demand for higher education programs june gray reports - dem… · -city and program 2. gray’s...
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Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Demand For Higher Education Programs
Results through June 2018
2
CAROL ASLANIANPresident and Founder
ABOUTASLANIAN MARKET RESEARCH
Carol Aslanian “wrote the book” (Americans in Transition) on why people 25+ go back to college and is a leading expert on the demands, preferences, and motivations of adult/post-traditional/online students.
• 250+ Market Analyses for colleges and universities• 6 Major Reports on trends in adult/post-traditional learning• 7 National Studies on the demands and preferences of online learners• 90 Professional Development Seminars for enrollment leaders
AMR STAFFHAVE PRODUCED:
Confidential 3
Who Is Gray?
Program and MarketEvaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
4Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research: Post-Traditional Graduate
Students4. Summary
Confidential 5
§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Gray has tracked demand for several years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 6
§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
§ Year-to-date searches have fallen 4%.
Google Search Trends: Programs
Program searches on Google are down 4% this year (January through June).
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches200 Largest Programs*
2016 2017 2018 2019
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
-4%
Confidential 7
§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
§ Searches fell 3% for June.
Google Search Trends: Programs
Program searches on Google are down 4% this year (January through June).
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches200 Largest Programs*
2016 2017 2018 2019
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
-3%
Confidential 8
§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.§ June searches decreased by 5%, in line with this year’s average.
Google Search Trends (Brands)
Brand searches continue to fall 5% year-over-year.
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018
Confidential 9
§ April volume rose 1% year-over-year.§ May volume rose 4% year-over-year.§ June volume rose 1% year-over-year.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiries continue to increase slightly year-over-year in 2018.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+ 1%
Confidential 10
§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 54%.§ Since then, conversion rates have fallen, but are still beating the baseline by 29%.§ However, conversion rates in Q1 2018 are 7% below last year.
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017 and Q1 2018, conversion1 rates were well above our 2014 baseline.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014) +54%
+29%
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the associated inquiry was received (i.e., a January inquiry that converts in March is counted as a January conversion). Typically, the conversion rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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§ As Q2 matures, conversions are likely to beat last year.
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For March 2018 inquiries, total conversions fell 13% year-over-year.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
Immature Months1
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 12
§ In June, prices fell from May’s high of $49.47 to $48.85.§ But they are up 6.7% year-over-year.
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For 15 out of the past 16 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.35 49.47 48.85 - - - - - -
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels
+6.7% YoY
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
In June, year-over-year spending dropped for 6 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
33%
14%
9%
6%
-7%
-9%
-23%
-25%
-28%
-35%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Psychology, General
Criminal Justice/Police Science
Health Care Administration
Business Administration and Management
HVAC
Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller
Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping
June 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
% Change Year Over Year
14Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary
Confidential 15
§ Inquiries for online programs have risen five of six months this year.
Inquiries for Online Programs
Inquiries for online programs grew 8% year-over-year in June.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+8%
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Heat Map of Online Year-over-Year Inquiries – by State
Year-over-year, June inquiries grew most quickly in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Maryland.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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Heat Map of Online 2018 Inquiries per Capita – by County
Inquiries per capita tend to be highest in rural areas. T he top five counties in 2018 per capita inquiries are located in Virginia (2), Georgia (2), and New Mexico (1).
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 18
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In June, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 18% year-over-year.
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-18% YoY
19Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary
Confidential 20
§ Los Angeles was up the most this month (17%).
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In June 2018, three of The Big 5 Cities grew inquiries year-over-year.
-13% -13%
-7% -8%
-26%
8% 5%
-6% -1%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
10% 15%
Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 21
§ Inquiries for three of The Big 5 fell–CJ fell 70%.§ Healthcare Administration and Medical Assisting grew–M.A. was up 64%.
The Big 5 Programs: May Growth Year-over-Year
The Big 5 Programs faired poorly in June.
13%
-70%
-16%
64%
-1%
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
20% 40% 60% 80%
Healthcare Administration
Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Administration
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 22
The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 50% or more.
