demographic change in saxony

1

Saxony Liaison Office BrusselsDemographic Change in Saxony and the Demographic Change Regions Network (DCRN)

| 19. Juli 2013 | Sachsen-Verbindungsbro Brssel2

DCRNDemographic Change It happens

Aldi offers:

if Aldi reacts its seriousbusiness

2


Demographic Change It happens

DCRN

German tabloid bild.de:

Dramatic Development

Frightened by thecrisis: Less Babys throughout Europe



DCRN

Always in the media:

Free State needs moreflats for he elderly

2030 a third of Saxonyspopulation will be part of

the generation 65+

or Need for more age-appropriate flats

or we are running out of flats for the elderly

3



Team Meeting

Eat! When you area grown-up you

have to feed 1,3 pensioners!

DCRN



You havearrived at

yourdestination!

NEW! Senior Citizens BirthdayParties at McDonalds!

Whoorderedthe buryBurger? I ordered

a Happy Last Meal!

DCRN

4



-14,01 9342 244Thringen

-2,02 7762 829Schleswig-Holstein

-16,11 9772 352Sachsen-Anhalt

-9,43 7784 165Sachsen

-10,29181 022Saarland

-2,83 9004 014Rheinland-Pfalz

-4,317 11217 870Nordrhein-Westfalen

-4,87 5467 920Niedersachsen

-10,81 4731 649Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

-3,05 8816 047Hessen

4,41 8531 778Hamburg

-2,5645660Bremen

-6,22 3552 509Brandenburg

-2,03 3733 419Berlin

0,712 59412 512Bayern

-1,010 64010 740Baden-Wrttemberg

%in 1.000

Change20252009Inhabitants

DCRN

Quellen: Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, Statistisches Bundesamt - 31.12.2009: Bevlkerungsfortschreibung; 2025: 12. koord. Bevlkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 1-W1 (Wert fr Sachsen entspricht der 5. Regionalisierten Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1); Gebietsstand 01.01.10, Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35



DCRN

Sources: Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011:

Bevlkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 5. Regionalisierten Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen

Population Development in the Free State of Saxony 1990 until 2025

5


Demographic Change Its happensLabour force potential is declining!Development of the labour force potential until compared

with the year 2010 (2010 = 100 %)

DCRN

Sources: Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 1990-2011:

Bevlkerungsfortschreibung - jeweils zum 31.12.; 2012-2025: Daten aus der 5. Regionalisierten Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen



DCRNBirths per Woman in the Free State of Saxony 1990 2011

Sources: Grafik: Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen

*altersspezifische Geburtenziffern fr Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 45 Jahren

Hinweis: ab 2008 altersspezifische Geburtenziffern fr Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 50 Jahren

6



1,261,291,21HH

1,271,311,24HB

1,281,261,24SL

1,311,351,19B

1,341,361,36BY

1,361,381,36BW

1,361,401,39NRW

1,361,391,35D

1,371,381,36RP

1,371,451,40SH

1,381,421,43NI

1,391,401,36HE

1,401,411,26ST

1,411,451,28BB

1,411,431,29TH

1,411,481,34MV

1,481,491,34SN

201120102004

Number of children per woman

Sources: Daten - Statistisches Bundesamt, eigene Berechnungen; Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35

DCRN

*altersspezifische Geburtenziffern fr Frauen im Alter von 15 bis unter 50 Jahren,


Demographic Change It happensProjection of the Population Development until 2025 compared to 2011 (5th regional

Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 1

DCRN

Sources:Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevlkerungsfortschreibung; 2025:

5. Regionalisierte Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 1; Gebietsstand 01.01.12

-8,73.777,54.137,1Freistaat Sachsen

-10,8182,0204,2LK Nordsachsen

-8,8241,8265,3LK Leipzig

1,3538,6531,8KFS Leipzig

-7,5232,2250,9LK Schsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge

-10,9223,9251,3LK Meien

-15,1232,1273,5LK Grlitz

-14,2273,5318,6LK Bautzen

4,6554,0529,8KFS Dresden

-14,7288,5338,3LK Zwickau

-15,2205,0241,6LK Vogtlandkreis

-14,6277,5324,9LK Mittelsachsen

-15,5307,3363,7LK Erzgebirgskreis

-9,1221,1243,2KFS Chemnitz

%In 1.000

Change20252011Population

7


Demographic Change It happensDCRN

Projection of the Population Development until 2025 in the municipalities (5th regional Population Developmet Projection, Variantion 2

Sources:Grafik - Schsische Staatskanzlei, Ref. 35Daten - Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen - 31.12.2011: Bevlkerungsfortschreibung; Gebietsstand 01.01.12; 2025: 5. Regionalisierte Bevlkerungsprognose fr den Freistaat Sachsen bis 2025, Variante 2; Hinweis: Prognoseergebnisse werden nur fr Gemeinden verffentlicht, die am 31. Dezember 2008 mindestens 5 000 Einwohner hatten.

