Defection & Desertion: Influence of Bigotry in 2016

Tracy Goodwin

Stony Brook University

Department of Political Science

• Elections are won by the side that mobilizes the most

partisans.

• Partisan identity and ideology drive vote choices

(Lewis-Beck et al., 2011).

• Partisan defection is declining (Smidt, 2017).

• The 2016 Presidential election was charged with racial

tensions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and bias against

women.

• Racial resentment influenced turnout and vote choice

for Obama (Krupnikov & Piston, 2015; Payne et al.,

2010).

• How did misogyny, anti-immigrant attitudes and

racial resentment influence 2016 turnout and vote

choice?

• The 2016 Presidential election was charged with

racism, misogyny and anti-immigrant sentiment.

• Prejudice is a powerful motivator for behavior.

• Partisan identity is a powerful motivator for voting.

• Conflict can arise in voters when prejudice and

partisanship influences operate in opposite directions.

• Prejudiced Democrats face a conflict between

voting for the in-party female candidate that

embraces immigrants and minorities versus voting

for the out-party candidate that is more consistent

with their attitudes.

• Non-prejudiced Republicans face a conflict

between voting for their party’s candidate who is

anti-immigrant, misogynistic, and accused of

racism versus the out-party candidate that is more

consistent with their attitudes.

• This could drive some partisans to either desert

their party and stay home on election day or defect

to the other party.

BACKGROUND

PURPOSE

Data

• American National Election Studies 2016

• Self-report vote choice and validated voter turnout.

• Misogyny (4-items), anti-immigrant attitudes (2-items), racial resentment (4-items)

• Vote coded as no vote, vote for Clinton, or vote for Trump

• Vote validation is used to determine if a respondent voted; then self-report vote choice is used

to determine which candidate the respondent voted for.

Analysis

• Multinomial logit predicting vote choice

• Separate models for Democrats and Republicans

• Controls: partisan identity strength, ideological self-placement, political interest, political

efficacy, contact by campaign or mobilization group, and demographics.

• Validated using American Life Panel data which produced the same results.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This research indicates that in 2016 prejudice against women, immigrants, and African-Americans

had significant impacts on turnout and vote choice. Democrats with negative attitudes towards

women, blacks, and immigrants were more likely to vote for Trump. Interestingly, misogyny did not

influence Republican’s turnout and vote choice instead positive attitudes towards blacks and

immigrants increased the likelihood of them voting for Clinton. Democrats were demobilized by

anti-immigrant sentiment while positive attitudes towards blacks demobilized Republicans.

1. Krupnikov, Y., & Piston, S. (2015). Racial prejudice, partisanship, and White

turnout in elections with Black candidates. Political Behavior, 37(2), 397-418.

2. Lewis-Beck, M. S., Norpoth, H., Jacoby, W., & Weisberg, H. The American voter

revisited. University of Michigan Press, 2008.

3. Payne, B. K., Krosnick, J. A., Pasek, J., Lelkes, Y., Akhtar, O., & Tompson, T.

(2010). Implicit and explicit prejudice in the 2008 American presidential

election. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 46(2), 367-374.

4. Smidt, C. D. (2017). Polarization and the decline of the American floating

voter. American Journal of Political Science, 61(2), 365-381.

• Prejudice against women, immigrants, and African-

Americans increased the probability of Democrats

defecting to Trump (2%, 8%, and 11% respectively).

• Democrats with negative immigrant attitudes deserted

Clinton and chose not to vote (32% increase).

• Misogyny did not effect Republican vote choice or

turnout.

• Republicans with positive immigrant and African-

American attitudes had increased probabilities of

defecting to Clinton (4% and 8% respectively).

• Republicans with positive immigrant and African-

American attitudes deserted and chose not to vote

(11% and 21% respectively).

RESULTS

ReferencesConclusion