, gvrnmnts m nt wis t llct 10% f
dmstic nditurs t gricultur if tir
cnmis nd lbur frc r nt cncntrtd intt sctr. In tr css, t Mut gricultur
trgt m b insufficint fr ts ntins wit vr
ig rurl vrt rts nd v dndnc n
gricultur. additinll, ts ts f untittiv
snding cmmitmnts culd v unintndd
cnsuncs in trms f incntivising infficint r
inffctiv rgrmms (.g. rgrssiv, cstl nd
crrutin-rn surt rgrmms) r incntivising
t ttinmnt f untittiv trgts vr t ulit
f srvics dlivrd. Scnd, ts MDG-rltd
nditur cmmitmnts culd crwd ut ublic
invstmnts in tr africn Unin ririt rs nt
licitl mntind s MDG trgts, suc s
infrstructur (rticulrl wr nd trnsrttin).
argubl, ts ts f invstmnts culd ls
indirctl rvid sitiv imct n vrt, lt,
nd ductin utcms trug grtr ccss t
bsic srvics nd cnmic rtunitis. Trfr,
t africn Unin lt nd gricultur dlin
nditur trgts suld b rcd wit
rrit cutin. at t sm tim, sinc trrsnt clr cmmitmnts b africn ldrs, it is
rrit t trck gvrnmnts imlmnttin
rfrmnc until nw r diffrnt trgts r grd.
DOMeStIC eXPenDItUReS
SUB-SAhARAn AFRICAn COUntRIeS
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31The2013 DaTa RepoRT
AfricAn commitments to sectorAl spending
Sc Am Ya Adpd Pld Dals
hal t Abuja Dclaraio4 2001 hads of Sas of [ Africa Uio]
pld o s a ar of allocai a
las 15% of aual bud o
improvm of al scor [] ad
a a adqua porio of is amou
is pu a disposal of naioal
Commissios/Coucils for fi
aais hIV/AIDS, tubrculosis ad or
rlad ifcious disass.
Mad followi 2000 MDg Summi,
Abuja Dclaraios aim is wo-fold: i)
o mpasis lack of Africa
domsic rsourcs for al, ad ii) o
ur door couris o fulfil ar of
0.7% of gnI for ODA.
Ariculur t Mapuo Dclaraio5 2003 ... w ar o adop soud policis for
ariculural ad rural dvlopm, ad
commi ourslvs o allocai a las
10% of aioal budary rsourcs for
ir implmaio wii fiv yars.
hads of Sa also commid o sk
6% aual ariculural row by 2008.
educaio t Dakar Framwork for Acio6 2000 govrms sould sur a a las
7% of gDP is allocad o ducaio
wii fiv yars ad 9% wii yars.
164 couris lobally sid o,
icludi all sub-Saara Africa
couris (xcp Somalia ad Suda).
31The 2013 DaTa RepoRT
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7.1 7.1 7.1 10.3
12.8 14.617.5
22.125.9 26.4
29.635.0 35.1
36.138.1 40.2
23.9
22.5
21.321.220.2
17.3
13.515.2
11.1
9.9
8.87.6
6.8
5.65.95.6
Surcs: Wrld hlt orgnistin, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins
Nt: all dt is msurd in USD billins in currnt rics. Figurs fr 201115 r rjctins bsd n t ssumtin tt currnt gvrnmnt ltnditur lvls (s rrtin f ttl gvrnmnt nditur) v itr rmind, r will rmin, cnstnt. Tis dt rrsnts cllctiv muntscrss t 44 sub-Srn africn cuntris mind. In css wr cuntr s cdd its abuj cmmitmnt in n givn r, t dficit is trtds zr.
