david smith - global futures and foresight part 2
TRANSCRIPT
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What’s driving changeWhat can we do about itWhat s driving changeWhat can we do about it
David SmithChief executive
Global Futures and Foresight© Global Futures and Foresight 2011
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Food for thoughtg
• How to take advantage of:– Global competition– Changing populations
Changing working patterns– Changing working patterns– Growing faith groups– Booming infrastructure demand– Increasingly powerful and mobile computing– Social applications for networked business
Vi t l ld i t ti / t i / d i– Virtual world interaction/customer service/advice
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Innovation
48 Years
1810 18581810 1858Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener
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Strategies to face the futureg
1 Inertia1. Inertia2. Agility3. Foresight
To reduce risk & exploit change
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Co-opetitionp• Compete hard = collaborate hard• Reconfigure around client & market• Reconfigure around client & market
needs:– Mix of capabilities creating a unique
proposition only possible by collaborationproposition only possible by collaboration.• Not M&A• Intended to be for now and ‘temporary’
– Could be 3 months or 3 years.
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Co-creation Networks
• Delegate innovation to outsiders.
• Loncin, a Chinese motorcycle manufacturer, sets broad specifications for products and then p plets suppliers work together to design the components.
• Expect more co-creation. http://jianshe.com.au/_img/lx50py‐side.jpg
Source: Technology enabled trends ‐from The McKinsey QuarterlyGlobal Futures
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Co-Creation Car – Fiat Mio"a car to call your own”
15,000 people contributed design ideas
Creative Commons licence Global Futures& Foresight
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Open Innovation - Mash-up businessHigher levels of brainpower applied.• "two heads are better than one "two heads are better than one. Validity.• Solving the right problems is half the
battle of innovation.Quicker to scale.• EG: In the Netflix/LG Electronics deal• EG: In the Netflix/LG Electronics deal.
– LG gets ready customers .– Netflix gets a new media platform – Something new - co-created.
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/mar2008/id20080319_656312.htmGlobal Futures
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Think Share – Think Groupp• Sharing• Collaborating• Collaborating• Personalising/Customising • Re-mixing (Mashup)g ( p)• Creating • Playing (Along/with)
F ll i (T itt lik )• Following (Twitter like)
Think co-creation – Think co-distributionThink co creation Think co distribution
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WYK2
• Who do you know?
What you know & who you know
y– How many suppliers
– How many general contacts
– How many out of market people
– How many customers
• What do they know?• What do they know?
• Who could you join with?
• Who could you collaborate with to create a new offer?Who could you collaborate with to create a new offer?
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Crowd-in–the-Cloud• How are you getting known?
What wisdom are you sharing?• What wisdom are you sharing?• Are you:
– Blogging/vlogging– Tweeting– What’s your following
• How many new contacts this month?y• How many re-tweets, likes do you get?• How many ideas do you get a month?
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What does this mean• Business is not the same as before.• Faster collaborations and partnering• Faster collaborations and partnering.• More ideas, faster.• Customer oriented projects.p j• Networked products (and services).• Innovation everywhere.
N b i d l• New business models.• Continuing cost pressures.
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If you do what you've always done you'll get what you'vedone, you ll get what you ve
always got.
Tony Robbins, Life Coach
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WHAT WILL THEY EAT
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Food, lifestyles and farming
“We are beginning to realise
, y g
We are beginning to realise that the era of food surpluses has come to an end”has come to an end
Financial Times, January 2011
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Eating more meatg• Increasing prosperity leads to a
doubling of global meat productiondoubling of global meat production by the year 2050. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• Meat consumption in the developing world increased 17% between 2000-2010between 2000 2010.
• Industrial world eats twice as much meat per person.
http://starglobaltribune.com/2011/low-fat-food-new-method-can-produce-low-fat-sausages-that-taste-just-as-good-as-the-original-3828
http://www.worldwatch.org/vs2010
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Artificial meat 2050• Low-tech ways are effective to increase
yields:yields:– Reducing the 30-40% food waste. – Better storage facilities and supermarkets.
Better packaging– Better packaging– Consumers in rich countries buy only what
they need.Wild d• Wild cards:– Artificial meat, made in giant vats.– Nanotechnology
• Delivering medication to livestock.
Dr Philip Thornton, a scientist International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi
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Aquaculture 2015 & 2025• Tripled in 15 years.
By 2015 aquaculture 39% of
q
• By 2015, aquaculture 39% of global seafood production.
“Global aquaculture productionGlobal aquaculture production will have to increase by 500% by the year 2025 to meet the projected needs of a worldprojected needs of a world population of 8.5 billion people,“ ASA President Johnny Dodson
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=20742462
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_OORyagu8ETY/SpnryKF1AvI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/dke4pnF81lY/s400/fish-farming.jpg
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Halal food sales 2020• Halal food sales $640bn a year.