128% 110% 108%
57% 53%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Health Professions and Related
Programs
Electrical Engineering
Cybersecurity Hospitality Administration
Liberal Arts and Sciences
The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in June Inquiries
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 23
Fastest-growing Programs
Searches for Aesthetician programs continued their rapid growth.
16%
16%
17%
18%
25%
25%
28%
36%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Health/Health Care Administration/Management
Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance …
Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering …
Surgical Technology/Technologist
Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and Instructor
Medical Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiation …
Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist
Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist
Fastest-growing ProgramsJune Google Searches
Confidential 24
§ Hospitality-related programs also faired poorly.
Shrinking Programs
Search volumes for several teaching programs fell over 20%.
-68%
-46%
-44%
-40%
-35%
-28%
-27%
-24%
-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Hotel/Motel Administration/Management
Education, General
Hospitality Administration/Management, General
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies
Elementary Education and Teaching
Chemistry, General
Teacher Education, Multiple Levels
Fastest-declining ProgramsJune Google Searches
Confidential 25
§ Three of the top 10 are for-profits.
Fastest-growing Brands
The fastest-growing brands include very different schools.
7%
8%
10%
10%
13%
16%
16%
20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
University of Kansas
University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus
University of Wyoming
College for America, SNHU
Florida Career College
Western Governors University
West Coast University
Universal Technical Institute
Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches
26Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary
Confidential 27
Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard
Confidential 28
Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard
Confidential 29
Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard
Confidential 30
Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard
31Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary
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Two Reports
WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL STUDENTS?
UndergraduateReport,2017 GraduateReport,2018
Avai lab le Here : educat iondynamics .com/e-books
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WHO AREPost-Traditional Graduate Students?• Not enrolled in a daytime, full-time
or residential degree program
• Not necessarily “adult learners”
• More than 70% of the graduate student population
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National Study Methodology
WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS?
• 1,500studentsnationwide
• Anyage…butifunder25:notfull-time,day,residential(thisisourpost-traditionalscreeningcriteria)
• Enrolledingraduatestudyinpastthreeyears,currentlyenrolled,orplantoenrollinnext12months
• Studyofdemand– notneed.Scott
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Demographics
WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS?
Age22oryounger 2%23-24 3%25-29 26%30-34 23%35-39 16%40-44 9%45-49 7%50-55 7%Over55 6%
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66% 14% 11%
6% 1% 1%
CaucasianAfrican-American
HispanicAsianorPacific…
NativeAmericanOtherbackground
EmploymentStatus
Employedfulltime 71%
Employedparttime 12%
Not employed 13%
Retired 3%
WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS?Demographics
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Tren d s – How Far I s Th e ir On l in e I n s t i tu t ion ?
DistancefromInstitutionOnline
GraduateStudentsLessthan50milesaway 53%50to100milesaway 19%101-250milesaway 5%Morethan100milesaway 7%Morethan250milesaway 10%Notsure 7%
Key Takeaway : O n l ine s tuden t s p re f e r t o s t udy a t an i n s t i t u t i on t ha t i s l oca l and known to t hem .
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
38
Trends – Preferred Course Format
Fullyclassroomcourses29%
Partiallyonline/hybrid
courses43%
Fullyonlinecourses27%
Key Takeaway :M a jo r i t y o f
pos t -t r ad i t i ona l
g r adua te s tuden t s p re f e r
s om e l eve l o f on l ine s tudy .
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
39
Full vs Part TimePOST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
Full-time66%
Part-time34%
40
Trends in Recent/Current Program FormatPOST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
25%
23%
19%
19%
14%
Allonlinecourses,novisitstocampus
Allonlinecourses,withoneormorefull-dayvisitstocampus(lowresidenceprograms)
Amixofclassroom,hybrid,andonlinecourses
Allhybridcourses(requiringregularclassroomandonlineinstruction)
Allclassroomcourses
41
Trends – Preferred Course Length
8% 8%
6% 22%
8% 16%
1% 16%
15%
5orfewer
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13ormoreweeks
Median– 8-9Weeks
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
42
Trends – Importance of Support Services
40% 30% 29% 28% 27%
24% 23%
21% 19%
17% 12% 11%
Libraryresources24/7techsupport
ResearchassistanceFacultyacademicadvising
Careerplanning/placement…Peerstudygroups
BookstoreTutoring
StudentnetworkingeventsCareerfairs/eventsorganized…
NewstudentorientationHealth/wellnesscounseling…
K e y Ta k e a w a y :E n ro l l m e n t ( a n d re t e n t i o n ) d e p e n d o n s t u d e n t s ’ a b i l i t y t o c o m p l e t e t h e i r s t u d i e s .