2000
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 0 1 1 2012 2013 2014 2015
uSDBillionS
abuj Cmmitmnt DficitSSa Gvrnmnt hlt enditurs
32 financing the fight
HeAltH
Sinc t abuj cmmitmnts wr md in 2001,
gvrnmnts n t wl v flln fr srt f
mting tir gl f snding 15% f ttl gvrnmnt
nditurs n lt. Cllctivl, n stimtd $102
billin in dditinl rsurcs wuld v bn
dld fr lif-sving rgrmms if sub-Srn
africn gvrnmnts d mt tir cmmitmnts
vr r btwn 2001 nd 2010.7 T igligt t
ug scl f t gvrnmnt nditur dficit,
cnsidr tt dnr lt ssistnc fr sub-Srn
afric ttlld nrl $46 billin btwn 2001 nd
2010, lss tn lf f t cumultiv abuj
nditur dficit vr t sm rid.8
prgrss in mting cmmitmnts s bn unvn
crss cuntris. oNe nlsd t tnt t wic
cuntris cnsistntl mt tir abuj cmmitmnts
vr r, b finding t vrg rrtinl dficit
crss t rid 200110. B tis msur, Rwnd
nd Mlwi cnsistntl cdd, n vrg, t
rrtin f snding ruird t mt t
cmmitmnt, nd Btswn ws trml cls,
mting n vrg 99.9% f t cmmitmnt.9
hwvr, svrl tr cuntris v fild t mt, n
vrg, vn lf f t cmmitmnt: eritr, Guin,
Guin-Bissu, Rublic f Cng, Ct dIvir,
Figure 2: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Halh epds (Acal vss Abja Cmmms), 200015
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Val f Cmlav
Abja Dfc (uSD Blls),
2001-10
Surcs: Wrld hltorgnistin, IMF Wrldecnmic outlk Dtbsnd oNe clcultins
Nt: T fllwing cuntrisr cludd du t lck fdt vilbilit n ltnditurs: Djibuti,Muritni, Smli, SutSudn, Sudn nd Zimbbw.T cumultiv abuj dficitclumn sws t vlus inbslut dllr trms (bsdn currnt rics) f tdditinl finncing tt wuldv bn md vilbl frlt d cuntris mt tirabuj cmmitmnt in vr
r btwn 2001 nd 2010,cunting n css wncuntris cdd tircmmitmnts s zr (rtrtn ngtiv dficit). Frmr dtils, s tmtdlg sctin.
RwndMlwi
Btswn
Burkin FsZmbi
MzmbiuMdgscr
LibriGn
TnzniS Tm nd prnci
NmibiNigr
Mlietii
Sut africTg
Gmbi
SnglC VrdUgnd
BninSwzilnd
Cntrl africn RublicCmrs
Lsteutril Guin
BurundiMuritius
ScllsCd
Cng, DRCKn
Cmrn
Sirr LnNigrianglGbn
Ct dIvirCng, Rublic f
Guin-BissuGuineritr
% f Abja Cmmm M
0.0420.0650.388
0.1420.1540.3740.1680.0371.0060.8840.0160.6700.2700.5271.160
25.7330.134
0.059
0.8850.1700.8580.4930.4060.127
0.0430.3651.7620.2411.0260.2251.0831.0224.2792.233
0.27130.81214.820
1.9903.4081.7370.143
0.8380.645
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
33The2013 DaTa RepoRT
Figure 3: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Halh epds, 200110 Ava (% f Abja Cmmm)
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21%
38%
42%
33%
30%
38%
oN TRaCK oFF TRaCKpaRTIaLLy oN TRaCK
Surcs: Wrld hlt orgnistin, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins
Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilit n lt nditurs, t fllwing cuntris r cludd: Djibuti, Muritni, Smli, Sut Sudn, Sudn ndZimbbw. Fr mr dtils, s t mtdlg sctin.
AVerAgeABujASPenDingDeFiCit
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0ChILD MoRTaLITy MaTeRNaL MoRTaLITy
34 financing the fight
Gbn, angl, Nigri, Sirr Ln nd Cmrn.
Trug 2010, Nigri ws t lrgst lggrd in
bslut trms wit cumultiv snding dficit f
rugl $31 billin. Sut afric nd angl ls dlrg cumultiv dficits, f rimtl $26 billin
nd $15 billin rsctivl.
on vrg, sub-Srn africn cuntris tt v
riritisd dmstic nditurs n lt vr t
st dcd r dmnstrting bttr MDG lt
utcms, ll tr tings bing ul rticulrl n
cild nd mtrnl mrtlit.10 B illustrtin, cuntris
tt r n trck t civ tir cild mrtlit
rductin trgts r ls ts mking grtr
rgrss twrds tir abuj snding trgts (wit n
vrg dficit f nl 21% btwn 2001 nd 2010).11
Tis cmrs wit n vrg lt snding dficit
f 42% fr ts cuntris tt r ff trck t mt
tir cild mrtlit rductin trgts.
If sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts mintin isting
lt snding lvls (msurd s sr f ttl
nditurs), tn rltd invstmnts wuld ttl n
stimtd $114 billin btwn 2013 nd 2015. hwvr,
n dditinl $68 billin wuld b cnnlld fr
lif-sving lt nditurs if ts sm
gvrnmnts mt tir isting abuj cmmitmnts
during t sm tim rid. angl, Nigri nd Sutafric ccunt fr sligtl mr tn tw-tirds f tis
rjctd dficit.12 Clrl, incrsing finncing in lin
wit t abuj cmmitmnts, if dlivrd ffctivl
nd ccuntbl, culd rvid mjr bst t
MDG-rltd lt utcms in sub-Srn afric.
Figure 4: Ava Abja Spd Cmmm Dfc (200110) by MDg Pfmac Sas
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35The2013 DaTa RepoRT
tis yar niria scord 3.0 o MDg Prorss
Idx a improvm o is scor i 2010 (1.5), ad
y rvali a i las far bid may or
sub-Saara Africa couris i a umbr of crucial
aras. niria is o rack o m oly a sil cor
MDg ar by 2015 (ur). I is parially o rack o
m dr qualiy, cild moraliy, maral
moraliy ad war ars, ad worryily off rack
o povry, ducaio ad hIV/AIDS ars. 13 tis
is dspi subsaial fiacial rsourcs availabl
o ovrm, wi oil rvus amoui o
aroud $52 billio i 2011.14 Wi is vry lar
populaio, nirias sa of dvlopm as a u
impac o rioal, v lobal, prorss. As a
illusraio, wil i is maki parial prorss i rms
of rduci is cild moraliy ras, i 2011 r wr
756,000 udr-fiv das. tis alo accous for 11%
of udr-fiv das worldwid.15 Similarly, niriaaccous for ovr 30% of malaria das lobally. 16
Wi niria parially o rack for al-rlad oals
suc as cild moraliy ad maral moraliy,
fulfilli is al spdi commim rou
ffciv ad accouabl prorammi is ow mor
sraically impora a vr abli i o build
o radual prorss us far, acclra is
implmaio ad spri owards MDg fiis li
i 2015.
If curr spdi lvls (bud allocaios as a
sar of oal bud) wr carrid forward, niria isprojcd o av a cumulaiv Abuja commim
dfici of $22.5 billio bw 2013 ad 2015. I or
words, if niria m is Abuja commim o spd
15% of is oal bud o al i 2013, 2014 ad
2015, r would b a addiioal $22.5 billio
availabl for ky ivsms i al.
WHAt could $22.5 billion pAy for?$1.63 (j 7% h a a) w a 163 -a -a
(itn) aa aaa ou o covr idividually ir populaio of niriafor r yars.17 Malaria is a r isk for 100% of nirias populaio.18 Accordi o a 2010 survy, 28% of
populaio ad accss o a Itn.19 tr ar a simad 50.6 millio malaria cass, wi 207,000 das
pr yar i niria.20 If v a small porio of xra Abuja al fudi was usd o sur a vry
sil you cild i niria was covrd by a Itn, sudis av foud is could ovr im rduc
nirias udr-fiv moraliy by 23%. If os ais wr ralisd immdialy, a 23% rducio s
aually ovr a r-yar priod i niria would sav rouly 522,000 livs.21
$936 (j 4% h a a) v h h a v
na wh h va: paval (o fi aus, dipria, woopi cou, hpaiis B ad
miiis), pumococcal (o fi pumoia) ad roavirus (o fi diarroal disas). Ovr im, is
could sav mor a 900,000 livs.22
$3.42 (j 15% h a a) a v v wh HiV na aroud 3.4 millio popl o rciv airroviral ram (ARt) for AIDS across wol
r-yar priod.23
tHe impAct of nigeriAs HeAltH spending deficit
WHAt Would be tHe impAct on mdgperformAnce?By mi is Abuja commim o al spdi, niria could dramaically rduc is cild moraliy
ra allowi i o rac is rlad MDg ars ovr im, ad radically dimiis dvasai impac
of hIV/AIDS by providi ARVs for vry prso wo ds ram. Ad r would sill b mor a
$16 billio of addiioal fuds availabl for or public al proramms.
