december 9, 2009 o ’ connor forecast luncheon debt placementinvestment sales loan servicingprivate...
TRANSCRIPT
December 9, 2009
O’Connor Forecast Luncheon
DEBT PLACEMENT INVESTMENT SALES LOAN SERVICINGPRIVATE EQUITY & CORPORATE FINANCE STRUCTURED FINANCE LOAN SALES
Todd MarixSenior Managing Director
"Houston-area real estate foreclosures hit a record, but experts said the problem should taper off next year. But commercial real estate foreclosures probably will continue to increase.”
"The number of unemployed Texans swelled again in November, pushing the state's unemployment rate up 0.7 percent to 8.5 percent, federal officials said today…”
"Although losses and insolvencies at banks can reflect incompetent management, fraud or poor loan decisions, the performance of the banking system generally reflects the overall health of the economy."
State jobless rate jumps to 8.5%
FDIC Chairman says agency “hard- pressed” after nearly 200 bank failures
Dow rallies to top 2,000 mark
Foreclosures set record, but drop seen
December 24, 1987
December 28, 1987
December 4, 1987
December 2, 1987
IN THE NEWS
“The Dow Jones industrial average rose above the 2,000 mark Wednesday for the first time in months…”
Properties are trading at a increasing pace
Interest is high for the right product and the right story
Not all of the properties trading are distressed
Financing has evolved to meet the market and become more creative
Full marketing process still the best method to drive price and uncover new buyers
CONTRARY TO WHAT YOU MAY HAVE HEARD
CityTotal
TransactionsJan-Jun % of Total
Jul-Dec
% of Total
Austin 12 5 41.67% 7 58.33%
Dallas 58 28 48.28% 30 51.72%
Houston 60 22 36.67% 38 63.33%
San Antonio 15 6 40.00% 9 60.00%
2009 Increasing Transaction Volume
As of December 7, 2009Source: Real Capital Analytics
RECENTLY SOLD: GABLES AUGUSTA
YOC: 2004
Total Units: 312
Class: A
Submarket: Galleria
# Offers: 20
Cap Rate: 6.50%
Close Date: June 2009
RECENTLY SOLD: CHAMPIONS WOODS
YOC: 1983
Total Units: 186
Class: B
Submarket: FM 1960 West/Champions
# Offers: 17
Cap Rate: 8.25%
Close Date: September 2009
RECENTLY SOLD: WESTCHASE FOREST
YOC: 1999
Total Units: 400
Class: A-
Submarket: Westchase
# Offers: 27
Cap Rate: 7.60%
Close Date: October 2009
RECENTLY SOLD: TIAA PORTFOLIO
YOC: 1988-1994
Total Units: 470
Class: A and B
Submarket: Medical Center
# Offers: 10 Portfolio/50 Individual
Cap Rate: 7.50%
Close Date: December 2009
UNDER CONTRACT: LEGACY AT WESTERN OAKS
YOC: 2001
Total Units: 479
Class: A
Submarket:
Southwest Austin
# OMs: 154
# Tours: 29
# Offers: 36
Est. Close Date: December 2009
We are actively tracking 83 properties (28,000 units) that are in receivership, in
REO or posted for foreclosure
Additional 51 properties (10,000 units) that have been transferred to special
servicer
Total of 134 properties (38,000 units) in some form of REO competing for capital in
next 12-24 months
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRODUCT
Estimated Maturity Profile of Commercial Mortgages
FINANCING THE NEXT WAVE: BANK DEBT
YOC: 1982
Units: 270
Class: C
Submarket: FM 1960 W
Status: Closed
FINANCING THE NEXT WAVE: SELLER FINANCING
YOC: 1983
Units: 320
Class: C
Submarket: FM 1960 W
Status: Marketing
FINANCING THE NEXT WAVE: RESTRUCTURED / ASSUMABLE CMBS
YOC: 1970
Units: 440
Class: C
Submarket: Pasadena
Status: Closed
Commons on Edgebrook
YOC: 1982
Units: 224
Class: C
Submarket: Alief
Status: Closed
Brookstone
“Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio were included in the nation's 20 strongest metro areas by the Brookings Institute. The Washington, D.C. company’s quarterly MetroMonitor ranks the nation’s 100 largest metro areas for their economic performance based on five key indicators — employment, unemployment, output, home prices and foreclosure rates.”
"Austin took the top spot while Houston moved up 11 spaces to claim the fifth spot on this year's Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners Best Performing Cities Index. San Antonio, Fort Worth and Dallas ranked 11-13 respectively. Texas’ strong position in our best performing cities study demonstrates that a favorable business climate, combined with a low-cost/low-tax environment, is highly supportive of job creation."
"Four Texas markets will be among the first in the nation to recover from the recession, says a nationwide forecast by IHS Global Insight. San Antonio and Austin will lead the way, bouncing back to their pre-recession job levels sometime next year, while Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth are among eight other metropolitan areas predicted to recover by 2011."
Texas metros top 2009 best-performing cities list
Texas cities predicted to lead recovery
Report: Texas cities amongst strongest markets in the country
November 19, 2009
September 28, 2009
September 15, 2009
GOOD NEWS: YOU’RE IN TEXAS
GOOD NEWS: MULTI-HOUSING DEMAND
Historical and Projected Employment Growth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Empl
oym
ent
(Tho
usan
ds)
Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio