decarbonization through cross sectoral supply with ... · germany‘s energy and climate protection...
TRANSCRIPT
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For Our Environment
decarbonization through cross sectoral supply with
renewable energies
Dr. Harry LehmannGeneral Director at the Federal Environment Agency, GermanyHead of Division I – Environmental Planning and Sustainability Strategies
Goals
40 – 100 – 100Plus - GHG N – RTD
Policy
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Germany‘s Energy and Climate Protection Targets
19/09/2016 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 2
ClimateRenewable
Energy Efficiency
GHG(vs. 1990)
Electric power
Total share
Primary energy
Energy productivity
Modernisingbuildings
2020 - 40% 35% 18% - 20%
increaseto
2,1% p.a.
doublerate
1% 2%
2030 - 55% 50% 30%
2040 - 70% 65% 45%
2050 - 80-95% 80% 60% - 50%
The German Climate Action Programme 2020
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The Paris Agreement
Aims (Article 4):
• “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”
• Peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible• Net zero balance in the second half of this century
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The Paris Agreement
Conseqences (Article 4):
“decarbonization” of all societies…
Germany has to increase goals ….
-95 % Greenhouse Gas Emission in 2050 (industrialized countries)
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-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2010 UBA THGND 2050
Emissionen in Mio.t CO
2Äq
Waste
LULUCF
Agriculture
Industrial processes, solvents and other product applicationsTransport
Energy (excluding transport)
106
t CO
2eq
– 95%
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2010 UBA THGND 2050
Emissionen in Mio.t CO
2Äq
Approach by a systemical / holistic analysis and scenarios
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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1 ton CO2 per cap
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Efficiency
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Energy Demand in diff. sectors
Germany 2008 and 2050
2008 2050
76
427
667
106
6% 33% 52% 8%0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
TWh
898
557
974
135
35% 22% 38% 5%0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
TWh
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100%REN
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Source: Harry Lehmann, 1996
eMethan
100% Electricity Supply from REN ...
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GHG Neutral Germany - ElectricityD
ecen
traliz
ed/ s
mal
l Centralized
/ big
National / Local / nearby
International / far away
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GHG Neutral Germany - ElectricityArchetypes of 100% REN
Dec
entra
lized
/ sm
all C
entralized/ big
National / Local / nearby
International / far away
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
Harry Lehmann (2009)
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GHG Neutral Germany - ElectricityD
ecen
traliz
ed/ s
mal
l Centralized
/ big
National / Local / nearby
International / far away
?
?
“Regions Network”
(2010 - 2014)
“International Large Scale”
(2014)
“Local Energy Autarky”
(2013)
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GHG Neutral Germany - ElectricityD
ecen
traliz
ed/ s
mal
l Centralized
/ big
National / Local / nearby
International / far away
?
?
“Regions Network”
(2010)
“International Large Scale”
(in progress)
“Local Energy Autarky”
(2013)
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GHG Neutral Germany - ElectricityD
ecen
traliz
ed/ s
mal
l Centralized
/ big
National / Local / nearby
International / far away
120
60
45
5.26.4
23.3
Installed Capacity GW
Photovoltaic
Wind energyonshoreWind energyoffshoreHydropower
Geothermal energy
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EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, Januar)
Tag
Leis
tung
(GW
)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement
© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES
Feed-in [GW] of all RE and the load curve
Example „Winter month“ (December) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050, based on the meteorological year 2007
Feed-in of renewable energy and load – per month (winter)
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EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, August)
Tag
Leis
tung
(GW
)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement
© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES
Feed-in [GW] of all RE and load
Example „Summer month“ (August) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050,
based on the meteorological year 2007
Feed-in of renewable energies and load – per month (summer)
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Storage needed
Gravitational Storage Chemical Storage
H2 or eMethan (SolarMethan)
Electric Storage
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Different Storage Systems in a 100% REN Elec. System
20
Total residual load (with load management and pump storage) in the year 2050, based on data from the meteorological year 2007
Res
idua
l loa
d (G
W)
Capacity gas grid(today)
pumped Storage (today)
pumped Storage Norway (theory)
42 Mio. electricvehicles (theory)
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PtL - The Process
ELECTRICITY ELECTROLYSIS WATER-GAS FISCHER-TROPSCHGENERATION SHIFT REACTION PROCESS
INPUT: - RENEWABLE ENERGIES OUTPUT: - SYNTHETIC LIQUID FUELS- PURIFIED CO2 - OXYGEN- WATER
www.sunfire.de
Established from Coal-to-liquid processes
(South Africa)
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Security of Supply
22
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Power to X
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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PT HPT GPT LPT C
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Power to X
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Power to Mobility - direct use of electricity and PTL
Electricity (incl. Plug-in-Hybrid)Passenger carTrucks short haulpossibly Trucks long haul as overhead wireUrban busesRail traffic
Quelle: Deutsche Handwerkszeitung.de
Quelle: spieg
Quelle: siemens.com
PTL: methanol, kerosene, gasoline, diesel,
Quelle:urlaubsgur.de Quelle:badischeZeitung.de
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Power to Mobility – Scenario 2050 + (1.600 PJ)
Quelle: Deutsche Handwerkszeitung.de
Quelle: spieg
Quelle: siemens.com
Quelle:urlaubsgur.de Quelle:badischeZeitung.de
Inter-nationaler Verkehr
Nationaler Verkehr
Quelle: IFEU/INFRAS/LBST 2016.