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28%
52%
61%
55%
38%
55%
49%
87%
oN TRaCK oFF TRaCK INSUFFICIeNT DaTapaRTIaLLy oN TRaCK
A
VerAgeMAPutoSPenDingDeF
iCit
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Surcs: RSaKSS, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins
Nt: Nt vr sub-Srn africn cuntr is rrsntd r, du t lck f dt vilbilit n gricultur nditurs. Fr cuntris wit ngtivvrg rrtinl dficit (Burkin Fs, etii, Guin, Mli, Nigr nd Sngl), ts ngtiv vlus wr trtd s zr.
exTReMe poVeRTy hUNGeR
36 financing the fight
Figure 5: Ava Map Spd Cmmm Dfc (2003-09), by MDg Pfmac Sas
Agriculture
avilbl dt suggsts tt sub-Srn africn
gvrnmnts r filing t mt tir Mut
cmmitmnts t snd 10% f ttl gvrnmnt
nditurs n gricultur. accurtl ssssing
gvrnmnts rfrmnc ginst tir Mut
nditur cmmitmnts is difficult, du t unclr
dfinitins but wt is includd in gricultur
snding24 nd lck f dt vilbilit crss
mn cuntris. Du t ts limittins,
rsnbl dgr f cutin suld b usd wn
intrrting rsults nd trnds. Tis sctin
nlss dt frm t Rginl Strtgic
anlsis nd Knwldg Surt Sstm
(RSaKSS), wic includs vrg sr stimts
fr gricultur nditur fr 38 sub-Srn
africn gvrnmnts during t
200309 rid.25
accrding t vilbl RSaKSS dt, si sub-Srn
africn cuntris wr mting tir Mut
cmmitmnts n vrg vr 200309: Burkin Fs
(19.2%), Nigr (15.5%), etii (13.7%), Guin (13.7%),
Sngl (12.1%) nd Mli (11.8%); s Figur 6. In
rrtinl trms, t biggst lggrds wr t
Sclls, Rublic f Cng, Dmcrtic Rublic f
Cng, Guin-Bissu, Ct dIvir, Ugnd nd Sirr
Ln, wic ll fild t mt vn 30% f t
cmmitmnt n vrg. Cllctivl, sub-Srn
africn gvrnmnts tt fild t mt tir Mut
cmmitmnts d n stimtd cumultiv
nditur dficit f rimtl $42 billin
btwn 2003 nd 2009.26 angl nd Nigri
ccuntd fr vr lf f tis munt, wit stimtd
cumultiv Mut nditur srtflls f $7.9 billin
nd $15.9 billin rsctivl.
on vrg, sub-Srn africn cuntris tt v
riritisd dmstic nditurs n gricultur nd
rurl dvlmnt vr t st dcd rdmnstrting bttr MDG utcms n trm
vrt nd ungr (i.. undrnurismnt), ll tr
tings bing ul. B illustrtin, cuntris tt r
currntl n trck t civ tir vrt trgts d
n vrg Mut snding dficit f 28%, wrs
cuntris tt r currntl ff trck d n vrg
Mut snding dficit f 61%. Similrl, cuntris
tt r currntl n trck t civ tir ungr
trgts d n vrg Mut snding dficit f
38%, wrs cuntris tt r ff trck d n
vrg Mut snding dficit f 49%.
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Surcs: RSaKSS, IMF Wrldecnmic outlk Dtbs ndoNe clcultins
Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilitn gricultur nditurs, ntvr sub-Srn africn cuntris rrsntd bv. Tcumultiv Mut dficit clumnsws t stimtd vlus inbslut dllr trms (bsd ncurrnt rics) f t dditinlfinncing tt wuld v bnmd vilbl fr gricultur d
cuntris mt tir Mutcmmitmnt in vr r btwn2003 nd 2009. Ts rstimts, drivd frm t vrgsrs f ttl nditur llctdt gricultur trugut t ntirrid 200309 fr c cuntr.Sinc w d nt v ctul figursfr nnul gricultur snding, wcnnt clcult t ctul dficitcrss tis rid.
Burkin Fs
Nigr
Guin
etiiSngl
Mli
Mlwi
Gn
Zimbbw
Cd
Mdgscr
Nmibi
Bnin
Zmbi
Tnzni
Libri
Gmbi
TgKn
Burundi
Swzilnd
Mzmbiu
S Tm nd prnci
angl
Lst
Cmrn
Rwnd
Nigri
Muritius
Btswn
Cntrl africn Rublic
Sirr Ln
UgndCt dIvir
Guin-Bissu
Cng, DRC
Cng, Rublic f
Sclls
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.0000.000
0.000
0.016
0.411
0.055
0.189
0.267
0.472
0.310
0.761
1.241
0.055
0.051
0.1702.185
0.158
0.359
0.791
0.024
7.901
0.313
1.281
0.341
15.937
0.855
1.885
0.112
0.163
1.0842.011
0.087
1.182
1.225
0.230
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Val f esmad CmlavMap Dfc (uSD Blls),
200309 % f Map Cmmm M
37The2013 DaTa RepoRT
Figure 6: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Acl epds, 200309 Ava esmas (% f Map Cmmm)
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38 financing the fight
tr is o fully comprsiv, up-o-da daas for ariculural xpdiurs.