Hoyerswerda


Demographic Change Trends and Facts in Saxony

Since 2011 more people coming to Saxony than leaving (esp. to Dresden, Leipzig, Chemnitz, education migrants [Bildungswanderer])

Since 2010 highest brith-rate of all German Lnder (2011: 1,48 Geburten per woman)

Cities of Dresden und Leipzig growing (some of the surrounding suburbs aregrowing in places)

Population density right at the German average (D=229; Saxony=225) Longer life in a healthy condition

2nd with regard to the average age of the population of the German Lnder (2011: 47 years)

Rural, peripheral areas regions are shrinkings and ageing relatively fast (border regions to Poland and the Czech Republic etc.)

Population decline esp. In rural areas and industrial areas in decline Ageing of the people that are economically active (Problem of skilled

labour force/ young professionals)

DCRN(+)

(-)

8


History of the Town Development

WK 10 1986 - 90

KhnichtWK 9Grnewaldring 1973 - 75

WK 81966 - 72

WK 11957 - 64

WK 3eWK 2

HistoricCenter

1975 1957 - 64 WK 3

1959 - 61

Klein ZeiigNew Town Center WK 4

1968 - 95 1961 - 64

WK 5 1962 - 64

WK 5e 1962 - 75

WK 7 1965 - 66

WK 61964 - 65

1423 Town Charter

Industrial Revolution at the end of the19th - upswing (brown coal mining, glas industry and railway)

1955 Start of the assembling of the thecombine/collective power plant Schwarze Pumpe (Black Pump)

1957 Laying of the foundation stone of theNeustadt (New Town) on theEastern Banks of the Schwarze Elster River and start of theincorporation controlled/steeredimmigration

1989/1990 The Turnaround - Start of a fundamental change of the econmicstructures


Spatial Context

Cottbus

Mining Structures Spatial Context LausitzerSeenland (Lusatian Lakeland)

District of Bautzen

BautzenDresden

9


Development of Hoyerswerda - aerial photo comparison 1953 and 2002

Seidewinkel

Khnicht

Historic Town Center

1953 2002Seidewinkel

Historic Town Center Khnicht


Population Development with the current area of the municipality with prognosis until 2030

80.000 74.481

70.000 62.908

60.00060.595

50.000 50.203

40.000 42.607

29.431 33.180

30.000 18.783

1998 last Incorporation

20.000 13.538 23.410 10.000 4.430

0 Prognose

Population in the current area of the municipality 5th regional Prognosis. Var. 1

Var. 2 Prognosis Bertelsmann-Foundation

Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, 5. Regionalisierte Bevlkerungsprognose V1 und V2, Prognose Bertelsmann-Stiftung

Whereas the decline of population in Saxony is mainly caused by a low birth rate, Hoyerswerda was hit by an exodus since 1990. This exodus is slowing down since 2003. The birth deficit will level at -400 p.a. in Hoyerswerda.

71.484

36.616

1980: The populationshas grown since 1957 through immigration(400% increase)

1990: The migrationsarts due to economicreasons

On 31.12.2011 31.800 inhabitants lesscompared to 1990 areliving in Hoyerswerda.

10


Alter in Jahren

100

Comparison of the population structure 95 90

85 Average age of the population of Hyerswerda 1990 until 2009 and prognosisuntil 2025 in years

1990 35,2

1995 38,9

2000 42,9

2005 46,8

2009 49,7

2015 53,1

2020 55,1

2025 56,5

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10 20095 2025

0

mnnlich

600 400 200 0 0 200 400 600

People weiblich Saxony

Germany2009

43,0 Jahre

45,7 Jahre Comparison of the population 31.12.2009 and 2025

Quelle: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen, 5. Regionalisierte Bev. Prognose, Var. 1 und Var. 2 gleiche Werte

Since 1990 thepopulation of theage group 0-30

reduced byabove 70 percent.

Whereas the age group above 60

grew by 65 percent since

1990.


Deepening of the objectives of the deconstructin in the integrated

urband development concept (INSEK) 2008 - Hoyerswerda New Town

Almost complete deconstruction planned realisation until 2020 WK 9 and WK 10

Extensive deconstruction partly finishedConnected parts of housing areas, (e. g. WK 8, New Town Center)

Small scale deconstruction finished provisionallyGroups of houses (e.g. WK 4, 5e, WK 6, WK 7)

Selective deconstruction not finishedSingle houses (e.g. WK 3, WK 4, WK 5)

93,50 ha, which need to be unsealed The deconstruction is demand responsive. There is no statutory requirement for deconstruction.

General consideration of the goals of the deconstruction in the zonig plan of 2006

11


Housing Units and Vacancies

100%

6,3 % 5,7 %

6,0 %

8,3 %95%

11,4 %10,1 %

16,4 % 14,2 %

18,3 %

13,9 %

17,9 % 17,4 %

90%

85%

80%

75% 1990 2011 2010 2009 2008 20062005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995

Vacancies 992 1.173 1.314 1.791 2.6293.353 3.549 4.434 4.829 4.876 4.597 1.654 0 Total Housing Units 24.142 27.444 27.027 20.221 20.96521.704 22.99524.969 25.541 26.404 27.200 28.108

Empty Accommodation Units total Accommodation Units

2007

2.264

22.482 20.570

4,9 %

Stabilizing the Housing Market

Deconstruction with the goal to have an useful cityscape and improvement of the areas hit by deconstruction

Strenghening of the historic city center and the areas that areworthy to be preserved

Deconstruction projects are processed in a close communicationprocess with the large scale landlords and the public utilitiesproviders meeds constant updating.

The current planned deconstruction process until 2020 includes12.100 accomodation units.


Deconstruction of housing units in figures

until31.12.

m2/year in 5 years

until31.12. total

(cumulative)( cumulative)

Total m2Living spaceTotal WEHousing Units

(WE) in 5 years

Year

1993 - 2000 465 465 24.291 24.291

2001 - 2005 4.138 4.603 236.990 261.281

2006 - 2010 3.889 8.492 218.257 479.538

since 2011 389 8.881 22.080 501.618

12


Deconstruction of Housing Units in the Residental

Complexes1.226Monitoring Deconstruction Hoyerswerda, total, 31.12.2011

1.796

1.683

150

251 485

New Town: 8.291 WE

Historic Center: 485 WE

Knappenrode: 86 WE

Other parts: 19 WE

304

1.392 299

559

Total deconstruction in New Town until 2025 ~12.095 WE

(Accomodation Units)

443

188

Adaption of the numer of accomodation units to the population

development!


Objective of the Zoning Plan

Finished

Deconstruction of

housing units, esp. in

New Town (12/2011)

Large Scale Deconstruction

WK 10

WK 9

WK 8

WK 1

WK 2 WK 3

Stand 12/2011

Deconstruction

Existing housing UnitsWK 6 + 7 WK 5

Small Scale Deconstruction

The deconstruction isdemand responsive. There isno statutory requirement for

deconstruction.

WK 4

13


Hoyerswerda

Aerial Photo 2001

Display of the large scaledeconstruction until 31.12.2011

WK 8, 9 und 10


New Town Center 2000

14


Strae des Friedens 21-24 demolished 2008now: Campus Meadow

Strae des Friedens 14-18 demolished2006, now: Park wirh BeachvolleyballCourts, builtt 2007

Leon-Foucault-Grammar School , refurbished 2000 to 2003

Bautzener Allee 32 b, c, d demolished 2000, now: Garden of Sculptures, built 2009

Urban restructuring New Town Center

Strae des Friedens 9-12 demolished 2007 now: family park, built 2009

Einstein-Strae 1 - 5 demolished 2001

Stadtpromenade 1-10 and 12 demolished 2002 to 2004 nowCentral parkStadtpromenade 11 refurbished2009 - 2012 and now Lausitztower

Virchowstr. 59 demolished2007

Virchowstr. 37-41; 46-49 from 2007 to 2008 restructured

Virchowstr. 53-57, refurbished 2007

Virchowstr. 42-45; 50-52 partlydemolished in 2006


2009 Development of the new

Zentalpark (Central park)

