1

Demographic Dynamics

and Labour Force

S Irudaya Rajan

Udaya S Mishra

Draft Thematic Paper 1

2

This is a draft thematic paper. It was prepared by Prof. S.Irudaya Rajan and Udaya.S.Mishra from Centre for Development Studies. The views expressed herein are those of its author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the ILO. May 2018

3

Contents

1. Abstract …………………………………………………………………. 4

2. Introduction …………………………………………………………….. 5

3. Population Size and Growth …………………………………………… 6

4. Examining the half-century trend in age-sex composition …………… 7

5. Verifying Sex composition of the Population: Trends in Age specific

sex ratios, the myth of feminine sex ratios in Kerala …………………. 8

6. Changing structure of marital status composition …………………… 9

7. The Youthness lost in Kerala’s Population and its workers …………. 10

8. Dependency structure and duration of working years ………….......... 11

9. Household size and composition in Transition ……………………....... 12

10. Implications and future prospects ……………………………………… 13

11. Bibliography ……………………………………………………………… 14

4

1. Abstract

Kerala has a distinct age structure of populace on account of the dramatic changes in the three

demographic variables––fertility, mortality and mobility, over the last six decades. The state has

witnessed its demographic changes since 1961.There was 21 per cent population increase during

the 1961-71 inter-censal period which has reduced to just 5 per cent increase during 2001-2011

inter-censal period and our projections indicate that Kerala is expected to experience a negative

population growth rate after 2026. Thus, there has been a consistent decline in growth rates of

population implying a changing shape of the age structure.

The shrinking share of child population is the result of the fastest decline of fertility among

couples in Kerala since 1960, which has touched the below replacement level in 1987 and has

advanced further with the reported total fertility rate of 1.4 in 2016. The consequence of such a

rapid transition is reflected in the proportion of children in Kerala reaching 23.4 per cent as of

2011 from 42.6 per cent in 1961, which amounts to about 45per cent decline in 50 years. This is

accompanied with a decline in infant mortality rate from a level of 80 in 1960s to 6 in 2017; a

decline of almost 10 times which resulted in the unprecedented increase in life expectancy for

both males and males – reaching 72 for males and 78 for females in Kerala. The net result is the

rising share of elderly population from 5.8 per cent in 1961 to 12.6 per cent in 2011; about 54 per

cent increase.

Along with this transition on both ends of the age structure, the share of working age population

depicts a shift from 51.5 per cent in 1961 to 64.0 in 2011. However, this shift was sharper during

1971-1981 with 2.5 per cent increase, termed as realization of demographic dividend, in the state

which has gradually slowed down to1.2 per cent increase during 1991-2001 and just 0.6 per cent

increase in the latest decade of 2001-11 with a prospect for further decline in the near future. If

we characterise the working age population, the migration prone age group of 15-29 accounted

for 47.7 per cent of the labour force in 1961, rising to a maximum of 52.7 per cent in 1981 and

declined continuously to reach 36.9 per cent in 2011. Kerala’s demographic dividend seems to

have not benefitted the State’s economy directly due to its high unemployment but in turn it

pushed the unemployed and under-employed to move out both internally with India and

externally, outside India. Since 1971, Kerala was referred to as money order economy only to be

replaced later with remittance led economy based on currently remittances alone contributing

equivalent to 36 per cent of the state income.

The changing demographics of the state are reflected in the median age of population shifting

from 19 years in 1961 to 31 years in 2011. This need not to be read merely as aging of state’s

population but aging of the work force as well, which will be older when compared to the past.

The sustained below replacement level of fertility along with large scale international migration,

closing of the demographic dividend as well as aging of population has prompted large-scale in-

migration to the state in recent times basically to replace the migrant labour from Kerala,

otherwise termed as replacement migration. Such replacement labour migration to the state needs

to be sustained with appropriate policies in place for a smooth functioning of the domestic

economy. The current and prospective demography of Kerala therefore remains vital for designing

policies and programmes in the state particularly with regard to labour and employment followed

by social security and welfare.

