david&lalman,&oklahomastate&university& june16,2016 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 1
David Lalman, Damona Doye, Megan Rolf, Mike Brown, Corbit Bayliff, Miles Redden, Adam McGee, Courtney Spencer
What we do and opportuni/es for 2036
Produce cattle with tremendous capacity for post-‐weaning growth and carcass weight
1200
1220
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1400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Finished caHle weights increasing at rate of 9.4 lb per year Carcass weights increasing at rate of 5.7 lb per year
Livestock MarkeQng InformaQon Center, 2016
Produce cattle with tremendous capacity for marbling
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 2
48 51.7
62.7
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 2006 2009 2015
Livestock MarkeQng InformaQon Center, 2016
Cutability has declined marginally
Yield Grade 1995 2015
1 12.6 6.7
2 45.3 33.8
3 34.2 46.7
4 7.1 11.1
5 0.8 1.8
Livestock MarkeQng InformaQon Center, 2016
! Kansas: Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) Kevin Herbel
! North Dakota: Cow Herd Appraisal Performance Software (CHAPS) Dr. Kris Ringwall
! New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas: Standardized Performance Analysis (SPA) Dr. Stan Bevers
! Upper Midwest (FINBIN), Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 3
y = 5.25x + 44.5 y = 5.0x + 57.2
$40.00
$90.00
$140.00
$190.00
$240.00
$290.00
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Calf Price Cost per
Standardized Performance Analysis, Dr. Stan Bevers, Texas A&M
Pendell et al., 2015 (KFMA data) ! 79 operaQons with data from 2010 through 2014 ! High profit 1/3 averaged $415 more net return per cow compared to low profit 1/3
! 32.2% difference due to gross income ▪ Weaning weight ▪ Weaning rate ▪ Calf price ▪ Cull cow income
! 67.8% difference due to reduced cost
Pendell et al., 2015 (KFMA data) ! 1 lb of added weaning weight = $0.86 added cost per cow
! If weaning rate = 86%, average cost per lb of added weaning weight = $1.00
! 234 weekly sale reports (2010 – 2014) from Oklahoma NaQonal Stockyards for 550 to 650 lb calves indicated average value of added weight = $85.90 ± 33.20
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
SPA KFMA* CHAPS FINBIN
Item Upper Midwest
(FINBIN) Southern Plains
(SPA) Average
Pregnancy 96.1 90.5 95.6
Pregnancy loss 2.2 3.0 2.6
Calf death loss 6.0 4.1 5.1
Weaning rate 87.9 83.4 85.7
*Five-‐year average from 2009 through 2013
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 4
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
550.0
600.0
650.0
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
SPA KFMA CHAPS FINBIN
*Angus = adjusted weights for bull calves
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
550.0
600.0
650.0
700.0
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
SPA KFMA CHAPS Angus* FINBIN Linear (Angus*)
*Angus = adjusted weights for bull calves
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
550.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Wea
ning
Weigh
t (lb)
Southwest Minnesota
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 5
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75
1960
19
62
1964
19
66
1968
19
70
1972
1974
1976
19
78
1980
19
82
1984
19
86
1988
19
90
1992
19
94
1996
19
98
2000
20
02
2004
20
06
2008
20
10
2012
Hay production/use per cow is increasing at the rate of 66 lb per year
Photo Courtesy of Oklahoma State University
Diet Fed, lb (DM) / d
Kcal NEm·∙ (kg BW0.75)-‐1
·∙ hd -‐1·∙ d -‐1 % NRC
17.6 118 67
21.8 138 82
26.0 154 96
29.3 172 107
31.7 187 112
P < 0.006 Y = 0.019x – 2.85
Energy required for maternal maintenance plus milk
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 6
P < 0.002 Y = 6.7x + 137
Milk producQon at maternal maintenance (10.5 kg)
+1.1 lb/d (DM) cow feed = 1 lb/d additional milk yield
P < 0.02 Y = 0.28x + 119
+27 lb/d (DM) cow feed = 1 lb/d addi/onal calf gain
! Commercial cow/calf segment has contributed immensely to dramaQc improvement in post-‐weaning performance
! In the meanQme, there is no evidence that commercial cow efficiency has improved in a “sell at weaning” context
! More data is needed to determine if geneQc capacity for weaning weight is limited by the environment on commercial operaQons (do indexes need to be adjusted?)
! More milk is not the answer ! Over the next 20 years, the commercial cow/calf segment should shio focus more toward minimizing cost rather than increasing producQon ! Forage uQlizaQon efficiency ! Improvement in ferQlity (especially in the South) ! Reduced calf death loss (especially in the North)
-‐60
-‐40
-‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1972
19
73
1974
19
75
1976
19
77
1978
19
79
1980
19
81
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
DMI E
PD
-‐0.1
-‐0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
DMI E
PD
David Lalman, Oklahoma State University June 16, 2016
BIF 2016 General Session II 7
Brown et al., 2005
Increasing risk/frequency of cases where: a) forage resources limit the
expression of geneQc potenQal for milk
b) producQon costs have increased
because the “environment” has been arQficially modified to fit the cows
The Sustained Cow Fertility (SCF) results, reported in percentage units, are oriented such that larger breeding values reflect sires whose daughters calve annually for more years.