Parly is is du o fac a r is o ard Africa Uio dfiiio as o
wa sould b icludd; as suc, i is difficul o dvlop ad maiai a cosis
s of daa ovr im. howvr, for is rc rpor A growi Opporuiy:
Masuri Ivsms i Africa Ariculur, One assmbld w daa, icludi
2011 xpdiur simas for 19 sub-Saara Africa couris, ard from
rlad miisry docums ad irviws wi miisry officials.27
Accordi o is 2011 daa, oly four couris (ou of 19 assssd) ar currly
mi ir Mapuo commims: eiopia (19.7%), nir (18.9%), Malawi (12.6%)
ad Cap Vrd (10.1%). two addiioal couris ar vry clos o mi ir
commims Sal (9.5%) ad Sirra Lo (8.9%). howvr, sv couris
ar faili o m v alf of ir xpdiur ars. ts laards iclud
gaa (1.1%), niria (1.7%), Libria (1.4%), Bi (2.3%), Burkia Faso (2.5%), too
(3.0%) ad Burudi (3.2%). t 15 couris lai o ir Mapuo commims
ad a simad collciv xpdiur dfici of arly $4.4 billio i 2011 wic is
quival o mor a r ims amou of oal door ariculur assisac
o s sam couris i 2011.
giv widsprad cocraio of xrm povry i rural aras, sub-Saara
Africa ovrms sould b icrasi ir focus o ariculur ad rural
dvlopm ivsms. Alarmily, One foud a i couris (ou of 19
xamid) acually rducd ir ariculur xpdiurs i 2011 compard wi
200309 priod. Wil som of s cas may b driv by diffrcs i
daa modolois mployd by RSAKSS ad One, ovrall rd dos o
idica widsprad, or rowi, Africa ladrsip o ariculural dvlopm.
Figure 7: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm Acl epds, 2011 (Vss Map Cmmms)
ones Agriculture AccountAbility report
Surc: oNe (2013) a Grwingortunit: Msuring Invstmnts inafricn agricultur, .19
Nt: Tis dtst ws ssmbld boNe bsd n africn gvrnmntdcumnts nd intrviws wit fficils.Tis nlsis fcusd n ts cuntris
wit vttd nd ndrsd griculturinvstmnt lns. oNe ws unbl tcllct dtild infrmtin fr trcuntris. as rsult, t ggrgtdficit figurs r likl t significntlundrstimt t ttl Mutnditur dficit fr ll sub-Srnafricn cuntris.
%o
FtotA
lgoVernMentexPenDitureS
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
ethIOPIA
nIgeR
MALAW
I
CAPe
VeRDe
Seneg
AL
SIeRRA
LeO
ne
MALI
tAnzA
nIA
gAMBIA
RWAnDA
KenyA
UgAnDA
BURU
nDI
tOgO
BURKInAFA
SO
BenIn
LIBeRIA
nIgeRIA
ghAn
A
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5.5
11.2 10.5 10.814.8
19.723.9 26.0
29.432.7 33.8
43.3 49.150.0 52.8
56.260.2
5.8 6.1
7.9
9.1
10.7
23.0
27.4
32.4 30.0
33.0
38.1 39.7
42.2
44.9
48.0
2000
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2 0 01 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5
uSDBillionS
Surcs: UNeSCo, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins
Nt: all dt is msurd in USD billins in currnt rics. Figurs fr 201115 r rjctins bsd n t ssumtin tt currnt gvrnmnt lt nditur lvls (s rrtin f GDp) v itr rmind, r will rmin,cnstnt. Gvrnmnt dt n ductin snding is mr limitd tn fr tr sctrs, suc s lt. Svrl sub-Srn africn cuntris including Guin-Bissu, Nigri nd S Tm nd prnci d nt v n dt vilblfr t rid btwn 2000 nd 2010. Fr tr cuntris, in css wr individul r bsrvtins r missing, w ssum tt rvius ductin nditur srs wr ld cnstnt (msurd s rcntg f GDp). Tis dtrrsnts cllctiv munts crss t 41 sub-Srn africn cuntris mind. hwvr, in css wr cuntr s cdd its Dkr cmmitmnt in n givn r, w v trtd tis s zr. T msur t cmmitmntdficit, oNe lid trgt f 7% f GDp btwn 2000 nd 2005, nd 9% f GDp frm 2006 nwrds.