5

2. Introduction

The age structure of human populations is shaped by three vital components––fertility, mortality and

migration. As conceptualised in the theory of demographic transition, the interactions between the

fertility and mortality levels results in the evolving age structure, in the context of changing fertility

and mortality regimes. With advances in the process of demographic transition i.e. from a high-high

to a low-low fertility and mortality, the age pyramid reverses from a wider base to a narrower one

along with a wider top in place of a narrower top. Such a transformation, as witnessed in recent times,

is not merely conditioned by fertility and mortality alone but migration as well.

There is a greater mobility across regions particularly from less developed to more developed regions.

Such mobility significantly shapes the age structure of regions following the saturation of transition

in fertility and mortality levels. The changing age structure therefore is not only dictated by the

interaction between fertility and mortality levels but also by the increasing mobility in recent times.

Apart from population size, its structure has been of greater interest in recent times given the discourse

on demographic dividend and active ageing of population.

On this account, it becomes pertinent to verify the same in a state like Kerala which is said to be a

front runner in terms of demographic transition and is uniquely placed in terms of a long history of

migration. Kerala occupies 1.2 percent of the total area of India and accounts for 2.8 percent of the

India’s population as per the 2011census. The population of Kerala has almost doubled in2011 since

its formation as a State in 1956 (Rajan and Sunitha, 2018). It has 8th place among the most densely

populated states and union territories of India (860 persons per square kilometer) which witnessed

the highest increase in the inter-census period 1961-1971 from 435 to 549.

Further, the state has experienced rapid urbanization over time with 2011 census reporting almost

equal share of rural and urban areas (rural – 52.3 per cent and urban – 47.7per cent with an annual

exponential growth rate of 6.6 per cent). High literacy, especially among females, and the political

leadership committed to social welfare, individualism and greater utilization of public services has

helped the region attain better levels of social welfare. These can be the probable reasons for the low

levels of mortality and fertility in the state. Kerala's population more than doubled between 1951 and

1991 (adding 15.6 million people to reach a total of 29.1 million residents in 1991), the population

stood at 31.8 million by 2001 and 33.3 million in 2011.

As regards population count, there was a noticeable increase during 1961-1971 periods among males

and females. The next decade showed a drastic decline in male population compared to the population

of females. Since 1971, the rate of annual population growth has been declining (Bhat and Rajan,

1990; Zachariah and Rajan, 1997) and in 2011, the growth rate for males was 0.35 per cent per year

as against the same for females being 0.60 per cent per year with an overall growth of 0.48 per cent

per year. The shrinking growth rate of population is the result of rapid transition in levels of fertility

and mortality. However, the differential growth between sexes is undoubtedly due to male centric

mobility of the population and the undisputed favourable sex ratio in Kerala also a result of large-

scale male migration (Zachariah, Mathew and Rajan, 2003). The transformation in the social and

health sectors in Kerala has made a revealing impact on reduced fertility levels and survivorship gains

which has led to the imbalance of the population age structure. Such imbalance is in terms of

consistent reduction in share of the young and an increase in the share of the aged. In other words,

these changes impacted on the age structure of the population.

6

3. Population Size and Growth

Over the last 120 years, Kerala has held a unique position among Indian states with respect to the sex

ratio which has been favourable to females, as per the data provided by the Indian censuses. However,

this is being questioned in the light of large scale international migration from Kerala (Zachariah,

Mathew and Rajan, 2001a; 2001b; 2003; Zachariah and Rajan, 2007). In 1901, there were 4 more

females to 1000 males whereas in 2011 there were 84 more females to 1000 males. The large

difference is attributed to both higher life expectancies among females (Bhat and Rajan, 1990) and

larger international migration among males (Zachariah and Rajan, 2008; 2012)