Awarded Project of the

competition

Gardens in the City 2011

2011

2008

18.06.2013 Stadtentwicklungsvortrag 39

15


New development for the deconstruction areas

Garden of sculpturesChildrens traffic park WK 3

Beachvolleycourt

Family Park


Redesigning the residental areas in the

Neustadt (New town)

16


Redevelopment of residental buildings

von


Examples of Communication of the urban

restructuring

Workshops Cooperation Working Group

Urban Restructuring

Expertmeetings

Exhibition of the results

Informationcenter

Orange Box

External and internal effects!

17


FOKUSGRUPPE

Stdtebau, Wohnen,

Verkehr

Time Out: Thinking about H.Postcards 2013

WALLI A smart flat for the elderlyVirtual tour: http://www.lebensraeume-hy.de/aktuelles/news/modellwohnung-walli-in-echt-und-virtuell-begehbar.html

Vision and Future Strategy Hoyerswerda 2025

- Active Citizens and Companies

The multi-awarded Kulturfabrik Hoyerswerda (Culture Factory) doing impressive projects dealingwith demography:

http://www.kufa-hoyerswerda.de/auszeit-nachdenken-uber-h.html and on youtube


Vision and Future Strategy Hoyerswerda 2025

18


1. Two administrative reforms on district level since 1990 (1995 und 2008)

2. One statutory municipal territory reform (1998/1999) 3. A wide range administrative- and functional

reform(2008) 4. over 800 schools shut down 5. Solid budgetary/fiscal policy (debt per capita 2010:

2.847 [Bavaria 3.380, Northrhine-Westphalia 12.775) 6. Further adaption measures (cessation of local rail

transport, thinning of public transport, urban restructuring (e. g. demolition of accomoodation units))

7. Further development and expansion of theinfrastructures (e.g. Transport, Universties) concentrated in the three big cities of Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz

DCRNApproach in Saxony: structure policy


DCRN1.Funding Guideline Demography2.All-day offers in schools3.Week days companion of the SMS ( started 20.03.2013) 4.Programme Open-minded Saxony5.Competition Impulsive regions of the SMI (started 21.05.2013) 6.Support of volunteer work (Funding Guideline of the SMS We forSaxony) 7.Generations Award of the Prime Minister Together8.Demography Award of the saxon craft guild 2012, 2013 9.

Approach in Saxony: : topic related measures

19


Funding Guideline Demography

Funding Guideline since 2007

Goal of the Funding Guideline ist to test and supportideas and new ways, that could help to organise and shape the demographic change in Saxony in a positveway

Broad variety of project partners: Municipalities, Associations, Clubs, etc.

Since 2007 over 100 projekts were funded ( 5,0 Mio. Euro)

Per year 20 Ppojects are implemented

DCRN


DCRN1.Demography-and innovation partnership of the cities of Colditz Geithain Kohren-Sahlis Rochlitz 2.Feasibility Study of a Citizens Bus Service in theRegionLommatzscher Pflege3.Health-Management in the social and educational sector Distric of North SaxonyLandkreis Nordsachsen 4.Social Signpost for the District Ore Montains5.Demographic action- and communication concept Ebersbach 2030 6.Future Chances im Town-Network Upper Lusatia-Lower Silesia7.Local Mobility Project Bahretal8.Kids-Shuttle Wittichenau 9.Innovative Sewerage Concept Espenhain Sewer and Water Board 10.Citizens Bus Erlbach 11.and many more

Selection of projects of the Funding Guideline Demography

20


DCRNSelection of projects of the Funding Guideline Demography

Municipality of Weisswasser Improved fire-fighting and fire-

prevention through intercommunalco-operation

TU Chemnitz (University of Technology)

Demographic change in the world of work/employment

TU Dresden (University of Technology)

Well supplied in the ruralareas


DCRN

21


Objective is a location-independent virtual access to administration while guaranteeing a personal contact to administrative staff.

Target Groups:

Citizens and Companies in rural areas,

The elder generation and disabled persons.

The service contains:

Reception of Information related to administrative processes zu Verwaltungsvorgngen,

the mobile bzw. digital handling of administrative processes.

Timeline: Currently the mobile citizens services areimplemented succesively in several municipalities.

