demographic change, segregation and social urban...
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Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Demographic Change, Segregation andSocial Urban Renewal
from a North Rhine-Westphalian perspective
Presentation at theInternational Symposium
„Coping with City Shrinkage and Demographic Change –Lessons from around the globe“
Evelyn Sucato
Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development, Building and Constructionof the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia (ILS NRW)
Department for Urban Development and Housing
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Contents
1. Demographic Change in North Rhine-Westphalia
2. Segregation processes in North Rhine-Westphalian cities
3. Approaches
4. Conclusions
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Dem
ogra
phic
Cha
nge
in N
orth
Rhi
ne-W
estp
halia
Population Development in North Rhine-Westphalia 1975 - 2001
Since the 1970ies population lossesin the Ruhr-Area
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Population Change in North Rhine-Westphalia 2002 - 2020D
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tpha
lia
2006: 18.08 million
2020: 17.95 million
2040: 16.89 million
Source: ILS
-trends2/04
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Development and Prognosis of the age structure in the citiesD
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tpha
lia
15,618,5
22,5
17,116,814,2
11,57,6
5,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 2000 2020
Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Landtag NRW 2005: 48, Daten LDS NRW
under 19
60 - 74
older than 75
Cities
%
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Development of the population older than 75 yearsD
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tpha
lia Proportion in 2002 Change of Proportion 2002 – 2020 in %
Source: ILS
-trends2/04
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Development of households 2002 – 2040 according to their sizeD
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tfalia
16 15,6 14,6 13,6 12,9 12,6 12,5 12,4 12,3
14 13,6 13,1 12,6 12,2 11,9 11,7 11,7 11,7
33,9 34,3 35 35,5 36,3 36,8 36,7 36,4 35,9
36,2 36,5 37,3 38,3 38,6 38,7 39 39,5 40,1
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
1 person
2 persons
3 persons
4 and morepersons
Householdswith
Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach LDS NRW 2005: 7
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Change of inhabited housing units compared to the preceding yearD
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tfalia
Source: eigene D
arstellung nach LDS
NR
W 2005: 9
-137.000
-112.000
-37.030-41.030
+10.000
+53.030+52.000
+27.030
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
142.000or 2 %
7.4 million
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Development of vacancies in North Rhine-Westphalian housing companiesD
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tfalia
0,20,4
1,1
22,3
2,7
1,71,9
1,7
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: eigene D
arstellung nach Wfa
2005
%
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Proportion of non-Germans in NRWD
emog
raph
icC
hang
e in
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tfalia
But on local level:
Dortmund 12.7 %Dortmund Nordstadt 41.5 %
Duisburg 14.9 %Duisburg Marxloh 33.8 %
and more…
Source: LDS, Beiträge Band 819; Basisvariante der Prognose
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1998 2015 2040
Year
%
insgesamt 0-19
11,4 %13,0 %
18,7 %
18,6 %
27,5 %
40,4 %
total
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
„A-Factor“ and „Wealth-Factor“ in cities and counties in NRWS
egre
gatio
n pr
oces
ses
in N
orth
Rhi
ne-W
estfa
lian
citie
s
Wohlstandsfaktor (bes. verf. Einkommen)
3,02,01,00,0-1,0-2,0
Arm
e, A
lte, A
rbei
tslo
se, A
uslä
nder
, abn
. Bev
.
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
,5
0,0
-,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
Un
So
Si
Oe
Mk
Hsk
En
HER
HAM
HA
DO
BO
Pb
MiDt
Hx
Hf
Gt
BI
Waf
St
Re
Coe
Bor
MS
GE
BOT
Su
GlGmHs
Eu
BmDn
Ac
LEV
K
BN
AC
Wes
Vie
Ne
Me
Kle
W
SGRs
OB
MHMG
KR
EDU
D
„A-F
acto
r“
„Wealth-Factor“
Source: ILS
NR
W S
chrift 201: 33
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Ethnic Segregation, „familiy status“und social status in Essen and Gelsenkirchen
Seg
rega
tion
proc
esse
sin
Nor
th R
hine
-Wes
tfalia
nci
ties
Source: ILS
NR
W S
chrift 201: 52
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Approaches
The socially integrative city
Stadtumbau West
• Stabilisation of deprived urban ares and hinder further polarisation
• Recreation and stimulation of the functional cohesion of deprived urban areas
• Catalysts: multiple deprivation, bad life circumstances, segregation
• Catalysts: high vacancies in the housing market and in shops, derelict sites, loss of functions in inner cities
• In North Rhine Westphalia since 1993
• In West Germany since 2004
More information on:
www.sozialestadt.de
www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de
More information on:
www.stadtumbauwest.de
pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Renewal ofhousing stock
and sourroundingDortmund Clarenberg
Source: Cornelia Suhan
Community centre„Alte Heid“
in Oberhausen Knappenviertel
…aftermoder-
nisation in Hamm-Norden
Theater in Gelsenkirchen
Bismarck/Schalke-Nord
Local Caféin Monheim Berliner
ViertelSource: Joachim Bastan
Partner-ship
office in BergheimSüd/West
pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de
Area improvement / Infrastructure - Impressions
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Image / Participation / Networking - Impressions
Logo inSiegen
Fischbacherberg
Communityfestival
inDortmundNordstadt
Participationof residents in
Aachen Ost
Interest group ofresident in
Düren Südost
Communitynewspaper
in HerneHorsthausen
„Marketof different
Cultures“in Duisburg
Marxloh
pictures from www.soziale-stadt.nrw.de
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Restructuring / Demolition / Adjustment - Impressions
before and after „Stadtumbau“ in Gelsenkirchen Tossehof and Oer Erkenschwick Schillerparkpictures from www.schillerpark.info and www.stadtumbauwest.de/konzept/PW_Albstadt_Kemper.pdf
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Conclusions
• The current West-German perspective on demographic changes isdifferent than the East-German as a result of a lower pressure on thehousing market amongst others. But the future will bring similar effects, so we have to act preventive.
• The perception of long-term population decline and other effects of thedemograpic changes is sometimes still low – especially on local level. Therefore it is necessary to get more awareness from local politics on the topic.
• As demographic change is a multi-dimensional phenomenon we have to consider all aspects at the same time. Integrated area-based approachesand concepts are proven approach but we need to widen theseapproaches city-wide and also integrate regional aspects.
Demographic Change, Segregation and Social Urban Renewalfrom a North Rhine-Westfalian perspective
31st March 2006 – Evelyn Sucato
Thank you!
Contact:
ILS NRWEvelyn SucatoPhone: +49 231 9051 247Fax: +49 231 9051 195mail to: [email protected]