$850b b 2020• $850bn by 2020.
• Roots in Middle East and Asia.• Muslims in Africa and Asia. • Growing Europe’s 50m Muslims.• America and Australasia are also
growing. http://www.arksign.com/images/Neon%20-%20Halal.jpg
http://halalworld.org/html/images/report/Halal%20foodobserving%20growthFood%20NewsComment.pdf
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Personalized nutrition 2028• Forces driving personalized
t itinutrition:
– Non-invasive biomonitoring technology.gy
– Inexpensive genetic profiling.– Nutrigenomic knowledge– Artificial intelligence and data-mining– Artificial intelligence and data-mining http://www.thednawealthcreator.com/images/superstock_1098r-6105b.medium.jpg
http://food.fleishmanhillard.com/whatsinstore/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/food2028whitepaper.pdfGlobal Futures
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SUSTAINABILITY DRIVING INNOVATIONINNOVATION
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AdnamsSustainable premiumSustainable premium
Insight: • Environmentally sustainable products pgEnvironmentally sustainable products
attract a price premium.What they did: • “greening” their buildings technology and s-
beer
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948a
.jp
• greening their buildings, technology and brewing processes.
• Reduced weight of glass in bottles.
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• The UK’s first carbon-neutral beer. Outcome:• Profits grow 65% to nearly £7m es
un.c
o.uk
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• Profits grow 65% to nearly £7m.
(Profits have slumped through the recession)
http://www.realbusiness.co.uk/news/corporate‐governance/5420906/adnams‐boosts‐bottom‐line‐with‐clever‐csr.thtml
http
://im
g.th
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APPLEReduced transport costs reduced CO2Reduced transport costs, reduced CO2
Intent: • Reduced emissions during transportation.
What they did: • Reducing packaging 40%.g p g g• 50% more boxes in each
airline shipping container.
Outcome:• Fewer CO2 emissions.• Saves one 747 flight for• Saves one 747 flight for
every 32,000 units.http://www.apple.com/environment/complete-lifecycle/
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PUMAReduced resources increased profit
Intent: • Reduced cardboard use by 65%
Reduced resources, increased profit
• Replaced plastic shopping bags, and waste.What they did: • ‘clever little bag’ Outcome:• Reduce water, energy and
diesel in manufacturing by 60%.diesel in manufacturing by 60%.• 8,500 tons less paper consumed.• 20m mega joules of electricity saved.• In transport 500 000 litres of diesel savedIn transport 500,000 litres of diesel saved.• 1m litres less fuel oil saved and water conserved.
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2010/04/27/a-look-at-pumas-fuseproject-packaging/Global Futures
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CHANGING CONSUMERCONSUMER BEHAVIOURBEHAVIOUR
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What I like – Where I like – On any screen I likeany screen I like
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Smartphonesp• 50% of owners buy on their mobile.• Up 20% over last 9 months• Up 20% over last 9 months• 11% purchase on a weekly basis• 28% find product informationp• 80% using their mobiles to shop
C i i i• Comparing pricing• GPS to find stores
mecommerce when and where I likeSource: 10th May 2011 http://www.edigitalresearch.com/news/item/nid/457336168
mecommerce – when and where I likeSource: Verdict April 20th 2011 http://www.internetretailing.net/2011/04/mobile-set-to-change-the-face-of-the-high-street-as-shoppers-move-online-or-out-of-town/
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Smartphone shoppingS a tp o e s opp g
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Smartphone shoppingp pp gAt the grocery store
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Convenience• Miniaturize home technology.
f• Aquaponics - fish and vegetables in artificial ecosystem. – The plants clean the waterp
– The fish nourish the plants with their waste.
http://blog.casase.it/2009/08/21/biosphere-home-farm-una-fattoria-in-cucina/
http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/cliff-kuang/design-innovation/food-2030-printed-demand-crafted-your-diet
Biosphere Home Farm
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Convenience• 3D printer that mixes foods
and flavors to produceand flavors to produce something edible.– Delivers elaborate combinations
f f dof food.
– A rapid heating and cooling chamber
http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/21/the-cornucopia-mits-3d-food-printer-patiently-awaits-the-futu/
The Cornucopia: MIT's 3D Food Printer
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Virtual/Online Communities• Virtual communities are not a
replacement for the traditionalreplacement for the traditional.
• Virtual spaces - leading incubator of communities.