Creation and expansionof modern administration portals/gatewaysMobile citizens services


Project development: The municipalities start the

implementation of the citizensterminal succesively dependingon how theyve progressed with theproject.

Specific technical functions: Authentication Videoconference Split screen mode Accepting applications Scan and Print Collection of charges/fees,

costs and expenses

Creation and expansionof modern administration portals/gatewaysMobile citizens services: Citizens terminal

22


Possible bersions of the mobile citizens office are:

Mobile Citizens service (e. g. in a van),

Stationary citizens offices (e.g. in shopping malls, nursing homes etc.),

Home visits (with the citizens office in a trolley case).

Specific technical functions are:

Authentication, fingerprint reader for nPA

(new id),

Accepting applications,

Scan and print,

Collection of charges/fees, cost and expenses.

The pilot phase hase started in summer 2012.

Creation and expansionof modern administration portals/gatewaysMobile citizens services: Mobile Citizens Office

http://www.staatsmodernisierung.sachsen.de/295.html


DCRN

23


DCRNDemography Test Since 2011 all projects coming to the SaxonCabinet (Meeting of the Ministers) have to be checked


DCRN

www.demografie.sachsen.de

24


DCRNGerman Census 2011 Some results and effects for Saxony

4,06 Millionen Inhabitants on May, 9th 2011, 84.400 less htan the official figures of April ,30th (Change by -2,0%, Germany -1,9%)

Correction of the number of inhabitants of the municipalities belonging to a district: 376 municipalities wit a lower number of inhabitants, 57 with a higher number of inhabitants, 2 withoutcorrection

in 17 municipalities the attribution to the mucipal size class changes, 16 are going down one level For the most regulation is a protection of the status-quo until the end of hat elegislation periods

(Full-time Mayor, Payment of the Mayor, Number of town coucillors, Size of the town council) Effects on the fiscal equalisation scheme and the revenues of the Lnder (States) Adaptions in the financial situation/ funding of the minicipalities The corrections lead to no changes in the bases and the updating of the federal state development

plan, since they are not that significant Census 2011 central basis for the Actions of Politics and Administration

Census - Leipzig loses revenues

amounting to 19 Mio. Euro

Citiesprotesting

against resultsof the cencus

Becausethey fear lessfunding, 27

municipalitieshaving doubts

concerningthe new

populationdata



Regionale Bevlkerungs-vorausschtzungen, Bevlkerungs- vernderung, nach NUTS-2-Regionen, zwischen 2008 bis 2030

Source: EUROSTAT - Jahrbuch der Regionen 2010

DCRN

Regional Population Projection, Population Change, NUTS-2-Regions, between 2008 until 2030

25



DCRN"Demographic Risk Map" of the Rostock Research Center for the Study

of Demographic Change: Mapping the RDC Type, 2004-2030

I: Shrinking/lower growth, faster ageing

II: Shrinking/ lower growth, slower ageing

III: Higher growth, slower ageing

IV: Higher growth, faster ageing

Data Source: Eurostat and National Statistics Offices; own calculations.

EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries

The RDC Index measures the extent of regional demographic changewithin a period.

http://www.demographic-risk-map.eu/demographic_change.aspx


DCRNwww.dcrn.eu

[email protected]

DemographicChange RegionsNetwork

26


Activities of the network

The Fourth Demography Forum, 6 and 7 May 2013, Brussels

Presentation at a common stand

Providing high-level speakers to the european commission and presentation of the network and the regional activities of the member regions:

Marcus Frequin (Dutch ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Affairs)

Marianne Besselink (Reg Minister, Groningen)

Johannes Beermann (Staatsminister, Sachsen)

DCRN


Want to become a part of DCRN?

Contact the DCRN for more information on the

future events and activities:

Homepage of DCRN network: www.dcrn.eu

E-mail: [email protected]

or contact

Andreas KhlSaxon State Ministry of Justice and for European

AffairsSaxony Liaison Office Brussels

T: +32 (0)2 235.87.31F: +32 (0)2 235.87.22

[email protected]

Demographic Change in Saxony:

www.demografie.sachsen.de

Demographic Change.

demographic change in saxony

Documents

the free state of saxony

the media

part of the generation

schsische staatskanzlei

statistisches bundesamt

third of saxonyspopulation

or need for more age

up youhave to feed