Dkr Cmmitmnt DficitSSa Gvrnmnt eductin enditurs
39The 2013 DaTa RepoRT
educAtion
T Dkr Frmwrk fr actin cmmittd africn
(nd tr) gvrnmnts t llcting ublic snding
lvls uivlnt t 7% f GDp (rtr tn ut f ttl
nditurs) nnull t t ductin sctr b
2005, nd 9% f GDp b 2010. T dt, nl n
sub-Srn africn cuntr (Lst) s mt its
ductin snding trgts, bsd n vilbl dt.
Cumultivl, n stimtd $191 billin in dditinl
rsurcs culd v bn dld fr ductin if
sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts d mt tir wn
liticl cmmitmnts btwn 2000 nd 2010.28
Sut afric nd angl ccunt fr lmst lf f t
cllctiv dficit ($69 billin nd $24 billin
rsctivl). otr significnt lggrds includ
Cmrn ($9.2 billin), eutril Guin ($7.0 billin),
Ct dIvir ($6.9 billin), etii ($6.7 billin) nd
Zmbi ($6.3 billin). Nigri ds nt rrt ublic
ductin snding lvls (msurd s rcntg
f GDp).
oNe ls nlsd t tnt t wic cuntris
cnsistntl mt tir Dkr cmmitmnts vr
Figure 8: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm edca epds (Acal vss Daka Cmmms), 200015
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Lst
Btswn
Swzilnd
C VrdNmibi
Kn
Gn
Tnzni
Sut afric
Rwnd
Sclls
Cmrs
Mzmbiu
Mlwi
Ct dIvir
Sngl
etii
Sirr Ln
BurundiBurkin Fs
Mli
Tg
Bnin
Gbn
Muritius
Ugnd
Nigr
Mdgscr
Cmrn
eritr
angl
Cng, Rublic f
Guin
LibriCd
Zimbbw
Cng, DRC
Gmbi
Zmbi
Cntrl africn Rublic
eutril Guin
Surcs: UNeSCo, IMF Wrldecnmic outlk Dtbs ndoNe clcultins
Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilitn ductin nditurs, tfllwing cuntris r cludd:Djibuti, Guin-Bissu, Muritni,Nigri, S Tm nd prnci,Smli, Sut Sudn nd Sudn.Lst (rrsntd in blu) mt,nd indd cdd, t Dkrcmmitmnt n vrg btwn2000 nd 2010. T clumncumultiv Dkr dficit sws tvlus in bslut dllr trms(bsd n currnt rics) f t
dditinl finncing tt wuld vbn md vilbl fr ductind cuntris mt tir Dkrcmmitmnt in vr r btwn2001 nd 2010, cunting n csswn cuntris cdd tircmmitmnts s zr (rtr tn ngtiv dficit). Fr mr dtils,s t mtdlg sctin. Tmsur rgrss ginst t Dkrcmmitmnt, oNe lid trgtf 7% f GDp btwn 2000 nd2005, nd 9% f GDp frm 2006nwrds.
0.000
0.578
0.291
0.2181.223
3.626
5.065
1.567
69.076
1.186
0.256
0.110
2.053
1.367
6.946
3.486
6.670
0.835
0.4941.888
2.683
1.033
2.061
4.281
3.385
5.238
1.846
3.360
9.225
0.730
24.263
3.847
2.260
0.2243.365
0.483
0.853
0.464
6.310
1.064
7.016
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Val f esmad CmlavDaka Dfc (uSD Blls),
200010 % f Daka Cmmm M
40 financing the fight
Figure 9: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm edca epds, 200010 Ava (% f Daka Cmmm)
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32%
48%50%
71%
41%
51%48%
84%
Surcs: UNeSCo, IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs nd oNe clcultins
Nt: Du t lck f dt vilbilit n ductin nditurs, t fllwing cuntris r cludd: Djibuti, Guin-Bissu, Muritni, Nigri, STm nd prnci, Smli, Sut Sudn nd Sudn. Fr Lst, wic s ngtiv vrg rrtinl dficit, tis ws trtd s zr. Fr mrdtils, s t mtdlg sctin.
