African Deforestation: A Problem, Not a Crisis

Eric FrenchJessica Pittman

Courtney Bonney

Crisis Defined:Grave Threat to Population Severely Limited Response TimeSolutions Are Uncertain

ArgumentDeforestation in Africa is a problem but not a crisis,

because:Response time is not severely limited

Other regions have addressed the problem without urgency Not a grave threat to a population

Narrative suggesting such a threat uses flawed data Deforestation counteracts socioeconomic crises There are some problem areas but also some success stories

Feasible solutions exist Some local conservation efforts have worked Soil fertility could be improved Kuznets could save the day Innovations could save the day Inadequate institutions are to blame

RESPONSE TIME IS NOT STRICTLY LIMITED

Similar deforestation experiencesUS has 1% of it’s original forest, not a crisis,

a problem that we overcame with secondary growth forest.

LatinAmerica is experiencing similar deforestation, yet NGO’s have focused attention on them and decreased deforestation rates.

Forest Cover 8,000 Years Ago

World Resources Institute: Forest Frontier Regions (1987)Frontier forestsLarge intact forests with high levels of biodiversity; Old growth forests which are under threat to development.

Low-threat potentially vulnerable frontier forests: Those forests not now considered under enough pressure to degrade ecosystems.

Non-frontier forests: Secondary forests, plantations, degraded forest, and some old-growth forests. This category still includes a great deal of biodiversity but is open to human influence. Conservation is key to the maintenance of these forests.

Original forest: Forest cover about 8,000 years ago, before human impact.

North & Central America

•Original Forest: 12.7 million square km.

•Frontier forest in Central America makes up only 10% of original forest cover.

•In the lower 48 States, only 1% of original forest remains as forest frontier.

•84% of North America's threatened frontier forests are under threat from logging.

South America

•In South America forest originally covered more than 9.7 million square kilometers.

•54% of South America's frontier forest is under moderate or high threat.

•The majority of countries with high levels of biodiversity are located in South America

Africa

•Original Forest: 6.8 million square km.

•8% (0.5 million square kilometers) of Africa's original forest remains as frontier forest.

•77% of Africa's frontier forest are under moderate or high threat.

Today’s Africa

Deforestation Rates Compared

NOT A SEVERE THREAT TO POPULATION

The Accepted Narrative“One tragic example of the loss of forests and then water is found in Ethiopia. The amount of its forested land has decreased from 40 to 1 percent in the last four decades. Currently the amount of rainfall has declined to a point where the country is rapidly becoming a wasteland”

Senator Albert GoreEarth in the Balance (1992)

Ethiopia’s Forest Deg Narrative1. Asserts a historical baseline for which no

systematic data are available

2. Assumes that degradation is cumulative and induced by human mismanagement

3. Presents an apocalyptic forecast with a trajectory of complete deforestation, which will ultimately cause chronic drought

Data FlawsReview of literature reveals

base-line data was inaccurate. First colonial data: Late 1800’sStebbings: 1930’s (Swift, 1997)Assumptions

Cleaver & Schreiber admitImperfect dataAggregate data obscure resultsLarge tracts of forest still exist

Socioeconomic CrisesMalnutritionPovertyOn balance, deforestation may help, not hurt,

Africans’ chances at survival

Excessive Generalization¾ of the entire continent suffer same

problems?

Multiple examples of successful forestry initiatives.

• Botswana• Niger• South Africa• Ghana

Botswana

National Conservation efforts6 forest reservesEco-tourismEnergy shift

NigerIndividual efforts make a difference.Newsweek claims Niger is the poorest

country in many development studies.Yale & Columbia created an Environmental

Performance Index in which Niger scored a 6 (of 100).

90% of country’s population depends on 10% of its land…cause for change?

South AfricaAmerican Forests, Spring 2003, Gaynor

Lawson:S.Africa’s timber industry allows it to preserve

native forests while extracting from plantations.

360,000 trees planted every day, 90 million a year!

Timber industry encourages small-development by providing grants, education.

More than 75% of S.Africa’s forests managed according to FSC standards.

GhanaNatural forest zone: 30% of countryLarge source of incomeRecognized as one of the most advanced

tropical African countries in establishing forest policy, legislation, forest inventory, management planning.

Developed a National Forest Standard and principles, criteria and indicators for judging the quality of forest management and usage.

FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS EXIST

Recall the Success Stories…

Soil Amendments Africa’s low adoption rate of

inorganic fertilizer use decreases agriculture productivity (yield/ha).

Currently, the US experiences negative environmental effects from over fertilization

The negative environmental effects from low fertilizer use are greater than the negative effects from high fertilizer use in Africa.

Currently fertilizers are 2 to 4 times more expensive in Africa than in developed nations.

US Aid in fertilizer would avert much of the so called “crisis.”

Zimbabwe Soil Fertility Study

Farmer Perception of Loss

% of Respondents

Soil nutrient depletiondue to Deforestation

70

Recurrent Drought 3

Gully Development 5

Poor Farming Practice

22

Studies may incorrectly link soil nutrient depletion to deforestation

Gully development and deforestation easily linked

Nutrient depletion has numerous causes, more likely poor farming practices.

Farmers did not know that the pH level was extremely low.

Low pH will decrease availability of macronutrients and increase the availability of micronutrients to that of toxic levels. http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/ae938e/

ae938e06.htm

Africa’s Future NeedsMineral Fertilizer MarketParticularly need LimeTechnology which makes

use of Human Capital

Can it be done?

http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/reports/country_proc4.htm

SesbaniasesbanMaize flourishes in the rainy season and the sesbania tree grows in the dry season fixing nitrogen in the soil and providing fuelwood for the household.

With one agroforestry technique both hunger and deforestation can be addressed. This is but one of the many appropriate technology solutions which we propose will alleviate current deforestation issues.

The tailored nature of this technological advancement reinforces the benefits of dispelling the current degradation narrative for the empirical, local land use research.

http://www.tropicalforages.info/key/Forages/Media/Html/Sesbania_sesban.htm

Environmental Kuznet’s Curve

Size of Study:31 Sub-Saharan African countries

Time Period:1972-91Size of Forests: >1,000,000

hectares in 1990Africa and Latin America have

an EKC for deforestation.\ In Africa the tipping point is

US$ 1,300The mean income of the

African countries studied was US$ 1,000

Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation:

A Cross-country Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia

MadhusudanBhattarai and Michael Hammig, Clemson University, South Carolina, USA

Other Factors Illegal logging

Only significant for Asia Positive effect

Institutions and Increased Civil Liberties Significant for Africa and Latin America Negative effect

External Debt Significant for all Positive effect

Change in Cereal Yield (proxy for technical advancement) Significant for Africa Negative effect

Rural Population Growth Significant for all Positive effect for Africa and Latin America May present a U-Shaped curve similar to EKC (Templeton and

Scherr (1999)

Solutions in Reference to EKCIf degradation is more

severe to be addressed by the EKC solutions exist

Policies which address the significant factors flatten the curve.

Institutions, Tech Change, and Rural Population Density factors have the greatest effect.

New Tech Future: SFP

Inadequate InstitutionsWeak statesDecolonizationMarket institutions

WebsitesWorld Resource Institute http://multimedia.wri.org/frontier_forest_maps/index.html

Forest Watchhttp://www.globalforestwatch.org/english/interactive.maps/index.htm

Soil Informationftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/wsr.pdf

http://www.compete-bioafrica.net/current_land/current_land.html