Public Opinion

David A. Hughes, Ph.D.

Auburn University at Montgomery

david.hughes@aum.edu

April 13, 2021

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Introduction

By the end of today’s meeting, students should recall thefollowing:

• The interplay between public opinions and public policy,

• The origins of public opinion and political attitudes, and

• The methods of gauging public opinion.

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Why does public opinion matter in government?

• Principles of “popularsovereignty,”“legitimacy.”

• Accountability

• Public opinion is acrucial “input” forpolicy-making

• Public opinion may affectthe type ofrepresentation peoplereceive

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What is public opinion?

• An amalgamation of individualpreferences or evaluations

• Could relate to policies orpoliticians

• Distinct from predispositions orideologies

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How do we measure public opinion?

• Random sampling

• Sample size

• Comes with a margin of error

• Can be biased by: Questionwording, sampling procedure,sample size, etc.

• Types of polling: Benchmark,tracking, push, focus groups,exit

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Sample size and margin of error

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Sample Size

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Example Polling from AL’s Presidential Election

Source: fivethirtyeight.com

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Where do Political Attitudes Come from?

• Socialization• Upbringing• Religion• Group Attachment• Income/Occupation• Education, etc.

• Party ID

• Elites

• Ideology

• Sociobiology?Edward O. Wilson

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Is There a Party in Your Genes?

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Conclusion: Does the “Tail Wag the Dog”?

• How much do politicians follow public opinion?

• How much does public opinion follow political elites?

• When may politicians “get away” with disobeying publicopinion?

• When must they toe the line?

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