global futures and strategic foresight
DESCRIPTION
Global Futures and Strategic ForesightTRANSCRIPT
Global Futures and Strategic Foresight
CIAT, Cali24 February 2014
Objectives
• Enhance a coordinated suite of biophysical and economic models
• Strengthen capacity and build a community of practice for ex ante impact assessment
• Assess potential returns to a range of possible technologies and investments under alternative global futures
Overview
• Global Futures Phase 1 (2010 – 2013)• Funding from BMGF and CCAFS• IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IRRI; ICRAF, ILRI
• Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2 (2013 – 2016)• Funding from BMGF, CCAFS and PIM• Joined by ICARDA, IITA, IWMI and WorldFish
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture
AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
The role of agricultural technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including climate change• Linked crop models and
economic models• Assessed 11
technologies for maize, rice and wheat• Impacts on prices,
yields, risk of hungerSource: IFPRI (2014)
7
IMPACT – Una Red de Modulos• Módulos Actuales
• Modelo Económico• Producción de Cultivos• Producción Ganadero• Producción de productos procesados
• Modelos Hídricos• Modelos de Nutrición• Modelo de análisis de beneficio y costo
• Futuros módulos:• Agropecuario• Mejorado Producción ganadero• Módulo de biocombustibles
Producción Demanda y Precios
Producción• Crecimiento exogeno• Precios del productos• Gastos de producción
Prices• Equilibra demanda y
producción
Demanda• Ingresos• Precios• Población
8
Geografía en IMPACT
159 •Países
154 •Cuencas
320 •Unidades de Producción Agraria
10
Producción y Demanda
• 56 cultivos• Producción• Comercio• Consumo
• Demanda desagregadopor país y posiblemente por tipo de consumidor (i.e. urbano-rural, rico-pobre)
Actividades y Productos – La cadena de producción
Actividad Prima• Produce
algun producto
Producto• Se vende en
el Mercado
Actividad Procesador• Demanda
productos • Produce
nuevos productos procesados
Productos procesados• Soybean Oil
(csbol)• Soybean
Meal (csbml)
11
Ag R&D Cycle
Intervention
Problem identification
M&E, review(Ex-post evaluation)
Foresight & ex-ante eval
Priority setting
PolicyRecommendations &
strategies
Outputs, OutcomesImpacts
ClayucaFLAR
Cassava, Beans, Rice,
Forages
Cassava, Beans, Rice
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT
),( Py
Technologies
Shocks
)( y
)( y
DSSAT, Biophysical
models
IMPACT Model
MulticriteriaAnalysis
DELPHI Process
Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies
Socio-economic model
Dalys, Env Services, Gender
issues, other
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
Shocks
)( y
)( y
DSSAT, Biophysical
models
IMPACT Model
MulticriteriaAnalysis
DELPHI Process
Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies
Socio-economic model
Dalys, Env Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
• DSSAT: Participated in various workshops and meetings (including AgMip)
• Set up of a working High Performance Cluster for crop modeling
• Data collection, calibration of cultivars (beans)
• Following the revamping of cassava model
• Data collection: management practices
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
Shocks
DSSAT, Biophysical
models
IMPACT Model
MulticriteriaAnalysis
DELPHI Process
Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies
Socio-economic model
Dalys, Env Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
• Expert surveys to detect constraints: Cassava, rice
• Future: expert survey for beans, expert consultation for forages
• Multicriteria surveys to stakeholders: Cassava, rice
• Foresight workshops for agriculture in LAC
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
Shocks
DSSAT, Biophysical
models
IMPACT Model
MulticriteriaAnalysis
DELPHI Process
Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies
Socio-economic model
Dalys, Env Services, Gender
issues, other∆y, ∆P
• minor participation in the elaboration of the new IMPACT
• Run a few models, main ones:• Herbicide tolerant Cassava• Biological control of mealybug
• Subutilized• Future work:
• Analyze new technologies• Model for LAC• Model commodity markets:
Cassva and beans
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
Shocks
DSSAT, Biophysical
models
IMPACT Model
MulticriteriaAnalysis
DELPHI Process
Priority settingNew technologiesStrategies, policies
Socio-economic model
Dalys, Env Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
• RTB CRP ps project• Set priorities for: rice, beans,
forages• Analyze and keep track of
changes in major trends and drivers for CIAT Commodities / in LAC
• Strategic foresight for main crops: multidisciplinary committees
Opportunities GFSF & CIAT
• Internal:• Priority setting for crop groups: support for R&D agenda• Identifying opportunities and risks• Linking research to impacts: donors
• CGIAR level• Increase communication among centers and CRPs• Help setting credible IDOs & Outcomes
• Policy making• Scenario based global modeling: support decision making• Work with NARs in strategic planning