AVerAgeDAkArSPenDingDe
FiCit
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
eDUCaTIoN GeNDeR eqUaLITy
oN TRaCK oFF TRaCK INSUFFICIeNT DaTapaRTIaLLy oN TRaCK
41The2013 DaTa RepoRT
r, b finding t vrg rrtinl dficit
crss t rid 200010. B tis msur,
Lst ws nc gin t nl cuntr t
cnsistntl cd, n vrg, t rrtin f
snding ruird t mt t cmmitmnt, tug
Btswn ws trml cls, mting n vrg
99% f t cmmitmnt vr t rid. B
cntrst, t fllwing cuntris wr filing, n
vrg, t mt vn 30% f t cmmitmnt vrtis rid: eutril Guin, Cntrl africn
Rublic, Zmbi, Gmbi, Dmcrtic Rublic f
Cng, Zimbbw nd Cd.
on vrg, sub-Srn africn cuntris tt
lcd grtr ririt n ublic ductin
invstmnts btwn 2000 nd 2010 r
dmnstrting bttr MDG utcms. B illustrtin,
cuntris tt r n trck t civ tir
rsctiv rimr ductin cmltin rt
trgts b 2015 d n vrg Dkr snding
trgt dficit f 32% btwn 2000 nd 2010.29 Tiscmrs wit n vrg ductin snding
dficit f 50% fr ts cuntris tt r ff trck
t mt tir rimr ductin trgts. T
rltinsi btwn rfrmnc twrds t
Dkr cmmitmnts nd rgrss twrds gndr
ulit MDG utcms is similr, tug nt uit
s strng.
If sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts mintin
isting ductin snding lvls (msurd s
sr f GDp), tn rltd invstmnts wuld ttl
rjctd $169 billin btwn 2013 nd 2015. andditinl $135 billin wuld b cnnlld fr
ductin srvics if ts sm gvrnmnts mt
tir isting Dkr cmmitmnts during t sm
rid. Clrl, mking incrsd rgrss n
snding twrds ts cmmitmnts, if dlivrd
ffctivl nd ccuntbl, culd rvid mjr
bst t MDG-rltd ductin utcms in
sub-Srn afric.
Figure 10: Ava Daka Spd Cmmm Dfc (2000-10), by MDg Pfmac Sas
Wil gvrnmnts in t rgin v md clr
ductin nditur cmmitmnts, t rivt
sctr nd fit-bsd rgnistins ls l n
imrtnt nd rminnt rl in t rvisin f
lw-cst ductin srvics. Mrvr, in mn
sub-Srn africn cuntris, t rivt sctrs
sr f ductin nrlmnt s incrsd
significntl vr rcnt rs.30 Trfr, ur
nlsis ds nt ctur t cmlt ictur f
ntinl invstmnts in ductin srvics. Givn
tis, sm rrit cutin suld b tkn wn
intrrting t rltinsi btwn istricl
ductin nditur trnds nd rltd
MDG utcms.
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42 financing the fight
Aolas scor o MDg Prorss Idx is jus 2.5,
rvali slow prorss ad placi i oly jus abov
rsold for laard couris. ev mor
disappoii, is scor as barly cad ovr
las r yars. Aola is off rack o alf of cor
MDg ars, icludi primary ducaio ad drqualiy i scool. I 2010 ( mos rc yar of
daa), oly 47% of scool-ad cildr compld
primary ducaio.31 Wil is is up from 34% ra
i 1991, prorss is owr ar fas ou o
aciv MDg ar of uivrsal primary
complio, ad almos alf a millio cildr
coiu o miss ou o scool irly.32 O
impora par of problm is aci crisis
a Aola facs, xacrbad by fac a
acr raii roud o a al duri dcads of
civil war. Wil a lar scool-buildi proramm
ba afr war, may of s scools coiuo lack adqua saff, ad i is simad a up o
40% of Aolas acrs ar o proprly qualifid.33
Aola as som of is commim dficis
of all sub-Saara Africa couris xamid i
is rpor. Ovr pas dcad, Aola as o b
clos o mi ay of is proporioal spdi
commims i al, ariculur or ducaio. For
illusraio, w xami ducaio. If curr spdi
lvls (bud allocaios as a sar of gDP) wr
carrid forward, Aola is projcd o av a
cumulaiv Dakar commim dfici of $21.6 billiobw 2013 ad 2015. I or words, if Aola m
is Dakar commim o spd 9% of is gDP o
ducaio i 2013, 2014 ad 2015, r would b a
addiioal $21.6 billio availabl for ky ivsms
i ducaio.