Table 1: Population Size Growth and Net Migration Rate, 1901-2011

Year Male Female Total Sex

Ratio

Annual

Exponential

Growth Rate

Natural

Increase

Net

Migration

Rate

1901 3191466 3204796 6396262 1004 -- -- --

1911 3559425 3588248 7147673 1008 1.1 1.08 0.03

1921 3879458 3922669 7802127 1011 0.9 0.84 0.04

1931 4702951 4804099 9507050 1022 2.0 1.83 0.15

1941 5443296 5588245 11031541 1027 1.5 1.75 -0.26

1951 6681901 6867217 13549118 1028 2.1 2.28 -0.22

1961 8361927 8541788 16903715 1022 2.2 2.69 -0.48

1971 10587851 10759524 21347375 1016 2.3 2.47 -0.14

1981 12527767 12925913 25453680 1032 1.8 1.96 -0.20

1991 14288995 14809523 29098518 1036 1.3 1.63 -0.29

2001 15468600 16372800 31841400 1058 0.9 1.20 -0.30

2011 16027412 17378649 33406061 1084 0.5 0.82 -0.34 Source: Calculated from Various Censuses 1901-2011, Registrar General of India.

The year 1971 has been a turning point for Kerala. The annual exponential growth has been coming

down along with natural increases in population which is below the national average. Kerala strictly

followed population policies which were created as part of the family welfare policy. It encouraged

small families, higher age of marriage, female education, reduction of birth and death rate, improved

child health care and vaccination programmes along with other social reforms. As a result, there has

been an increase in the adult literacy rate, life expectancy and a reduction in infant mortality and

fertility rates.

With regard to migration, until 1940, Kerala was in-migration state and since then Kerala has been

experiencing net out-migration reflected in the negative sign, first due to internal migration and later

due to international migration. If the current flow of in-migration to Kerala continues for some years,

Kerala will reach its earlier position of gaining through migration.

7

4. Examining the half-century trend in age-sex composition of the State’s population

On verifying the age-sex composition of the state’s population over the last half century, it is apparent

that age specific growth rates too declined in keeping with the overall population growth rate except

in the age group 60+. (Bhat and Rajan, 1990) Not only declining growth rates but also negative growth

rates in the age group (0-14) is noticed during last three decades that seems to spill over to the ages

15-19 and 20-24 as well during the recent decades (Table 2). Further, age specific growth rates among

males in ages 30-39 is negative during the period 2001-11in contrast with their female counterparts.

This visible pattern of shrinking or negative growth rates are more among the male population in the

state but not in case of female population. In fact, females’ population seem to be rising in its share

which is otherwise depicted in the feminine sex ratio in the state.

Table 2: Overall growth rate and Age Specific Growth Rate of Population by Sex,

Kerala, 1961-2011

Male 0-14 15-19 20-29 30-39 40-59 60+ Total

1961-1971 1.75 4.91 2.47 1.57 2.78 2.91 2.36

1971-1981 0.35 2.45 3.20 1.98 1.80 3.50 1.68

1981-1991 -0.25 0.19 1.91 3.38 2.08 2.84 1.29

1991-2001 -0.37 0.12 0.00 1.28 2.77 2.20 0.81

2001-2011 -0.58 -1.11 -0.90 -0.22 2.34 2.38 0.35

Female

1961-1971 1.78 4.88 1.85 1.96 2.56 3.02 2.31

1971-1981 0.34 2.59 3.44 1.68 2.22 3.76 1.83

1981-1991 -0.32 -0.10 2.16 3.23 2.14 3.06 1.34

1991-2001 -0.46 -0.34 -0.01 2.31 2.87 2.96 1.02

2001-2011 -0.57 -1.57 -0.92 0.38 3.02 2.21 0.59

Total

1961-1971 1.76 4.89 2.15 1.77 2.67 2.97 2.34

1971-1981 0.35 2.52 3.32 1.83 2.01 3.64 1.76

1981-1991 -0.29 0.04 2.04 3.31 2.11 2.96 1.31

1991-2001 -0.41 -0.12 -0.01 1.81 2.82 2.62 0.92

2001-2011 -0.58 -1.34 -0.91 0.10 2.69 2.29 0.48 Source: Calculated from Various Censuses 1961-2011, Registrar General of India.