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
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Trends – How do they pay?
CoursePaymentMethods
UsedPaymentMethod Primary
SecondaryMethods
Personal/familyfunds 47% 66% 34%Studentloans 38% 56% 44%Privateloans(fromabank) 22% 51% 49%Governmentgrants 27% 59% 41%Privatethird-partyscholarships 11% 40% 60%Employertuitionsupportbenefits 24% 61% 39%Other 1% 86% 14%K e y Ta k e a w a y : U n l i k e p a s t d e c a d e s , p o s t - t r a d i t i o n a l g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s a re f a r m o re l i k e l y t o re l y o n l o a n s , g r a n t s a n d o t h e r s o u rc e s t o d a y.
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
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Tren d s – Mos t I m p or t an t Fac t ors in En ro l lm en t
Post-TraditionalGraduateStudents
Costoftuitionandfees 52%Reputationofthecollegeorprogram 36%Professionalaccreditationofmyprogram 34%Availabilityofonlineprograms 32%Lengthoftimetocompletemystudies 30%Locationwheremycoursesareoffered/available 29%Availabilityofflexibleformats(online,hybrid,low-residence…) 26%Availabilityofacceleratedcourses 20%Availabilityofgraduateassistantships 16%Recommendationsoffriends,family,associates 13%Recommendedbymyemployer 11%
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
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Trends – Market ing Channels
TopMarketingChannelsPost-Traditional
GraduateStudentsCommercials(Television) 36%Email 29%Searchengines(paidandorganic) 27%CollegeFairs 22%DisplayAdvertisements 22%SocialMediaAdvertising 20%
Key Takeaway : En s u re t h a t yo u r m a r ke t i n g m ix h a s bo th t r ad i t i ona l and new m ed ia . You can no l onger avo id d ig i t a l m ar ke t i ng !
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
46
Tren d s – Mob i l e Pres en ce Mat t er s f or S earch !
Notatall19%
Some 48%
Almostall23%
All 11%
MobileHeavy
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
47
Trends – How Many Schools?
RECRUITING POST-TRADTIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
NumberofInstitutions
Post-TraditionalGraduateStudents
Considered/Inquired Applied
1 21% 40%
2 35% 41%
3ormore 44% 19%
48
Tr e n d s – E n r o l l m e n t i n 1 s t I n s t i t u t i o n t o O f f e r A c c e p t a n c e
RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS
Yes84%
No 16%
K e y Ta k e a w a y :S u c c e s s r e l i e s o n y o u r a b i l i t y t o o p t i m i z e y o u r c o n t a c t / e n r o l l m en t s t r a t e g y . Yo u a r e c o m p e t i n g f o r s t u d e n t s a s y o u n e v e r h a v e b e f o r e .
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For addit ional information, support resources or questions , p lease contact Carol Aslanian at
[email protected] or 201-377-3321
You can also vis i t our websi te : educationdynamics.com
Referenced Reports : educationdynamics.com/e-books
CONTACT US FOR A FREE STRATEGY DISCUSSION
HOW CAN WE HELP?
50Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary
Confidential 51
§ The decline in total inquiries seems to be slowing.
- Google search volumes are off just 3%
- Gray inquiries are flat
- This reflects declining interest in on-ground and rising demand for online.
§ Conversion rates and conversions are now declining year-over-year.
§ Prices for inquiries are rising.
§ Non-traditional graduate students are a unique segment.
- Employed, married and raising kids
- Prefer local online with some on-campus work.
§ In this environment, you will need:
- Great data to inform decisions on programs and markets to invest in.
- The ability to take share, so you can sustain enrollment in a declining market.
Key Demand Trends and Observations
Confidential 52
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins
CEOGray Associates, Inc.
[email protected]@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
Confidential 53
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