decision analysis (part i)
TRANSCRIPT
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Core Purpose: To Enable Organisations Become Happier
Decision Analysis
4th November 2013
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What is Decision Analysis?
• A quantitative framework for making decisions
• Selection of a decision from a set of possible decision alternatives when uncertainties regarding the future exist
• Goal is to optimize the resulting payoff in terms of a decision criterion
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Training | Mentoring | Data Analytics | Execution | Deployment
Decision Models
• Deterministic models
• Probabilistic models• Decision-making under pure uncertainty
• Maxmin
• Maxmax
• Minmax
• Decision-making under risk
• Expected value criterion
• Expected value of perfect information
• Bayesian analysis
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Training | Mentoring | Data Analytics | Execution | Deployment
Case Study
States of nature
>1000 points 300-1000 +/-300 -300 to -
1000<-1000 points
Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall
Alternatives
Bonds 9% 7% 6% 0% -1%
Stocks 17% 9% 5% -3% -10%
Fixed deposit 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
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MaxMin
Pessimistic approach based on worst case scenario
1. Write min for each row
2. Choose max of the above
States of nature
>1000 points
300-1000 +/-300 -300 to -
1000<-1000 points
Large rise
Small rise
No change Small fall Large fall Min
Alternatives
Bonds 9% 7% 6% 0% -1% -4%
Stocks 17% 9% 5% -3% -10% -10%
Fixed deposit 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
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Training | Mentoring | Data Analytics | Execution | Deployment
MaxMax
Pessimistic approach based on worst case scenario
1. Write max for each row
2. Choose max of the above
States of nature
>1000 points
300-1000 +/-300 -300 to -
1000<-1000 points
Large rise
Small rise
No change Small fall Large fall Max
Alternatives
Bonds 9% 7% 6% 0% -1% 9%
Stocks 17% 9% 5% -3% -10% 17%
Fixed deposit 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
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MinMax
Pessimistic approach to minimize regret or opportunity loss
1. Take the largest number in each coloumn
2. Subtract all the numbers in the coloumn from it
3. Choose maximum number for each option
4. Choose minimum number from step 3
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Training | Mentoring | Data Analytics | Execution | Deployment
Case Study
States of nature
>1000 points 300-1000 +/-300 -300 to -
1000<-1000 points
Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall
Alternatives
Bonds 9% 7% 6% 0% -1%
Stocks 17% 9% 5% -3% -10%
Fixed deposit 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
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Training | Mentoring | Data Analytics | Execution | Deployment
Regret Matrix
States of nature
>1000 points 300-1000 +/-300 -300 to -
1000<-1000 points
Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall
Alternatives
Bonds (17%-9%) (9%-7%) (7%-6%) (7%-0%) (7%+1%)
Stocks (17%-17%) (9%-9%) (7%-5%) (7%+3%) (7%+10%)
Fixed deposit (17%-7%) (9%-7%) (7%-7%) (7%-7%) (7%-7%)
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Training | Mentoring | Data Analytics | Execution | Deployment
Regret Matrix
States of nature
>1000 points 300-1000 +/-300 -300 to -
1000<-1000 points
Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall Max
Alter
natives
Bonds 8% 2% 1% 7% 8% 8%
Stocks 0% 0% 2% 10% 17% 17%
Fixed deposit 10% 2% 0% 0% 0% 10%
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Applications
• Project solution selection
• Make or buy decisions
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References
• University of Baltimore: http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/opre640a/partIX.htm
• John Wiley & Sons
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Thanks!!!