The age pyramid depicts the population structure of the state and its changing profile during the period

between 1961 and 2011 (Figure 1). The base of the population has narrowed with its share shifting

from 15 per cent to 7 per cent. At the same time, narrowing of the base of the population pyramid

continues till the age of 29 depicting a consistent decline in fertility during last thirty years while

survivors of the births prior to thirty years in the past contribute to broadening of the pyramid towards

the top. Thus the pyramid shaped population is gradually getting shortened in its base and broaden

towards its apex, shaped as a barrel over the period.

8

Figure1: Change in the Age Pyramid, Kerala, 1961 and 2011

5. Verifying Sex composition of the Population: Trends in Age specific sex ratios, the myth of

feminine sex ratios in Kerala

The feminine sex ratio of the state has always been a distinct feature, since long. Historically, too,

Kerala has had a favourable sex ratio for women (Sardamoni, 1994). The feminine sex ratio in the

state is influenced by female survivorships at later ages and out-migration of young males in search

of employment at adult ages. With increasing age, this ratio seems to be more and more favourable

to women in the state. Such an observation can very well be observed based on an age-cumulative

sex ratio of the state’s population (See Figure. 2). It can be assessed that masculine sex ratio is

maintained till the age of 24 years in 2011 which used to be till the age of 19 years in 1961. Besides,

it is also interesting to observe the extent of femininity in sex ratio over the ages during last two

decades i.e. 1991-2011 which is distinctly far from what was observed till 1991. The age at which

shifts in feminine sex ratio takes place becomes important, signifying male mobility beyond that age.

Departures in the extent of feminine sex ratio at later ages could also be to a certain extent owing to

differential longevity between sexes.

Figure 2: Age Specific Sex Ratio, Kerala, 1961-2011

Source: Calculated from Various Censuses 1961-2011, Registrar General of India.

20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20

0-4 5-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79

80+

1961-Female 1961-Male

2011 -Female 2011 -Male

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

1060

1080

0-4

0-9

0-1

4

0-1

9

0-2

4

0-2

9

0-3

4

0-3

9

0-4

4

0-4

9

0-5

4

0-5

9

0-6

4

0-6

9

0-7

4

0-7

9

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

9

6. Changing structure of marital status composition

The distribution of marital status is another pertinent aspect of demographic assessment in the sense

that demographic changes prompt a slow and silent transformation in the marital structure of the

population. An upward shift in the age at marriage of females is evident from 86.7 per cent single

women in the age of 15-19 years as of 2011 census. About 31 per cent females who are married fall

between the age group of 18 to 19 years, whereas there are a higher proportion of males married

between the age group of 24 to 25 years (Rajan and Aliyar 2004; Rajan and Sunitha, 2018). Men in

Kerala married at the average age of 28.7 years compared to women who married at the age of 21.7

years as per estimates based on 2011 Census. Age at marriage of women seems to stabilise at age 22

years, over the period, which was 22.3 years in 1991, falling slightly to 21.7 years in 2011 (Bhagat,

2016). On the other hand, the mean age at marriage of men increased from 27.7 years in 1991 to 28

years in 2001 and 28.7 years in 2011. Thus the mean age for marriage of women is falling, whereas,

for men it is going upward. The highly educated men and women postponed their marriages to late

twenties (Rajan and Sunitha, 2018). After the age group 30-39 the number of singles is almost near

to zero (Figure 3). More members of male population are remaining single than female population.

Members of the female population get settled by the age of 30-34 while male population get married

and settled by 35 years. Most members of female population stay back in Kerala while males migrate

in search of employment. Marriage of the male members of the population gets postponed and they

remain single longer than women (Figure 4).

Figure 3: Proportion of Single by Age and Sex, 2011

Source: Calculated from Census 2011, Registrar General of India.

Figure 4: Changing Structure of Marital Status by Age and Sex, 2011

Source: Same as Figure 3

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Males

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Pe

r ce

nt

Married MalesWidowed/Divorced/Separated MalesMarried FemalesWidowed/Divorced/Separated Females

10

7. The Youthness lost in Kerala’s Population and its workers

Any population structure is commonly designated as young or old based on the median age of the

population where an upward shift in the median age of the population makes the population older.

Alternatively, this phenomenon is verified in terms of share of child, youth and old population. In this

regard one can very well observe that the proportion of children to the total population is decreasing

in the state over the period. In terms of the median age of the population computed based on the 2011

census data, the median age of population of Kerala is 31 years with the same being 30 years for

males and 32 years for females. This changing age structure of the state of Kerala poses a challenge

in terms of an older population with a rising dependency ratios. The shift in median age of the

population (i.e. the age that divides the population counts into two equal halves) is found to be about

12 years older, with the same being 19 years in 1961 which has reached 31 years in 2011. Similar

inspection in terms of age-specific share in the total population indicates that the share of population

in the ages (0-4) has declined from 15 percent in 1961 to 7 in2011. In fact, a holistic reading of the

age structure of the population as depicted in Figure 5 brings to light the youthfulness of population

lost during last half a century. The cumulative share of the population at any age has a declining trend

over time. Such a decline seems to be moderate during 1961-91 but is stiff during 1991-2011. A

critical reading of the figure 5 below reflects one unique feature that has less to do with declining

fertility level but more with mobility. Although there is near equivalence in the share of the child

population between 1991 and 2011, the cumulative share at advanced ages shows a wider gap between

1991 and 2011. Such a depiction undoubtedly confirms the youthfulness lost in Kerala’s population

which is more pronounced in recent times than in the past. In fact, it is not the quantum of population

but their distribution over the ages which are indicative of population mobility in working ages.

Figure 5: Degree of Youngness Lost, 1961,1991 and 2011

Source: Same as Fig.1

Apart from the youthfulness lost in State’s population as depicted in Figure 5, it has a bearing on

working age population not merely in its count but in its composition. A clear pattern is that the state’s

working (age 15-59) population is increasing with a diminishing growth rate over the period. This

decline is more among males compared to their female counterparts. This observation again hints

towards male migration (both internal and international) in working ages (Figure 6).

The census figures pointed out that Kerala has the highest literacy rate in India and there is no

significant gap between the male and female literacy. Females are more educated than males in

graduation and above levels. However, their work participation rate is very low compared to their

male counterparts. On the other hand the growth rate of female work participation is increasing over

the period compared to male work participation. About half of the population among the total labour

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

0-4

5-9

10

-14

15

-19

20

-24

25

-29

30

-34

35

-39

40

-44

45

-49

50

-54

55

-59

60

-64

65

-69

70

-74

75

-79

80

+

Cu

mu

lati

ve F

regu

en

cy

Cu

mu

lati

ve P

erc

en

tage

2011

1991

1961

11

force was unemployed in 2011 (Rajan and Sunitha 2018). As per the 5th Annual Employment-

Unemployment Survey 2015-16 conducted by Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of

India, Kerala has the highest unemployment rate of 12.5 as against the all India level of 5 per cent.

Figure 6: Exponential Growth Rate of Working Age Population

Source: Same as Fig.1

Migration seems to be playing a positive role in keeping unemployment levels in check in the state.

The Kerala Migration Survey, as early as 1998, noted that the unemployment rate in Kerala fell by

about 3 per cent due to migration (Zachariah, Mathew and Rajan, 2000). In a study, Zachariah and

Rajan (2012) have concluded, “Had there been no migration, the unemployment rate in Kerala would

have been 16 per 100 in the labour force. With the extent of migration that took place, the actual

unemployment rate was only 10.5”.

8. Dependency structure and duration of working years in Kerala’s Population

The dependency of total children in the age group 0-4 years up on the males and females of age

between 20 and 29 years is described in table 3.For 100 male youths, 97 more children were

dependent whereas for 100 female youth 75 more children were dependent in 1961.The number of

children, of the age group 0-4 years, is decreasing after 2001while the youth, 20-29 years, is

decreasing after 1991. As the dependency ratio increases the number of productive youth will

decrease. Here, compared to child dependency on females, the dependency on males shows a higher

ratio. So the number of male youth in this age group is less compared to their female counterparts.

Table 3: Child Dependency (0-4 years) among Youth (20-29 years)

0-4/20-29 Male Female

1961 197.0 175.2

1971 173.9 164.6

1981 120.3 111.2

1991 97.3 87.8

2001 101.0 91.2

2011 98.0 88.7

Source: Same as Table.2

The retirement age in the state services is 56 years in Kerala. Considering this age as the service limit

to the main workers of Kerala, the duration of service will be varying from 8 to 39 years for the

current labour force. Compared to males, the main workers among 35-49 years included more among

females (Table 4).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Male

Female

12

Table 4: Duration of Working Years of Main Workers in Kerala, 2011

Age Male Female

Duration of

Working Years

15-19 1.5 1.3 39-43

20-24 8.1 6.5 34-38

25-29 13.2 10.7 29-33

30-34 14.0 13.1 24-28

35-39 14.9 17.8 19-23

40-49 28.2 32.5 9-18

50-59 20.0 18.0 0-8

9. Household size and composition in Transition

Demographic assessment of a population need not be limited to individuals but should also account

for household attributes. The women limit their desirable number of children to one or two compared

to that in the past with number of children exceeding four and above (Bhat and Rajan, 1990; Zachariah

et.al, 1994). Given the decline in fertility levels and its composition within the reproductive span,

there is an obvious transformation of household composition of individuals. Table 5 indicates the

skewed composition of fertility below thirty years of age which has risen to four fifth of the total

fertility. Hence it will result in some imbalanced representation of children in households.

The immediate consequence of low fertility levels has been in terms of reduced average household

size. This was reportedly 4.3 in Kerala according to NFHS 2006-06. In addition, according to NFHS

-3, 54.8 per cent households were nuclear families in 2005-06 and 25 per cent had a female headship.

According to KMS 2016, 26.3 per cent households were without females in the reproductive age

group and 85.6 per cent households had no children under five year age.

Table 5: Share of Fertility among Females of age < 30 and >30 years

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2013

Total < 30 59.5 69.8 81.2 83.1 80.5 80.0

>=30 40.5 30.2 18.8 16.9 19.5 20.0

Rural < 30 58.7 68.9 81.3 83.6 81.1 79.5

>=30 41.3 31.1 18.7 16.4 18.9 20.5

Urban < 30 65.2 75.7 80.9 81.6 78.8 81.6

>=30 34.8 24.3 19.1 18.4 21.2 18.4

Source: Sample Registration System, Registrar General of India

Besides nucleation of Kerala households along with reduction in average HH size, there are other

emerging features with bearing on economy and society. Owing to mobility and aging of population,

it becomes pertinent to examine these features in detail. For instance, One quarter of the households

are all-male HH and half of them are with single women. Similarly, 85.6 per cent of the households

are without children below four years of age. About 2.7 per cent children of age less than 18 years

were not living with their parents, either died or not known. Among the male children this percentage

was 2.5 and that of females was 2.9 (DLHS – 4). In KMS 2016, 1.3 per cent households included

children less than five year age without mother.