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Power to X
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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COP21 and the consequences for sustainable building
SBE 16 Hamburg | UBA Dr. Harry Lehmann
2050 scenarios with different renovation standards
Quelle: UBA – ÖkoInstitut – Fraunhofer Institut 2016
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COP21 and the consequences for sustainable building
SBE 16 Hamburg | UBA Dr. Harry Lehmann
2050 scenarios with different renovation standards
Quelle: UBA – ÖkoInstitut – Fraunhofer Institut 2016
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PT HPT GPT LPT C
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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PT HPT GPT LPT C
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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1 ton CO2 per cap
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Possible range of GHG-neutral final energy sources
Hydrogen Hydrocarbons
Electricity
possible range
Source UBA, 2014/2016
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UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050
Source: UBA
Qualitative representation of the energy flow in the UBA THGND 2050 Scenario
Possible
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Elements of a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society
Per capita emissions of just one metric ton of CO2eq in 2050Final energy demand in 2050 reduced by 50 % versus 2010
Sector coupling via “Power to Gas” and “Power to Liquid” implies a steep rise in electricity consumption
The net energy to be generated amounts to approximately3.000 TWh p.a. predominantly produced by wind and PV installations (2014: 511 TWh)No use of neither energy crops nor CCS nor nuclear energy is assumed
19.09.2 36
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Resources
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Neutral Germany
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Globale Primärrohstoffentnahme
Quelle: Krausmann et al. (2009): Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics Vol. 68, Nr. 10, 2696-2705, Version 1.2 (August 2011), www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/3133.htm
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Can we reduce resource use to sustainable levels at the same time?
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The new project of UBA – RTD2050:
100 % renewable energy in power, heat, traffic and industry
especially technical measures for the reduction of ghg emission in all areas
Ecological and sustainable AgricultureChanged meat consumption
High recycling rates (80%) and use of secondary materialsReductions along the whole value chain
Different Scenarios – e.g. less Efficiency ... More Import ... ???
Pathways towards a greenhouse gas neutral andresource efficient country till 2050
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Synergies / Problems
Ressource Productivity
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
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Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
Policy
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Climate Action Plan 2050
Climate Action Plan 2050
Target
• 80 to 95% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (below 1990 levels)
Strategies• Identification of robust strategies and possible transformative pathways
Measures
• Building on dialogue and participation • Recommendations to the government• Government to assess, comment on recommendations, draft climate
action plan by summer 2016
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All sectors contribute to emissions reduction
IndustryCommerce
TradeServices
Energy
TransportPrivate House-holds
Other emissions(waste, …)
Cross-sectoral
measuresAgri-
culture
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UBA Position paper to the Climate Action Plan 2050
• Designing the transformation process to a GHG neutral society
• Ambitious GHG reduction of 95% (below 1990 levels)
• Recommendation of 32 measures to the German government
Climate Action Plan 2050
English version of this position paper is forthcoming.
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UBA Position paper to the Climate Action Plan 2050
Climate Action Plan 2050
English version of this position paper is forthcoming.
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19.09.2 47
Thanks !
Dr. Harry Lehmann ([email protected])
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en
• Germany 2050 - A Greenhouse Gas-Neutral Country https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/germany-2050-a-greenhouse-gas-neutral-country
• Integration of Power to Gas/ Power to Liquids into theongoing transformation processhttps://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/integration-of-power-to-gas-power-to-liquids-into
• Proceedings of the Workshop „Decarbonisation – 100 % Renewable Energy and more“ from November 2015 https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/proceedings-of-the-workshop-decarbonisation-100
8.11.2016 – Berlin – Workshop Decarbonisation + Resource Eff.