Demographic Change and Demographic Change and Challenges for Social Challenges for Social

PolicyPolicyin the UK and Europein the UK and Europe

What is Demographic Analysis?DEMOGRAPHY IS ANALYSIS OF SIZE AND

STRUCTURES OF POPULATION OVER TIME CENTRAL TO POLICY PLANNING DIFFERENT GROUPS IN THE POPULATION

-DIFFERENT NEEDS -DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR -DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF CONSUMPTION

MAJOR STRATEGIC CONCERNS-

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WORKING/DEPENDENT POPULATIONS/SIZE OF LABOUR FORCE

UNDULATIONS IN BIRTH RATES PRODUCE PEAKS AND TROUGHS IN DEMANDS FOR PARTICULAR SERVICES ETC. AS COHORTS PROGRESS ACROSS THE AGE STRUCTURE

Thinking demographically

• Fertility rates/mortality rates

• Replacement rate (2.1)

• Dependency ratios

• Natural population increase migration/inmigration

• Household formation

• Household dissolution

Strategic/Political Importance

• Geo-politics of demographic ‘weight’-ie.the relative size of populations

• Pro-natalist policies

• Size of the labour force

• Structure of demand/consumption/internal markets

EUROPE`S DECLINING POPULATIONEUROPE`S DECLINING POPULATION

“Some countries, like Spain, Italy and Japan, have fallen so far below replacement fertility that their total population in each successive generation will be more than 30 per cent smaller than in the previous one. Absent large-immigration from less-developed countries, Japan and much of Europe will be losing population at a rate of well over 1 per cent per year, year after year, until they dwindle to a fraction of their current sizes towards the end of the 21st century.” (Frances Fukayama, 1999,The Great Disruption)

EUROPE`S DECLINING WORKING EUROPE`S DECLINING WORKING POPULATIONPOPULATION

EUROPE`S EUROPE`S AGING AGING

POPULATIONPOPULATION

Shifting Dependency RatiosShifting Dependency Ratios

Delayed departure from the Delayed departure from the parental home-Englandparental home-England

Other key trends/issues

• Rising divorce rates-nearly one divorce for every two marriages in the EU25

• Increasing cohabitation-one third of all babies born outside marriage in the EU25

• Rising lone parenthood• Later age at marriage

Major policy issues

• A mobile Europe?

-low levels of mobility between EU states over last three decades

-will enlarged EU change this situation?• Pensions and retirement-ageing

populations/longevity/falling proportion of working population relative to total population