david flaherty 303 861 8585 jd hayworth by 23 ......june!23,!2010! memorandum!! to:!...
TRANSCRIPT
!FOR!IMMEDIATE!RELEASE! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!June!24,!2010!INTERVIEWS!AND!QUESTIONS:!!! ! !!!!!!!!!!!DAVID!FLAHERTY!303"861"8585!!
JOHN!MCCAIN!LEADS!JD!HAYWORTH!BY!23!POINTS,!52%!TO!29%!!14%!FOR!ANOTHER!CANDIDATE,!5%!UNDECIDED!!
AMONG!LIKELY!ARIZONA!REPUBLICAN!PRIMARY!VOTERS!2012!GOP!BALLOT!TEST:!ROMNEY!29%,!PALIN!18%,!GINGRICH!16%,!
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N<,!7045,-!6&/)*',!3'?!24&77631!4,70)67!34,!*'2)0?,?!*'!6<*7!?&20%,'6!3)&'(!C*6<!3!%3/!&@!6<,!/&))*'(!4,(*&'7M! !N<*7!4,),37,9!7045,-!24&776317!3'?!/4,7,'636*&'!23'!1,!?&C')&3?,?! @4&%! &04! C,17*6,! 0'?,4! 6<,! K:045,-! $42<*5,7L! 631! 36!CCCM=3(,))3':6436,(*,7M2&%M! ! $'-! Z0,76*&'7! 4,(34?*'(! 6<*7! 7045,-! 7<&0)?! 1,!?*4,26,?!6&!A35*?!a)3<,46-!36!EYEVTQIVTFTF!&4!?@)3<,46-l%3(,))3'76436,(*,7M2&%M!!!About!Magellan!Data!and!Mapping!Strategies!Magellan! CEO! David! Flaherty! has! extensive! experience! applying! political! data! and!technology! gained! throughout! his! 18! year! career! at! the! Republican! National!Committee,! the!U.S.!House!of!Representatives,!and!public!affairs! firms!specializing! in!measuring! public! opinion.! The! Magellan! Strategies! team! has! extensive! experience!building! voter! registration! databases,! data! analysis,! demographic! analysis,! GIS!mapping! technology,! quantitative! live! and! automated! survey! research,! ! predictive!modeling,!and!redistricting! technology.! !Visit!our!website!at!MagellanStrategies.com!for!more!information!about!our!firm.!!!
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CoconinoMohave
Pima
ApacheNavajo
Gila
Yavapai
Maricopa
PinalYuma
Cochise
La Paz
Graham
Santa Cruz
Greenlee
Arizona Polling RegionsCongressional District
µMagellan Data and Mapping Strategies
1685 Boxelder St., Suite 300Louisville, CO 80027
(303) 861-8585www.MagellanStrategies.com
!June!23,!2010!MEMORANDUM!!TO:! INTERESTED!PARTIES!FR:! DAVID!FLAHERTY!! MAGELLAN!DATA!AND!MAPPING!STRATEGIES!RE:! ARIZONA!REPUBLICAN!PRIMARY!SURVEY!TOPLINE!RESULTS!________________________________________________________________________________________________!=3(,))3'!A363!3'?!=3//*'(!:6436,(*,7!34,!/),37,?!6&!/4,7,'6!6<,!6&/)*',!4,70)67!&@!3!I9IEHd!306&?*3)!7045,-!&@!)*+,)-!.,/01)*23'!/4*%34-!5&6,47!*'!6<,!7636,!&@!$4*8&'3M!!N<,!*'6,45*,C7!C,4,!2&'?026,?!;0',!DD'?9!DYIYM!!N<*7!7045,-!<37!3!%34(*'!&@!,44&4!&@!UcV!DMHYG!36!6<,!HF!/,42,'6!2&'@*?,'2,!*'6,453)M!!N<*7!7045,-!C37!C,*(<6,?!137,?!0/&'!5&6,4!604'&06!?,%&(43/<*27!@4&%!6<,!DYYT9!DYYQ9!DYYJ!3'?!DYYD!.,/01)*23'!/4*%34-!,),26*&'7M!!!NIM!$4,!-&0!4,(*76,4,?!6&!5&6,!37!3!.,/01)*23'9!3!A,%&2436!&4!3'!*'?,/,'?,'6!5&6,4m!!.,/01)*23'MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!IYYG!!NDM!B&C!)*+,)-!34,!-&0!6&!5&6,!*'!6<,!$0(076!/4*%34-!,),26*&'!6&!2<&&7,!3!.,/01)*23'!'&%*',,!@&4!^&5,4'&4!3'?!6<,!X:!:,'36,m!!eh64,%,)-!i*+,)-!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!THG!P,4-!i*+,)-!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!TG!:&%,C<36!i*+,)-!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!EG!!N<*'+*'(!'&C!31&06!/,&/),!326*5,!*'!(&5,4'%,'6nnnnnn!!NEM!A&!-&0!<35,!3!@35&431),!&4!0'@35&431),!&/*'*&'!&@!;&<'!=2>3*'m!!a35&431),!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!QYG!X'@35&431),!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!EWG!d&!_/*'*&'!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!EG!!d3%,![A!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!IYYG!B34?!d3%,![A!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!HWG!d,5,4!B,34?!_@!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!YG!!
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----
---
MO
DE
RAT
E -
----
----
LIB
ERAL
---
----
--
CO
NS
ERVE
--
----
--
MO
DE
RAT
E
----
----
-
LIB
ERAL
---
----
--
TOTA
L
1139
10
0.0
682
100.
0
420
100.
0
431
100.
057
210
0.0
587
100.
032
510
0.0
154
100.
015
710
0.0
178
100.
037
100.
033
2 10
0.0
5910
0.0
204
100.
017
100.
089
410
0.0
201
100.
045
100.
099
210
0.0
141
100.
06
100.
0
CD
01
13
7 12
.0
86
12.6
44
10.5
5011
.675
13.1
7212
.334
10.5
1811
.831
20.0
2011
.37
19.0
35
10.5
711
.123
11.3
18.
411
512
.919 9.
62
5.3
125
12.6
12 8.3
CD
02
21
8 19
.2
135
19.8
79
18.7
7517
.412
221
.312
421
.162
19.0
2415
.733
21.1
3217
.83
8.3
65
19.5
813
.344
21.6
211
.316
718
.746
22.9
612
.518
919
.129
20.7
CD
03
15
6 13
.7
95
13.9
56
13.3
6615
.376
13.2
7913
.448
14.6
2012
.717
10.8
2815
.87
18.7
38
11.5
1118
.227
13.0
15.
911
412
.730
14.7
1328
.413
613
.719
13.3
116
.4
CD
04
35
3.
1
20
2.9
14
3.2
15 3.4
19 3.3
17 2.9
10 3.1
63.
68
4.3
13.
17
2.0
12.
48
3.9
25 2.8
84.
02
5.5
30 3.0
53.
9
CD
05
16
6 14
.6
112
16.4
49
11.8
6114
.391
15.9
9115
.641
12.5
2214
.619
12.1
3217
.87
18.1
51
15.4
712
.226
12.8
213
.613
715
.321
10.4
818
.413
613
.729
20.4
119
.4
CD
06
19
0 16
.7
107
15.7
80
19.0
7918
.491
15.9
8815
.063
19.4
2516
.518
11.4
2513
.86
16.2
81
24.5
712
.632
15.8
425
.315
016
.836
17.9
48.
416
416
.525
17.5
230
.1
CD
07
55
4.
8
34
4.9
18
4.4
20 4.6
23 4.0
30 5.1
14 4.3
64.
09
5.6
84.
22
6.0
10
2.9
69.
511 5.
51
6.3
45 5.0
94.
61
1.6
48 4.8
64.
21
18.9
CD
08
18
2 16
.0
94
13.8
80
19.1
6515
.177
13.4
8614
.654
16.5
3321
.130
19.0
2714
.94
10.6
46
13.7
1220
.833
16.0
529
.214
215
.832
15.8
919
.616
516
.616
11.7
115
.2