decision making under uncertainty rees presentationa
TRANSCRIPT
Decision making under uncertainty
Complex Risk Systems view
Interdisciplinary Multidisciplinary Transdisciplinary
Challenges – Uncertainty
• Common interest in uncertainty • Cross-sectoral focus • Development of non-RCUK partnerships • Measurable impact • Potential growth area for councils
RCUK Uncertainty Research
Existing RCUK initiatives
Multiple networks, institutions, training centres
Call for Networks Proposals for networks to build 1-2 (£750k
max) Multidisciplinary academic & practitioner networks focussed on developing new tools and approaches to enable decision making under uncertainty.
Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community.
Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community. Engage with user organisations to analyse real world systems and, and enable two-way transfer and application of approaches
Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community. Engage with user organisations to analyse real world systems and, and enable two-way transfer and application of approaches Identify areas for new multi-disciplinary research & knowledge translation to inform future research council investments
Research needs Development of methods to assimilate uncertainty in decision theory for extreme events
Research needs Formalisation of analysis of behaviour/ cognition/ perception and subjective based approaches into statistical approaches
Research needs Methods to characterise, quantify, communicate and propogate uncertainty that could be universally applied to complex systems
Research needs Developing decision theory to handle multi-modal uncertainty in complex (and fast changing) systems
Challenges • Split decision-making • Different cultures, schedules, priorities,
organisational objectives • Confusion/
conflict with exiting initiatives
• Indistinct boundaries
Key points
A great opportunity to: • work across disciplines • have substantial impact
by providing value to non-RCUK partners
• Influence the fast evolving RCUK research agenda
Questions ?