13

Table 6: Household Size in Kerala 2005-06 and 2016

NFHS -3 KMS 2016

1 0.3 3.9

2 3.8 15.0

3 12.7 17.6

4 27.3 23.8

5 20.1 19.9

6 12.7 10.7

7+ 23.2 9.0

Total 100.0 100.0

Source: Calculated from NFHS – 3 data and Kerala Migration Survey 2016 data

Table 7: Household with/without Children under five and Women of Reproductive Age

Group (18-49 years), KMS 2016

No

Children One Two

Three or

More

HH with/

without Women

No Women 30.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 26.2

One 49.6 66.7 44.1 11.1 51.3

Two 16.5 26.8 38.3 44.4 18.3

Three or More 3.3 5.9 17.0 44.4 4.1

HH with/without

Children 85.6 11.6 2.4 0.4 100.0

Source: Calculated from Kerala Migration Survey 2016 data

According to KMS 2016, 26.2 per cent households had no women of reproductive ages between 18

and 49 years and 30.5 per cent households had neither women of reproductive ages nor children under

five. Among the households with one eligible woman, 15.1 per cent households had one child, while

only 2.0 per cent have two children.

10. Implications and future prospects

The demographic imbalance in the state both in terms of the age sex structure change and composition

of households is of definite concern. The closing of the demographic dividend coupled with the large

scale of emigration of the work force needs replacement which has already begun (large scale in-

migration to Kerala) but needs to be sustained. Such migration creates void in households without

adult males which has its own implication towards transformed role of women and children. As regard

dependence, the state has one elderly for every two children which will soon become worse with

lowering of fertility levels. Absence of males and remittance dependence needs attention, given the

need for care-givers for the emerging volume of elderly in future. Every five working Keralites may

have to take care of one elderly person in 2011.As the longevity increases, the major challenge would

be regarding the care of the elderly (Rajan and Balagopal, 2017). Demographic and economic changes

accompanied by enhanced migration of people in search of better and quality employment, results in

the elderly being left behind. The living arrangement pattern of the elderly are expected to undergo

rapid changes during this period.

14

11. Bibliography

Ali Mehdi and S Irudaya Rajan (eds). 2018. Health of the Nation: India Health Report 2018. Oxford

University Press (forthcoming)

Bhagat R.B. 2016. The Practice of Early Marriages among Females in India: Persistence and Change.

International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) working paper No. 10.

Bhat P.N. Mari, and S. Irudaya Rajan 1990. Demographic Transition in Kerala Revisited. Economic

and Political Weekly, Vol. 25 (35-36): 957-80.

Guilmoto, C.Z and S Irudaya Rajan. 2001 Spatial Patterns of Fertility Transition in Indian Districts.

Population and Development Review, Volume 27, No.4, Pp.713-38.

Guilmoto, C.Z and S Irudaya Rajan. 2002. District Level Estimates of Fertility from India’s 2001 Census.

Economic and Political Weekly, Volume XXXVII, No.7, Pp.665-672.

Guilmoto, C.Z and S Irudaya Rajan. (eds). 2005. Fertility Change in South India. Sage Publications.

New Delhi.

Guilmoto, C.Z and S Irudaya Rajan. 2013. Fertility at the District Level in India: Lessons from the

2011Census. Economic and Political Weekly, Volume. XLVIII,N0.23, June 8,Pp. 59-70.

Irudaya Rajan, S, U S Mishra and P S Sarma. 1999. India's Elderly: Burden or Challenge? Sage

Publications. New Delhi.

Irudaya Rajan, S and U S Mishra. 1997. Kerala: Restructuring Welfare Programs - Emerging Trends.

Economic and Political Weekly, Volume XXXII, No 6, February 8 1997, Pp. 261-63.

Irudaya Rajan, S and P Mohanachandran. 1999. Estimating Infant Mortality in Kerala. Economic and

Political Weekly, Volume XXXIV, No 12, March 20-26, Pp. 713-716.

Irudaya Rajan, S. 2005. District Level Fertility Estimates for Hindus and Muslims. Economic and

Political Weekly, Volume XL, No.5, January 29 2005, Pp.437-446.

Irudaya Rajan, S and K.C.Zachariah. (eds). 2012. Kerala’s Demographic Future: Issues and Policy

Options. Academic Foundation, New Delhi.

Irudaya Rajan, S and K C Zachariah. 1998. Long Term Implications of Low Fertility in Kerala. Asia

Pacific Population Journal, Volume. 13, No 3, September, Pp. 41-66.

Irudaya Rajan S. and Gayathri Balagopal (eds). 2017. Elderly Care in India: Societal and State

Responses. Springer.

Irudaya Rajan, S and Sabu Aliyar. 2004. Demographic Change in Kerala in the 1990s and Beyond in

Chapter 3, Pp.61-61 in Baroda A Prakash (ed). Kerala’s Economic Development: Performance and

Problems in the Post-Liberation Period. Sage Publications. New Delhi.

Irudaya Rajan, S. 1989. Aging in Kerala: One More Population Problem? Asia-Pacific Population

Journal, Vol 4, No 2, June Pp.19-48.

15

Irudaya Rajan S. and Sunitha S. (2018). Demographic Change in Kerala, Chapter 3 in the book, B.A.

Prakash and Jerry Alwin (Eds.) (2018). Kerala’s Economy Since 2000: Emerging Issues. Sage

Publications.

Liebig, Phoebe S and S Irudaya Rajan. (eds) 2003. An Aging India: Perspectives, Prospects, and Policies.

Routledge.

Praveen Nangia, Sunita Kishor, P S Nair, D Radha Devi, S Irudaya Rajan and Rajeshri Chitanand. 2001.

National Family Health Survey India 1998-99, Kerala. International Institute for Population Sciences

and ORC Macro, 2001.

Sardamoni, K.1994. Women, Kerala and Some Development Issues. Economic and Political Weekly,

Vol 29, No 9, pp 501-09.

Zachariah, K.C., S. Irudaya Rajan, P.S. Sarma, K. Navaneethan, P.S.G. Nair, and U.S. Mishra. 1994.

Demographic Transition in Kerala in the 1980’s, Monograph series, Centre for Development Studies,

Thiruvananthapuram.

Zachariah K.C. and Irudaya Rajan S (eds.). 1997. Kerala’s Demographic Transition: Determinants

and Consequences. Sage Publications India, New Delhi.

Zachariah, K.C, E T Mathew and S Irudaya Rajan. 2001. Impact of Migration on Kerala's Economy and

Society. International Migration, Volume 39. No.1, Pp. 63-88.

Zachariah, K.C, E T Mathew and S Irudaya Rajan. 2001. Social, Economic and Demographic

Consequences of Migration in Kerala. International Migration, Volume 39. No.2, Pp. 43-72.

Zachariah K. C., E. T. Mathew and S. Irudaya Rajan. 2003. Dynamics of Migration in Kerala:

Determinants, Differentials and Consequences. Orient Longman Private Limited.

Zachariah K. C. and S Irudaya Rajan. 2007. Migration, Remittances and Employment: Short-term

Trends and Long term Implications. Centre for Development Studies Thiruvananthapuram, Working

Paper No.395

Zachariah K.C. and S Irudaya Rajan. 2008. Costs of Basic Services in Kerala, 2007: Education,

Health, Childbirth and Finance (Loans). Centre for Development Studies Thiruvananthapuram,

Working Paper No.406.

Zachariah, K. C. and S Irudaya Rajan 2012: A Decade of Kerala’s Gulf Connection, Orient

Blackswan, Hyderabad.

16

WORK IN FREEDOM: ILO-DFID Partnership Programme on Fair Recruitment and Decent Work for Women Migrant Workers in South Asia and the Middle East

The Work in Freedom is an integrated programme to support mobility by choice among women and girls

from destination countries (India, Bangladesh and Nepal) to decent jobs with safety and dignity of workers

in destination countries (India, Lebanon and Jordan) through fair recruitment processes.

This thematic paper has been prepared by Centre for Development Studies, Kerala, India from support of the

ILO’s Work in Freedom Programme. The views expressed are that of the authors, and not necessarily reflect

the views of the ILO.