• Participation inequality:. – 90% of users are lurkers
http://slwtf.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/kadawe4.jpg
– 9% of users contribute sometimes
– 1% of users actively participate and are responsible for all the actionp
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ORGANISATIONALORGANISATIONALCHANGE
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Managementg
1. There is a “right” way2. The role of the manager is to know
that “right” way3 To train people in the “right” way3. To train people in the right way4. To supervise people to ensure that
they do it the “right” way
The role of management is to ensure predictability & stabilitypredictability & stability
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Management – Leadership b lbalance
• No change70-90% management, 10-30% leadership
• Change10 30% management 70 90% leadership10-30% management, 70-90% leadership
ange Professor John Kotter
Harvard Business School
ree
of c
haD
egr
Leadership skills Global Futures& Foresight
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Brand ValuationDifferences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation
DIFFERENTIATIONThe Brand’s point of difference
Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation
p
ENERGYThe Brand’s sense of momentum
RELEVANCE
Percentile rank
How appropriate the Brand is to youESTEEMHow well regarded The Brand is
KNOWLEDGEIntimate understanding of The Brand
A PROPRIETARY PRACTICE OF YOUNG & RUBICAM BRANDS
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Brand ValuationDifferences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation
LeadershipHigh earnings / high potential Apple
Differences alone are not sufficient to achieve Differentiation2.5x
1 41 9x
Leadership brands generate more value per pound of sale
Intangible assets are growing in
RE
NG
THN
CE
/ E
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GR
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Unrealized potential
DecliningHigh earnings / low potential
1.4x1.9xare growing in importance and valueBrands are the only assets that
d B
rand
STR
ATI
ON
/ R
ELE
VAN Unrealized potential
or nicheLow earnings / high potential
ErodedSeriously challenged
Starbucks
0.7x
only assets that organizations can permanently own, leverage and sustain above and
Ene
rgiz
ed(D
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NTI
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New
Seriously challenged
Unfocused0.9xbeyond business
infrastructure to drive economic value
A PROPRIETARY PRACTICE OF YOUNG & RUBICAM BRANDS
Brand STATURE(ESTEEM / KNOWLEDGE) Global Futures
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Successful leaders of changeg
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“Organize” for … performance & customer
satisfactionsatisfaction.
“Disorganize” for renewal“Disorganize” for … renewal & innovation.
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Vision
S OVISIONS O
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CI di id lCommercialNext
CompanyIndividualCommercial
VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightWhy
Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesWhat
Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityHow
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010
How
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2D view
Today Future
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3D view
Today FutureTomorrow
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3D execution
Manage EnvisionLead
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3D leadershipp
Manager EntrepreneurLeader
Do you know who the entrepreneurs are in your organization?
What will your business challenges be in 5 years time?
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Entrepreneur, Leader, Managerp , , gManager
Leader Entrepreneur
• Entrepreneurs seek change and exploit it• Entrepreneurs seek change and exploit it• Leaders take us into new territory• Managers drive out the value
Attitudinal ProfileGlobal Futures
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E tL dManagerIndicator
EntrepreneurLeaderManager
VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight
Leader CultureBehaviourCycles
Manager ValuesCommsCapability
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010Global Futures
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E tL dManagerIndicator
EntrepreneurLeaderManager
VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightManager Leader EntrepreneurEntrepreneur Entrepreneur
Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesManager Leader EntrepreneurLeader Leader
Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityManager Leader Entrepreneur
M M
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010
Manager Manager
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E tL dManagerManager
EntrepreneurLeaderManager
VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightManager Leader EntrepreneurEntrepreneur Entrepreneur
Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesManager Leader EntrepreneurLeader Leader
Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityManager Leader Entrepreneur
M M
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010
Manager Manager
Global Futures& Foresight
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E tL dManagerLeader
EntrepreneurLeaderManager
VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightManager Leader EntrepreneurEntrepreneur Entrepreneur
Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesManager Leader EntrepreneurLeader Leader
Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityManager Leader Entrepreneur
M M
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010
Manager Manager
Global Futures& Foresight
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E tL dManagerEntrepreneur
EntrepreneurLeaderManager
VisionResourcesEntrepreneur Foresight VisionResourcesEntrepreneur ForesightManager Leader EntrepreneurEntrepreneur Entrepreneur
Leader CultureBehaviourCyclesManager Leader EntrepreneurLeader Leader
Manager ValuesCommsCapabilityManager Leader Entrepreneur
M M
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2010
Manager Manager
Global Futures& Foresight
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Connect your entrepreneursy p• Give permission• Give attention• Resource• Encourage• Collaborate across
boundariesboundaries• Externalise• Honour innovation• Honour innovation
Global Futures& Foresight
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Imagine itImagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look aheady g y
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Global Futures& Foresight