tHe impAct of AngolAs educAtion spending deficit
WHAt could $21.6 billion pAy for?$268 (j 1% h a) could pay for v Aa --h a a
h v a a a for wol priod 201315.34
$21.3 (h a 99%) could b usd o a v h qa a
a. Amo sub-Saara Africa couris wi a rlaivly i gDP pr capia, Aola as o of
lows public ducaio xpdiurs pr primary pupil. tis addiioal fiac could rais aual
xpdiur pr pupil mor a i-fold from jus $181 o $1,700, across wol r-yar priod,
payi for mor acrs, books, quipm ad cosrucio of br faciliis.35
For xampl, $1.8 of rmaii amou could a h aa 100,000 aa a
h ah for wol r yars mor a doubli oal umbr of primary scool
acrs i Aola.36 tis could alv avra pupil-acr raio, brii i dow o 23, ad abli
far mor ffciv aci.37
WHAt Would be tHe impAct on mdgperformAnce?Spdi v a fracio of oal Dakar commim ovr x r yars would fud qualiy
public primary ducaio rolm for vry cild i Aola mai a, if susaid, coury
could rac MDg ar of uivrsal primary ducaio wii a mar of yars.
Byod obvious bfis, ducaio as a u prov impac o dvlopm o avra, ac yar
of addiioal scooli raslas o a 10% icras i a prsos poial icom ad, a a aioal lvl,
lads o a 1% icras i aual gDP.38
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Trilblzr Lggrd
Surcs: IMF Wrld ecnmic outlk Dtbs, Wrld hlt orgnistin, RSaKSS, UNeSCo, Wrld Bnk,Wrld Dvlmnt Indictrs, nd oNe clcultins
Nt: onl 34 sub-Srn africn cuntris r mind r, du t limitd dt vilbilit n lt,gricultur nd ductin nditurs. Sinc w r nt mining t full tim rid fr gricultur nd tfigurs usd r stimts nl, cutin suld b tkn wn intrrting ts findings.
MDg Pss
id Scs
Burkin Fs
etii
Gn
Nigr
Sngl
Mzmbiu
Nmibi
Tnzni
Mli
Rwnd
Lst
Mlwi
Mdgscr
Btswn
Tg
Kn
Swzilnd
BninGuin
Gmbi
Burundi
Ugnd
Ct dIvir
Zmbi
Libri
Cd
Cmrn
Sirr Ln
Cntrl africn Rublic
Muritius
Sclls
Cng, DRCangl
Cng, Rublic f
5.0
5.5
5.5
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.5
2.5
6.0
6.0
2.0
5.5
3.0
2.0
3.5
2.0
2.0
5.04.0
5.0
1.5
5.5
2.0
3.5
3.5
1.5
3.5
2.5
2.5
2.0
3.0
0.52.5
1.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
% f tal epd
100
43The2013 DaTa RepoRT
Figure 11: Sb-Sahaa Afca gvm esmad Ava Spd Halh, edca ad Acl
(Cmbd) as a Pca f tal epd (200010), wh MDg Pss id Scs
sociAl sector spending
And oVerAll mdg progress
Wn lking t sub-Srn africn gvrnmnts
snding lvls n lt, ductin nd gricultur
cmbind vr t st dcd, tr is strng
crrltin btwn lvls f snding nd vrll
MDG rgrss. on vrg, cuntris tt v
llctd grtr cmbind sr f gvrnmnt
nditurs twrds ts tr sctrs vcivd significntl imrvd MDG-rltd
utcms. B illustrtin, sub-Srn africn MDG
trilblzrs cuntris wit n Ind scr f 5.0 r
grtr llct 39% f ttl gvrnmnt
nditurs, n vrg, twrds lt, gricultur
nd ductin tgtr. Burkin Fs s llctd
52% f gvrnmnt nditurs t ts tr
sctrs vr t st dcd. Nt surrisingl, it s
n MDG prgrss Ind scr f 5.0. etii is
ntr ml. Its MDG-rltd nditur sr
s vrgd rugl 44% nd it is currntl n trck
t civ t trm vrt, ungr, cildmrtlit nd mtrnl mrtlit MDGs. In cntrst,
MDG lggrds ts wit scr f 2.0 r lss
llct nl 29% f ttl gvrnmnt nditurs
in ts sctrs, n vrg.
In ligt f ts findings, gvrnmnts tt r